Real Obstacle for Elections – The Maoists

(Courtesy: Zizimous)

I was aghast to read that Dr.Baburam Bhattarai, a senior Maoist leader declaring, "The Maoists would launch a new revolution if his party lost the elections," during his election campaign rally in Bhachhek, Gorkha recently. Furthermore, Prachanda, the commander of the so called Peoples Liberation Army has been reported by Kantipur Daily to have reached some form of an agreement with the UML to secure his victory from constituency number 10 in Kathmandu. What this signifies is that the Maoists are caught in a serious dilemma about facing elections. Most importantly, the silence of the Maoists in the recent days suggests the crisis fermenting in their camp. In a free and fair election, the Maoists stand no chance of securing a majority.

I remain very much a pessimist - I doubt the elections will happen. There are three things that need to go wrong for the elections not to happen and about 30 things that need to happen correctly if the elections are really to take place. First, the Maoist insurgency is not just a Nepali phenomenon but it's a global and a regional phenomenon. The Maoists have been aided by international leftist organisations and of course the COMPOSA and the CPI-M in India. Having said this, the Maoists came into an agreement with the SPA as a tactical move to capture state power through the 12 Point Agreement.

However, if the Maoists fail to secure a majority in forthcoming elections, the Maoist party will not be in a position to implement their revolutionary ideals. The whole purpose or the rationale of participating in the transitional phase and participating in the elections would prove futile if the Maoists can't secure a majority and implement their outdated dogmatic ideals. So, in a perfect situation you will have elections that are semi free and fair and the Maoists will reject the results.

On the other hand, the Maoists will not want to be in a position where they are singled out for the deferral of the polls. Hence, they will participate in the polls but they will want to dictate the terms and the conditions of what they define as free and fair elections. In a free and fair election, the Maoists know they stand no chance of winning. Even Prachanda has been forced to negate an agreement with the UML to ensure his victory from Kathmandu where the UML have a strong base.

If the Maoists lose these elections, their revolution and of course the leadership will be in utter crisis. To secure a majority in the forthcoming elections, the Maoists would have to capture booths and hold farcical polls but then other political parties will either boycott or not agree to the results of such polls. In any event, the Maoists want to capture power - they have to or they face a crisis, both internal and external in nature. Prachanda and his comrades very well know that time is against them, and the comrades believe the present uncertainty provides them the only realistic opportunity to capture state power.

However, it is critical to understand what actually motivates the political decisions taken by the Maoists. Dr.Bhattarai is fundamentally correct when he opines the Maoists will change the course of the economy when the Maoists come to power. The Maoists aim not just to change the structural functions of the economy but they also envisage a classless society – free from social, cultural and religious assertions. For the Maoists to be in a position to implement such rigid and radical ideology, a majority is a precondition. Fortunately, that is not possible.

Similarly, the Maoists have sold lofty dreams to their cadres by promising to implement their radical brand of communism. Therefore, if the Maoists lose these elections, not only will they face desertions internally, the Maoists would also face the possible threat of external isolation. Both the RIM and COMPOSA were provided an explanation by Nepali Maoists that their participation in the peace process and the election was a part of the strategy to capture state power. However, if the Maoists lose these elections, they will have to opt either for a divorce with their mother parties( RIM or COMPOSA) or the Maoists will be forced to make some unpleasant decisions that will result in some form of violence in the name of a revolution.

The crisis the Maoists would endure if they lose the elections is of a far greater magnitude than that is understood by the larger populace. The YCL has an annual budget of Rs 1 billion as reported by their chairman. To sustain such an enormous organization; great resources are required. A vast majority of the resources generated by the Maoists' for the elections has been collected through illegitimate means such as abduction, intimidation and coercion.

Concurrently, the Maoists are also guilty of orchestrating some the worst crimes that often resulted in unimaginable human rights abuses. The people in general are buoyed by the prospect of the polls and have given in into the intimidation of the Maoists for the sake of peace and democracy. However, the Maoists know that the longer they remain a part of the status quo their chances of getting exposed for who they actually stand for is higher. Hence, they need to capture power to avoid further embarrassing exposures.

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Smoke and Mirrors - Why Nepal's Constituent Assembly Elections Won't Happen in April 2008
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