Summit Talk - Likely Outcomes

What do you estimate will be the likely outcome of the upcoming summit talks between the SPA government and the Maoists?

Response-1

1. In order to become the dominant political and military force in the country, it is in the interest of the Maoists to weaken the army. So during the summit meeting, their drive to force the government to further weaken the army will probably become more apparent. For example, they will press for actions such as budgetary cuts and holding back logistics, reduction in size, and measured chaos in the name of restructuring.

2. It would be in the interest of the Maoists to cultivate naivety and gullibility, and thereby to promote complacency on the part of the parties and the public, for at least a year or two. It is expected that they will present their “soft policy” while maintaining, if not consolidating, their armed power. For this purpose, general policies that stand a chance of winning popularity will be presented with the appropriate rhetoric.

3. The Maoists are now fast consolidating their hold in areas (mostly urban and semi-urban). These were areas that they had intended to seize but were denied access by the security forces prior to April, 2006. It would be in their interest to maintain their present position of strength. During the upcoming meeting, diversionary issues can be expected to be discussed in order to ignore, or at least minimize, their consolidation efforts.

4. As the Maoists have already made claims to the finance of local government bodies, it is expected that they will justify such claims and activities, as well as make a bid to control and expand (or at least to share) other financial / budgetary powers of the government at all levels.

5. The Maoists will try to remove the institution of monarchy altogether by making other parties adopt the same line, while giving lip service to the "decision of the people through a Constituent Assembly" so that there will not remain any possibility to hinder the total dominance of the Maoist power and their ideology.

6. To maintain their ethnic base intact, the issue of ethnic autonomy and federal re-structuring will be made a consensus issue during the meeting.

7. With a view to maintaining complacency amongst international forces, and to buy time, the rhetoric of democracy will be given wide coverage during the meeting. 8. The ruling parties will be subjected to censure for their inability to provide good governance, so as to cast the Maoists in a better light, just as they have been doing during their formal and informal meetings now and before. In another words, the opportunity for propaganda will not be missed during this talk.
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Response-2

All along, it was hoped that the NA -- being able to provide protection – would facilitate the mobilization of able back-benchers. There is no other way to make progress in a corrupt and inefficient system. This has been the problem all along.

What went on when Deuba was renamed PM for the third time was revealing, as Koirala pulled out all the stops to keep him out of power. This was more important than moving towards civilian rule. Earlier, when the US government had a number of subject matter experts sent to KTM to meet with the National Security Council, Deuba was so wrapped up in his fight with Koirala that he was not present for even 10 minutes in an evening's session -- and was certainly not focused during that 10 minutes. Afterwards, it was confirmed that even the contents of this meeting were leaked to the left wing Nepali language media, making even a bigger mockery out of this non-event.

Faced with such a situation, one either mobilizes those who are willing to fight for their country, or one simply pulls the plug. For the correlation of forces is headed for a split straight down the left/right divide, with the middle getting completely pulverized.

In Ilam, for instance, where the Home Minister visited, the Maoists had set up three fortified camps. Yet the Home Minister (because he is also the Chief Negotiator) tells the Maoists to carry on and the NA unit in the area to sit tight – risking the lives of government forces while seemingly not risking the illusion of a two-way peace process. The only traffic that can be seen is one way – take, take, and take some more for the Maoists, and pretend, pray, beg from the government. If things go awry, such fortified positions will be unassailable, and the example has been repeated all over the country.

Indeed, the situation is, if anything, worse in Kathmandu, with the Maoists having thoroughly infiltrated forces into the city. "Little people" know this full well, and they send emails to talk of the strange faces, the strange accents, the strange behavior. And what are these infiltrators doing? They are enabling the "protests." In particular, they are preparing for THE protest which seems scheduled for after the holidays. It will follow any result of the summit THAT DOES NOT GO THE WAY THE MAOISTS WANT. In the event, and under even the best of circumstances, the security forces will be hard-pressed, because they have not been allowed to resupply and reequip, even as the Maoists have done both.

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Response-3

There is no longer merely a situation of "well, if things go wrong, we'll be able to pull the bacon out of the frying pan." The Maoists have positioned themselves in such manner that all major transportation arteries will be cut, and within the Valley, government forces will be lucky if they can even move.

Furthermore, a systematic effort has been made to ensure police neutrality or even their support for left wing SPA members. The rapidity with which the police have cut their deals with the new power structure has been depressing and has been accompanied by unfortunate instances of corrupt behavior (Sitaula's #2 in the Home Ministry has been using the police for his personal concerns, such as endeavoring to collect on past loans and such).

The message for the security forces is clear enough: be straight, be transparent, but prepare for the worst. The Maoists are definitely going to undertake street action. It is what their "student" goons have been preparing from the moment the ceasefire went into effect – and this it seems will be the outcome of the “summit talks” unless a total Maoist victory is declared.

At this, the beast of burden will be barking squarely at India. Since Nepal is strategically insignificant to the Americans, they will probably close up shop, pack their bags, and wish the SPA the best of luck as they walk out the door. A non-strategic country with a rabidly anti-American government is not a place that should benefit from US aid or American presence.

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Response-4

The most logical outcome of the upcoming talks will be a continuation of the current trend – the Maoists will take what they want and give what they want. Based on Baburam’s quotes from the Kathmandu Post article juxtaposed against Suman Pradhan’s coverage of Prachanda’s drama, it would appear that the Maoists are poised to enter an interim government arrangement, with arms.

In return, there will probably be some mention of a future concession from the Maoists. For example, they may indicate cantonment or arms management prior to constituent assembly elections. But based on their past performance, the “time value of money” logic holds much significance – any give from the Maoists in the future will hold much less value than anything they give up today. Symbolically or otherwise.

The Maoists have radicalized their cadre to such an extent that for the leadership there is no turning back. There are those apologists who claim there is insufficient analysis of anti-Maoist rhetoric. These are the same people who would make excuses for the Maoist leaders to excuse their past and ensure their place in government, with the hopes of compensation at a later date.

Such people did the same with Girja was playing merry-go-round with Bhattarai in the past and they did the same when the king was playing divide and conquer. But just as there is no sympathy for the king’s failures, the Maoist leaders and the SPA leaders are also prone to similar treatment – if the Prachanda and Baburam claim they have to behave a certain way to placate their cadre, they are fooling only their apologists while trying to excuse themselves. No more double standards after the summit talks. If these idiots cannot deliver, then it would be best to move on and talk to the Maoists who can.

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Response-5

The NC is waiting for the Royalists to join hands. The UML is waiting for the Maoists to join hands. The NC (D) is waiting for Girija to take leave. The RJP is waiting for the NC to move. What do you think will happen? That the sun will rise from the west and the terror will stop once the there are Maoist representatives in the government?

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Response-6

I expect the Maoists to get their way at the ucoming summit talks. TheMaoists will continue to carry weapons until such time as UN monitors arriveand they will carry on with their terror though they will promise to rein intheir militia and thugs, The outcome will be a sugar-coated declaration forpublic consumption and they will also say more summits will be required eventhough Prime Minister Girija Prasd Koirala and Prachandawill give directionsregarding the ceasefire agreement. They will also agree to leave thequestion of monarchy to the Constituent Assembly elections. And they willhail it as a big breakthrough on the eve of Dashain.

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Response-7

As far as Nepal is concerned, I confess that I really don't know what the SPA & Maoist joint meeting is going to decide. There is certain numbness inside me after all the grief that they have put the nation through.

I can only think that:

(i) They can decide anything, because there is no regard for the Constitution of Nepal, for established institutions of this country, for sacrosanct norms wedded to nationalism, and get away with it, at least for the time being;

(ii) There could be a sell out by the SPA to the Maoists, or

(iii) There will be enough disagreements for the Maoists to be justified in launching the third People's Movement,

Whatever the decisions, there will probably be nine days of national "holidays" immediately after that. Enough time to cook up many more opportunities for more "holidays."

I am not going to be bothered. I am too tired. I feel ashamed to have to write like this at such a festive occasion, thanks to ……………………..!

HAPPY VIJAYA 2063!