It seems as though the political bickering is coming to an end, after the realization of the importance to preserve the eight party coalition government. However, the damage has already been done.
The blame game after the postponement of elections and continuous Maoist intimidation (including the attack of a police post in Banke and the burning of state owned NEA in Bardiya), has most certainly strained the relationship amongst coalition partners.
The Congress and the Maoists are poles apart; but, they cannot afford to remain rigid. Koirala has gambled his last card by inducting the Maoists into the government and, the Maoists know there are no other viable, legitimate alternatives to the present set up. The success and failure for both Koirala and Prachanda largely depends on their commitment to adhere to the Comprehensive Peace Agreement signed in November 2006.
Nonetheless, a coldness has already sunk into the eight party alliance. It might be realistic at this stage to conclude that the unity is superficial and perhaps just a façade. While it is imperative to keep the eight party alliance intact within the government (to conduct the polls in the near future), it is conceivable that the differences amongst the electoral alliances will eventually lead to a division amongst the coalition partners of the present government.
Observing the political sequences over the last month, there are four incidents that are likely to give shape to Nepali politics over the next few months. These incidents include: the call for a left unity during Lenin Day, the axing of Constitutional Monarchy in the party stature by RJP (and then RPP), and the Madeshi alliance initiated by NSP. These three incidents will compel the Janjatis to open a fourth front. The crucial dividing factor is that theoretically, the end result of the constituent assembly elections may not be "politically" acceptable to all.
The call for unity among leftist forces in the country should not come as a surprise. This was predictable from day one, and it was only a matter of time before this left unity call was initiated and materialized. Much of the leftist alliance hinges on how the UML demonstrates its flexibility to unite with the Maoists and other fringe leftist parties. In retrospect, the leftist unity poses some tough questions to the UML and the Maoists.
Even though the UML is seen as one of the most vociferous proponents of republicanism in the country after February 1st, technically speaking, it had never removed republicanism from its party statute. In fact, the UML had strategically accepted constitutional monarchy as a base to consolidate the cause for republicanism in the future. It may be possible that the social construct of the party leadership and its rank and file, will ultimately obstruct the desired goal of leftist unity.
Although the left might unite over the issue of republicanism, it will be intriguing to observe whether or not Madhav Nepal will commit a political hara-kiri by forging a long term alliance with the Maoists. An alliance with the Maoists most definitely will mark the downfall of the UML and moderate leftist politics. Can the UML afford to deviate from moderate left? Equally important, will the Maoists ink a compromise transient from their ideology of radical communism?
The Axing of Constitutional Monarchy from the party statures of the RJP and RPP are also symbolic. Following the RJP's move, journalists and poltical pundits were quick to call for the early abdication of King Gyanendra. However, the Royalists failed to grasp the political situation when RJP President SB Thapa axed Constitutional Monarchy from the party's statute. With the axing of constitutional monarchy from the party statute, both RJP and RPP are in a position to align with the Congress for elections.
Theoretically speaking, the strategic move initiated by Thapa, makes his party an ideological equal to the Congress. The survival of democratic parties will be determined by their inclination to forge political alliances, which oppose and challenge the left wing parties during elections. It is important that this democratic force, unanimously devises electoral alliances and stratagems which keep the Maoists as their focal point.
The survival of democratic discourse depends on the unity of democratic forces initiated by Koirala. Gopal Kranti, a Maoist leader in Dhankuta, voiced his party's opinion when he declared the ethnic movement in Nepal was "dollar funded". The notion of self-determination, based on ethnicity, as espoused by the Maoists, has become their biggest political nightmare. It must be noted that the Janjatis and Madeshis supported the idea of 'self determination' with the idea of promoting and preserving their religion, culture and an increased participation in the State.
However, communism as propagated by Karl Marx and Hegel, advances the philosophy of an 'end of history', which basically envisions a classless society, that directly contravenes with what the ethnic minorities actually want. The biggest threat to the ethnic minorities is not from centrist democratic forces. It is the communists that are aiming to destroy and cleanse the existing socio-cultural fabric of the country.
The Madeshi and the Janjatis are both initiating dialogue to form an electoral alliance, as they fear such repercussions. However, they seem to be equally disappointed with the centrist forces.
Nonetheless, the presence of Pradip Giri in Delhi as a facilitator and Upendra Yadav's revelation that his forum was ideologically closer to the centrist forces, must have comforted some of the nervous democrats in Kathmandu. The Janjati front is yet to emerge as an electoral option but it might be prudent to note, that with time, even their allegiance will be closer to the centrist forces.
RELATED LINKS:
A Democratic Alliance, Accountable to the People http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2007/05/democratic-alliance-accountable-to.html
After a Year of "Loktantra" - Is it finally time for a Democratic Alliance? http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2007/04/after-year-of-loktantra-is-it-finally.html
Bahunists and Bahunism - A mini-Dissertation on the Caretakers of Nepal's Feudal Tradition http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2007/03/bahunists-and-bahunism-mini.html
The King, the Populists, the Herders and the Sheep http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2007/02/king-populists-herders-and-sheep.html
4 comments:
Evil alliances of convenience (SPAM)will bring nothing but tear this nation right from its seam.
Just be cautious and warned- never try to fish,see or suppose more than necessary. They are shallow.
Thapa points out a very key development in the step towards forming an alliance against leftist aggression. Both the RJP and RPP are now ideologically in alignment with the Nepali Congress.
The leftist loonies should watch out. If they think they are going to win this game by terror, they have another thing coming!
"The survival of democratic discourse depends on the unity of democratic forces" - very well put. However, whether these democratic forces will unite in time and in an effective manner is another question. Observing the difficulty that the NC is having in uniting the Koirala and Deuba factions, the signs are not good. Perhaps Girija Koirala and Surya Bdr Thapa, as senior political leaders, need to get together and spearhead this unification effort. Agreed that RJP is not part of SPAM, but that in itself gives it the moral authority required to break the present unification deadlock.
Nepal is going through an extraordinarily difficult period. The graciousness and courage of it people is not being matched by the behaviour of its rulers nor has it been in the past. Nepal is facing a potentially disastrous social revolution that threatens to erase its historical traditions and culture. Already one foreign power insisted that the word Hindu should be banished from the new Nepali Constitution, a demand to which the government acceded. Are the Maoists and this great power so completely at odds over Nepal's future or are both merely seeking to substitute their own preferences for Nepal's existing Hindu identity? The new dispensation poised to replace an allegedly reprehensible past is infinitely worse and has already been rejected by people across the former communist countries. Nepal's sovereignty is also in jeopardy. For better for worse, Nepal's sovereignty inheres in its monarchy and required of it a sagacity and far-sightedness that it failed to demonstrate. The next few months are likely to be momentous for Nepal and the international community needs to stop empty posturing and honour the promise of free and fair elections. At present that seems unlikely because those who have forced their way into mainstream politics at gunpoint are cheerfully insisting that intimidation and terror will continue. The international community is compounding the bad faith of inflicting Maoism on Nepal by pretending that the promises made to the people of Nepal are being honoured. This merely adds insult to injury. And those who are quietly exulting at their apparent success in taking control of Nepal's destiny beware that the whole of South Asia will pay a terrible in blood should their foolishness lead to a bitter regional contest over Nepal's political future. Nepal's status quo ante will then be recalled like the Cambodian paradise before King Sihanouk was overthrown by mass murderers, also proclaiming their faith in Maoism!
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