(Courtesy: Chiran J. Thapa)
Once again, the Army has become the centre of attention. First, it was the Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Rookmangud Katawal's salvo against the integration of the Maoist rebels that caused a stir. Then immediately following his remarks, the Maoists accused the Army of plotting a "democratic coup." And now, the hottest debate underway is about the idea of mobilizing the Army to provide security for the putative Constituent Assembly elections (CA).
It was the COAS' non-accommodative remarks that started the wave. Hinting at the issue of Maoist integration into the Army, General Katawal had strongly opined that no politically indoctrinated individual or group should be inducted into the national army. While the Prime minister and most other political leaders concurred with Katawal's sentiments, the Maoist boss - Pushpa Kamal Dahal aka Prachanda lambasted Gen. Katawal questioning his authority to make such remarks on integration.
But the fussing did not stop there. The Maoist retorted by making an even more sensational allegation. Dahal and his second-in-command - Baburam Bhattarai accused the Army of plotting a "democratic coup." Dahal has even claimed that the foreign powers were hatching a conspiracy to install a military-backed government like in Bangladesh and Pakistan.
Repeatedly, Maoists have proved themselves to have mastered the art of crying wolf. But, some reckon that their allegation could possibly hold some semblance of merit this time around.
The element that has provided some weight to the Maoist allegation is the induction of Sujata Koirala (the daughter of the Prime minister) into the cabinet. Ms Koirala was recently appointed as a minister without portfolio. Given her ailing father's dwindling abilities, many reckon that she is taking charge of his portfolios - which happens to include defence. And it is said that her relationship with the Army top brass has warmed up quite a bit in recent times. Apparently, she was also in Delhi at the same time when Gen. Katawal was there. These turn of events added weight to the Maoists’ claim that her lucid preference for constitutional monarchy has resonated well with the Army top brass and a “democratic coup” is in the offing.
But even before the dust settled, Army was again dragged into the limelight. This time, it was about mobilizing the Army to provide security for the putative elections. Although the Army has remained tight-lipped over the issue, all divisional commanders were recently called into Headquarters to discuss the issue. As for the political leaders, they have been voicing their preference to mobilize the Army almost on a daily basis.
The Army has become the primary choice for the security provision because it is still the largest and the strongest security apparatus in the country. At a time when the security situation has deteriorated critically and that the other security apparatuses have become utterly debilitated, Army remains the only robust hope for the purpose.
Army's power
Perhaps the main reason why the Army has received so much attention is because of its undeniable power. A recent report, released by the Brussels based International Crisis Group (ICG), positions the Army as the most powerful institution in Nepal. There is more than a grain of truth in ICG's assessment. With a total strength of six divisions comprising of 95,000 personnel, the Army is certainly the largest and the most powerful public institution.
The Army derives its power not just from the sheer numbers, but also from the public faith in the institution. According to the most recent nationwide survey titled "Nepal's contemporary situation" conducted by Sudhindra Sharma and Pawan Kumar Sen, the Army enjoys the highest public approval rating amongst the primary government institutions (legislative parliament, Cabinet, Civil service, Nepal Police, and Judiciary). Even the NGOs, Civil society, and Human rights activists’ were unable to override the Army’s approval ratings.
Another opinion poll conducted by Nepalnews/Nepali Times had yielded similar results. In response to the poll question, "In light of the recent developments what is your opinion of the Nepal Army?”, 79% of the respondents indicated that they held the army in positive light.
The public’s faith on the Army stems mainly from its unfaltering discipline and cohesiveness. Unlike the blatantly brazen violations of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) committed by its signatories, the Army has strictly abided to all its terms and conditions. And the Nepali people have taken notice to this fact. Also, until date, the Army has remained remarkably subservient to the Transitional Governing Authority’s (TGA) authority and staunchly adhered to the constitution. In stark contrast to the fissiparous political parties that have all endured splits at least once in their political history, the Nepal Army has remained intact and very loyal to its chain of command too.
It is also the financial capability that has provided the Army with an additional oomph. Not only does it receive a budget allotment from the government, but it also earns a substantial amount from UN Peace keeping operations (PKO). As the fifth largest troop contributor, the amount the Nepal Army rakes in from PKOs is almost equal to the amount it receives from the national budget. One estimate even has it that about thirty percent of the capital circulating in Nepal's financial markets comes from the Army's funds.
But the variable that makes the Army so potent and powerful is undoubtedly its fighting prowess. Despite having fought an onerous insurgency for years, the Army still appears indefatigable. Although some have denigrated the Army for its inability to crush the insurgency, others have credited the institution for preventing a complete military takeover by the rebels. Many political pundits also believe that it was primarily the Army’s unyielding resilience that compelled the rebels to shift their strategic gears and opt for the Delhi compromise.
In the transitional period, analysts reckon that the Army has actually increased its potency. Pointedly, the number of personnel in the Army stands at its peak. Training has been made more frequent and more rigorous. It is even believed that it has greatly strengthened the capability of its special forces which comprises of one airborne battalion and one Ranger battalion.
Even more tellingly, the previously throttled supply of military hardware has resumed. The COAS' recent trips to India and China are believed to have revitalized the military ties. Presumably, COAS’ trips have opened more doors for military hardware procurements. Some Nepali news agencies have even reported sightings of two US Air Force C17 Globemasters, delivering a large consignment arms and ammunition to the Army at Tribhuvan International Airport.
In sum, what makes the Army irrefutably powerful is a combination of pubic faith, financial capability and its fighting prowess.
Army's impending role
Today, most eyes rest on the impending role of the Army. Will the Army take the risk of absorbing the rebels? Will it completely severe its conjugal ties with the institution that is attributed for its naissance? Will it be mobilized to provide security for the putative elections? And more importantly, what would happen if it tilted in favour of one political force?
It remains to be seen as to how the Army’s role will play out. But, one thing is unmistakably certain: the Army is greatly perturbed by the rising insecurity and especially alarmed by the eroding state sovereignty. As it considers itself ordained with the task of safeguarding national sovereignty and territorial integrity, it is easily discernable why the downward spiral trend has been unsettling.
But more importantly, it has seemingly sensed its inevitable role. It has detected that the burden of cleaning up the political slag will once again be heaped on its shoulders. Either by being mobilized to provide security for the elections or deployed against the anti-establishment elements, it foresees itself springing into action sooner or later.
The Army, however, faces another formidable task as well. For the Army, more challenging than defusing the stray UXOs (unexploded ordinances) and IEDs (improvised explosive devices), will be the task of striking a balance between its historical institutional values and forces of modernity. Since other political forces have harped about the institution's conjugal relationship with the Monarchy, it has had to repeatedly counter these jaundiced outlooks. But by conforming to the universal norms like human rights, democratization and operating under a civilian authority, it is increasingly dispelling most doubts.
At a time when pervasive threats are undermining the existence of the State, however, many believe that it would be foolhardy for the Army to overlook the significance of its entrenched historical values and ties.
Being one of the two primary institutions that founded the Nepali State, the Army bears a moral, historical, and institutional obligation to salvage the faltering state. Now, the question remains: when and with which partnership will the Army act?
Related Postings:
The Nepali Army is a Favorite Target for Cheap Provocateurs - An Analysis of a Nepali Adolescent's Professional Obituary
http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2007/12/being-cheap-provocateur-is-easy.html
Nepali Maoists Should bear Moral Responsibility for the Terror Attacks in Kathmandu
http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2007/09/nepali-maoists-should-bear-moral.html
Nepal's Constituent Assembly Elections - It's not Just a Matter of Security
http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2007/08/nepals-constituent-assembly-elections.html
The Utility of a Professional Nepalese Army
http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2007/07/utility-of-professional-nepalese-army.html
The greatest threat to peace in Nepal is misinformed, misguided, agenda-divine journalists like "The Guardian's" Isabel Hilton
http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2007/07/courtesy-el-punto-isabel-hiltons.html
12 comments:
A most timely reminder of the humiliation our military institution has faced at the hands of the king and the politicians. Now the country needs the army to play a constructive role once again.
It is very ironic that the same idiots who were calling for a down sizing of the army after April 2006 are now the idiots asking for the army to be deployed.
At least consider the price of the prescription. No matter what combination comes to fruition, let it not falter in earnestly delivering the long term benefits to the many at a cost to the absolute few.
Mr. Thapa has written a timely piece providing a clear picture of the role that Nepal Army may - no, will - be called to play within the next 40 days. Let us hope that the NA leadership has the brains to ensure that the NA is a cohesive force, motivated and loyal. Or else, it will be the Generals who need to be hanged!
The reality and truth cannot be hided. Yes, the army is the only instution who played a very fair game in this crucial period. But I worried about their deployment in the terai. The whole constructive role of the army will be questioned if it become shield to spam rule against madhes.
Army should stay away from the perils of shylocks of political parties. The intention to drag army into a political fray seems to be by design- to discredit it. Army alone cannot hold the country together when Girja the nitwit to dumbest to dumber politicals loud mouths are hell bent on making Nepal like a ash on a ashtry to the benefit of India and Indians. Army has no role and should not act as accomplice to the crime against the very notion they are setup to fight and protect.
Army should continue to pledge its allegiance to its founding principle and founder- rather than placing bet on flotsom and jetsom that are knee deep on payroll of foreigners and their vital interest, and not on the interest of Nepal and Nepali. This must be quiet evident to people who have seen the meetings and night vision helicopter at the behest of S.D. Muni and KV Rajan.
Army should hold on and not be an accomplice to these criminals who have sold their dignity and are in process to seal the fate of this nation and its sovereignity
As agreements go, the latest fad is for the recruitment of Nepali people from the Terai into the Army. My question is who's stopping any Nepali from the Terai or anywhere else from applying to join the Nepal Army, the Indian Army or the British Army? Are red herrings the exclusive obsession of the current lot of Nepali politicians or an innate aspect of the Nepali psyche?
The contribution from Anonymous at 11.59 pm brought on a most welcome chuckle in these literally dark times. What’s disconcerting is that not only does it seem that red herrings are flourishing in the troubled waters of Nepal but they seem to be the ones doing the fishing.
India will trained the terai people and compel to recruit in Nepal Army through using the puppet like Girija, Makune and Prachanda. This will be the grand design to take NA in hand by India. They were demanding the security and foreign policy to king since long time. Now their dream has been fulfilled by moron Girija.
I think this issue is still very relevant - Should the army be mobilized to ensure security during the CA elections? This of course, assumes that the elections wil be held.
KP Bhattarai was asked why the Nepali Army didn't aggressively recruit from the Madhes by an Indian reporter. KP Bhattarai famously responded to ask why the Indian Gurkhas didn't recruit from the Madhes.
Herein lies the irony. If people show up for recruitment, I don't understand why it should be a problem. It sounds to me recruitment based on merit or qualification is the issue here.
Bhaire, to answer your very relevant question: Yes, the NA is the only instrument to secure a free and fair CA election. But it is impossible to have a free and fair CA election, thanks to the comrades. Hence, there will not be, should not be, must not be any kangaroo court election. A Government of National Unity, headed by a non-SPA leader, supported by the NA, MUST ensure this. Amen.
The sovereignity of this country is in verge of collapse in this slave mentality of "Three Brahman Raj".
The ethnic rules could be far better than them in safeguarding the nation due to their community and economic pressure.
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