Checkmate or Comeback King?

(Courtesy: Chiran J. Thapa)

After a year's hiatus, the Monarch seems to have abandoned his posture of profound reticence and reclusiveness. The Monarch's outspokenness, however, comes at a paradoxical period. While the ruling alliance of political parties are getting close to putting an end to the Royal institution, support for the Monarchy seems to be growing in contrast.

With the signing of the 8 point pact between the Madheshi leaders and the Transitional Governing Authority (TGA), the turmoil in Terai has supposedly been bottled and has made way for the Constituent Assembly election (CA) in April. Following a 23 point agreement signed between the Seven Party Alliance (SPA) and the Maoists in December of last year, the transitional parliament passed a bill to declare Nepal a “Federal Democratic Republic” and abolish Monarchy. This decision, however, is set to be implemented only after the CA.

Prior to this decision, not only was the Monarch ostracized but the ruling alliance systematically clipped the royal power and prerogatives. The Royal palaces along with the fortune inherited by the current Monarch from the late Monarch’s family were nationalized. With all the weakening actions taken against the Monarch, it appeared that he was virtually confined within the Palace walls and was awaiting the verdict of abolition.

But amidst the spectre of abolition, the Monarch has seemingly come out of seclusion. Taking a cautious and calibrated approach, the Monarch issued a very brief statement on the occasion of National Democracy day. He had, however, broken his silence prior to that by granting audiences to two journalists (Hari Lamsal of Rastravani weekly and Yoshio Hanada of Yomiuri Shimbun). Both of whom, immediately published the transcripts of the royal tête-à-tête.

The Monarch has resurfaced at a time when opinion polls are revealing growing support for the Monarchy. According to a very recent nationwide survey entitled "Nepal's contemporary political situation", support for the Monarchy has rebounded a bit after steeply plunging from 81% in 2004 to the lowest ebb of 45% in post April uprising period. The survey showed that the support has now grown to almost 50%.

Another very recent online opinion poll taken by Nepal news/Nepali Times corroborated with the survey results. Almost 57% of the respondents preferred to retain the institution of Monarchy.

For many, however, this surge of support comes as no surprise. Growing anarchy, mounting ethnic tensions, rampant border encroachment, pervasive foreign interference and grave insecurity have fuelled widespread disenchantment against TGA. Acute fuel and food shortages coupled with prolonged hours of black-outs have only bred resentment. And the recidivist tendencies and the twice postponed CA have eroded TGA's credibility and legitimacy even further.

Perhaps sensing an opportune moment, even the low-lying Monarchists have resurfaced with vigour. For the first time after the April uprising, erstwhile home-minister Kamal Thapa’s party RPP-Nepal staged a protest rally in the capital during which Thapa roared his support for Monarchy. And in the first week of February, 18 Political parties met in Kathmandu to form a united front to support the Monarchy.

Not just the loyal Royalists, but support for the Monarchy is pouring in from some unlikely corners. Talking to reporters during his birthday bash, the only surviving founder of the Nepali Congress - former Prime Minister Krishna Prasad Bhattarai, emphasized the indispensability of Monarchy. He further predicted that the institution would live on for the next three hundred years.

Presumably, there are others riding the same bandwagon. The trio widely known as KGB (Khum bahadur khadka, Govinda Raj Joshi, and Bijay kumar Ghachadar) from the same party are believed to be advocating for the continuation of Monarchy. And word has it that, there are quite a few others of the same party that have huddled around the trio. The Prime Minister - Giraja Prasad Koirala's daughter too has exhibited alacrity for retaining the Monarchy.

Interestingly, even the Maoist boss-man Pushpa Dahal's recent parleys with the hardcore Monarchists have the pundits speculating a crown-communist collusion.

Besides the support at the national level, some analysts seem convinced that the international community has changed its mind too. They believe that international actors are alarmed by the emergence of new intractable problems. And in hushed tones, they privately link the mess to the political vacuum created by a sidelined Monarchy.

Case in point is the International Crisis Group's (ICG) assessment. Following the April uprising, ICG's assessments had rarely acknowledged Monarchy as a significant factor in national politics. But, in its most recent country report, it has conceded to the fact that the Palace is a power centre none could ignore.

Others translate the lackadaisical response to the Monarch's recent outspokenness as an indicator of external support. The leaders, who went bonkers over Monarch's religious visits and previous statements, have hardly spewed any rancour this time around. Even the truculent Maoist boss-man's response was effete. Rather, it sounded more like a slap on the wrist. Mildly criticizing the Monarch, Dahal simply signalled that alien forces were supporting the Monarch.

Perhaps Dahal was hinting at the Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP). Speaking at a conference on "democracy and conflict resolution in Asia," the national spokesperson for BJP - Lal Krishna Advani, had recently spelled out the need to preserve constitutional Monarchy and the Hindu identity of Nepal. Saying that Monarchy was the symbol of national unity and identity of Nepal, Advani even lashed out at his own government for remaining apathetic and allowing the communists to gain an upper hand.

Since India wields enormous influence in Nepal, analysts predict that the support for the Monarchy pronounced by the Indian juggernauts will most likely have an impact on the balance of power. Even more promising for the Monarch could be the forthcoming visit of a BJP delegation. Under the leadership of its chairman- Rajnath Singh, this delegation is scheduled to arrive in Kathmandu soon. Reports have it that the BJP's primary agenda will be to promote the restoration of Constitutional Monarchy and re-declaration of Nepal as a Hindu Kingdom.

Certainly, the Monarch must be counting on BJP’s support to re-hoist the banner of Monarchy. But it appears that he is hedging his bets mostly on the Nepali people. His faith on the Nepali People is evinced by what he told Hari Lamsal during the tête-à-tête. The Monarch is quoted to have said –“Nepali people have such large hearts that anybody could find shelter there.”

Analysts have conjectured that the Monarch might have taken inference from the Maoists' ascendancy to power. They speculate that the rationale behind the Monarch’s conviction is: if a bunch that were once branded as barbaric terrorists by the entire world could be embraced and ensconced in the power pedestal, then why can’t there be a reprieve for the Monarchy?

Others believe that the Monarch may still have a trump card up his sleeve. Analysts point to what the Monarch told the journalists. In his words they find a subtle hint of a tri-partite agreement between the SPA, India and the Monarch prior to re-instating the previously dissolved parliament. If there was such an arrangement, then it could possibly change the dynamics of the game.

And then there are pundits who are quick to link the Monarch’s comeback to his astrological birth chart. The tabloids have often written about the Monarch’s astoundingly strong birth chart configurations. Supposedly, even that of the Queen is very strong. The two fortuitous enthronements and the birth dates of the royal couple are the obvious expositions. The Monarch’s birth date happens to be 7/7/1947 and Queen’s is Bikram Samvat 2007, Falgun 7. In a country where coincidences are indelibly associated with the supernatural, all the lucky number sevens in the royal couple's charts leave a lot of room for conjectures.

But, despite the strong birth charts, two fortuitous enthronements, and indicators of growing support, the battle for the Monarchy is far from over. First, the republican order has already been hammered out by the TGA. And, it will require a lot more than a strategy of hope, reliance on Hindu deities or star positioning to reverse that arrangement. Second, it will also need to outlive Gorakhnath's curse on the Shah dynasty – which according to the legend premonishes the demise of the dynasty after the 10th heir of the Late King Prithvi Narayan Shah, who happens to be Dipendra.

Nevertheless, whether the current trends reflect a royal resurgence or a moribund monarchy, the fact of the matter is: the institution is hardly Nepal's gravest malady. And although fervently touted by the current ruling alliance, neither is the CA the panacea.

In truth, Nepal has been destabilized and pauperized by a litany of other afflictions. So what Nepal direly needs a collective effort of all the major political forces to pull the country out of the current abyss. And for Nepal to inch forward, it primarily demands an inclusive and constructive engagement for committed unity. For, unity is the only sustainable option for the country's progress. Without unity, Nepal will remain mired in a vicious cycle of conflict for years to come. Due to which - the idea of a Nepali state will be imperilled. And of course, without Nepal, neither can the Monarch make a comeback nor will a New Nepal come into fruition.

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