The Mysterious "Environment" and the Bogey of Elections

(Courtesy: Siddhartha Thapa)

It is now becoming increasingly apparent that the government will miss the election deadline for December yet again. Political parties need to urgently asses the law and order situation and consequently chalk out a realistic time table to conduct free and fair elections. As the political deadlock ossifies (due to the failure of the Koirala government to conduct timely elections in June), new sets of political challenges now daunt the interim phase, hampering a smooth transition towards permanent peace and a functioning liberal democracy.

Quintessentially, the political parties need to urgently elaborate and clear any lingering ambiguities with the term “environment”. Although senior leaders belonging to all parties keep thundering that a “conducive environment” is a prerequisite to polls, they fail to clarify their definition of this mysterious environment. On the other hand, the Maoists are adamant regarding holding early elections. However, increased YCL violence and their bullish attitude have proved to go well beyond the influence of the party leadership; the indifference will ultimately lead to a political crisis.

The recent attack on the American ambassador and the stoning of the German ambassador’s car in Kathmandu, demonstrate the inability of the government to protect diplomats. These unfortunate events clearly reflect the actual state of the law and order situation of the country.

Earlier this week, Kantipur, the Nation’s premier media house met with a crisis as the Maoists established yet another trade union within the parameters of a press establishment. Consequently, senior journalists and media houses fear similar repercussions and have concluded that the independence of the press is at stake. They are contemplating a relocation south of the border, as a last resort to safeguard the independence of free press.

Worse still, ordinary citizens remain traumatized by the step up in YCL extortion in all sectors. Even housing colonies in and around Kathmandu Valley have not been spared. Interestingly even Nepali international UN staff have been targeted by the Maoists and have fallen prey to their extortion spree.

Tragically, a large volume of UN staff members of Nepali origin have left Nepal due to insecurity. The political unease created by the rumor that senior Maoist leaders have gone underground and the fact that the Maoist militia still possess a considerable number of sophisticated arms, raises genuine concerns regarding the peace process.

It is comforting to observe that there has been a change in heart in New Delhi, vis-à-vis the transforming political scenario in Nepal. Encouraging is the observation of the positive role India has been playing to bridge the gap between the NC and UML and in tandem, aggressively condemn the increased violence perpetrated by the YCL. At this stage, it will prove foolish to ignore India’s renewed commitment to democratize Nepal. However, India must acknowledge that it had overestimated the Maoist’s commitment to peace time politics in the past.

On the other hand, the international community backed UNMIN, is fast proving to be a disappointment. The failure by Ian Martin to adhere to bi-partisan values from the onset, is now apparent. But more interestingly, as Ian Martin and Lena Sundh cease to protect Maoists interests, it is foreseeable that growing resentment will build against UNMIN, invariably resulting in growing hostility towards UN staff members in Nepal by the Maoists themselves.

Even ordinary citizens can gage that the present peace process is in danger. Koirala is now caught in a catch 22 situation with no viable exit strategy. Therefore, it is imperative that Koirala urgently re-asses the political situation with a broader view.

Sadly, there are no signs indicating that the government will objectively review the law and order situation. Koirala needs to immediately take a strong stand in order to be seen as firm and uncompromising on the law and order situation in the country.

Yet, as the government continues to neglect the deteriorating law and order situation, it becomes apparent the government is only touting the bogey of elections. The consequences of the failure to improve the law and order situation of the country and elections are directly correlated. By October, the political predicament will have taken a clear shape and the failure of Koirala to make gargantuan policy changes in reference to security will have a final word regarding the probability of elections in December – the chances are bleak.

Unfortunately, if Koirala fails to take concrete measures in improving the law and order situation of the country, and as a consequence elections are postponed; the Maoists will opt to launch an armed urban based agitation. The Maoist’s would then be forced to negotiate with either the security forces or other authoritarian institutions for power sharing that will most certainly remove the parliamentary parties out of the equation.

Either way the future of Nepali political is heading towards extremism. Sensing the ability of the Maoist to launch a successful armed urban revolution that could force Koirala out of power; Koirala might come into a closed door agreement with the Maoist through which he would do well to secure his post. In doing this, the fundamentals of the democratic process will be compromised. Therefore, it might make sense to predict that the present parliament will inevitably transcend into a constituent assembly, as an amicable compromise for both the Maoist’s and Koirala.