In Perspective - The Weekly Nepali Source, September 21, 2006

On Pushpa’s presidential candidacy

• The CCOMPOSA meeting just concluded at an “undisclosed” location, somewhere in India. This secrecy is necessary for groups that pledge democratic allegiance when they’re trying to come to power because everyone knows that after they make it, it’s back to complete secrecy again. You’ll know if you need to know and if you don’t know that means you don’t need to know. In our case, we don’t know and neither do the Indian authorities.
• The extremists vowed to make South Asia a “flaming field.” Apparently, Indian intelligence is too busy guarding its nuclear facilities these days and was not aware of the meeting.
• Hopefully, the Indians will wake up soon and realize that the next war they fight is going to be on their own soil – nuclear weapons won’t be of any use. Such weapons will actually be liabilities after India becomes a red state and Chinese ally in the region. Have the Americans war gamed this scenario yet?
• More interesting for Nepalis is that we finally have a presidential candidate – possibly two. Pushpe has offered Girja’s legacy to be Nepal’s first President (and Girja’s seriously considering it) while Pushpa has decided to run for President of the Revolutionary International Movement (RIM).
• The idea here is GPK, being the fool he is, will become President of Nepal and PKD will become President of the extremist leftists who rule South Asia.
• In essence, after making Girija President of Nepal, Pusha will then become President of an organization that controls Nepal. At the end of all this, whoever takes over Girja’s Presidency (GPK probably won’t live forever), will be reporting to Pushpa. Brilliant if I may say so!

On the House versus the Judiciary

• Finally, the House of Representatives (HoR) having broken all constitutional, legal and technical norms, is now at loggerheads with the Judiciary. The parliamentary Public Account Committee (PAC) of the HoR has started questioning the verdicts of the Supreme Court judges and when the Chief Justice took a firm stand, the PAC started rumors of impeaching judges.
• In January, a division bench of justices (Arjun Prasad Singh and Badri Kumar Basnet) had issued a verdict, scrapping the decision taken by the Astray Anaya Bank, the Credit Information Centre and Bankers' Club, to blacklist the Mahalaxmi Sugar Mills (owned by businessmen, including Binod Chowdhary) for willfully defaulting on loans.
• Just for the record, the above verdict was probably one that should be questioned. But is there no legal precedent, no appeal process in place? Do judges have to be threatened in public with possible impeachment (probably via another proclamation from the House) for legal issues to be handled legally? Is there no due process left in Nepal?

On the Maoist rehearsal

• On September 13, 2006, suddenly tires were seen burning on the roads and streets of Kathmandu; schools, colleges, banks, casinos and business houses were forced to shut down and employees were forced to come out on the streets to participate in a protest rally.
• Traffic flows were disrupted and “chakkajams” were enforced in several places. Similar protest rallies were also held in different cities all over Nepal by the Maoists under the pretext that the Army was importing weapons into the country.
• In reality, the Army was transferring trucks and small APCs from Birgunj to its barracks in Gajuri. This equipment was being transferred for Nepalese soldiers to deploy to Lebanon, at the request of UN Security Council.
• Maoists called off the protest rally only after an Inspection Committee went inside the Gajuri barracks and announced that the Maoists’ claim was false.
• But for the Maoists, finding weapons wasn’t really the point. Yet again, they demonstrated to Girja and the SPA government how quickly they can bring the capital to a complete stand still. This was a clear indication to Girja that he’s in thick soup.
• The irony of course, is that the Maoists are the ones who are transporting weapons from different parts of the country into Kathmandu. How about some Congress and UML supporters try and launch a rally to protest Maoist arms being brought into major cities? Is that the sound of chickens in the distance?

On the Thai Coup

• On hearing news of the military coup in Thailand, Girja Prasad Koirala asserted that a military coup in Nepal is “out of the question.”
• This was the correct thing to say, for as long as Girija understands that he and his fellow politicians are not in office to surrender to Pushpey and his henchmen, the only coup to worry about is from within the SPA alliance – and this coup, if the NC doesn’t quickly combine, is not far down the road.
• Such a merger will take place in one of two scenarios: If GPK passes away or if Deuba comes to his senses.
• On the other hand, if Girja is dreaming of bringing the Maoists into an interim government (many signs indicating this presently), then he is inviting a coup. As a man infamous for saying one thing and doing the opposite, his logic may be to let the leftists and rightists fight it out amongst themselves so he and his family can stay in the game.
• Members of the SPA alliance were also quick to express solidarity with former Thai PM Thaksin’s camp. If one studies the reasons behind why Thaksin was so unpopular in his own country, the rationale for our politicians’ expression of solidarity becomes clearer – anyone hear “corruption” in the air?
• It was a nice gesture on our politicians’ part to feel the Thai democratic forces’ pain. Not that Nepali politicians crying foul play about a situation in Thailand, has any relevance to any analyst covering Thailand, but the political drama by our very own, was amusing!
• Our politicians should probably do a little more research before jumping to conclusions; Thailand’s democracy is strong and it’s monarchy is revered. The coup in Thailand was backed by Thaksin’s opposition, much like our own “coup” was backed by our Maoists –time for all the conspiracy theorists to do some soul searching.

On predictions of another coup

• On September 13, 2006 during an interview with the Voice of America, the International Crisis Group’s Rhoderick Chalmers made the following statement: “I believe there is already underway a rearguard action, by the palace, by the people who depend on the palace, the powerful feudal elites in the country, who retain all sorts of leverage behind the scenes. And I think it would be very naïve if we imagine that the king's unconditional surrender, as was announced on television, means the end of the game for them.”
• In response to such a strong statement by Mr. Chalmers, no reaction from the leftists in the SPA alliance was available. Naturally, they did not ask for him to be taken out of his role, conducting “impartial” coverage on Nepal – and no norms of “crisis prevention” were subverted, because there are none. (Being political, being politically (in)correct, and being part of an INGO certainly comes with advantages!)
• This could imply a few things: One, no one really cares about Mr. Chalmers’ gloomy prediction; Two, Mr. Chalmers’ prediction has some merit and will serve as the backbone for the next Leftist conspiracy theory; Three, his friends in Nepal’s civil society will leverage the ICG’s reputation to validate their claim that a breakdown in law and order in Nepal is being committed by “feudal” and “reactionary” forces, backed by “certain foreign powers.” This song and dance has played a few too many times.

On business models and conflicts of interest

• Back to Rhoderick; we think he’s right. We think he’s pointing out the obvious. We believe the overlap in terminology he uses (with the Maoist vocabulary) serves a purpose beyond “impartial analysis” on Nepal and, at times, does not help “prevent conflict.”
• Consequently, his reactionary statements help widen the gap Nepalis are trying desperately to close. His words (with his organization’s credibility behind them) dangerously border on crisis escalation. Instead of helping heal Nepal’s war weary polity, his predictions pour salt on already open wounds.
• The International Crisis Group is a solid organization. The material they produce is exceptional. Not that they have actually prevented conflict anywhere, but they certainly do a great job of making a laundry list of recommendations and helping various parties figure out alternatives after conflict has broken out.
• Their business model is a bit strange – they work to prevent crises, but they get funded to produce material on crises? So what would happen to the ICG if the world was at peace and conflicts were non-existent? Isn't it ironic that an organization whose material existence thrives on conflict is “working to prevent conflict worldwide.”

On the lack of international standards/regulations that govern the activities of INGOs

• If there was a regulatory body like the American Securities and Exchange Commission that oversaw organizations like the ICG, it would probably introduce legislation that at a minimum calls into question the apparent conflict of interest between the ICG's business model and mission statement. The conflict is glaringly apparent to us.
• On Nepal, every policy the ICG has advocated since its coverage began has overwhelmingly tilted the balance in the Maoists' favor. Their criticisms of past governments are warranted to a degree, but their lack of criticism of the crimes committed by the Maoists is anything but impartial.
• We are eagerly awaiting a new report from the International Crisis Group. They published reports and gave statements on Nepal almost every month after “February-1.” No analysis has been made available since their last report in May – it is nearing October.
• A word of advice to ICG’s Board: Sometimes, it’s best to change things up a bit. After covering the same company for 20 odd years, even Wall Street analysts tend to develop unofficial relations with groups within the firm – groups with interests. How does Wall Street avoid such conflicts of interest? They have high churn amongst their Analysts and this keeps them off the SEC’s radar.
• The INGO community has no SEC. But since the INGO community rides high on morals, self-regulation would probably be the best remedy. Send 10 new Analysts to cover Nepal – the funding can be easily obtained since the “rearguard” and the “feudal elites” are bound to start trouble again!
• Or, if the ICG’s Board wishes, a verifiable list of “contacts” it’s Nepal Analyst uses, can easily be produced. A report on these “contacts’” backgrounds (specificially their political affiliations) can also be provided with a long list of recommendations on how to maintain complete impartiality and avoid conflict proliferation.
• Where was Rhoderick when the Thai coup happened? There’s a lot of funding to be sucked out of that crisis!

On Hindu solidarity – not necessarily of the democratic kind

• MP Swami Adityanath of the Bharatiya Janata Party, in a press conference has said that the BJP is in favour of multi-party democracy and constitutional monarchy in Nepal.
• He said that Nepal, the only Hindu nation in the world, has kept the pride and identity of Hindus alive and well, around the world.
• The MP expressed his party’s readiness to pay any price (even use arms) to protect and preserve Hindu dignity. He claimed that the king of Nepal is king of not only of 80 percent of the Hindus in Nepal, but also of 1.5 billion Hindus in 47 countries.
• On September 15, 2006, approximately 150 different associations led by World Hindu Federation organized a protest rally in Kathmandu.
• The sign on the wall reads as follows: “ethnic violence around the corner and separation of “church” and state, turning into a nightmare.”