Smoke and Mirrors - Why Nepal's Constituent Assembly Elections Won't Happen in April 2008

(Courtesy: Comrade Libre)

Under ordinary circumstances, "unpredictable," and "uncertain," are terms that ring synonymous with Nepal's politics. But there is one aspect of politics in Nepal that is completely predictable and totally certain: There is absolutely no chance that the Nepali people will see elections to a constituent assembly by April 2008, if ever. The reasons are varied and many, but the fundamental cause is this - the Maoists have done (and will continue to do) everything in their power to prevent elections from taking place.

Almost two and a half years after a Seven Party Alliance and the Maoists (together, SPAM) were empowered to tame Nepal's overextended regal influence, engage in meaningful peace negotiations, and hold constituent assembly elections, the results are at best, mediocre.

Beating a dead horse

In short, Nepal's interim coalition government remains hostage to the notion of peace on Maoist terms and has no credible recourse (or contingency) to maneuver into a more plausible agenda. Predictable as the future chain of events were in April 2005, Nepal's mainstream politicians (and it's intelligentsia) chose to take the starry eyed, naive path to peace and democracy - both of which remain elusive theoretical terms to be abused as the audience and time sees fit.

In fairness, some of the components that enabled an active Monarch (e.g., direct ties to the Army through the Office of the Principal Military Secretariat, the Raj Parisad, etc.) have been curtailed. However, more essential drivers such as overall political ineptitude, decaying security, loss of national identity and overall illiberal democracy, persist. While the image of a Monarch with his wings clipped is often paraded for populist consumption the image of a corrupt, self-serving, and archaic political class (that invites political intervention), has seen little in the way of positive change.

Maoist sympathizers and political class apologists default to their thesis that much progress has been made because "at least, the country is not at war." This line of thought although correct, is incomplete, inadequate and severely short-sighted. To the contrary, given the tensions that appeasing the Maoists have birthed, the prospect of a much larger (armed) conflict now features on Nepal's immediate horizon.

Another civil war brewing

Maoist appeasement at the cost of Madhesi neglect will be the SPAM coalition's Achilles' heel. The message on the "street" is that attention at the local, national and international levels is best garnered when the philosophy of armed struggle (and "power though the barrel of a gun") is operationalized.

Many of the armed factions in Nepal's south are splinter groups from the Maoist umbrella. Even the Madhesi People's Rights Forum (MPRF - now a registered political party led by Upendra Yadav) shares close ideological ties with Nepal's Maoists. In fact, the points of contention between organizations like the MPRF and the Maoists are much less grounded in political ideology than in ethnicity/identity based politics.

As conflicts around the globe have shown, armed indoctrination and ethnicity based politics make for a particularly explosive mix. Add to this Indian sympathy for the Madhesi people (as a policy instrument), and an "explosion" is near certain. A cursory review of the history of the Kosovar Albanians provides valuable insight into one potential outcome to Nepal's perennial political crisis.

Basically, the ethnicity based politics the Maoists preyed on as part of their power grab has come back to haunt them. The people of the Madhes see no value to a Bahun-led, Pahadi dominated Maoist entity, speaking on behalf of the Madhesi people.

For many Madhesis (and Pahadis alike) this is a positive sign because despite all the populist rhetoric and Maoist highhandedness, at least one group in Nepal has risen to the occasion of checking Maoist aggression.

But for the Maoists, Madhesi opposition is the clearest, most present form of danger to the Maoists' rise to illegitimate power. Maoist leader, Pushpa Kamal Dahal's reference to an alliance between "Nationalists" and "Maoists" is but another utilitarian tact, designed to exploit growing Madhesi-Pahadi tensions.

The Maoists' shifting gears to nationalism (after obediently bowing to Sita Ram Yechuri in Nepal's parliament, after feeding off of Indian hospitality and funds for the better part of their armed struggle) rings hollow. Unfortunately though, the Maoists are possibly the best of the worst on a long list of Nepali politicians who feel it necessary to consult with their Indian counterparts on all issues, be they sovereign or bilateral in nature. At least Maoist consultations are limited to dicussions on how to usurp state power.

Regardless, nationalism as a Maoist policy agenda equates to a common front against Indian "expansionsim" and ultimately confrontation with the Madhesi people. The Maoist experiment with nationalism reeks of desperation and deserves no serious consideration. Those who would revel at the Maoists' suggestion should first consider the extent to which the Maoists themselves have compromised Nepal's soverignty. Only then can the question of whether the Maoists are serious be answered.

SPAM neglect and obduracy

To the Madhesi people's credit, they have shown tremendous courage and resilience. Especially since the majority of the Madhesi movement's activities have been of a peaceful character.

Despite Maoist provocation in places like Lahan and Gaur, and despite this SPAM government's unrestricted sunshine policy towards the Maoists ("Maoist happiness in the name of peace"), the Madhesi people have stood by, bearing one humiliation after another.

Krishna Sitoula was never reprimanded for haphazard security actions in parts of the Terai (many in conjunction with armed Maoists); the promise of constituent assembly elections was broken (again, to please the Maoists); and Madhesi representation in the current interim parliament has actually declined since the attrition of existing MPs from various parties.

The current SPAM government has been severely negligent in addressing the legitimate demands of the Madhesi people. Koirala's attempt to divide the MPRF by using the façade of constituent assembly elections rings fresh in the minds of all Madhesi leaders - especially Upendra Yadav. Broken promises of such gravity are certain to leave a bad taste in the mouths of Madhesi people who feel increasingly betrayed by Nepal's interim government.

The SPAM government's inept handling of the brewing crisis in the Madhes and it's inability to offer reasonable and timely concessions to the Madhesi people is unacceptable. As the key antagonist of the Maoist uprising, Girija Prasad Koirala (of all people) should know better.


Many preconditions to come

Perhaps Girija does know better. He probably knows that given the current political climate, all existing political entities will take a severe beating under any election scenario. With the creation of a united Madhesi front, not the NC, not the UML and especially not the Maoists are on the path to electoral supremacy.

It is this reality that is giving Nepal's political honchos, sleepless nights. And what little sleep Koirala does get, it is certainly interrupted by nightmares of a divided, factionalized Nepali Congress, vulnerable to a full range of the on-coming leftist onslaught. For this is certainly the legacy that Girija Prasad Koirala will leave behind.

As for others in power, can Madhab Kumar Nepal expect to win in his own constituency? Can any of the Madhes based (non-Madhesi) MPs expect to return to parliament after general elections? With slightly over 50% of Nepal's population as die-hard anti-Maoists, can the Maoists ever expect to win elections (minus their guns)? The answer to all these questions is "no."

This is precisely why a day after agreeing to hold elections by April 2008, the Maoists have already started setting the stage for additional pre-conditions. They will want the declaration of a democratic republic before elections; they will want a fully proportional electoral system before elections; they will want their combatants fully integrated into the national Army before elections; they may even want Maoist combatants deployed along the Nepal-Indo border (under an integrated military command), before elections. The list of preconditions is unlimited and ranges as far as the imagination permits.

With plenty of "useful idiots" like Madhab Kumar Nepal (in parliament) and a limitless supply of gullible civil society activists to choose from, the Maoists will once again, thwart elections in April 2008.

Conclusion

Instead of preparing to disappoint the Nepali people again, members of the interim parliament should be fully engaged in dialogue with their political counterparts in the Madhes. They should be seeking to accommodate Madhesi demands such as the sacking of Krishna Prasad Sitoula and the launching of criminal investigations into atrocities committed by state (and Maoist) forces, during the Madhesi peoples' uprising.

Nepal's interim government needs to seriously consider integrating Madhesi constituents into an expanded interim parliament; they need to evaluate the merits of greater and fairer representation before making any more grand declarations with no legal basis for implementation. They need to take a long hard look at their own politics before making allusions to "regression" and "feudalism" and all the other catch populist phrases in fashion today.

Above all, Nepal's interim parliament needs to stop its policy of limitless appeasement and start practicing the politics of compromise. It need to work on building space that will accommodate all political constituents with an object to averting future conflict. More importantly, today's law makers and leaders need to start displaying some of the self-sacrifice and democracy they preach to others. If the mission ahead is impossible for the current lot of MPs, they need to step aside for the new generation to take over.

Until each of the criteria above are fulfilled, Nepal will never see free and fair elections.

Related Posts:

Nepali Congress under Koirala: The Great Betrayal
http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2007/10/nepali-congress-under-koirala-great.html

Betrayed Beyond Belief
http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2007/10/betrayed-beyond-belief.html

Earth to John Norris and Kanak Dixit
http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2007/10/earth-to-john-norris-and-kanak-dixit.html

No Impunity for Civil Society Leaders: Nepalis are watching....
http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2007/09/no-impunity-for-civil-society-leaders.html

Nepal's Constituent Assembly Elections - It's not Just a Matter of Security
http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2007/08/nepals-constituent-assembly-elections.html

The Case for Shitoula’s Resignation
http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2007/02/case-for-shitoulas-resignation.html