Electoral Facade

(Courtesy: Zizimous)

With less than three months left for elections, recent political developments suggest it is becoming increasingly apparent that elections are so far only a distant mirage. There are two critical points of analysis that is being repeatedly ignored and those are directly correlated with the prospects of timely elections happening: the Terai problem and the intent of the Maoist leadership.

The Maoists through the effective usage of Home Minister KP Sitaula have ambushed the Nepali Congress (NC) into a state of paralysis. After the agitation in the Terai early last year, a majority of the political parties lost their base there temporarily. The Indians ever since then had been cajoling the prime minister to move the NC in Terai and fill in the political vacuum created. As a result of continued ignorance demonstrated by the NC, the Indians were forced to glue together a group of moderate Terai leaders to fulfill two purposes - neutralize the radicalization of Terai and to fill in the political vacuum.

Credible information suggests that Maoists are left with only about ten functioning district committees. An influential Terai leader confided that Swiss diplomat Gunther had been approaching various Terai factions repeatedly to work out a possible alliance between the Maoists and the Madeshi groups. However, Gunther's initiatives were rejected downright by the agitating Terai groups because they sensed his initiative as a ploy that was ultimately aimed at aiding the Maoists to regain the lost ground in the Terai. Gunther's term was over without his being able to have his initiative materialised.

But Maoists also independently pursued the move. Maoist Foreign Affairs Chief CP Gajurel met a senior leader of the Janatantrik Terai Mukti Morcha (Goit) last summer when Goit was critically ill. However, Gajurel failed to work out an alliance between the Maoists and the Goit group. Nonetheless, due to the fluidity of the situation in the Terai, the Maoists are now in their last phase of preparation to reenter Terai and regain the lost ground. This is because almost 50 percent of the electoral constituencies are in the Terai and it is pivotal for any party who wishes to win a majority in the elections to win a substantive number of seats there.

But elections are impossible without solving the Terai problem. What we have to understand is that if the elections are held without solving the problem; the people of the Terai would have lost an opportunity forever. And it is very unlikely that the Terai leaders would cow-tow to the threat posed by the SPA and participate in the elections.

India who is a large stakeholder in the Terai affairs would also prefer that the Terai fiasco be solved before the elections. And the Indians know it very well that if the problem is not solved before the elections, it will never be solved after the elections. But the interest of the major three parties in Terai clashes. None of them would want to go to the poll if their position is not better than the other's. More over, they have avoided taking a clear stand on the issues since that may weaken their electoral prospects. That means the big three - Maoists, NC and the UML are in no mood to solve the problem.

It is also equally important to scrutinize the intent of the Maoist leadership. On the 1st of January, Prachanda released a statement demanding that the PLA should be ready to use their weapons impromptu in the immediate future. Due to continued absence of government authority at all levels; the Maoists are consistently seeking avenues to overwhelm the state. Therefore, it is but natural for them to make the inevitable u-turn and shy away from elections yet again.

The intelligence apparatus of the Nepal Police that has presided by no other person than Sitaula fears that Maoists may be deploying the Young Communist League (YCL) cadre in rural areas and the villages to capture voting booths at the 11th hour, so that; the international community and the Nepal Army will be in no position to thwart their booth capturing designs.

If the Maoist leadership comes to a conclusion that the election option is not worth the risk, the Maoists will start galvanizing the issue of PLA-NA integration as the primary issue to scuttle the polls. And succeed they will because, the NC and the UML owe their accession to power to the Maoists. Any fracture in the Seven Party Alliance (SPA) alliance would threaten GP Koirala's position as the PM and the Maoists will exploit his weakness for power to fulfill their objectives.

Although nobody has claimed the responsibility of the bomb blast after the SPA meeting in Khulamanch the other day, all fingers point at the Maoists. This is because the intelligence agencies and the security agencies have received reports confirming that the Maoists in their last CWC have devised two strategies. First, posture as if the party is ready to go to the polls. Second, make all necessary measures to scuttle the polls and galvanize the situation to the party's favor and portray the Maoist party as the alternate to the Koirala government.

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