(Courtesy: el Gordo)
The second amendment to the Nepal’s interim constitution permits the removal of the monarchy (prior to CA polls), with 2/3rd majority if the monarchy is found to be “meddling” in the country’s politics. The same amendment also permits a vote of no-confidence to be tabled on the Prime Minister (with 1/4th support) and passed with 2/3rd majority.
There were only two republicans in parliament who seem to have understood the ramifications of the passage of this bill and voted against it. The rest of the “sheep” followed the “herd” causing overwhelming joy within the ranks of the pro-republic portion of the Nepali population. But this joy is certain to meet its short lived fate as the practical implications of the second amendment, slowly set in.
Maoist demand for a republic before CA polls, nullified
From a strategic point of view, the second amendment to the interim parliament has given the monarchy longevity – at least till the constituent assembly polls are held. Any talk of removing the Monarchy before the CA elections is now effectively quashed.
For the Maoists, this is a body blow of biblical proportions. They are desperately in need of rationale to justify their 12 year murder spree; killings, that ring fresh in the minds of voters specially in parts of Nepal the Maoists claim to be their strong-holds.
There is no mystery behind the growing anti-Maoist fervor in places such as Rukkum, Rolpa, Sallyan, Jajarkot and Pyuthan. The Maoists are no longer welcome in their base-areas and should free and fair elections be held, it is almost certain that the Maoists will lose.
Every day the abolition of the institution of monarchy is delayed is a day less for the Maoists to fully legitimize their cause. It is also a day more for republican ideologues to think twice because there is no certainty that CA elections will vote the monarchy out.
The Maoists’ fear a CA poll result that legitimizes the monarchy more than anything else because such an outcome will cause the Maoist “revolution” to self-combust from its very core. Survival of the monarchy in any form will be a death-blow to the Maoist rationale, a situation the Maoists are bound to avoid at any cost.
Without fully realizing it, the Maoist MPs just voted themselves one step closer to an end-result that could possibly bring the Moist house of cards, crashing down.
Space for a democratic alliance, created
With the current level of leftist representation in the interim parliament, the impetus for a democratic alliance is now cemented. Whether it be an official alliance or an understood voting pattern, the need for self-preservation through a platform that distinguishes communists from democratic forces has been created by the second amendment. This platform is the monarchy.
By creating a system that can both eliminate the monarchy and the Prime Minister with 2/3rd majority, the Nepali Congress has tied its own fate to the fate of the monarchy. For the Maoists, the provision to eliminate the monarchy and then to eliminate Girija Prasad Koirala was too attractive a platform to forego. For non-communist parties, the opportunity to capitalize on the sympathy that the monarchy still retains (up to 40% of the voting population – as evidenced by the latest polling numbers), was an opportunity they could not forego.
The meeting ground for these competing interests is embodied firmly in the second amendment to Nepal’s interim constitution. It is the Maoists’ expectation that the same 2/3rd majority that could potentially eliminate the monarchy would also vote to eliminate the NC leadership in the interim parliament. It is the non-Maoist forces’ hope that the ambiguous nature (“meddling in CA polls”) of the second amendment is sufficiently vague to keep the monarchy intact at least till elections are held.
The net result of these competing interests is as follows: a necessity for the Maoists to start looking for every possible conspiracy to force a vote on the monarchy and a necessity for the non-republican forces to ensure that each conspiracy theory is publicly falsified.
Neither is hard to do but the end result will expose the hollow Maoist agenda for what it is, make the Maoists look increasingly desperate, and without any firm political agenda other than a rabid anti-monarchy stand. The same will make the democratic alliance appear a thousand times more plural, mature and cognizant of due process and the legitimate right of the Nepali people to exercise universal suffrage.
A distinction has been drawn between individuals and the institution
Yet another achievement of the second amendment is that it implicitly draws a line between Gyanendra and Paras, and the institution of monarchy. The conniving and calculated political machine the Nepali Congress is, its leaders have formulated a sound strategy by de-linking the individuals that represent to the monarchy from the institution that is the monarchy.
This is a key distinction that sets the stage for moderate leftists, moderate rightists and the centrist parties to unite. The point of compromise is as clear as day – remove the wildly unpopular Gyanendra and Paras as the faces of the royal institution and allow the sympathies (and affection) that the Nepali people have toward the royal institution, to influence their voting.
Whether Nepal’s leftist ideologues care to admit it or not, there remains ample sympathy for the crown, particularly from lines of patronage that accrue to the liberal King that Birendra was. Additionally, Gyanendra may be ambitions, arrogant and self-deluded, but he is also the single reason why all the discredited politicians (including the Maoists) are in positions of power today. And not only are these miscreants back in power, they are fully legitimized in the eyes of the Nepali population – thanks to Gyanendra.
For persons who comprehend the potency of these ideas, they also understand that the second amendment to the interim constitution firmly sets in motion a compromised outcome (and space) for Nepal’s royal institution. The compromise will include Gyanendra giving up his title of kingship (and Paras renouncing his), in return for the institution of monarchy being allowed continuity through the ballot box.
Once more, this spells distress for the Maoists whose political existence hinges on the removal of the Nepalese monarchy. For moderates on both sides of the fence, an opportunity to compromise (and prove that violent politics does not pay), will prove irresistible.
Conclusion
Prachanda’s claim that conspiracies are abound is true. Only his use of the term confuses the issue. What Prachanda calls “conspiracy” is simply “politics” but since he and his ilk do not understand any political discourse other than their own, Prachanda’s confusion is understandable.
The second amendment to the interim constitution bodes well for a sweeping compromise on the issue of monarchy – it removes the monarchy temporarily as the focal point of all political discourse and guarantees that no party comes to power using the monarchy as its prime stepping stone.
The amendment forces Nepal’s political agents to go to the people with firm political agendas and reform packages of substance. The days of riding a platform that ties overnight development and prosperity to the removal of the monarchy alone, are over.
For better or worse, the second amendment to the interim constitution is also a valuable lesson to the rising stars of Nepal’s political ranks: Radicalism does not yield sustainable change and challenging party lines by adopting others’ agendas, makes one’s position weaker in the long run. The political mantra to sustainable peace in Nepal is simply “compromise, compromise, and more compromise.” There is no room for radical change, the consequences of which are impossible to forecast.
Related Links
Electoral Alliance and the Shifting Political Paradigm in Nepal
http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2007/05/electoral-alliance-and-shifting.html
A Democratic Alliance, Accountable to the People
http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2007/05/democratic-alliance-accountable-to.html
After a Year of "Loktantra" - Is it finally time for a Democratic Alliance?
http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2007/04/after-year-of-loktantra-is-it-finally.html
Hedging Against Nepal's Leadership Crisis
http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2006/09/hedging-against-nepals-leadership.html
Defining the Mainstream
http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2006/06/defining-mainstream.html
10 comments:
Thank you for your views. I enjoyed reading your thoughts.
I thought this site does a good job explaining the amendment and I wanted to borrow their phrasing:
"According to the second amendment bill passed, ouster of the monarch would be possible only if the parliament is able to present evidence that the monarch was trying to disrupt the Constituent Assembly (CA) elections slated for November.
The bill has also provisioned for the removal of the Prime Minister through a no trust motion, which needs to be passed by a two third majority of the 329-member Interim Parliament. The Prime Minister should call the meeting of the parliament within a fortnight if one fourth members of the parliament proposed for the same at the time when the parliamentary is not sitting.
The bill includes the provision of holding parliamentary hearing before appointing the judges of the Supreme Court and ambassadors of Nepal to different countries."
Yes, yes yes!!! Finally! Another person that is able to analyze the impact of the second amendment by examining all the critical issues.
The words of this writing are right on the money.
The one thing that is missing is what the second amendment means for people like Narahari Acharya and Gagan Thapa? If republic vs. non-republic becomes the line where the democratic forces collide with the communists, people from democratic parties who thought they could paly the maoist game are going to be swept away.
As much as I hate to admit it, Girija baje (with India's constant guidance) is about to deliver a killer blow to the Maoists through political ways. And I am all for it!
Some days ago a monument to the victims of communism was unveiled in Washington DC. Some 100 million innocent people have been murdered by communists since the early 20th century. Yet here we are in Nepal in 21st century still pining for communists and communisitic solutions. We have an UNELECTED parliament that has a communist majority in which quite a few of whom have contributed quite nicely to that figure of 100 million murdered. Wake up my citizens least you too begin to add substantially to that 100 million number.
So if anyone is listening, instead of talking about abolishing the monarchy how about a discussion on abolishing communism in all its forms?
As for Girija Koirala, if it hadn't been for his totally incompetent and arrogant attitude and handling of the initial maoists problem in west Nepal, today we would not have been in this situation. We would not have been in this situation had he not bedded and conspired with Madhav Nepal to bring down the prime minister from his own party leading to the dissolution of the parliament and handing over the power to King Gyanendra! We would not have been in this situation had he not thrown out KP Bhattarai faction from the cabinet thus bringing down his own party's government with a majority in parliament and leading to revolving door governments. So I think it is a bit too much for him and his die hard supporters to ask us to trust him now to do the right thing.
Finally the political parties: all of them save the congress of Girija faction and the maoists went into the cabinet under King Gyanendra. Maoists had a back channel to the monarchy through Dhirendra and were contemplating talks with Gyanendra so that they could come to power. So wouldn't you say it is a bit rich for all of them now to call for abolishing the monarchy? This is definitely the mother of all hypocrisies.
Wake up my fellow Nepalis. If you do not then you will be condemned to have Young Criminal League ruling the streets and Old Criminal League ruling the parliament and the cabinet. Let us not have a monument for 101 million murdered by communists.
To those victims of communism the world over, we will not forget you.
I can't wait to see the Bahunist reaction to this.... after all these months of drama, this is what it's all boiling down to and we Nepalis are back to the same spot again.
At least there is peace and if the UN does its job, the Maoists can never again pick up their arms.
Anonymous, quit this bahunist, newarist, limbuist, tamangist stuff. We are Nepalis first and other labels, if any, later. Hate based on ethnicity, social class and language belong to India and not to Nepal.
The only way dust gonna settle is through Armageddon-benefit of doubt on deliverance by SPAM is a pipe dream that is best if not scrutinized any further. To achieve you'd need something solid to stand upon, this SPAM does not have. And all who think Maoist will slowly crumble on other own weight or be a proper mainstream politics force is placing bets on million to one. Read the history, scrutinize their modus operandi, their actual strength, and their devil and blue syndrome with the people, and assumption that they will fall for the trap set by India( read Girja)is like acting novice. They have test the taste of free lunches and perks to let it slide easily. They are not fools unless we falsely it as such.
Lets not be "useful idiots" in line with people like Sundermani Dixit and the gang.
DOA
I don't know where you come up with the newarist and limbuist stuff, but if you still can't admit to the Bahunist phenomenon, then you are way lost (or in support of the Bhunists) friend.
If you can't see the subservience and the structure of the social fabric that Bahunists manipulate to dominate our society, then so be it. Most Bhanunists don't see this, just like Royalists don't see feudalism and Maoists don't see murder.
If new nepal is going to be built, it has to be built on facts and admissions and truth. Not half lies and deception.
Abhi, thanks for the link. It is a good summary.
Baje, you ask a very important question. What will this mean for Nepal's future leaders? Will they ever get a chance to lead or will they be skipped?
I don't know about Narahari but Gagan should not have gone to such extremes. He would be much better positioned had he stuck to moderate lines.
Koirala is a smart bahunist.. he said in public how the monarchy institution can be saved and then he said teh following day that he was misquoted.
But the fact is, Koirala has used his statement to test which way the wind is blowing.
Now, all 40% of votes for the monarchy will go to the Nepali Congress.
He is a smart one, this leader of the bahunists.
Nepal is now at a cross road where day by day it is losing its sovereignty and tearing itself inside out with a little bit help from SPAM.
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