(Courtesy: Dr. Dolittle)
“The bullet that kills you never takes you between the eyes. It always hits you in the temple.” - Jeff Wacker, EDS Futurist.
Metaphorically speaking, the “bullet” aimed at Nepal’s “temple” is economic in nature whereas the “bullet” that has Nepalis enthralled, is political. Unless Nepal’s Maoist-led government veers away from its populist economic policies and takes concrete measures to hedge against global economic realities, the Nepali nation-sate (its current government, the constitution making process, and the few gains that have been consolidated from the on-going peace process), are at immediate risk.
The highly interconnected nature of the global economy implies that the effect of global trends (both positive and negative) have global implications. The degree of such implications vary in terms of location, timing, duration and intensity, but any suggestion that Nepal is insulated because of its lack of global connectivity is naive and without analytical foundation.
The obvious impact of a global economic slowdown for Nepal will be noticeable reductions in annual remittances. Employees of Nepal’s financial services sector often refer to remittances as the very “lifeblood of the Nepali economy.” Evidence that corroborates such suggestions are well documented and beyond refutation. When mixed with the unregulated growth in Maoist-backed market interventions (specifically through Maoist labor unions), the net result is bound to be amplified negative distortions on the Nepalese economy.
More succinctly, the systematic closure of private Nepali enterprises are eroding the little shielding the Nepali economy has against the global recession. Nepal produces unskilled labor and that’s about it. Nepal’s net exports are negative - the country imports nearly all essential commodities (raw materials, fuels, agricultural goods, etc.). This requires constant access to foreign currency which Nepal had little to begin with and will have even less as foreign discretionary spend goes down and increasingly populist policies crowd out international private investment.
Assuming that Nepal’s Maoist government continues down its populist path, the country is left with two sources of foreign currency (over the short-to-medium-term): that which is generated by Nepali laborers abroad and that which is generated via loans and grants from the international Donor Community. The latter comes at incremental cost to future Nepali generations and the former, is shirking as the lagging effects of the global recession hit Nepal.
To put matters in perspective, less money from abroad means less money in Nepali families’ pockets, less consumption, more unemployment and all the cascading socio-political consequences that follow. The Nepalese economy may not be prone to mortgage-backed securities or complex collateralized debt obligations but fundamentally, the country’s only lucrative enterprise - the financial services sector - runs on variations of collateral backed loans. Examined from this viewpoint, when the means to service existing loans are jeopardized by the unavailability of sustained cash flows, there will be resounding impacts on the country’s only profitable sector - financial services - with networked consequences for every other sector across the Nepalese economy.
As an example, the supply of land in Nepal’s urban centers is limited but this should not fool anyone into thinking that the demand for property is unlimited (or that prices will continue to rise irrespective of the external environment). The Nepali banking sector’s practice of extending loans is based on personal affiliations - credit terms are offered based on who one knows as opposed to any reliable mechanism that reflects creditworthiness. Lending terms often include collateralized assets which in theory can be repossessed by the lending institution. In practice however, re-possession of collateralized assets entails additional costs to the lending institution in terms of contractual enforceability and legal complications over extended time periods. Such complications render the cost of repossession unduly high which ultimately, encourages moral hazard.
So when emerging middle-class families that rely on remittances to service some portion of their mortgages find their cash-flows reduced, Nepal’s financial services sector will be forced to reduce its margins. This means re-forecasted revenue streams, reduced profitability and damper future prospects with feed-back effects on the broader Nepalese economy. Under such circumstances, housing projects, land prices and those who derive sustenance from related sectors will all be negatively impacted.
Nepal’s unregulated stock market is likely to be another victim of the global recession. The story here would be a variation of the same theme - less capital inflow means less discretionary spend for Nepali consumers which in the case of the stock market, means less capital chasing after the same (or more) assets and eventually, deflated or collapsed asset prices. Most private and institutional investors abroad have some capacity (with their respective governments as lenders of the last resort) to absorb and eventually recover from near-collapsed markets. A similar destruction of wealth (although it impacts a miniscule part of the Nepali population directly) would have dire consequences beyond Nepal’s market alone - the very core of the open market system and the applicability of democracy would come into question.
The example of Nepal’s stock market is further complicated by the manner in which insider trading is so engrained within the system. In Nepal, a handful of individuals essentially collude to drive stock prices in a certain direction after which the “herd mentality” takes over. There is hardly any regulation, oversight, or governance over securities fraud so the average middle class Nepali investor is exposed to a lot more risk and a lot less legal recourse, should asset prices rapidly deteriorate.
Given the susceptibilities the Nepali economy is exposed to, the current government must do more to hedge against multiple worst-case scenarios such as the ones described above. Although it is standard practice for low probability, high impact risks to receive reduced priority during decision making processes, according similarly reduced priorities to elevated risks in plain sight is inadvisable.
Nepal’s fragile coalition government and its actors may want to take a step back from dodging the perennial “political bullet” (aimed between its eyes) and allocate slightly more resources to figuring out how to sidestep the imminent “economic bullet” (aimed at its temple). Politics for once should take a backseat to more urgent matters because for the common Nepali, it matters less who is in power and more whether his/her economic future is secure.
Monday, December 29, 2008
Saturday, December 27, 2008
The Idea of a Broader Democratic Alliance
(Courtesty: Siddhartha Thapa)
Introduction
Contrary to popular belief, the main purpose of creating a "broader democratic front" is not to topple the Maoist led government. The idea of establishing a broader democratic front is to prevent a situation that will push the country towards an eventual political confrontation. It is, therefore, important to comprehend the situation under which various leaders have been demanding the early amalgamation of democratic forces and it is equally important to understand the underlying factors and the political compulsions of creating a Broader Democratic Alliance. First, the Maoist party is the largest party in the Constituent Assembly and; the Maoists together with other leftist parties are a majority in the Constituent Assembly. Second, the Maoist party belongs to an extreme revolutionary group who do not believe in the existence of a liberal democratic polity. And lastly, the Maoist party leads a government with arms to defend the subsistence of their extreme communist ideology. It is in this perspective that the idea of a Broader Democratic Front becomes essential if we are to envision the long term survival of a plural, liberal democracy in Nepal.
Other democratic parties, primarily the Nepali Congress do not posses weapons. Organizationally too, the democratic parties stand as weak opponents to the Maoists. Maoist unions, the bellicose and boisterous YCL outfits have succeeded in stalling industrial progress. The YCL continue to intimidate bureaucrats throughout Nepal to work towards their party's interest. Today, all governmental institutions and even the private sector stand as hostage to the institutionalized bullying, terror tactics and to the extreme ideology of the Maoist unions. However, what is most alarming is the fact that almost all government machineries besides the Nepal Army have been rendered non-functional. But more fundamentally, the constitutional, legal, judicial, and the democratic process have begun to crumble under sustained Maoist pressure. In such a situation, all parties that believe in the existence of a plural, liberal democratic order should have engaged in genuine political maneuvers to check mate the Maoists. Unfortunately; that did not happen.
The Idea of a BDA
If the Democratic Front had taken shape and been effective; the Nepali political discourse would present a politically balanced picture. However, the reality today is vastly different; the democratic forces are weak and divided, they lack cohesion organizationally and are a minority in the Constituent Assembly. On the other hand, Nepali Congress, the largest democratic party is weak organizationally and the persistence internal wrangling has further weakened the party. The other democratic parties such as the Madesh based parties and the former RPP's too are scattered and divided across the political spectrum. The weak presentation of the democratic forces is having a negative impact on the transitional politics of New Nepal. A sense of hopelessness and dejection is slowly taking over the minds of the people who have been subjugated to continued Maoist brutality. The long term absence of a tolerant liberal democratic alternative will create disenchantment with the democratic parties in the long run.
Therefore, in this critical stage, it is necessary for the democratic parties to forge an alliance. In fact, the recent attacks on Himal media and the free press reveal these two political certainties. It is important to understand that time is indeed running out as there is no real sustainable alternative to the democratic front. However, the Maoists are making concerted efforts to foil the creation of a democratic front. Individuals within the Nepali Congress such as Ramchandra Poudel, who is reportedly close to the Maoists, is being used by the Maoists, to thwart the creation of a democratic front. Other than Poudel there are other leaders within the Nepali Congress ranks who are opportunists and are more eager to join the Maoist led government than to oppose the Maoist on principle political issues. For such opportunist leaders, the existence of a democratic front is irrelevant as they are neither loyal to the Nepali Congress, nor do they have strong conviction to envision a truly democratic Nepal.
On a more hopeful note the existence of a democratic front will create positive political equilibrium as it will give people the courage to resist the Maoist's totalitarian views. But more importantly, the existence of a democratic front will be crucial to politically balance the Maoists and to contain them within a democratic paradigm.
Regional Implications
The growing Chinese influence in Nepal will only work towards the benefit of leftist forces. Indian foreign policy vis a vis Nepal seems to have been guided by two objectives: the removal of the institution of monarchy and the creation of strong democratic base in the Madesh to secure their borders fearing possible nexus between the Maoists in Nepal and India. However, the Indian experiment in the Madesh has failed. The recent revelation that some Mumbai attackers were in Nepal and that the Chinese had sent in miscellaneous funds for the Maoist party to use as military funds should be a worrying sign for the Indian establishment. Increasing Chinese activity and the ISI's recent exercises in Nepal all indicate that Nepali territory is being used against India. China's active presence in Nepal coinciding with a Maoist led government in Nepal will have a long term impact on India's national security. India's opposition to Islamic terrorism but her silence towards political terrorism can in no way help her deal with her security qualms – Maoist insurgency is political terrorism. The Maoist menace in South Asia today stands as the biggest challenge to India's national security. The continuance of Maoist dominance in the Nepali polity arena has augured well for facilitating increased Chinese and ISI activity in Nepal against India.
It is important to note that within the India political context, the experiment of both NDA and UPA has worked well in politically balancing two opposing ideological camps within the democratic framework. The Indian experiment has proved that such alliances have long term impacts on the political structure of a country and that it is sustainable too if the alliance is constructed on a consistent ideological platform. The formation of a democratic alliance in Nepal will help India neutralize anti-Indian elements that are a threat to both India and Nepal's long term security concerns. The formation of a democratic alliance will be most effective in repulsing increasing Chinese and ISI activity in Nepal.
Conclusion
The mere indulgence in speeches, nauseating use of rhetoric, issuing of statements, cannot be viewed as an effective strategy in confronting the Maoists. Democratic institutions and organizations need to be strengthened in response to the challenge meted out by the Maoists
All parties that envision the survival of a democratic polity must come together putting aside their prejudices of the past against each other. This is the only hope and the real alternative that the democratic parties can wield to counter the Maoists, their ideology and their domestic and international backers. The Nepali Congress must understand that they alone cannot counter the Maoists. The BDA needs the support of other democratic parties too. The survival of democracy in Nepal will be determined by the ability of the Nepali Congress and the other democratic parties to work together against the Maoist, other authoritarian forces and anti-nationalistic fronts. Only the unity and the collaboration amongst the democratic parties can help Nepal overcome the challenges posed by the Maoists who are keen on establishing a non-democratic communist state in Nepal. If the Nepali democratic parties embark on this endeavor and unite, they will provide the Nepali population a credible alternative to the Maoists and hopefully democracy and the nation can be saved. In such an event both national and international players will undoubtedly come out openly in favor of the Broader Democratic Alliance.
Introduction
Contrary to popular belief, the main purpose of creating a "broader democratic front" is not to topple the Maoist led government. The idea of establishing a broader democratic front is to prevent a situation that will push the country towards an eventual political confrontation. It is, therefore, important to comprehend the situation under which various leaders have been demanding the early amalgamation of democratic forces and it is equally important to understand the underlying factors and the political compulsions of creating a Broader Democratic Alliance. First, the Maoist party is the largest party in the Constituent Assembly and; the Maoists together with other leftist parties are a majority in the Constituent Assembly. Second, the Maoist party belongs to an extreme revolutionary group who do not believe in the existence of a liberal democratic polity. And lastly, the Maoist party leads a government with arms to defend the subsistence of their extreme communist ideology. It is in this perspective that the idea of a Broader Democratic Front becomes essential if we are to envision the long term survival of a plural, liberal democracy in Nepal.
Other democratic parties, primarily the Nepali Congress do not posses weapons. Organizationally too, the democratic parties stand as weak opponents to the Maoists. Maoist unions, the bellicose and boisterous YCL outfits have succeeded in stalling industrial progress. The YCL continue to intimidate bureaucrats throughout Nepal to work towards their party's interest. Today, all governmental institutions and even the private sector stand as hostage to the institutionalized bullying, terror tactics and to the extreme ideology of the Maoist unions. However, what is most alarming is the fact that almost all government machineries besides the Nepal Army have been rendered non-functional. But more fundamentally, the constitutional, legal, judicial, and the democratic process have begun to crumble under sustained Maoist pressure. In such a situation, all parties that believe in the existence of a plural, liberal democratic order should have engaged in genuine political maneuvers to check mate the Maoists. Unfortunately; that did not happen.
The Idea of a BDA
If the Democratic Front had taken shape and been effective; the Nepali political discourse would present a politically balanced picture. However, the reality today is vastly different; the democratic forces are weak and divided, they lack cohesion organizationally and are a minority in the Constituent Assembly. On the other hand, Nepali Congress, the largest democratic party is weak organizationally and the persistence internal wrangling has further weakened the party. The other democratic parties such as the Madesh based parties and the former RPP's too are scattered and divided across the political spectrum. The weak presentation of the democratic forces is having a negative impact on the transitional politics of New Nepal. A sense of hopelessness and dejection is slowly taking over the minds of the people who have been subjugated to continued Maoist brutality. The long term absence of a tolerant liberal democratic alternative will create disenchantment with the democratic parties in the long run.
Therefore, in this critical stage, it is necessary for the democratic parties to forge an alliance. In fact, the recent attacks on Himal media and the free press reveal these two political certainties. It is important to understand that time is indeed running out as there is no real sustainable alternative to the democratic front. However, the Maoists are making concerted efforts to foil the creation of a democratic front. Individuals within the Nepali Congress such as Ramchandra Poudel, who is reportedly close to the Maoists, is being used by the Maoists, to thwart the creation of a democratic front. Other than Poudel there are other leaders within the Nepali Congress ranks who are opportunists and are more eager to join the Maoist led government than to oppose the Maoist on principle political issues. For such opportunist leaders, the existence of a democratic front is irrelevant as they are neither loyal to the Nepali Congress, nor do they have strong conviction to envision a truly democratic Nepal.
On a more hopeful note the existence of a democratic front will create positive political equilibrium as it will give people the courage to resist the Maoist's totalitarian views. But more importantly, the existence of a democratic front will be crucial to politically balance the Maoists and to contain them within a democratic paradigm.
Regional Implications
The growing Chinese influence in Nepal will only work towards the benefit of leftist forces. Indian foreign policy vis a vis Nepal seems to have been guided by two objectives: the removal of the institution of monarchy and the creation of strong democratic base in the Madesh to secure their borders fearing possible nexus between the Maoists in Nepal and India. However, the Indian experiment in the Madesh has failed. The recent revelation that some Mumbai attackers were in Nepal and that the Chinese had sent in miscellaneous funds for the Maoist party to use as military funds should be a worrying sign for the Indian establishment. Increasing Chinese activity and the ISI's recent exercises in Nepal all indicate that Nepali territory is being used against India. China's active presence in Nepal coinciding with a Maoist led government in Nepal will have a long term impact on India's national security. India's opposition to Islamic terrorism but her silence towards political terrorism can in no way help her deal with her security qualms – Maoist insurgency is political terrorism. The Maoist menace in South Asia today stands as the biggest challenge to India's national security. The continuance of Maoist dominance in the Nepali polity arena has augured well for facilitating increased Chinese and ISI activity in Nepal against India.
It is important to note that within the India political context, the experiment of both NDA and UPA has worked well in politically balancing two opposing ideological camps within the democratic framework. The Indian experiment has proved that such alliances have long term impacts on the political structure of a country and that it is sustainable too if the alliance is constructed on a consistent ideological platform. The formation of a democratic alliance in Nepal will help India neutralize anti-Indian elements that are a threat to both India and Nepal's long term security concerns. The formation of a democratic alliance will be most effective in repulsing increasing Chinese and ISI activity in Nepal.
Conclusion
The mere indulgence in speeches, nauseating use of rhetoric, issuing of statements, cannot be viewed as an effective strategy in confronting the Maoists. Democratic institutions and organizations need to be strengthened in response to the challenge meted out by the Maoists
All parties that envision the survival of a democratic polity must come together putting aside their prejudices of the past against each other. This is the only hope and the real alternative that the democratic parties can wield to counter the Maoists, their ideology and their domestic and international backers. The Nepali Congress must understand that they alone cannot counter the Maoists. The BDA needs the support of other democratic parties too. The survival of democracy in Nepal will be determined by the ability of the Nepali Congress and the other democratic parties to work together against the Maoist, other authoritarian forces and anti-nationalistic fronts. Only the unity and the collaboration amongst the democratic parties can help Nepal overcome the challenges posed by the Maoists who are keen on establishing a non-democratic communist state in Nepal. If the Nepali democratic parties embark on this endeavor and unite, they will provide the Nepali population a credible alternative to the Maoists and hopefully democracy and the nation can be saved. In such an event both national and international players will undoubtedly come out openly in favor of the Broader Democratic Alliance.
Related Post:
http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2007/04/after-year-of-loktantra-is-it-finally.html
Monday, December 22, 2008
Himal Media Reaps the Maoist Whirlwind
(Courtesy: Comrade Libre)
It's hard to decide what's more shocking - Maoists' entering Himal Media's premises and physically assaulting that organization’s employees or the reactions of disbelief from various segments of Nepali polity - many of whom were instrumental in facilitating the Maoists' unchecked rise to power. As “outraged” as these “useful idiots” may be, it is unlikely that Himal Media, the (Western) international community, or any Nepali political Party, has either the resources (manpower, intellect, etc.) or the will, to effectively counter the Maoists.
When it comes to Himal Media in particular, the issue of "perception being reality" is everything. The perception amongst the vast Nepali majority is that Himal Media functions as an Indian mouthpiece and a tax haven for the International NGO (INGO) community. The Nepali Times (the English weekly produced by Himal Media) has an avid readership among the ex-patriot, diplomatic and non-resident Nepali communities. "Himal Khabarpatrika" and Himal Magazine cater to the South Asian intellectual elite. "Wave," another publication from Himal, caters to the elite, urban Nepali youth.
This sort of market segmentation is excellent for business. Good business strategy means more sales but in Nepal’s case, it means higher revenues within vertical demographies as opposed to sales across multiple horizontal segments. To put matters in perspective, the demography that reads Himal Media products is the single largest minority in Nepal – the urbane, sophisticated, metropolitan elite. By extension of this fact, the liberal ideals that Himal Media aspires to represent, are an anathema to most segments of Nepali polity; especially to the Maoists’ who are accustomed to killing scribes that are out of synch with the Prachanda Path’s worldview.
Also, Himal Media’s portrait is incomplete without due mention of its most polarizing and controversial co-owner, Mr. Kanak Mani Dixit. Although it was Kanak’s older brother, Kunda, who bore witness to yesterday’s Maoist aggression, it is Kanak Dixit who is on record for insinuating a Maoist defeat at the CA elections - “the political party that gets the largest number of votes” would have to “carry along all political forces including the Maoists in the running of the government….”
Kanak’s writing (at the time), was widely perceived as regurgitated rhetoric, based on flawed Indian intelligence. His words may have been overlooked by his dinner guests Pushpa Dahal, Baburam Bhattarai and their wives, but many staunch Maoists’ are known to have taken exception to Kanak’s partial stance. Kanak may have been the greatest of Maoist allies for dealing with the King but his partial brand of advocacy during the CA elections is certain to have diminished his standing with the Maoists, compromised his personal independence, and undermined the independence of the organization he leads - Himal Media.
Further, the intelligence upon which Kanak Dixit’s pre-CA position is purported to have been based, is the same intelligence (if one can call it that) which had the Nepali Congress resting on its laurels during the run up to elections. When the expected election outcome did not materialize, the NC’s emissary to the US, Dr. Suresh Raj Chalise, is reported to have spent time, hopping from one think tank to another, explaining what a great job the NC had done in mainstreaming the Maoists.
The rest is history. The Maoists delivered a sweeping victory at the Constituent Assembly elections and Dr. Chalise’s Ambassadorship to the US has been terminated by the Maoist-led government. So much for Kanak’s insinuation that the NC would come out on top and Dr. Chalise’s dreams of a mainstreamed Maoist Party. So much for the excuses that various Himal Media outlets made in support of creating space for the “less radical” Maoists.
As with every opportunity presented before them, the Maoists took what they were given, milked the situation for everything it was worth and have conveniently moved on. It was gross oversight on Himal Media’s part for hoping that Maoist goodwill may still be pending for services rendered (by Himal Media) during the King’s time. The truth is, when it comes to the Maoist worldview, Himal Media is no different that any other organization in Nepal. Himal may have a record for being the most outspoken, but it also has a reputation for being the most elitist and partial to Indian whims. Neither reputation bodes well for Himal Media or its off-shoot businesses (for example, “Rato Bangala”) given the populist tone that Nepal’s Maoist government has successfully set.
The aftermath of the attack on Himal Media will likely expose another less known dimension of Himal Media – its proximity to the INGO and Donor community nexus. For example, in “Come Back, Ian" (published in the Nepali Times), Kanak Dixit made a heart rendering appeal to then UN Secretary General, Kofi Anan, to re-assign Ian Martin to Nepal as the head of UNMIN. Kofi obliged and in doing so, saved Ian Martin from being held accountable to the disgrace of a job that the UN did in East Timor. Ian Martin owes his position in Nepal, to Kanak Dixit.
The Maoists’ are well aware of this relationship and have waited just long enough to test the bonds between Himal Media and the UN in general. Although UNMIN is not MANDATED to comment on episodes like these, the criticism from other UN bodies will undoubtedly be sharp. The intensity of the criticisms forwarded is certain to be matched only by the leniency of the current government’s response. But, the point here is that the louder and more biting the criticism from Nepal's international well-wishers, the easier the attack on Himal Media will be for the Maoists and ultra-nationalists to stomach.
As unpleasant and distasteful as the attack on Himal Media was, this is the type of “lesson” that Nepalis need to learn over and over again. Day by day, the Maoists’ are growing bolder and more calculated as the opposition becomes weaker and more disorganized. The lines between progressive and regressive elements are being redrawn and where the middle ground once stood, is an empty, barren wasteland.
No one wants renewed conflict. No one wants more Nepalis to be butchered for any political party to come to power. But the inevitable (and unspoken) reality is that there will come a time when dealing with the Maoists will necessarily imply the application of the only terms that the Maoists understand – force. Till that day rolls around, the only certainty is that there will be many more episodes like the one at Himal Media.
The Maoists’ will always find an excuse to rationalize what happened. Even if the Maoist leadership apologizes for the actions of its labor union, there is no guarantee that any Nepali journalist will ever again dare to publicly criticize the Maoists. With so many skeletons to hide, there is no certainty that deals which compromise freedom of speech, won’t be made in return for “protection.”
Avoiding this domino-style catastrophe is why it is absolutely imperative that the Himal Media experience be taken seriously and be opened up for public discourse. Such debate should include not just the documented hooliganism of the Maoist labor union but also any real grievances the Maoists may have against Himal Media. Nepal’s government should take a democratic approach to dealing with this issue, should feel the pulse of the Nepali majority and for a change, should rely less on internationally driven sensation and more on addressing the root causes behind incidents like the one at Himal Media.
It's hard to decide what's more shocking - Maoists' entering Himal Media's premises and physically assaulting that organization’s employees or the reactions of disbelief from various segments of Nepali polity - many of whom were instrumental in facilitating the Maoists' unchecked rise to power. As “outraged” as these “useful idiots” may be, it is unlikely that Himal Media, the (Western) international community, or any Nepali political Party, has either the resources (manpower, intellect, etc.) or the will, to effectively counter the Maoists.
When it comes to Himal Media in particular, the issue of "perception being reality" is everything. The perception amongst the vast Nepali majority is that Himal Media functions as an Indian mouthpiece and a tax haven for the International NGO (INGO) community. The Nepali Times (the English weekly produced by Himal Media) has an avid readership among the ex-patriot, diplomatic and non-resident Nepali communities. "Himal Khabarpatrika" and Himal Magazine cater to the South Asian intellectual elite. "Wave," another publication from Himal, caters to the elite, urban Nepali youth.
This sort of market segmentation is excellent for business. Good business strategy means more sales but in Nepal’s case, it means higher revenues within vertical demographies as opposed to sales across multiple horizontal segments. To put matters in perspective, the demography that reads Himal Media products is the single largest minority in Nepal – the urbane, sophisticated, metropolitan elite. By extension of this fact, the liberal ideals that Himal Media aspires to represent, are an anathema to most segments of Nepali polity; especially to the Maoists’ who are accustomed to killing scribes that are out of synch with the Prachanda Path’s worldview.
Also, Himal Media’s portrait is incomplete without due mention of its most polarizing and controversial co-owner, Mr. Kanak Mani Dixit. Although it was Kanak’s older brother, Kunda, who bore witness to yesterday’s Maoist aggression, it is Kanak Dixit who is on record for insinuating a Maoist defeat at the CA elections - “the political party that gets the largest number of votes” would have to “carry along all political forces including the Maoists in the running of the government….”
Kanak’s writing (at the time), was widely perceived as regurgitated rhetoric, based on flawed Indian intelligence. His words may have been overlooked by his dinner guests Pushpa Dahal, Baburam Bhattarai and their wives, but many staunch Maoists’ are known to have taken exception to Kanak’s partial stance. Kanak may have been the greatest of Maoist allies for dealing with the King but his partial brand of advocacy during the CA elections is certain to have diminished his standing with the Maoists, compromised his personal independence, and undermined the independence of the organization he leads - Himal Media.
Further, the intelligence upon which Kanak Dixit’s pre-CA position is purported to have been based, is the same intelligence (if one can call it that) which had the Nepali Congress resting on its laurels during the run up to elections. When the expected election outcome did not materialize, the NC’s emissary to the US, Dr. Suresh Raj Chalise, is reported to have spent time, hopping from one think tank to another, explaining what a great job the NC had done in mainstreaming the Maoists.
The rest is history. The Maoists delivered a sweeping victory at the Constituent Assembly elections and Dr. Chalise’s Ambassadorship to the US has been terminated by the Maoist-led government. So much for Kanak’s insinuation that the NC would come out on top and Dr. Chalise’s dreams of a mainstreamed Maoist Party. So much for the excuses that various Himal Media outlets made in support of creating space for the “less radical” Maoists.
As with every opportunity presented before them, the Maoists took what they were given, milked the situation for everything it was worth and have conveniently moved on. It was gross oversight on Himal Media’s part for hoping that Maoist goodwill may still be pending for services rendered (by Himal Media) during the King’s time. The truth is, when it comes to the Maoist worldview, Himal Media is no different that any other organization in Nepal. Himal may have a record for being the most outspoken, but it also has a reputation for being the most elitist and partial to Indian whims. Neither reputation bodes well for Himal Media or its off-shoot businesses (for example, “Rato Bangala”) given the populist tone that Nepal’s Maoist government has successfully set.
The aftermath of the attack on Himal Media will likely expose another less known dimension of Himal Media – its proximity to the INGO and Donor community nexus. For example, in “Come Back, Ian" (published in the Nepali Times), Kanak Dixit made a heart rendering appeal to then UN Secretary General, Kofi Anan, to re-assign Ian Martin to Nepal as the head of UNMIN. Kofi obliged and in doing so, saved Ian Martin from being held accountable to the disgrace of a job that the UN did in East Timor. Ian Martin owes his position in Nepal, to Kanak Dixit.
The Maoists’ are well aware of this relationship and have waited just long enough to test the bonds between Himal Media and the UN in general. Although UNMIN is not MANDATED to comment on episodes like these, the criticism from other UN bodies will undoubtedly be sharp. The intensity of the criticisms forwarded is certain to be matched only by the leniency of the current government’s response. But, the point here is that the louder and more biting the criticism from Nepal's international well-wishers, the easier the attack on Himal Media will be for the Maoists and ultra-nationalists to stomach.
As unpleasant and distasteful as the attack on Himal Media was, this is the type of “lesson” that Nepalis need to learn over and over again. Day by day, the Maoists’ are growing bolder and more calculated as the opposition becomes weaker and more disorganized. The lines between progressive and regressive elements are being redrawn and where the middle ground once stood, is an empty, barren wasteland.
No one wants renewed conflict. No one wants more Nepalis to be butchered for any political party to come to power. But the inevitable (and unspoken) reality is that there will come a time when dealing with the Maoists will necessarily imply the application of the only terms that the Maoists understand – force. Till that day rolls around, the only certainty is that there will be many more episodes like the one at Himal Media.
The Maoists’ will always find an excuse to rationalize what happened. Even if the Maoist leadership apologizes for the actions of its labor union, there is no guarantee that any Nepali journalist will ever again dare to publicly criticize the Maoists. With so many skeletons to hide, there is no certainty that deals which compromise freedom of speech, won’t be made in return for “protection.”
Avoiding this domino-style catastrophe is why it is absolutely imperative that the Himal Media experience be taken seriously and be opened up for public discourse. Such debate should include not just the documented hooliganism of the Maoist labor union but also any real grievances the Maoists may have against Himal Media. Nepal’s government should take a democratic approach to dealing with this issue, should feel the pulse of the Nepali majority and for a change, should rely less on internationally driven sensation and more on addressing the root causes behind incidents like the one at Himal Media.
Sunday, December 21, 2008
“Rs 250 billion as royalty from 10,000 MW”
(Courtesy: Ratna Sansar Shrestha)
In the presence of Prime Minister Dahal last Friday, during the inauguration of 6th AGM of CNI, Dr Shankar Sharma, former vice chair of National Planning Commission announced that “Nepal will earn Rs 250 billion as royalty of 10,000 MW even under existing law of Nepal”- (he said in Nepali “2 saya 50 arba rupaiya”). This is not correct at all. During the power summit of 2006 TN Thakur of PTC India did his best to mislead Nepali populace by announcing that Nepal can earn IC Rs 10,000 crore (NRs 160 billion) by exporting 10,000 MW electricity from plants built with Indian investment. I published an article refuting his statement in Kantipur on 13th Kartik last year. Realizing that he wouldn’t be reading an article in the vernacular daily, I got another article published on the same vein in the Kathmandu Post on 25th Paush last year. Then some half-wit went overboard and said Nepal will earn Rs 25,000 (250 billion) crore by exporting 10,000 MW in a program in Patna couple of months back. I earnestly hope that Dr Sharma is not inspired by these numbers.
Because, under the extant Electricity Act, 1992, capacity royalty is Rs 100 per kW and energy royalty is 2%, at the rate of which Nepal will earn a total royalty of Rs 4.9 billion only if the hydropower projects are able to achieve plant factor of 50% and sold at US 6 ¢. This number is lower by a magnitude compared to the one he has quoted. I take it that discerning readers are aware that NEA is able to achieve only 33% plant factor and in which case the royalty earning will go down to Rs 3.6 billion only.
Under the Electricity Bill the proposed capacity royalty is Rs 400 per kW and energy royalty is 7.5%, at which rate Nepal will earn total royalty of Rs 18.78 billion only at 50% plant factor. Even at the proposed higher rate for royalties Nepal’s earning from royalty will be very far from what he has quoted.
Even if Nepal was to levy 100% of the electricity sales revenue as royalty (ridiculous and impossible), Nepal will receive only Rs 197 billion – still not quite Rs 250 billion. The electricity will have to be sold at US 7.6 ¢ and cent percent of the sales proceed will have to be charged as royalty to achieve royalty revenue of the level he has mentioned. Nobody will disagree that this is a outrageous proposition and Nepal will never be able to levy royalty at this level. In other words the royalty rate will have to be Rs 8.65 per kWh (unit) in order for Nepal to earn as royalty Rs 250 billion. Under present market condition this is impossible feat.
Sometime back Professor Dr Ram Manohar Shrestha also came up with similar astounding numbers about potential royalty revenue for Nepal and I did point out his error (over estimation), which is published in my blog ( HYPERLINK "http://ratnasansar.blogspot.com/" \o "blocked::http://ratnasansar.blogspot.com/" http://ratnasansar.blogspot.com/), in order to deconstruct the myth that is being perpetuated.
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Nepali Polity: A Waning Pseudo-Democracy with No Real Alternatives
(Courtesy: el Zorro)
Whether the Maoists’ have the capacity to last through Nepal’s constitution-making process is turning into a big question. With every passing day and every emerging episode of Maoist mischief, this government’s days in office appear limited. The only saving grace for the Maoists’ (unfortunately), is that their opposition is held in such contempt that even with all the high handedness in the world, the Maoists’ still remain the best of the worst.
The base argument to topple Nepal’s Maoist-led government is simple: Cutting off heads, assassinating surrendered combatants, murdering political opponents, then threatening and intimidating the opposition vote-bank into submission is not synonymous with a democratic rise to power.
For anyone who may still be confused, it was a sustained campaign of violence (for ten years running) that earned the Maoists’ the political currency they possess today – NOT the CA elections. Further, the maintenance of the Maoists’ current power-base requires that the perceived threat of violence be maintained at all times. So, “Prime Minister” Dahal’s rant about a reversion to arms (which he later claimed was grossly misinterpreted journalism) was much less a slip of his tongue than a reminder to the depleted Nepali psyche that violence is imminent - unless the Maoists’ have their way.
The constant fear of a return to violence is what the Maoists’ have always leveraged to keep their critics at bay. The idea that the Nepali people are being held hostage to peace on the Maoists’ terms may have been too conservative a view for Nepal’s liberals to stomach a year ago but thankfully, times have changed.
Given what the Maoists’ have demonstrated while in power, it would be criminal for anyone to continue insisting on their democratic intent (or to keep alluding to the Maoists’ internal struggle) as an excuse for why the Maoists’ deserve a chance. The initial insistence on goodwill towards the Maoists’ may have originated from curiosity of the unknown but any insistence that persists today, most certainly originates from a fear of the known. To put matters plainly, what Nepali people know, is that the Maoists’ will not hesitate to kill to make their point.
Owing to these painstakingly slow realizations, the days when Nepal’s self declared “civil society” apologists and human rights defenders would shield the Maoists’ against criticism, are coming to an end. The days when rubbing shoulders with the Maoists’ was considered a fashion statement for the ultra-liberal (and the wide-eyed Nepalis abroad), is also nearing its end. Pretty soon, the Maoists’ are not going to be a “cool association” and youngsters and grown-ups alike are going to have to make some tough choices.
The reality is that making excuses for the Maoists’ is turning into a full time job – a profession that is not without ethical consequences or moral hazards. For example, the Maoists’ kidnapped and murdered a civilian (Kishor Shrestha) from Kathmandu, held the individual in a UN monitored cantonment and then murdered the man. No action has yet been taken although the guilty party has been identified as a Maoist Commander. Any takers to defend the continuation of Maoist impunity? There used to be plenty when Gyanendra was still around.
As another example, under this Maoist government, a total of 349 criminal court cases from across Nepal were recently declared null and void. These cases the Maoists’ claim, were politically motivated and thus, have to be nullified because they implicate almost the entire Maoist leadership in some way, shape or form. Any signs of “brave,” democracy-loving Supreme Court advocates who would dare to check the Maoists’ infringement upon the Nepali Judiciary’s independence? No. Not a single advocate in the same spot where an "army" of advocates once stood to shine in the international media's spotlight and "defy" an autocratic Gyanendra!!
Well, Nepal has a bigger problem now - the Maoists plus all the middle ranks of the Royalists are in the same corner. But this situation apparently, is not as grave a threat to democracy as Gyanendra so there's no point in risking one's life for few seconds of air time on Nepal TV!! Also, there's an unspoken factor that every Maoist opponent must constantly consider: Gyanendra's henchmen may have gone around and censored news papers, limited freedom of speech and curbed freedom of assembly, but the Maoists' will hold nothing back. They will simply eliminate that which they perceive as a threat and no Supreme Court Advocate wants to make the Maiosts' black list. The net result is, it's the Maoists' way, all the way.
With the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, there is a never-ending litany of examples of not-so-smart ideas that the academically bright (and the practically devoid) were manipulated into adopting. But the problem moving forward is far less that mistakes were made and much more that people who made them, are unwilling to publicly rectify their wrongs. (There are terms that describe persons of this temperament – unprincipled, immoral, shameless, cowards, etc.).
It is precisely because of a select few who prefer to reinterpret the past to fit their worldviews (rather than admitting their mistakes and changing course), that Nepalis are without the moral impetus necessary to facilitate lasting change and the emergence of real alternatives. The Nepali Congress under Girija Prasad Koirala, supported by his network of cronies at home and abroad, is not a real alternative to the current set up. The Maoist off-shoot Upendra Yadav, is after all, a Maoist at heart. He has likely killed with the “best” of them – not a real alternative either. The same goes for most if not all of the faces that have “graced” Nepali politics over the past two decades.
So the issue at hand is less that the Maoists’ murdered their way to power and more that those with the moral authority to stand up to the Maoists are either too afraid, or too proud (or both), to admit that they were duped. Until the truth behind how badly Nepal’s political and academic elites were used and abused by the Maoists’ enters the domain of public discourse, there will be no platform for real, lasting change.
To put matters plainly, until this process of introspection and self-realization (and hopefully remorse) has taken its course, Nepalis are better off living under the Maoists’ than reverting to life under Girija Koirala’s Nepali Congress. And this simple calculus, despite everything the Maoists’ are doing to subvert democracy in Nepal, is why the Maoists’ will outlast a “broader democratic alliance,” and any other shenanigan that a desperate, power-hungry and disorganized opposition, can dream up.
Whether the Maoists’ have the capacity to last through Nepal’s constitution-making process is turning into a big question. With every passing day and every emerging episode of Maoist mischief, this government’s days in office appear limited. The only saving grace for the Maoists’ (unfortunately), is that their opposition is held in such contempt that even with all the high handedness in the world, the Maoists’ still remain the best of the worst.
The base argument to topple Nepal’s Maoist-led government is simple: Cutting off heads, assassinating surrendered combatants, murdering political opponents, then threatening and intimidating the opposition vote-bank into submission is not synonymous with a democratic rise to power.
For anyone who may still be confused, it was a sustained campaign of violence (for ten years running) that earned the Maoists’ the political currency they possess today – NOT the CA elections. Further, the maintenance of the Maoists’ current power-base requires that the perceived threat of violence be maintained at all times. So, “Prime Minister” Dahal’s rant about a reversion to arms (which he later claimed was grossly misinterpreted journalism) was much less a slip of his tongue than a reminder to the depleted Nepali psyche that violence is imminent - unless the Maoists’ have their way.
The constant fear of a return to violence is what the Maoists’ have always leveraged to keep their critics at bay. The idea that the Nepali people are being held hostage to peace on the Maoists’ terms may have been too conservative a view for Nepal’s liberals to stomach a year ago but thankfully, times have changed.
Given what the Maoists’ have demonstrated while in power, it would be criminal for anyone to continue insisting on their democratic intent (or to keep alluding to the Maoists’ internal struggle) as an excuse for why the Maoists’ deserve a chance. The initial insistence on goodwill towards the Maoists’ may have originated from curiosity of the unknown but any insistence that persists today, most certainly originates from a fear of the known. To put matters plainly, what Nepali people know, is that the Maoists’ will not hesitate to kill to make their point.
Owing to these painstakingly slow realizations, the days when Nepal’s self declared “civil society” apologists and human rights defenders would shield the Maoists’ against criticism, are coming to an end. The days when rubbing shoulders with the Maoists’ was considered a fashion statement for the ultra-liberal (and the wide-eyed Nepalis abroad), is also nearing its end. Pretty soon, the Maoists’ are not going to be a “cool association” and youngsters and grown-ups alike are going to have to make some tough choices.
The reality is that making excuses for the Maoists’ is turning into a full time job – a profession that is not without ethical consequences or moral hazards. For example, the Maoists’ kidnapped and murdered a civilian (Kishor Shrestha) from Kathmandu, held the individual in a UN monitored cantonment and then murdered the man. No action has yet been taken although the guilty party has been identified as a Maoist Commander. Any takers to defend the continuation of Maoist impunity? There used to be plenty when Gyanendra was still around.
As another example, under this Maoist government, a total of 349 criminal court cases from across Nepal were recently declared null and void. These cases the Maoists’ claim, were politically motivated and thus, have to be nullified because they implicate almost the entire Maoist leadership in some way, shape or form. Any signs of “brave,” democracy-loving Supreme Court advocates who would dare to check the Maoists’ infringement upon the Nepali Judiciary’s independence? No. Not a single advocate in the same spot where an "army" of advocates once stood to shine in the international media's spotlight and "defy" an autocratic Gyanendra!!
Well, Nepal has a bigger problem now - the Maoists plus all the middle ranks of the Royalists are in the same corner. But this situation apparently, is not as grave a threat to democracy as Gyanendra so there's no point in risking one's life for few seconds of air time on Nepal TV!! Also, there's an unspoken factor that every Maoist opponent must constantly consider: Gyanendra's henchmen may have gone around and censored news papers, limited freedom of speech and curbed freedom of assembly, but the Maoists' will hold nothing back. They will simply eliminate that which they perceive as a threat and no Supreme Court Advocate wants to make the Maiosts' black list. The net result is, it's the Maoists' way, all the way.
With the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, there is a never-ending litany of examples of not-so-smart ideas that the academically bright (and the practically devoid) were manipulated into adopting. But the problem moving forward is far less that mistakes were made and much more that people who made them, are unwilling to publicly rectify their wrongs. (There are terms that describe persons of this temperament – unprincipled, immoral, shameless, cowards, etc.).
It is precisely because of a select few who prefer to reinterpret the past to fit their worldviews (rather than admitting their mistakes and changing course), that Nepalis are without the moral impetus necessary to facilitate lasting change and the emergence of real alternatives. The Nepali Congress under Girija Prasad Koirala, supported by his network of cronies at home and abroad, is not a real alternative to the current set up. The Maoist off-shoot Upendra Yadav, is after all, a Maoist at heart. He has likely killed with the “best” of them – not a real alternative either. The same goes for most if not all of the faces that have “graced” Nepali politics over the past two decades.
So the issue at hand is less that the Maoists’ murdered their way to power and more that those with the moral authority to stand up to the Maoists are either too afraid, or too proud (or both), to admit that they were duped. Until the truth behind how badly Nepal’s political and academic elites were used and abused by the Maoists’ enters the domain of public discourse, there will be no platform for real, lasting change.
To put matters plainly, until this process of introspection and self-realization (and hopefully remorse) has taken its course, Nepalis are better off living under the Maoists’ than reverting to life under Girija Koirala’s Nepali Congress. And this simple calculus, despite everything the Maoists’ are doing to subvert democracy in Nepal, is why the Maoists’ will outlast a “broader democratic alliance,” and any other shenanigan that a desperate, power-hungry and disorganized opposition, can dream up.
Monday, December 15, 2008
Practice What You Preach
(Courtesy: Dr. Hari Bansha Dulal)
Last month's terrorist attacks in Mumbai shocked everyone. Nearly two hundred innocent men and women lost their precious lives and many more were injured. In anger over Mumbai attacks, while the nation was grieving the loss, Indian media and politicians, as usual, tirelessly vilified and pointed the finger at Pakistan. Blaming the usual suspect, Pakistan, began even before evidences were gathered and the lone surviving terrorist was interrogated.
Although the notoriety of Pakistan's Intelligence Agency, ISI in providing aid and comfort to Islamofascists that want to inflict harm on India cannot be denied based on its past activities, India should also take responsibility for its own security lapses and failure to address issues that are fuelling the rise of Islamic fundamentalism in the Indian subcontinent. Is it because of India's rigid posture on Kashmiri issues or is it due to India's inability to lift the status of millions of Muslims that are at the bottom of the pyramid, to whom, the prosperity of the last two decades has failed to bring about any real changes? What actually is it that is luring young men and women in Indian subcontinent towards radical Islam?
By attacking landmarks in the financial capital of India, Mumbai, jihadist juggernauts wanted to do two things: expose India's vulnerabilities and slow down India's economic progress. The recent terrorist attacks in Indian subcontinent also signal shift in venue of global terrorism. Lately, South Asia has become a focal point for terrorism directed against the western nations. By targeting westerners in Mumbai, Islamic radicals wanted to send a message about shift in venue for holy jihad. It clearly shows how the trends in terrorism continue to shift from the Middle East to South Asia. With Afghanistan slipping into chaos and Nepal on freefall, jihadists have more than needed space to operate in South Asia. If terrorism is to be wiped out from South Asia, along with Pakistan, India too, has substantial homework to do.
First and foremost, India should work on its definition of “terrorism.” For India, groups that are waging armed struggle for the liberation of Kashmir from Pakistani soil are terrorists, and it wants Pakistani government to go after them, but when it comes to India's turn to act, it simply looks the other way. While India blames Pakistan for providing aid and comfort to the anti-Indian elements, India's own record is not as clean as it wants others to believe. It is an open secret about where the Maoists ideologues, who raised arms against the state, and whom Indian government unilaterally branded as terrorists lived for the most part of the decade long insurgency. The Maoists movement that brought Nepal to its knees would not have been succeeded without India's generosity. India not only provided the Maoists a safe heaven to operate, but also forced democratic forces to bed with them, whose ugly repercussions are unfolding slowly.
India's soft corner for those that raise arms against Nepali state did not end with its generosity towards the Maoists. It continues to provide safe heaven to armed secessionist groups that want to disintegrate Nepal. How is Pakistan's support to Jihadists that want to free Kashmir different from India's turning blind eyes on groups that have raised arms to seek secession? Armed struggle in Nepal will not survive without Indian benevolence.
What India as a nation should understand is that, it can only progress the way it wants to, when South Asia as a regions is, stable and peaceful. It cannot and will not remain insulated from the pouring in of negative externalities if its neighbors fail. It should, thus, stop providing safe heaven to groups that raise arms against its neighbors. Only then, India will have moral authority to ask Pakistan to go after the groups that carry out anti-Indian activities in Pakistani soil.
If India continues to provide safe heaven to the armed groups that raise arms against Nepal, armed struggle in Nepal will never wane. Bunch of incompetent but ambitious individuals that lack patience and caliber to win the hearts and mind of Nepali people through peaceful democratic means will keep on waging wars in the name of fighting oppression. Looking at honeymoon period of the Maoist government, it becomes evident that rhetoric alone is not enough to bring changes. For change to come, the rulers should have a vision and competence. Is India ready to be held accountable, if the so called revolutionaries, to whom it provides safe heaven, fail to deliver, like the Maoists, and bring about positive changes?
The Maoists in Nepal had an excellent opportunity bring about changes. There was no need to create rogue institution like Young Communist League (YCL). They had already created a political space for themselves. The defeat of stalwarts of the United Marxist Leninist Party (UML) at the hands of the obscure Maoists figures clearly showed that the UML's grassroots operatives had mass-migrated to the Maoists Party. Instead of trying to capitalize their gains and focusing on providing services to the people, the Maoists remained glued to their red book, which states terror as a method social control.
With the honeymoon period over, the excitement generated by Maoists' revolution has dissipated. With waning of euphoria, Puspa Kamal Dahal finds himself under fire. His next step? If worst comes, step down and wreck havoc till the next government is overwhelmed. The Nepali politics is sure to get confrontational in days to come. The way things are unfolding, it appears that, we will once again witness a bloody conflict, whereby the very same people who declared the Maoists terrorists will be at the helm of affairs, and the Maoists at offensive. Who gains from this, if this is to really happen? Not Nepali people for sure!
India, when it comes to its own security, aggressively calls for wiping out groups that act against India's national security, but when it is India's turn to reciprocate, its record has been pretty dismal. If nothing, what India can and should learn from the failure of the Maoist government in Nepal is that, there are tons of incompetent and ambitious politicians in Nepal, who are ready to wage war against the state. How do you identify true revolutionaries that can change the face of Nation from phonies, who pose as revolutionaries and wage wars against the state to forward their political agendas? And, will the justification for armed struggle ever get over if a neighbor keeps on rewarding armed insurgencies targeted at its neighbor?
There will always be complaints about injustice caused by the state. No country has ever been fully able to satisfy its citizens. But that cannot simply be the reason for armed struggle. India should force various armed groups that are waging wars against its neighbor to shut down their shops if it really wants Pakistan to go after jihadists that are waging holy war against India.
India cannot win the war against terrorism on its own. If it really wants to win this war, it has to stop the blame game and cooperate with its neighbors.
Last month's terrorist attacks in Mumbai shocked everyone. Nearly two hundred innocent men and women lost their precious lives and many more were injured. In anger over Mumbai attacks, while the nation was grieving the loss, Indian media and politicians, as usual, tirelessly vilified and pointed the finger at Pakistan. Blaming the usual suspect, Pakistan, began even before evidences were gathered and the lone surviving terrorist was interrogated.
Although the notoriety of Pakistan's Intelligence Agency, ISI in providing aid and comfort to Islamofascists that want to inflict harm on India cannot be denied based on its past activities, India should also take responsibility for its own security lapses and failure to address issues that are fuelling the rise of Islamic fundamentalism in the Indian subcontinent. Is it because of India's rigid posture on Kashmiri issues or is it due to India's inability to lift the status of millions of Muslims that are at the bottom of the pyramid, to whom, the prosperity of the last two decades has failed to bring about any real changes? What actually is it that is luring young men and women in Indian subcontinent towards radical Islam?
By attacking landmarks in the financial capital of India, Mumbai, jihadist juggernauts wanted to do two things: expose India's vulnerabilities and slow down India's economic progress. The recent terrorist attacks in Indian subcontinent also signal shift in venue of global terrorism. Lately, South Asia has become a focal point for terrorism directed against the western nations. By targeting westerners in Mumbai, Islamic radicals wanted to send a message about shift in venue for holy jihad. It clearly shows how the trends in terrorism continue to shift from the Middle East to South Asia. With Afghanistan slipping into chaos and Nepal on freefall, jihadists have more than needed space to operate in South Asia. If terrorism is to be wiped out from South Asia, along with Pakistan, India too, has substantial homework to do.
First and foremost, India should work on its definition of “terrorism.” For India, groups that are waging armed struggle for the liberation of Kashmir from Pakistani soil are terrorists, and it wants Pakistani government to go after them, but when it comes to India's turn to act, it simply looks the other way. While India blames Pakistan for providing aid and comfort to the anti-Indian elements, India's own record is not as clean as it wants others to believe. It is an open secret about where the Maoists ideologues, who raised arms against the state, and whom Indian government unilaterally branded as terrorists lived for the most part of the decade long insurgency. The Maoists movement that brought Nepal to its knees would not have been succeeded without India's generosity. India not only provided the Maoists a safe heaven to operate, but also forced democratic forces to bed with them, whose ugly repercussions are unfolding slowly.
India's soft corner for those that raise arms against Nepali state did not end with its generosity towards the Maoists. It continues to provide safe heaven to armed secessionist groups that want to disintegrate Nepal. How is Pakistan's support to Jihadists that want to free Kashmir different from India's turning blind eyes on groups that have raised arms to seek secession? Armed struggle in Nepal will not survive without Indian benevolence.
What India as a nation should understand is that, it can only progress the way it wants to, when South Asia as a regions is, stable and peaceful. It cannot and will not remain insulated from the pouring in of negative externalities if its neighbors fail. It should, thus, stop providing safe heaven to groups that raise arms against its neighbors. Only then, India will have moral authority to ask Pakistan to go after the groups that carry out anti-Indian activities in Pakistani soil.
If India continues to provide safe heaven to the armed groups that raise arms against Nepal, armed struggle in Nepal will never wane. Bunch of incompetent but ambitious individuals that lack patience and caliber to win the hearts and mind of Nepali people through peaceful democratic means will keep on waging wars in the name of fighting oppression. Looking at honeymoon period of the Maoist government, it becomes evident that rhetoric alone is not enough to bring changes. For change to come, the rulers should have a vision and competence. Is India ready to be held accountable, if the so called revolutionaries, to whom it provides safe heaven, fail to deliver, like the Maoists, and bring about positive changes?
The Maoists in Nepal had an excellent opportunity bring about changes. There was no need to create rogue institution like Young Communist League (YCL). They had already created a political space for themselves. The defeat of stalwarts of the United Marxist Leninist Party (UML) at the hands of the obscure Maoists figures clearly showed that the UML's grassroots operatives had mass-migrated to the Maoists Party. Instead of trying to capitalize their gains and focusing on providing services to the people, the Maoists remained glued to their red book, which states terror as a method social control.
With the honeymoon period over, the excitement generated by Maoists' revolution has dissipated. With waning of euphoria, Puspa Kamal Dahal finds himself under fire. His next step? If worst comes, step down and wreck havoc till the next government is overwhelmed. The Nepali politics is sure to get confrontational in days to come. The way things are unfolding, it appears that, we will once again witness a bloody conflict, whereby the very same people who declared the Maoists terrorists will be at the helm of affairs, and the Maoists at offensive. Who gains from this, if this is to really happen? Not Nepali people for sure!
India, when it comes to its own security, aggressively calls for wiping out groups that act against India's national security, but when it is India's turn to reciprocate, its record has been pretty dismal. If nothing, what India can and should learn from the failure of the Maoist government in Nepal is that, there are tons of incompetent and ambitious politicians in Nepal, who are ready to wage war against the state. How do you identify true revolutionaries that can change the face of Nation from phonies, who pose as revolutionaries and wage wars against the state to forward their political agendas? And, will the justification for armed struggle ever get over if a neighbor keeps on rewarding armed insurgencies targeted at its neighbor?
There will always be complaints about injustice caused by the state. No country has ever been fully able to satisfy its citizens. But that cannot simply be the reason for armed struggle. India should force various armed groups that are waging wars against its neighbor to shut down their shops if it really wants Pakistan to go after jihadists that are waging holy war against India.
India cannot win the war against terrorism on its own. If it really wants to win this war, it has to stop the blame game and cooperate with its neighbors.
Tuesday, December 09, 2008
Promised Respite from Load Shedding
(Courtesy: Ratna Sansar Shrestha)
On December 7, 2008, public relations director of Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) declared that electricity users in Nepal will be facing load shedding for next 5 years. And, as NEA had proclaimed in its latest annual report, that “it is envisioned that Nepal would be power surplus by year 2013/14,” one is led to believe that the electricity users will have to suffer for the next 5 years only and after that there will be no load shedding. What a relief! In the capacity of a consumer suffering from the vagaries of the load shedding, one would wish luck to NEA so that it will be able to keep its promise.
The reason for the respite given in the annual report was the implementation of projects, totaling 525 MW by NEA and 281 MW by the independent power producers (IPPs) by 2013/14[1]. Following is the list of projects that NEA envisages to be commissioned by 2013/14:
Table 1: Projects to be commissioned by NEA by 2013/14
The reason for the respite given in the annual report was the implementation of projects, totaling 525 MW by NEA and 281 MW by the independent power producers (IPPs) by 2013/14[1]. Following is the list of projects that NEA envisages to be commissioned by 2013/14:
Table 1: Projects to be commissioned by NEA by 2013/14
Similarly, NEA expects following projects to be commissioned by IPPs by 2013/14:
Table 2: Projects to be commissioned by IPPs by 2013/14
Table 2: Projects to be commissioned by IPPs by 2013/14
In this manner, between NEA and IPPs, Nepal’s power system will see an addition of 806 MW by 2013/14. After the commissioning of Middle Marsyangdi this month Nepal’s current total installed capacity will be 687.38 (617.38 plus 70) MW and after the implementation of the above mentioned projects, the total anticipated generation capacity in the system will be 1493.38 MW by 2013/14.
Let’s now make an attempt to examine if NEA will be able to keep the promise. According to the load forecast of NEA the peak demand in 2013/14 will be 1271.7 MW and as the total capacity in the system will be 1493 MW, superficially it would seem that there will not be any need for load shedding in that year. However, even the ordinary consumers (without understanding the technicalities of electricity generation) have come to learn the hard way that during the dry season (when the demand for power reaches its peak) hydropower plants do not generate to its full capacity. Therefore, in the promised year 2013/14, the peak demand will be 1271.7 MW while with the total installed capacity of 1493.38, NEA will be able to generate only in the order of 7-8 hundred MW during the dry season. Therefore, it is rather obvious that the promised respite from load shedding in that year is almost a pipe dream due to an anticipated shortage of over 400 MW during the dry season.
Moreover, it also needs to be remembered that commissioning of 525 MW by NEA by that year will depend on timely completion of the implementation of the specified projects. NEA, unfortunately, does not have a track record of completing its hydropower projects without incurring significant time overrun since the days of Kulekhani which becomes clear from the following table.
Table 3: Delayed commissioning of projects
Let’s now make an attempt to examine if NEA will be able to keep the promise. According to the load forecast of NEA the peak demand in 2013/14 will be 1271.7 MW and as the total capacity in the system will be 1493 MW, superficially it would seem that there will not be any need for load shedding in that year. However, even the ordinary consumers (without understanding the technicalities of electricity generation) have come to learn the hard way that during the dry season (when the demand for power reaches its peak) hydropower plants do not generate to its full capacity. Therefore, in the promised year 2013/14, the peak demand will be 1271.7 MW while with the total installed capacity of 1493.38, NEA will be able to generate only in the order of 7-8 hundred MW during the dry season. Therefore, it is rather obvious that the promised respite from load shedding in that year is almost a pipe dream due to an anticipated shortage of over 400 MW during the dry season.
Moreover, it also needs to be remembered that commissioning of 525 MW by NEA by that year will depend on timely completion of the implementation of the specified projects. NEA, unfortunately, does not have a track record of completing its hydropower projects without incurring significant time overrun since the days of Kulekhani which becomes clear from the following table.
Table 3: Delayed commissioning of projects
Furthermore, the above table also anticipates addition of 281 MW by the private sector. For this purpose the private investors need to able to execute power purchase agreements (PPAs) with NEA. From the information available till now, no PPA has been signed with any of the projects listed above. In view of this the likelihood of adding 806 MW by 2013/14 is rather remote.
To conclude, it is absolutely clear that even if the projects anticipated to be commissioned by NEA are indeed completed, the load shedding problem will continue to dog the electricity users due to the anticipated shortfall of over 400 MW in 2013/14. If the projects included in the list fail to be commissioned in time, the magnitude of load shedding even in 2013/14 will be higher. This indicates that there is something seriously wrong at various levels like, comprehension of the problem, planning to mitigate the problem and also in the implementation of the projects.
[1] Source: Fiscal Year 2007/08 – a Year in Review of NEA.
To conclude, it is absolutely clear that even if the projects anticipated to be commissioned by NEA are indeed completed, the load shedding problem will continue to dog the electricity users due to the anticipated shortfall of over 400 MW in 2013/14. If the projects included in the list fail to be commissioned in time, the magnitude of load shedding even in 2013/14 will be higher. This indicates that there is something seriously wrong at various levels like, comprehension of the problem, planning to mitigate the problem and also in the implementation of the projects.
[1] Source: Fiscal Year 2007/08 – a Year in Review of NEA.
Monday, December 08, 2008
Nepotism Continues in the New "Maoist" Nepal
(Courtesy: Anonymous Message to NepaliPerspectives - Facts verified through independent sources)
Despite the high-flying populist rhetoric and promise of a "New Nepal," the facts paint a very different portrait of the Nepal that currently exists. The Maoists appear to have wholeheartedly adopted their predecessors' practice of exercising nepotism, without repercussion, without accountability and with complete impunity.
Given the facts listed below, the Maoist Party appears increasingly like Girija Prasad Koirala's Nepali Congress and much less like the stalwarts of progressive politics the Maoists portray themselves to be. From the ashes of the Shah Dynasty, appears a "Dahal-Bhattarai Dynasty" in the making. In the Maoists' "New Nepal," the only qualification one needs to be in power it appears, is blood relations with a Maoist leader - if this isn't feudalism at its best, what is?
More to the point, is this ultimately what 14,000 Nepalis had to die for (and over a 100,000 families had to be displaced for)? Is this what the so-called Maoist revolution was all about - the rise to power for a handful of of power-hungry elite? It certainly appears that this this is the end of the much hyped Maoist revolution, or as many refer to it, as the Maoists' terror campaign to usurp State power.
The kin of Maoist strong man and his second in command who currently enjoy employment at the expense of Nepali and International tax payers are listed below:
Pushpa Kamal Dahal's (a.k.a Prachanda) Family Members in Positions of Power:
Despite the high-flying populist rhetoric and promise of a "New Nepal," the facts paint a very different portrait of the Nepal that currently exists. The Maoists appear to have wholeheartedly adopted their predecessors' practice of exercising nepotism, without repercussion, without accountability and with complete impunity.
Given the facts listed below, the Maoist Party appears increasingly like Girija Prasad Koirala's Nepali Congress and much less like the stalwarts of progressive politics the Maoists portray themselves to be. From the ashes of the Shah Dynasty, appears a "Dahal-Bhattarai Dynasty" in the making. In the Maoists' "New Nepal," the only qualification one needs to be in power it appears, is blood relations with a Maoist leader - if this isn't feudalism at its best, what is?
More to the point, is this ultimately what 14,000 Nepalis had to die for (and over a 100,000 families had to be displaced for)? Is this what the so-called Maoist revolution was all about - the rise to power for a handful of of power-hungry elite? It certainly appears that this this is the end of the much hyped Maoist revolution, or as many refer to it, as the Maoists' terror campaign to usurp State power.
The kin of Maoist strong man and his second in command who currently enjoy employment at the expense of Nepali and International tax payers are listed below:
Pushpa Kamal Dahal's (a.k.a Prachanda) Family Members in Positions of Power:
- Samir Dahal (Under-Secretary of The PM's office), son of Prachanda's younger brother Narayan Dahal.
- Ganga Dahal (Officer of the PM's office), Prachanda's younger daughter (who is also an Indian citizen).
- Gangaram Dahal (un-appointed foreign relations officer), Prachanda's own brother
- Renu Pathak (CA member), Prachanda's daughter
- Arjun Pathak (Officer of CA), Prachanda's son-in-law
- Prakash Dahal (Prime Minister's PA/accountant), Prachanda's son, salary equal to the Under-Secretary.
- Narayan Dahal (CA member), Prachanda's nephew.
- Thakur Bhatta (Prachanda's brother-in-law), Another son-in-law (contractor of Chitwan Cantonment)
- Hisila Yami (Tourist Minister), Baburam's wife.
- Taranaj Pandey (PM's adviser), Baburam's nephew.
- Praya Yami (National Planning Commission), Hisila's older sister
- Timila Yami (Chairperson of Drinking Water Project), Hisila's older sister
- Chirik Shova (member of Kathmandu Drinking Water), Baburam's older sister
- Baburam's younger brother (Tariff -fixing Committee), Head of Kathmandu Drinking water.
Tuesday, December 02, 2008
Water Resources and a "New Nepal"
(Courtesy: Ratna Sansar Shrestha, FCA)
Certain people equate water resource with hydropower, as if there is no other use of the water resource. The constant refrain of this category of people is that all the water flowing down the river “is waste of resource.” They forget that, for example, building a hydropower project at a particular site will preclude new irrigation works in the upstream areas (in order to ensure fixed quantum of water for the hydropower generation) as well as in the dewatered areas. Similarly, as both the hydropower and water sport like rafting compete for the use of particular sites, each is mutually exclusive to the other. Besides, there are many sources to generate energy from. But, to date no alternative to water has been found – for drinking, sanitation, religious and irrigation purposes.
In this background, best use of water resource needs to be decided after seriously contemplating the matter. Before laying out the vision for new Nepal from the perspective of water resource, this paper will make an attempt to describe what the existing Nepal is like.
Existing Nepal
The state of existing Nepal needs to be analyzed from a number of perspectives like, environment and health, forest, education, agriculture, tourism, transport and industry.
Environment and Health
Describing how healthy people in present Nepal are is not an easy job as the concept is beyond quantification. Healthiness of people depend on how frequently people fall sick, how much is spent on medicine, time and money spent in hospices, quantum of absenteeism from work due to sickness and similar other factors which are not easy to quantify. However, life expectancy at birth is a good indicator to assess the quality of people’s health. Under a study conducted by the then Ministry of Population and Environment, the life expectancy was determined at 58.9 years.[1] Compared to 73.6 years of life expectancy in Japan, life expectancy in Nepal is very low. As this number is the average life expectancy of people throughout Nepal, the same will be quite low for rural Nepal – less than 50 years in places like Mugu, Humla, etc. – while in the cities the life expectancy will be a little higher than the national average – above 60 years.
The health of the rural populace is adversely affected by indoor pollution (due to the use of firewood, animal/agro residue for cooking and kerosene lamp for lighting), lack of clean drinking water and sanitation, etc. On the other hand rural people also don’t have access to quality health services for lack of electricity – most of the modern healthcare equipment need electricity to operate. Whereas the city people too don’t fare well because of high level of outdoor pollution from fossil fuel burning vehicles, low quality of piped drinking water, lack of sewage treatment, etc.
From the environmental perspective it is clear that rural Nepal suffers from indoor pollution while urban Nepal is ravaged by vehicular pollution in the outdoors. Similarly, the overall environment is getting degraded due to the large scale deforestation mainly for firewood.
Forest
The other facet of indoor pollution which is caused by the extensive use firewood as the source of energy in the rural areas is the indiscriminate deforestation. In Nepal 76.1 percent of the population used firewood as a source for energy in FY 2006/7.[2] It is also obvious that this scale of deforestation results in washing out of topsoil, landslide, etc. thereby adversely impacting the overall environment of the country. The equation could be changed by increasing electricity consumption in the country, which today stands at 2.5%[3] manifesting very low consumption of electricity in the country – 69.289 kWh per capita per annum[4] which is quite low compared to European countries like Norway which consume more than 24,000 kWh per capita per annum.
Education
It is the privilege of the city children to have access to modern education facilities like information, communication technology. The rural kids don’t have access to these modern mediums of education and information, again due to unavailability of electricity in the rural areas.
Actually rural children do not even get time to study at home for lack of proper lighting. If they do, they will be wrecking their eyes due to dim light from kerosene lamp. On top of that they are exposed to respiratory and other diseases from the smoke of the kerosene lamp (on top of the indoor pollution from the kitchen). However, it should not be forgotten that the children whose parents can afford the “luxury” of kerosene lamps are lucky. There are areas in Nepal where people burn strips of pine wood (called “diyalo” in Nepali) for lighting purposes which smoke a lot more than the kerosene lamp and make the children, aspiring to be educated, fall sick.
Agriculture
It is no secret that agricultural production in Nepal could have been better – with multiple cropping, increased production of cash crop etc. but for lack of irrigation facilities. The main crop depends on unreliable monsoon rains and suffers due to vagaries of the weather. After one crop most of the land is left fallow. The problem is compounded due to unavailability of fertilizers in the timely fashion and their being too costly. Due to lack of proper cold storage facility (which can be ascribed to paucity of cost effective electricity) the farmer are forced to sell their produce at cheap prices.
Tourism
Although tourism is the major foreign currency earner of the country, it is not faring too well compared to even the smaller provinces of Sikkim or Goa in India.
Transportation and Industry
Bulk of the transportation system in the country is heavily dependent on imported fossil fuel that drains hard currency from the country while polluting the environment. Save for Manakamana cable car, there is no other medium of transport using Nepal’s hydropower. Trolley bus in the Kathmandu valley is about to come to a stop again and ropeway service from Hetauda is lying in disrepair.
The case of the industry is also similar to that of transport sector. The industries are suffering due to unreliable electricity supply and are not able to operate at full capacity. Most of them use imported fossil fuel as the main source of energy which pollutes the environment and also drains precious convertible foreign exchange. The cost of production of industries in Nepal is also high as they are dependent on costlier fossil fuel.
New Nepal
With the prudent use of its water resource, Nepal can go through a metamorphosis and a real new Nepal could emerge.
Environment and Health
In the new Nepal people will not fall sick, will not be forced to spend unnecessarily on medicine, nor will have to spend time and money in hospices unduly. The quantum of absenteeism from work due to sickness will be almost negligible. The life expectancy of both rural and urban Nepal will be comparable to that of countries like Japan. The life expectancy of people in rural areas, actually, will be higher than that of city-folks due to the quantum of natural exercise related to their work and lifestyle.
People will definitely wonder how such a revolutionary change will take place in the new Nepal. Because, in the new Nepal the entire country will be fully electrified – thanks to hydropower. Things like indoor pollution will be a thing of past as nobody will use firewood, animal and agro residue for cooking. Electric cookers will be extensively used for cooking purposes throughout the country. This will substantially reduce deforestation which will have salubrious impact on the environment including reduction in washing out of topsoil, landslide, etc. The environmental degradation caused by chimneys of the factories using fossil fuels will cease.
Further, the populace will get piped quality water in their homes which could be used for drinking directly from the tap – no problem of clean water and sanitation, no need to filter or boil. The health will also significantly improve due to absence of tail pipe emission – with the electrification of bulk of the transport services. Throughout the country modern healthcare facility will become available.
Forest
With no cooking done with firewood, indiscriminate deforestation will come to a stop. The forest cover of the country will increase dramatically. Non-timber forest products will not be exported in its raw form. Using the electricity only finished products or semi-finished non-timber forest products will be exported to the cities or foreign countries.
Education
Education will not be the privilege of children of rich and urban populace any more. Information communication technology will be all pervading and ubiquitous. Rural children will not need to study under the light of kerosene light or strips of pine wood and will not be wrecking their eyes or health. Even rural children will get to study or play for longer hours due to availability of electricity.
Agriculture
With the prudent use of water resources for irrigation purposes the command area under irrigation will cover over 90% of the arable land of Nepal and people will be using water efficient irrigation technology round the year and will be planting multiple crops in a year and benefiting from the cultivation of cash crop in the off season. After electricity becomes available in every nook and cranny of the country, the farmers will also be using electricity to lift water from rivers at the lower reaches to cultivate farms in the upper reaches or will beneficially use groundwater for farming.
Level of mechanization of farming will reach a new high and economic activities in the rural areas will increase by bounds. As animal reside and agro residue will not be burnt for domestic purposes, these will be used to generate energy as well as organic fertilizer. About 10% farmers will start organic farming and reap the benefit of export market for organic produce. Besides, with the increase in per capita generation and consumption of electricity in the country quality fertilizers will be produced in Nepal itself and will become cost effective as well available as and when necessary.
People in the rural areas will stop selling agricultural produce in its raw form. As cost effective electricity will become available in the villages, agro-processing industries will be established and will start exporting finished or semi-finished products to the cities or even aboard. The farmers will put the agro produce in cold storage and get better market price by selling at right time. Thanks to these, the standard of living, spurred by the increase in per capita rural income, will drastically improve. Emigration from the rural areas to the cities or abroad will become history. Revenue from remittance, unfortunately, will decrease as economic activities in the rural Nepal will increase and people will be gainfully employed in the countryside itself. This will also reduce disintegration of families, which is taking place in alarmingly large numbers due to foreign employment of the family members.
Tourism
Over and above the foreign tourists, even the domestic middle class will start enjoying water sports like rafting. All lakes and river network in the country will become accessible to the tourists, both domestic and foreign. Tourists will be afforded modern amenities throughout the country due to availability of electricity.
Transportation and Industry
There will not be any means of transport in the country that will belch thick black smoke. Electric trains will be running in the national highways like East West Highway and the Himalayan east west highway that is currently in the drawing board. In all north south highways too electric trains will be providing services clean and efficient services. No new roads will be built which uses fossil fuel burning vehicles both for passengers and cargo. In the terrains which pose difficulty with regards to construction of railway track, cable cars and ropeways will be providing environment friendly service. Mountains and hills with lush forest will not be ravaged to build road to provide transport services. In such areas too cable cars will be erected. This will save the countryside from landslides which is also caused by the extensive use of explosives during construction of the roads. Some of the major rivers will be used for navigation purposes and cost of transportation will decrease substantially in these areas.
Within cities, trolley bus service will be the norm in the trunk roads and ring roads (where the roads are wide). In the narrow roads and in the core city areas, only electric vehicles (both cars and bikes) and other non polluting modes of transport (like bicycle) will be allowed to ply. Fossil fuel import into Nepal will drastically shrink. People using fossil fuel driven cars will be paying penal taxes for polluting the environment.
Industries also will stop using fossil fuel like furnace oil as a source of energy for the production. The prices of finished products will substantially go down as the industries will be paying substantially low price for electric energy compared to fossil fuel. The industrial workers will also become healthier in the absence of fossil fuel generated pollution. Besides, new industries to produce fertilizers, cement, aluminum, etc. will be set up in the country due to availability of electricity cost effectively which will generate employment at a large scale.
Conclusion
It is indeed possible to bring a new Nepal into existence with the prudent use of Nepal’s water resources. What is needed is a vision and a nationalistic perspective. Besides, concerted efforts of all concerned is also imperative. All the stakeholders will have to work in tandem with their eyes firmly on this vision.
Published in the Civil Service Journal 2007
[1] Ministry of Population and environment (1998). Population Projection for Nepal, 1996-2016, Kathmandu, Nepal.
[2] Ministry of Finance (2007). Economic Survey 2006/7, Kathmandu, Nepal.
[3] Ministry of Finance (2007). Economic Survey 2006/7, Kathmandu, Nepal.
[4] NationMaster.com
Certain people equate water resource with hydropower, as if there is no other use of the water resource. The constant refrain of this category of people is that all the water flowing down the river “is waste of resource.” They forget that, for example, building a hydropower project at a particular site will preclude new irrigation works in the upstream areas (in order to ensure fixed quantum of water for the hydropower generation) as well as in the dewatered areas. Similarly, as both the hydropower and water sport like rafting compete for the use of particular sites, each is mutually exclusive to the other. Besides, there are many sources to generate energy from. But, to date no alternative to water has been found – for drinking, sanitation, religious and irrigation purposes.
In this background, best use of water resource needs to be decided after seriously contemplating the matter. Before laying out the vision for new Nepal from the perspective of water resource, this paper will make an attempt to describe what the existing Nepal is like.
Existing Nepal
The state of existing Nepal needs to be analyzed from a number of perspectives like, environment and health, forest, education, agriculture, tourism, transport and industry.
Environment and Health
Describing how healthy people in present Nepal are is not an easy job as the concept is beyond quantification. Healthiness of people depend on how frequently people fall sick, how much is spent on medicine, time and money spent in hospices, quantum of absenteeism from work due to sickness and similar other factors which are not easy to quantify. However, life expectancy at birth is a good indicator to assess the quality of people’s health. Under a study conducted by the then Ministry of Population and Environment, the life expectancy was determined at 58.9 years.[1] Compared to 73.6 years of life expectancy in Japan, life expectancy in Nepal is very low. As this number is the average life expectancy of people throughout Nepal, the same will be quite low for rural Nepal – less than 50 years in places like Mugu, Humla, etc. – while in the cities the life expectancy will be a little higher than the national average – above 60 years.
The health of the rural populace is adversely affected by indoor pollution (due to the use of firewood, animal/agro residue for cooking and kerosene lamp for lighting), lack of clean drinking water and sanitation, etc. On the other hand rural people also don’t have access to quality health services for lack of electricity – most of the modern healthcare equipment need electricity to operate. Whereas the city people too don’t fare well because of high level of outdoor pollution from fossil fuel burning vehicles, low quality of piped drinking water, lack of sewage treatment, etc.
From the environmental perspective it is clear that rural Nepal suffers from indoor pollution while urban Nepal is ravaged by vehicular pollution in the outdoors. Similarly, the overall environment is getting degraded due to the large scale deforestation mainly for firewood.
Forest
The other facet of indoor pollution which is caused by the extensive use firewood as the source of energy in the rural areas is the indiscriminate deforestation. In Nepal 76.1 percent of the population used firewood as a source for energy in FY 2006/7.[2] It is also obvious that this scale of deforestation results in washing out of topsoil, landslide, etc. thereby adversely impacting the overall environment of the country. The equation could be changed by increasing electricity consumption in the country, which today stands at 2.5%[3] manifesting very low consumption of electricity in the country – 69.289 kWh per capita per annum[4] which is quite low compared to European countries like Norway which consume more than 24,000 kWh per capita per annum.
Education
It is the privilege of the city children to have access to modern education facilities like information, communication technology. The rural kids don’t have access to these modern mediums of education and information, again due to unavailability of electricity in the rural areas.
Actually rural children do not even get time to study at home for lack of proper lighting. If they do, they will be wrecking their eyes due to dim light from kerosene lamp. On top of that they are exposed to respiratory and other diseases from the smoke of the kerosene lamp (on top of the indoor pollution from the kitchen). However, it should not be forgotten that the children whose parents can afford the “luxury” of kerosene lamps are lucky. There are areas in Nepal where people burn strips of pine wood (called “diyalo” in Nepali) for lighting purposes which smoke a lot more than the kerosene lamp and make the children, aspiring to be educated, fall sick.
Agriculture
It is no secret that agricultural production in Nepal could have been better – with multiple cropping, increased production of cash crop etc. but for lack of irrigation facilities. The main crop depends on unreliable monsoon rains and suffers due to vagaries of the weather. After one crop most of the land is left fallow. The problem is compounded due to unavailability of fertilizers in the timely fashion and their being too costly. Due to lack of proper cold storage facility (which can be ascribed to paucity of cost effective electricity) the farmer are forced to sell their produce at cheap prices.
Tourism
Although tourism is the major foreign currency earner of the country, it is not faring too well compared to even the smaller provinces of Sikkim or Goa in India.
Transportation and Industry
Bulk of the transportation system in the country is heavily dependent on imported fossil fuel that drains hard currency from the country while polluting the environment. Save for Manakamana cable car, there is no other medium of transport using Nepal’s hydropower. Trolley bus in the Kathmandu valley is about to come to a stop again and ropeway service from Hetauda is lying in disrepair.
The case of the industry is also similar to that of transport sector. The industries are suffering due to unreliable electricity supply and are not able to operate at full capacity. Most of them use imported fossil fuel as the main source of energy which pollutes the environment and also drains precious convertible foreign exchange. The cost of production of industries in Nepal is also high as they are dependent on costlier fossil fuel.
New Nepal
With the prudent use of its water resource, Nepal can go through a metamorphosis and a real new Nepal could emerge.
Environment and Health
In the new Nepal people will not fall sick, will not be forced to spend unnecessarily on medicine, nor will have to spend time and money in hospices unduly. The quantum of absenteeism from work due to sickness will be almost negligible. The life expectancy of both rural and urban Nepal will be comparable to that of countries like Japan. The life expectancy of people in rural areas, actually, will be higher than that of city-folks due to the quantum of natural exercise related to their work and lifestyle.
People will definitely wonder how such a revolutionary change will take place in the new Nepal. Because, in the new Nepal the entire country will be fully electrified – thanks to hydropower. Things like indoor pollution will be a thing of past as nobody will use firewood, animal and agro residue for cooking. Electric cookers will be extensively used for cooking purposes throughout the country. This will substantially reduce deforestation which will have salubrious impact on the environment including reduction in washing out of topsoil, landslide, etc. The environmental degradation caused by chimneys of the factories using fossil fuels will cease.
Further, the populace will get piped quality water in their homes which could be used for drinking directly from the tap – no problem of clean water and sanitation, no need to filter or boil. The health will also significantly improve due to absence of tail pipe emission – with the electrification of bulk of the transport services. Throughout the country modern healthcare facility will become available.
Forest
With no cooking done with firewood, indiscriminate deforestation will come to a stop. The forest cover of the country will increase dramatically. Non-timber forest products will not be exported in its raw form. Using the electricity only finished products or semi-finished non-timber forest products will be exported to the cities or foreign countries.
Education
Education will not be the privilege of children of rich and urban populace any more. Information communication technology will be all pervading and ubiquitous. Rural children will not need to study under the light of kerosene light or strips of pine wood and will not be wrecking their eyes or health. Even rural children will get to study or play for longer hours due to availability of electricity.
Agriculture
With the prudent use of water resources for irrigation purposes the command area under irrigation will cover over 90% of the arable land of Nepal and people will be using water efficient irrigation technology round the year and will be planting multiple crops in a year and benefiting from the cultivation of cash crop in the off season. After electricity becomes available in every nook and cranny of the country, the farmers will also be using electricity to lift water from rivers at the lower reaches to cultivate farms in the upper reaches or will beneficially use groundwater for farming.
Level of mechanization of farming will reach a new high and economic activities in the rural areas will increase by bounds. As animal reside and agro residue will not be burnt for domestic purposes, these will be used to generate energy as well as organic fertilizer. About 10% farmers will start organic farming and reap the benefit of export market for organic produce. Besides, with the increase in per capita generation and consumption of electricity in the country quality fertilizers will be produced in Nepal itself and will become cost effective as well available as and when necessary.
People in the rural areas will stop selling agricultural produce in its raw form. As cost effective electricity will become available in the villages, agro-processing industries will be established and will start exporting finished or semi-finished products to the cities or even aboard. The farmers will put the agro produce in cold storage and get better market price by selling at right time. Thanks to these, the standard of living, spurred by the increase in per capita rural income, will drastically improve. Emigration from the rural areas to the cities or abroad will become history. Revenue from remittance, unfortunately, will decrease as economic activities in the rural Nepal will increase and people will be gainfully employed in the countryside itself. This will also reduce disintegration of families, which is taking place in alarmingly large numbers due to foreign employment of the family members.
Tourism
Over and above the foreign tourists, even the domestic middle class will start enjoying water sports like rafting. All lakes and river network in the country will become accessible to the tourists, both domestic and foreign. Tourists will be afforded modern amenities throughout the country due to availability of electricity.
Transportation and Industry
There will not be any means of transport in the country that will belch thick black smoke. Electric trains will be running in the national highways like East West Highway and the Himalayan east west highway that is currently in the drawing board. In all north south highways too electric trains will be providing services clean and efficient services. No new roads will be built which uses fossil fuel burning vehicles both for passengers and cargo. In the terrains which pose difficulty with regards to construction of railway track, cable cars and ropeways will be providing environment friendly service. Mountains and hills with lush forest will not be ravaged to build road to provide transport services. In such areas too cable cars will be erected. This will save the countryside from landslides which is also caused by the extensive use of explosives during construction of the roads. Some of the major rivers will be used for navigation purposes and cost of transportation will decrease substantially in these areas.
Within cities, trolley bus service will be the norm in the trunk roads and ring roads (where the roads are wide). In the narrow roads and in the core city areas, only electric vehicles (both cars and bikes) and other non polluting modes of transport (like bicycle) will be allowed to ply. Fossil fuel import into Nepal will drastically shrink. People using fossil fuel driven cars will be paying penal taxes for polluting the environment.
Industries also will stop using fossil fuel like furnace oil as a source of energy for the production. The prices of finished products will substantially go down as the industries will be paying substantially low price for electric energy compared to fossil fuel. The industrial workers will also become healthier in the absence of fossil fuel generated pollution. Besides, new industries to produce fertilizers, cement, aluminum, etc. will be set up in the country due to availability of electricity cost effectively which will generate employment at a large scale.
Conclusion
It is indeed possible to bring a new Nepal into existence with the prudent use of Nepal’s water resources. What is needed is a vision and a nationalistic perspective. Besides, concerted efforts of all concerned is also imperative. All the stakeholders will have to work in tandem with their eyes firmly on this vision.
Published in the Civil Service Journal 2007
[1] Ministry of Population and environment (1998). Population Projection for Nepal, 1996-2016, Kathmandu, Nepal.
[2] Ministry of Finance (2007). Economic Survey 2006/7, Kathmandu, Nepal.
[3] Ministry of Finance (2007). Economic Survey 2006/7, Kathmandu, Nepal.
[4] NationMaster.com
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