Opinions on the Maoist Victory in Nepal

We'd love to hear your opinion on the political development in Nepal. Whether you're elated, overjoyed, ecstatic, or annoyed, frustrated, angry, please send a few sentences to: Nepali.Perspectives@gmail.com

Should you desire to remain ANONYMOUS in expressing your opinion, let us know and we will post your reaction in our compilation, accordingly.

Alternatively, we encourage you to post your comments direclty at: http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/

Looking forward to a wide range of reactions.

---------------------

Below are the types of opinions that don't play in the mainstream media, out of fear, intimidation or the perception that raising concerns may "jeapordize" the peace agreement.

If the agreement is historic, nothing can jeapordize it. If it is doomed to be "history," then it's better to hear not just the arguments "for" but also those that raise valid concerns on the direction Nepal is heading.

To start with.. here's a simple question: "If this is a victory for no one and a victory for everyone, then how come the only Party celebrating all over Nepal is the Maoist party? Has anyone seen the NC celebrating on the streets or the UML cheering on the number of Maoist seats in the interim parliament?"

---------------

“Nepal Suputra”

I am not surprised with the outcome but will be if everything will go on as planned. It seems everything was already put into place by hard working RAW agents and Indian Foreign Service officials some time back and the SPA and M leaders only had to nod their heads. A new constitution in less than two weeks? Entire Arms management in such a short time? Does the UN or anyone know how much arms do the Maoists have so that they can be satisfied when Maoists lock x number of arms?

And for the wonderful people of Kathmandu and Lalitpur who have been suddenly alarmed by the call by the Maoist "to support them by giving food and shelter to their cadres" I'd like to say "Khuchhing" . Did these people all along think that the Maoists would spare them just because they lived in the Valley? What were they thinking when people in the "mofasal" were crying hoarse talking about the atrocities of the Maoists? I am sure Dr Sundar Mani Dixit and the likes are happy to accomodate these Maoists cadres in their home and split their huge house and compound in Patan Dhoka with some landless Maoists cadres from Bajura and Bajhang once the new Constituent Assembly puts a ceiling on property and land one can hold.

For those who want a republic congratulations, now only the formalities remain. With no formidable institution or better organized force than the Maoists exists in the country I hope all of you are happy with Prachanda's version of "ganatantra".

Madhav Nepal and his gang Congratulations the most. You let opportunities to rule the country single handedly slip by more than a dozen of times. You never did have a spine and never were stable on any single policy. Now fight it out with the Maoists in the streets and in every location...as they say opportunity does not knock twice for you it did several times and still you lost it.

For those who were stoned and chased by the Maoists Wednesday morning in Kopundole. Ha ha ha ha so you thought Communists meant democratic...."khuching".

------------

Anonymous

When historians finally get a chance to write about events as history, the result of one individuals successes and the result of his failures are equally scrutinized so the society and the people-at-large get a factual picture and hopefully learn a proactive lesson.

What is so paradoxical and ironical of the current agreement is that King Gyanedra's political failure resulted in Nepalis getting a chance for peace with Maoists finally coming to the talks, BUT - the PM Girija's colossus failure in leading the peace talks has sacrificed and De-facto ended the Multi-Party democracy. PM Girija has lead the democratic Nepal to a Red-Communist Nepal and inhumanely led 30 million innocent lives to the stable of communist slaughterhouse !!!

Why would the west allow it to happen in 21st century?

Perhaps the Benevolent Able Minds of the WEST are long dead and perhaps the Lord Pashupati Nath of the EAST has died as well !!!

-------------------

Dr. S. B. Shrestha

'From Frying-pan to the Fire' is what comes to many sensible Nepalese minds these days. In Nepal its been a historic victory for a group of Terrorist who actually belongs in Hague for terrorizing the nation for more than a decade, are responsible for murder of tens of thousands displacement of millions innocent citizens, who are no better than Talebans or Alquidas in any sense.

It was possible here because (a) There was a king who grabbed power some twenty months back very timely for a noble cause but screwed-up every thing due to his arrogance & incompetence. (b) There are political parties to whom democracy has been nothing more than a begging bowl ;
have yet to realize the Polpot type trap they are falling into in the hands of "Prachandaji" (as they address the person now, who they always called a "Terrorists" till their so called 12 point agreement). Current hero (Prachandaji) likes to be staged alongside Marks, Lenin & Mao (read the writing on the walls & posters all over with a big self portrait "Marksbad, Leninbad, Maobad, Prachandapath Jindabad).

Surprisingly in Nepal there still are a majority including reps of so called civil society, intellectuals, business community, artists community, disabled community etc., dreaming of a new Nepal, a more democratic Nepal safer Nepal, prosperous Nepal under Prachandapath. But lets not forget that Khmer Rouge in Cambodia or Taleban in Afghanistan had never failed to assure the people of their respective countries through their propaganda machineries that someday they would be the most prosperous nation in Asia as Prachanda is claiming to turn Nepal to be the richest nation in South Asia just within three years under his economic doctrine. We are used to in this, remember we had a senior democratic leader who had promised to make Nepal into Singapore in just five years? if an educated leader who had spent most of his life in the Scholarly city of Baranashi can sell us dreams like that for a gain of few Birgunj votes what's wrong when the same thing is done by some other who have spent their life in Jungle? God save Nepal !!!

-----------

Raj. KC

Regarding present development of Nepal, personally, I am not very optimistic. Now at this stage only I can say that " we have to wait and see till the time decommissioning process is complete." This much to say now.

--------------

Deepak Shrestha

Note, there has been no spontaneous jubilant demonstrations by the people, upon the achievement of the Peace Accord of 7 Nov. 06.

Such demonstrations have to be organized artificially by the 8 parties. Which we may witness in a few days time.

Arms deal does not include, those arms, "... needed for security". Each and every Maoist need to keep arms for "security" to protect themselves for reprisals from the victims of Maoist atrocities in the past eleven years.

Justice and Human Rights have bypassed the victims of Maoist atrocities.

The amount of Maoist arms to be kept in safe custody has to be what the Maoists say it is. !!

The separate Maoists, namely, the Terai Mukti Morcha has not been included in the peace accord.

Citizenship issues, making of voters' list, determining the areas of constituencies to make it inclusive, budgetary allocations and manpower planning to conduct elections to the Constituent Assembly would require more time than naively declared.

Caution is called for.

-------------

“Anonymouse”

Now the fight will be for the votes in the CA elections. The Maoists will have to gain a respectable amount of votes. Otherwise, the question. - "what was all this for" - will surface and potentially undermine their attempts to rationalize the war they waged.

So, one can expect a lot of intimidation and strong arm tactics during the run up to elections in the regions the Maoists control – which for now, is pretty much all of Nepal’s hinterland.

The UML and the Maoists will not work together. The UML's student wing has already clashed with the Maoists student wing. Jhala nath Khanal and Pradeep Nepal have already said there will be no joint front. Pradeep Nepal even taunted the Maoists by saying, "la lekhera rakhnoos maobadi le 9 wota seat bhanda badi jitdaina.(I’ll give it to you in writing, the Maoists won’t get more than 9 seats during elections)."

Even Amik Sherchan the DPM from Janamorcha said there was no need for a united left front.
One can expect the leftists to fight amongst themselves for control. They have always been a fractious lot (check out the history of the communist party in Nepal, the rule of thumb has been...two leaders three parties) ...and they will continue to be this way.

The Nepali Congress, if they can come together - Shere and Girija - they would garner most of the votes. Add the votes of the RPP and Sadbhawana to that and one arrives at more non-commi votes than commie votes. The Nepali Congress most likely will be in control again. If they get a
Majority, they will likely retain the King as a ceremonial monarch.

The major story, however, is how the Maoists will behave in the days leading to the elections and their reactions if they were to perform badly in the elections.

In the very first general elections in 1990 the Maoist front won about 12 seats . Over the years they have grown stronger. Plus they now have the luxury of already being in government without ever having contested elections as the organization they currently are. So, one can expect them to win between 20-30 seats in the CA elections. But the real question is, what is the value (in seats) that would be considered “sufficient” for the Maoists to save face and rationalize the need to waged war on the state?

It will be the same story all over again (i.e. a repeat of 1990). Such was the euphoria on the streets and the rhetoric then that you would almost think Nepal was ready to launch into space. It just took 45 days after Girija took over as PM for the UML to come out on the streets asking for his resignation by destroying public property (specifically sideway railings and telephone exchange boxes).

Over the years everyone has become accustomed to the game and "Money" has become the single pursuit of all party members. Corruption has become a virtue and these institutionalized trends will continue once more. Once Maoist leaders get a whiff of legitimate power, they will be constrained by the same compulsions that affect the other parties. The same old Nepali culture and societal theory will kick in. Placating their cadres, sold on this huge dream of a better Nepal,
will be a huge challenge for the Maoists.

I expect lasting change. The political cards may get re-distributed but ultimately, it will be business as usual. “Make hey while the sun shines!”

The King is the biggest loser in this shake-up. He can expect all the failures of the parties to be heaped on him. He will continue to be the parties' punching bag. In the best of worlds his future role will be relegated to cutting ribbons and taking his anger out on former advisors who nodded their heads saying “yes” to launching into February 1.

Otherwise, he may loose it all.

Civil war? - The Maoists will really have to do something stupid for conflict to erupt again. Until the elections to the CA, relative peace will prevail. Sure, there will be low level conflicts. Intimidation, extortion, breaking legs etc. will continue but these incidents will not result in the resumption of armed hostilities.

The danger really is after the election results.

1. If they win massively, the Maoists will control the CA and will want to oust the King and the parties.....and the King and the democratic parties will be forced to align to block the Maoist moves. And then, the army gets dragged in once more.

2. If the Maoists lose (say little or no seats), then they will have no choice but to renege on their promises and go back to battle. To even wonder how the leaders might handle such a situation is unfathomable.

So, for a LASTING peaceful outcome, the democratic parties will have to be in control, they will have to give some space to the king and the Maoists will have to win a respectable number of seats to placate their cadres and play the Parliamentary game. In other words, there has to be accommodation and for all forces or we are just postponing the resumption of violence till a few months down the road.

------------

Lal Kunwar

Today very large crowd is marching and shouting slogans around KV (Kathmandu Valley). In the road coming from Lalitpur and Bhaktapur, to KTM, the crowd, with Newari Baza and all, marched by.

It took them at least two hours to cross the bridge leading to KTM. More crowds are still being brought in by impounded buses. Very little vehicles on the road. Maoist call this rally their "victory celebration".

Today Prakash Chandra Lohani has a very nice article in the Kantipur Daily (11 Nov 06). In a nice way ( not direct ) he has said it all.

Anyone who thinks actual democracy is possible in Nepal with an assortment of 13 or so Communist parties (with just one or two communist parties each, more capable than all the non-communist parties put together ), plus the radicalized peasantry, proletariats, and ethnic groups must be an exceptional wonder in the entire creation of God!

Note, while Maoists have sway over all the territories of Nepal (including urban areas that used to be safe before this April), the other parties have not as yet been allowed to enter the rural areas to conduct their respective programs ( SPAM commitment to competitive political system notwithstanding!!!). Implications for the so called CA elections?

Maoist had boasted of having about 80,000 fighters before. Now they say they have only about 35,000 fighters.

And of course, all have to accept the amount of Maoist arms to be what they say it is.

The Maoist militia with their arms are not included in the "Historic Understanding." Etc.

What the Maoists say and what they are doing at the grassroots is different. This difference between saying and doing has to be highlighted. In particular, the naive westerners need to be informed, for the sake of enlightening the self-proclaimed, "International Community."

Two people from Lalitpur have been taken by the Maoists, for action for opposing their fiat to have forced gusts in the homes of the people. Do not yet know what has happened to them.

Though the Maoist could not take actions against all in Lalitpur, they have made examples out of the two that have been abducted. Probably to discourage such opposition to their totalitarian
acts in the future.

This abduction of the two residents after the mass demonstration against the Maoist has not been highlighted to call attention of the world at large. One or two papers gave a one line news about it. In this sense, the two abducted persons do not even have vocal support. It will certainly encourage the Maoists to continue doing such acts in the future.

Need is to be informed of the "progressive" news of Loktantric Nepal, as they are practiced not as they are preached.