Questionable Mergers

(Courtesy: Siddhartha Thapa)

Nepal's political discourse has entered the decisive phase where the future of tomorrow's Nepal will be charted through a Constituent Assembly. Throughout history state power has been captured through popular revolts and by paralyzing or more likely by destroying the morale of the existing state security apparatus. Similarly in Nepal an intense debate has ensued regarding the merger of a politically motivated armed outfit – the PLA; and the Nepalese Army. However, the state must strongly resist the pressure either domestic or international for the amalgamation of PLA into Nepal Army. In the unfortunate event that the merger takes place, prior to Constituent Assembly polls, it would be accurate to conclude that Girija has indeed thrown his last trump card and is preparing for the eventual surrender of power to the Maoists.

As the International Crisis Group states in its report vis-à-vis the Maoists, "their tactics, strategy might have changed, but not their goals". The Maoists today appear to be the only political party with a game plan. On the other hand the Nepali Congress is under an illusion that by virtue of being the largest Democratic Party in the country, the people will vote for them. Nonetheless, the realistic picture of Nepali politics is vastly different from what our leaders have been portraying. In fact, a few days ago senior EPA leaders Raghu Pant, Binay Dhoj Chand and Dinnanth Sharma conceded that the law and order situation has taken a nose dive and admitted that under present circumstances, the chances of holding the elections is only remotely possible. Due to Girija's failure to assert political authority, the Maoists have strategically unveiled their much expected move: to paralyze or trigger a mutiny in the national army by pushing for the integration of their ideologically armed outfit into the Nepal Army.

However, if Girija gives the nod under pressure to merge the two armies, it would be prudent for the Nepali Congress to weigh the political ramifications of such a move. There are several issues that need to be taken into consideration prior to giving consent for the merger of the two armies. First, it is important to consider that for almost a decade the Maoists took up arms against the state and the political system of multi-party democracy, in order to establish a communist republic. It is also important to note that there is no guarantee that the Maoists will renounce violence if the elections or the political proceedings do not go their way. Prachanda, Kiran Vaidya and C.P Gajurel, all senior Maoist leaders, have consistently maintained that their party will not accept any political solution that contravenes their agendas and party policies.

Nepal Army is a voluntary army and works in the interest to protect national security. In comparision, the PLA killed unarmed political opponents and anyone who dared to speak up against them. Even after the formation of YCL, the atrocities still continue: the recent killing of a journalist in far western Nepal by the Nepal Republican Army, reveal that there is little room to suggest that the Maoists have mended their ways. And there is still a significant threat of the Maoists going to war. Chairman Prachanda has boasted repeatedly about their ability to wage war at any given time if need be. It is also clear, that the political wing of the Maoist party has ultimately succumbed to the pressure of their military wing. Or perhaps it is the inability of the political wing to outmaneuver the political parties which has compelled the Maoist leadership to give more weight to the voices from the military wing. However, the ground reality is that the military and political wing are working in tandem to eventually overwhelm the state.

There are also social aspects too that need to be looked into. Family ties and ideological loyalty to the party makes it hard for the PLA to separate and decipher the importance of national security from party interest. It is a foregone conclusion that once the PLA and Nepal Army are merged, politically indoctrinated members in the armed service coupled with the infiltration of YCL and NRA, will undoubtedly undermine the impartiality of the army.

In retrospect it is imperative to look into past cases of tried and tested mergers. For example, even though the INA spearheaded by Subash Chandra Bose fought for India's independence, they were never integrated into the national army. In Britain, the IRA too was not made a part of the British Army. Likewise, in Congo, South Africa, Angola and Guatemala integration of state forces with the rebel army lead to serious indiscipline, internal confrontation, and misunderstanding that ultimately lead to the collapse of the structure of the army. Worse still is the case of Bangladesh where the opposition army assassinated the President. These past experiments of amalgamation must be taken into consideration before such mergers are implemented.

Even today, the YCL and NRA have failed to mend their ways. The crimes committed by the PLA, consistent negligence of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement and the constant abuse of human rights will make it harder for the UN to accept Nepal in future peace keeping missions if the rebel army and Nepal Army are integrated without trying those who are guilty. It is important to note that there is no mechanism within the PLA, that can punish the guilty and even if there were, it would be a hoax to designed to fool the powers that be. To conclude, the recent political upheaval in the Terai and concurrently, Maoist behavior at this particular juncture, will boost the confidence of other armed outfits in Terai and force them to demand the integration of their cadres into the national army along ethnic lines, as a precondition for successful talks.

Related Posts:

The Mysterious "Environment" and the Bogey of Elections
http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2007/06/mysterious-environment-and-bogey-of.html

Nepal Government "Pays" Maoists for Peace
http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2007/06/nepal-government-pays-maoists-for-peace.html

Reality Check for Nepal - Part-II
http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2007/05/reality-check-for-nepal-part-ii.html

Reality Check for Nepal - Part-I
http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2007/05/reality-check-for-nepal-part-i.html