Victory for one, Victory for all and a Unanimous KO by Nepal’s Maoists

(Courtesy: Comrade Libre)

The long awaited peace in Nepal has finally been achieved!! The signing of the comprehensive peace accord is a truly remarkable victory for the entire Nepali nation.

From an analytical perspective, equally remarkable are the tactical pillars upon which the Maoist strategy of pursuing power through “other means” has been employed. Hats off to the sheer brilliance displayed by Nepal’s Maoists as they successfully waltz into the halls of Singha Durbar!

Pillar #1 - Anti Monarchy: The Maoists firmly control the anti-monarchy agenda so any logical criticism against them is written off as "reactionary" or monarchist. As a recent example, take the episode in Kupondole where known SPA affiliates and supporters were dismissed as having been instigated by “reactionary forces” when the local Maoist “magistrate” was confronted by citizens. This type of branding (symptomatic of defeatist rationale) will likely persist into the future, leveraging fears of a resurgent monarch to diminish political opposition.

The signing of the peace accord (and presence of “independent” observers) may make the branding game harder for the Maoists than before, but being represented in the legislature should more than compensate for any anti-monarchy fear mongering that can continue to be leveraged throughout the run up to constituent assembly elections.

Pillar #2 - The Republican Agenda: The Maoists OWN the republican agenda so any party that is dumb enough to base its political campaign on a republican platform is due for a nice shock at the polls. This agenda is irrefutably a Maoist platform. The thought that should come to voters’ minds is “why cast a vote for a similar leftist party when the die hard commies are running for office on the same platform? Why vote for a UML candidate running on a republican ticket when the original Maoist militia-man turned commissar, turned local administrator, turned electoral candidate is running on the same platform?"

Even worse, why vote for a runaway faction of the Nepali Congress that during the entire 11 year insurgency, continued to execute India’s two-pillar policy within Nepal?” A rude awakening may await potential candidates who must urgently recognize the need for a differentiated political platform. Grass roots activism must commence immediately and relentlessly over the coming 5 months or else the constituent assembly elections will deliver the country on a silver platter to Nepal’s comrades.

Pillar #3 - The Peace Agenda: Thanks to those in the current interim government (and various supporting elements), the Maoists now control the peace agenda as well - and no one has sufficient political capital to spend on anything that may even remotely be construed as war mongering.

Yes, the Nepali people desired peace all throughout the 11 year war. No doubt, Nepal’s civil society wanted to mediate a peace deal between successive governments and the rebels. Most certainly, King Birendra wanted to avoid the conflict turning into the all out war it did, by confining the clash to its political dimensions.

But the bottom line is this – it was the Maoists who dictated the time and place of the insurgency’s birth, it was the Maoists who dictated the terms of how the 11 year old war was fought and having led the April movement, it was the Maoists who dictated the terms of a cease fire. Finally, on November 21, 2006, it was the Maoists who ultimately dictated the timing of a comprehensive peace treaty to serve as the basis for all future political engagements in Nepal.

Dear old Girija Koirala deserves some mention (for his conscience finally kicking in) on his way to the Arya Ghat. But the majority of the thanks goes to India, who all along, has held an unshakable grip over Nepal’s Maoists. The agenda of peace belongs to one and all but the Nobel prize for making peace, goes out to Mr. Pushpa Dahal and his Indian mentors.

Any mention of what the Maoists have done to the mental state of Nepal and Nepalis over the duration of their brutal insurgency is now, “against the peace agenda.” News of Maost-UML cadre clashing all over the country (in the post-April 2006 period) remains intentionally subdued by by Nepali media, for fear of ruining the peace process. Maoist competitors, try campaigning on that!

Peace will prevail in Nepal indefinitely for as long as the Maoist writ is met. Put another way, in the very unlikely event that a simple majority votes some space for the Monarchy, the peace agenda will be lost. So, all would-be sympathizers of a non-political role for the royal institution, beware! For keeping the monarchy alive in any form is the same as forcing the Maoists to go back to war! What an impeccable agenda to hold the polity hostage to!

Pillar #4 - The Democratic Agenda: Not surprisingly, the Maoists have gained firm control the democratic agenda also. The Maoists’ past is near legitimized by the overwhelming sense of security Nepalese feel indebted to the Maoists for engendering.

Plus, the Nepalese population (particularly the new generation) retains very vivid memories of former political escapades committed by many of the same SPA leaders who today, claim fame for guiding the country to peace. What these leaders really mean is that they’re extremely adept at executing the will of the people when civil society is holding their feet to the fire and Indian policy dictates that the Maoists be mainstreamed to “enhance” the political landscape.

Whether one likes it or not, the Maoists are the only ones who remain un-tested and etched into a political vacuum of leftist radicalism in Nepal’s grass roots. For the likely majority of Nepalis, the call for two square meals a day easily outweighs any idea of liberal/competitive democracy.

When the time for polling comes, the numbers will speak for themselves, but in the minds of the new generation and most of Nepal’s rural majority, who could be more democratic than a party that has promised the unimaginable and has successfully delivered all but 9 of their original 40 promises?

Yet another historic precedent is likely to be set in Nepal where a free and fair democratic process may end up de-legitimizing the self-proclaimed “democrats” in favor of the avowed “socialist communists.” Anyone with a two-bit brain can guesstimate the amount of resources that are required to challenge Maoist supremacy over the democratic agenda in less than 5 months’ time – these would be the type of resources (time and materials) that approach the definition of a "miracle."

Given the parameters as they currently stand, next on the Maoists’ chopping block is the UML and shortly thereafter, it's the NC. There simply won’t be anyone left to peacefully (or otherwise) challenge a leftist front, that is overwhelmingly dominated by Maoist supremacy. At this time, not only will the Maoist capitulation to power be justified by the pillars listed above, it will be rationalized by democratic process. A flawless political check-mate, if ever one had been had!

Peace will be had in Nepal at the price of a overwhelmingly leftist dominated polity. For now, the Nepali nation’s thirst for peace has been so brutally denied by one group or another, even common sense questions on the process by which peace has been generated, will draw heckling.

But the time will inevitably come when the price that has been paid will have to be justified by the benefits that the nation receives. At this point, it would be the hope of one and all that the pillars upon which the Maoists have catapulted into power each become meaningless the point where peace will not only be viewed as a political convenience, but a non-negotiable, national necessity.

The democratic process is about to take off in Nepal (once more) and there simply cannot be any strings that are left attached. Take the king out of Nepal’s equation and Maoist agendas 1 and 2 disappear. Hold the Maoists unconditionally to the language of the comprehensive peace agenda and platforms 3 and 4 are gone. Fail in either of these initiatives and the entire country’s democratic and prosperous future may forever be gone.