Election fever has finally hit the nation. After two years of political confusion and chaos, the chances of Constituent Assembly (CA) elections taking place appear brighter than ever. However, the major concern now is: What will happen if elections go one way or the other?
Will the Maoist radicals that believe only violence can effect political change for the people, and for whom, death of innocent civilians, children, or a land owner who owns too large a plot of paddy is simply the cost of war accept the defeat if they fail to emerge as a major political party in CA elections? Will the royalists that seem to be excited by the recent opinion poll that shows a surge in king's popularity accept the verdict of CA polls wholeheartedly if people reject monarchy? What would the mainstream political parties' like the Nepali Congress and the United Marxist Leninist (UML) do if they fail to put up a decent fight in the CA polls?
Has anybody in the mainstream political parties or the donor community thought about these scenarios and their possible fallout seriously? The game does no get over with the CA elections. Rather, the real power game will begin after the elections are over. There is a big possibility of a post-election violence like the one that happened in Kenya recently. As the real battle for the political survival will begin after the CA elections, donor community should work with the moderate political forces and the Army and come up with a post-election strategy.
For Puspa Kamal Dahal, his life-long presidential ambition is at stake, whereas for King Gyanendra, more than two century-old royal legacy is almost over. Will these pompous egoistic individuals accept people's verdict like rational human beings? There is very little room to believe that. So, it is important that we, as a nation, remain prepared for the worst.
On the brighter side, upcoming CA elections have provided a perfect opportunity for the democratic forces in Nepal to emerge as a winner. All they got to do at this point in time is to ensure that elections are not rigged by the groups that want to falsely project themselves as a major political force. Free and fair CA elections have the potential to re-legitimize the mainstream parties through a process of universal suffrage. Rigged elections will further legitimize a decade of violence.
The Maoist party is clinically dead in the tarai. It will, thus, do anything for a clean sweep in the hills. Politically, it is a do-or-die situation for them. The best way of testing the Maoist commitment towards the free and fair elections is through the deployment of the Nepali Army during the CA elections.
As the demands of every dissenting group in the tarai have been fulfilled, except for the secessionists, deployment of the NA to ensure free and fair elections should not be a problem. If there is an opposition, be sure that the opposing group definitely has something else in mind. It would be a blunder to cage a professional army that has successfully conducted elections in war-ridden countries when we need its help to identify the legitimate political forces that the people of Nepal trust to take the nation forward in the right direction.
In a situation whereby the Young Communists League (YCL) is openly intimidating leaders and campaigners of other political parties in the hills and secessionists are creating havoc in the tarai, the only way to enhance the popular participation in the upcoming elections is by making them feel safe at polling stations. And, Nepal Police under Krishna Situala's leadership is neither professionally capable, nor psychologically strong to do so.
Let us all be practical for the greater good of the nation, shall we? At this juncture, we have got two choices: (1) let the polls to be rigged out of fear that lack of political space will force the Maoists to return to the jungles (2) conduct free and fair elections and send a strong message: guns can't buy votes, ultimately you got to win the hearts and minds of people.
Radicals survive their confrontation with reality by withdrawing from society into their "sect." Irrespective of its ideological substance, radicalism as a frame of mind, exists at all times. Our success lies in conducting free and fair elections so that the people that are easily lured and indoctrinated by the radicals like Puspa Kamal Dahal, Nagendra Paswan, and Jay Krishna Goit get a message that, by raising arms against the state you can get only so far.
In a country like ours that has been a victim of bloody insurgency and ethnic divide, elections can be seminal events that, if free and fair, not only confer legitimacy on governments but also can profoundly influence political and social institutions, power arrangements, and citizens' expectations. Confining NA to the barracks at this juncture when the cadres of the Maoists and the secessionists are intimidating and annihilating political opponents will be a blunder of Himalayan proportion.
Do not make upcoming CA elections a fading shadow of democracy, by letting it to get rigged, when we are actually capable of conducting free and fair elections. Rigged elections will further squeeze the juice out of major political parties that are already dehydrated.
Like the Maoist violent means taught those groups out there that are now raising arms against the state that, raising arms against the state is not a heinous crime but a profitable political bargain, rigged elections will teach them another set of lessons: first, bring down the mainstream political parties to their knees at a gun point and then replace them through rigged elections. How good of a lesson would that be?
Related Posts:
Nepal's CA Elections - Assume Nothing
http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2008/02/nepals-ca-elections-assume-nothing.html
Smoke and Mirrors - Why Nepal's Constituent Assembly Elections Won't Happen in April 2008
http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2007/12/smoke-and-mirrors-why-nepals.html
They Shoot Journalists Don't They?
http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2007/11/they-shoot-journalists-dont-they-nepali.html
15 comments:
Excellent article.
But Dr. Dulal, the exteremeists in the south may have learned from the maoists how to wage a war of attrition but how practical is it for us to expect the parties that have taught the maoists how to rig elections, to defy maoist pressure today?
All these crooks in the politicay hierarchy didn't come to power through popular sentiment. They are the masters of rigging elections, capturing booths... aren't they?
Free & Fair- is simple as choice of word or twisting of words as Mr. Joshi has written.
The south and all the INGOs are ready to put a stamp of"free and fair", its a foregone conclusion. The thing we need to understand is, be it maoist,girja buda,Madhesi Morcha etc., are just a puppent on a string dancing to the tunes that they did not create.
The reality of situation is obvious to everyone but by being an accomplice no one can challenge, speak about or act against it. The hole they have dug is deepr than Kali Gandaki gorge. All are prepared to wear the shining armour of Traitor as badge of honor without an iota of shame. Stop looking for nationality within Nepal- its long gone due to certain select few (e.g. Shit-owla) who see being slave of south is better than slave of their own.
Its truly becoming for the lackof better word- god foresaken country.
It hurts but the truth cannot be denied.
This article is very well written. It does not argue for postponement of elections, it does not argue for any one party. I am sure that people who have any personal agenda that is above and beyond the common national interest will find some way to criticize the writing. Good luck to these suckers!
Not deploying the NA for election security is a huge mistake.
The silent majority will vote Kamal Thapa way just to show the discontent to these SPAM. And whole thing will start all over again. India for its under the belt diplomacy, will turn its dhoti at the amazement of simple turn of events which they though had it all wrapped up. You ain't seen nothing yet.
Media are strapped of advertising money if they are seen as anti-India, from low to middle political activist are bank rolled for their unnecessary sojourns, and people like Shit-owla are happy to disintegrate this nation for the love of Chapatis and surety of their relevance in after Nepal situation.
Like I said we are made God forsaken- for we do not act when necessary other than take high road of intelligence wrecking yard
Dr. Dulal – whilst your erudition is commendable, the question that you have posed is simply nonsensical. Do the good people of Nepal care for or even merit free and fair polls?
The elections will be resoundingly endorsed as free because true patriots like Girija babu and Sitowla jee have worked so hard to make them a success. The rest of you moaners can do jack...because you all are nothing but cowards! Wake-up and face reality: New Nepal is born and there is no place for losers like you. Stay where you are and keep blogging for our continued amusement!
"True" patriots indeed. Patriots of the Indian hand.
The New Nepal is the latest addition to the Indian federation. And as long as everyone is ok with that, Girija bahun and Shitoula bahun's hard work will have definitely paid off.
Such populist bull sh** haha. Come back here to comment after you finish your education and get a job.
But it give me like me great pleausre to know that people like anonymous (from above), are bothered by blogs like this one.
Jai hos!
I think I understand what this writer is proposing as a solution to free and fair polls and agree with him completely.
In order to counter not just the Maoists tendency to force voting patterns, but also the traditional methods used by the UML, the NC, etc., deploying the Nepali Army to dissuade such tendencies is a perfectly sound suggestion.
We are tax paying citizens. The state's security forces are here to serve us. And when better a time to serve than the elections that represents the starting point for a new nepal?
As the Anonymous at 8.56 I just want to point out to clowns like Prahlad that blogs like this and contributors like him are simply amusing - nothing more nothing less. Their continuous failure to see the wood from the trees is just as hilarious as their utter impotence in influencing anything on the ground in Nepal. Again, no matter how many jibes they may have against Sri Girija babu, Sitowla jee, MKN jee, Prachanda jee, Ramchandra jee, and all the other brave – yes brave and successful Brahmin politicians of Nepal who have made such true sacrifices to rescue Nepal from the grips of that moron Thakuri and bring about the successful birth of New Nepal, they can do nothing other than watch as Nepal inexorably marches towards being a successful country with the support and blessings of her friends and well wishers from all over the world. But seriously, Prahlad keep amusing us with your rants – after all that’s all you are good for.
With pleasure Anonymous Bahun.
I am just as amused by the rise in your pulse.
The truth hurts, guru. Just relax and enjoy the birth of the new nepal and the complete and irreversable uprooting of the culture of kings and Bahunists, forever.
Long live the Madhesi movement.
Jai hos!
I am not going to participate in this cat and mouse game of bahun and non-bahun... but seriously, when all is said and done, Girija should be taken to the gallows along side with Gyane, Pushpa Dahal and company.
We can mark this as the birth of the new nepal... right now, the mother land is in labour.
Uprooting of kings? Yes, definitely, if you happen to be a Thakuri. But of Bahunism, dream on. Who do you think is the brains behind these Madeshis and even the Janajatis? Yes – yes the Indians, but who’s running the show in India? You think “Balle Balles” or Parisees or Gujes? If you think that any of these cannon fodder are even capable of even thinking for themselves, you might as well go and lie down on the grass and reach out to your new green friends. Like it or not, “New Nepal” is our Nepal and as a tagadhari and a guru, I am lovin’it. So sad for you.
How extraordinarily entertaining and how bothered this baje is...:-)
The royalist are gaining the silent momentum in the election due to the cases of sovereignity and stability of Nepal, and to counter communism whims and Indian massive interferences in our internal politics.
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