A famous business executive once said ‘nothing fails like success’. He might have been referring to success and failure in business but it is equally true in other fields as well. When we are at the pinnacle of the success, we are most vulnerable to failure. Nepalese politics is passing through similar complex episodes of noticeable successes and immediate failures since the beginning of modern history of Nepal in 2007 BS (1950 AD). Sustaining the success has always been the key issue in the political arena of Nepal. Despite their great contributions and successes in 2007, 2015, 2036, 2046 and 2063 BS, Nepalese people have been deceived by rulers time and again.
The new date of twice delayed constituent assembly (CA) election has been announced after tiresome discussion among political parties and growing pressure from civil society. The issue of constituent assembly has been a mystery for Nepalese people. The agenda was first proposed more than five decades ago but it was not held because of several deferrals caused by the political situation of the country. Modern historians may have pointed fingers at then kings for not holding the election but then political leaders were equally to blame for not understanding the situation of the country and acting accordingly. Compared with those failed scenarios, the situation of the country has changed drastically because of the increased information exchange and the effect of globalization but it is still hard to believe the reality of CA poll this time as well until it really happens. Almost all Nepalese other than political leaders, who are feigning to secure their political future, are doubtful of the CA election being conducted. Even some political activists and sincere leaders are not fully confident of elections being held on time. Time is about to show whether the political parties and their leaders really want the CA election. The royalists might use all their might to make the election unsuccessful but even bigger threats are the current activities of political parties and incapability of government.
Analyzing the past events and observing the current activities and relation of political parties, it is fair to guess that the reality of the CA election is in question. Last November brought excitement to most of the Nepalese when Maoists’ entered into mainstream politics and the date of the CA election was announced. There were seven months to work for the preparation of the election and the situation of the country was much better than now. But government’s and political parties’ dillydallying behavior forced it to be aborted. Comparing with that, Maoists are now in the government but ethnic violence has escalated and this violence is sufficient to check the election from being held.
Unabated Maoists’ atrocities despite several requests and criticism from national and international level, growing violence and ethnic division in the Terai region and blurred vision and agenda of political leaders are major factors which may defer the CA polls date again. The government and political leaders should have addressed the Terai and ethnic issues from the beginning and used the opportunity immediately after the restoration of the democracy. Even with crystal clear image of past events and lessons from various political mistakes in recent years, our leaders are still not clever enough to analyze the situation and act accordingly. After the successful people’s movement, the Nepalese people had given a clear mandate to eight parties to do almost ‘everything’ immediately. Had that chance been utilized, Nepal could have been already running in a clearly defined roadmap of development and stability. The eligibility of eight parties as sole representatives of Nepalese people is already in question now. Different groups with specific demands have emerged, the royalists are making their sounds louder and Terai is no more under eight parties’ ‘control’. Even if CA election is held in the new date, the participation of these groups in the election is under doubt.
The election without mass participation does not give clear mandate to make any decision at national level. If the population of the Terai, which makes more than half of the country’s total population does not fully participate in the election because either by threat or by voluntary wish, the election results will be not different than the royal government’s local election result (held in 2005).
Though leaders are advocating the need of the CA election in words, it is getting clear that they want to delay it until the situation of the country favors their own interest. Girija Prasad Koirala and one faction of Nepali congress are aware of slip from constitutional monarchy despite his reiterations of indifference toward monarchy. Despite several bitter experiences with King and monarchy, the ideology of constitutional monarchy has not been abolished from Girija’s mind. His comments against the monarchy are targeted at the current king but not the institution. So it is easy to speculate that while Girija is in power, he will try all possible excuses to postpone the election until the situation turns better. Increasing republican ideology in young congress cadres has caused headaches to him and he and his faction is worried about possible republican set up in the country.
Though Maoists are the pioneer of the new agenda of CA election, they now are trying to deviate from their own agenda. Now, they are demanding the abolition of monarchy before the CA election. This clearly indicates that they are not interested in the CA poll; their main aim is to get rid of monarchy. Maoists seem to be afraid of the result of the election because they know better than others that if there is fair election, people will not choose Maoists because public have not forgotten the atrocities conducted by them in the past decade. If they are confident with their influence in national politics and sincere about the upcoming CA polls, they should immediately stop the ongoing atrocities. Unabated Maoist activities in the name of YCL shows that they are preparing to use force if the election is really held on time.
UML, which boasts of being the largest communist party of Nepal, is concerned about its possible loss at the hands of Maoists. Their speculation is not wrong either. The congress voters are almost unchanged even after decade long conflict and Maoists’ influence exists at the village level. The voters who used to be sympathizers of UML or other communist groups are the new supporters of Maoists. If the poll is held in this situation, Maoists will certainly snatch UML voters because of their political agenda and intimidation. Thanks to UML’s one decade of mediocre leadership, the Maoists are gaining confidence to become the largest communist party of Nepal and the UML leadership is aware of this which has caused the party leadership to seek possible excuses to push the CA date further.
Except some, other small parties and groups also want to keep the status quo because they are also not sure what will be the political direction of the country after the result of the CA election.
Unrealistic political slogans, high ambitions and plans without understanding the geo-political situation of the country by leaders and growing gap among the political parties may push the reality of the CA election. Recent remarks by Prachanda in a foreign news media about his wish to become the president of Nepal in two years time will certainly cause discomfort to the senior leaders of other parties and the fissure between them will certainly widen further. In this fluid situation, the leaders should have enough patience not to comment cheaply to gain short term popularity. Real leaders are those who are capable of handling adverse situations in the country and think national benefit is above their personal benefit. It is Nepal’s misfortune that it has not yet produced such leaders. The political leaders’ behavior is gradually being proved as counter productive for the CA polls.
Despite a gloomy political scenario, there are also hopes of holding the election on the proposed date. Because of growing pressure from their cadres and general public, the leaders are willingly/unwillingly forced towards the track of the CA polls. If political parties and their leaders are really sincere, they should work in the way they worked for establishment of the democracy. If they can show unity in the critical stage of the change, they should be able to continue that until real success is in their hands. We should praise Madhav Nepal for organizing meeting with Maoists, Prachanda for being extremely flexible to end the insurgency and Girija Koirala for not listening to the international players when including the rebels into government.
But that does not fulfill their responsibilities. There is a final daunting task ahead. Unless eight parties unite, the current political stalemate of Nepal will not end. Despite their policy differences, eight parties still can have common agenda until the election is held and that common agenda should be the successful CA election. If CA poll is held successfully and many pending decisions are made by the assembly, the country will be much relieved and Nepalese will be the real ruler of themselves. If all parties work together with national interest deep inside their hearts, all ongoing problems like Terai issues, ethnic issues and many other minor issues can be sorted out in a much easier manner.
While the nation needs healthy competition of the political parties in democratic practice to enhance the benefits of general public, there are certain periods in the history when nation needs unity of all major players with single purpose. Nepal is in such phase of history. It is almost certain that the political activists (except some) and general public are in favor of the CA election. A recent informal survey report published shows that 90 percent of the people are ready to take part in the CA election if the security situation of the country is improved. If political parties and their leaders cannot realize the situation and the newly announced CA election becomes a farce once again, the future of Nepalese people will be pushed back into a dungeon and history will not blame kings anymore but the shortsighted leaders.
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