For die-hard monarchists, the dawn of the Republic of Nepal is a death-knell of biblical proportions. But for people who are tired of being painted with the Royalist brush (that comes from their principled opposition to Maoist tyranny, blackmail and unmitigated violence), the birth of a Nepali republic offers limitless possibilities.
Catalogued below are some of the immediate benefits that Maoist opponents will have, in a Republic of Nepal.
Focused Frustration Where it Belongs
The Nepali population has remained hostage to peace on the Maoists’ terms and excess Royal baggage since April 2006. Whether King Gyanendra had benevolent intentions or not is largely a moot point at this juncture. However, closed-door admission from some of the King’s harshest critics, that Maoist rule is likely to be one hundred times worse than the option that King Gyanendra offered, speaks volumes about the current mindset of Nepal’s disillusioned liberal democrats.
No matter how representative and progressive the Maoist delegation to Nepal’s constituent assembly may be, no matter how hard the Maoists’ (and their allies) try to paint their violent rise to power as a necessary evil, the scars of Maoist-perpetrated atrocities remain deeply embedded in Nepali society. Nepalis may be forgiving people but to assume that those who have suffered grueling physical and mental abuse will forget the actions of their tormentors overnight, is wishful thinking. With the distraction of the Monarchy soon to be gone, collective frustration is more likely to find its true source – the Maoists.
End of the Maoist-Monarchy Nexus
Throughout the course of Nepal’s insurgency, the Maoists have remained the Monarchy’s prime beneficiaries. Maoist leaders are known to have been protected on direct orders from the now defunct office of the Principal Military Secretariat. Evidence of such protection is available not only from former Royal Military Aides (who are soon to join the Maoist ranks), but also from army helicopter pilots and mission commanders who received contradictory orders from the Royal Palace and the Army Headquarters, on numerous occasions.
Also to their benefit, the Maoists have successfully leveraged the falsehood of equating their opponents with the rank and file of hardcore Royalists. By propagating such fabrication, the Maoists succeeded in keeping national and international opposition at bay – why would anyone in the 21st century want to be perceived as protecting a system of monarchy over the Maoist option of democracy?
With the declaration of Nepal as a republic state, the Maoists’ will have gained the temporary illusion of a moral victory but will also suffer the consequences of their lost “ally” and universal “punching bag.”
Liberal Democrats Smell the Coffee
The Maoists have repeatedly informed their supporters and critics alike that their version of democracy is different from the Western version (whatever this may be). The Maoists are on record saying that their economic revolution will be a mixture of proletariat and bourgeoisie economics (one being the antithesis of the other). Despite the vocabulary the Maoists deliberately invent to keep their critics hoping, the rational interpretation of Maoist rhetoric couldn’t be further from liberal, multi-party democracy.
Unfortunately, for a minority, ultra-liberal, “peace at any cost” crowd, the song the Maoists’ have been singing has been music to their ears because King Gyanendra has been around as the common punching bag to hate on. For the Maoists’ the Monarchy has been a perfect focal point to keep the minds of a large, uninformed decision-makers, fixated upon; and the liberal, educated crowd, even while they preach reconciliation and peace, remain to this day, blinded by personal vendetta and revenge against a monarch who temporarily denied them mobile phone and internet services.
Long gone are the days when liberal democrats would court arrest only to pick up their satellite phones (from their supposed cells) to dial Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch, and tell the world about the “autocrat” Gyanendra. These fools know better than to try such games with the Maoists – they have recent examples to remind them of the potential repercussions from the YCL.
On May 28 2008, Nepal’s liberal democrats will celebrate the birth of a republic; a few months’ down the road, they are equally likely to be yearning for a second shot at the elections that King Gyanendra offered.
India’s Long Term Interest
A lot of people are worried about India’s excessive leaning towards the Maoists. The same people also express dissatisfaction at the Americans’ coddling of the Maoists. Not coincidentally, these are the same idiots who were all too happy to be Indian servants at one time and closed-door sycophant of the former American Ambassador James F. Moriarty.
But these people need to develop ulcers, unnecessarily. The Indian government will pursue its interests in Nepal, relentlessly and in lieu of a single power center that rose to the occasion when Moriarty was offering cover, the Americans are right to be pushing soft power tactics upon the Maoists.
The Indians and the Maoists share a common cause – both want King Gyanendra and Nepal’s Monarchy gone. But after this feat is accomplished, all bets are off. There is a reason why Indian Ambassador Rakesh Sood is fervently opposed to any constitutional amendments that could prolong the Monarchy’s lifeline. The Indians are in as much a hurry to sideline the Monarchy as they are to begin containing the Maoists’ power play.
There is not a moment in living memory when the Indians have placed all of their backing behind a single horse in Nepal and they are not about to start now; specially with a radical left-wing outfit, which by ideological doctrine, is incapable of serving long-term Indian interests. Once Nepal becomes a republic, the Maoists’ utility to Indian interests is as good as yesterday’s paper.
Conclusion
So what does all this mean? It means that with the elimination of the Monarchy, a one-party system in Nepal, is more likely than ever. The exact nature of such a system will become clearer over the coming weeks. Needless to say however, Nepal is likely to surprise the international community yet again, for what is expected, is most likely not going to be delivered.
For once, Prachanda’s communist sixth sense is serving him well. His Stalinist vocabulary is out of touch with the times, but Prachanda’s expectation of a “counter-revolution” is right on the money. Far too much has changed in Nepal, far too quickly and if history is any indication, radical changes are radically unstable.
The Monarchy as a logical counter-weight to the Maoists’ is a theory that has been tried and has failed. Rather than serving as a formidable challenge to the Maoists’, King Gyanendra’s disorganized campaign was perhaps the biggest power boost the Maoists’ could have wished for.
However, with the political liability of the Monarchy gone, the door to much needed, democratic (and if necessary, forceful) opposition to the Maoists, opens on Mary 28, 2008. With a convergence of national and international power centers, an unjustly humiliated military, disillusioned liberal democrats, and a civil society that is all too eager to please whoever can threaten them most subtly, Nepal is ripe ground for a real revolution.
All hail the Republic of Nepal!
Related Posts:
All the Right Agendas
http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2008/04/all-right-agendas-nepali-national.html
Riding the Republican Bandwagon
http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2008/04/riding-republican-bandwagon.html
All Attention on the Army
http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2008/02/all-attention-on-army.html
20 comments:
What a piece of write up-truthful,it aches. When few with illiberal tendecies become blind as a bat in order to act servant with a sense of novel act which they know is against the vary notion of a sovereign nation- these things happen- antithesis to real Democracy that is inclusive rather than divisive- the Federal Setup of nation that has been intentionally fractured to suit the India's best interest. And these MOf have bought hook, line and sinker. There is just no dearth of people in Nepal who know more than they should.
Endless possibilities will abound- Shylocks. misfits and kiss -your-ass will shred this nation as piece meal to their benefactors as they falsely proclaim and their superiorty, relevance and know-it-all (Bhaun traits)as badge of honor. Never knowing or unknowingly what they have done is actually a last nail in the cofin of Nepal.
The dog days are here and be prepared to act like a dog.
You are right. The bulk of the ' liberal democrats' misread the outcome of the C.A.ellections and were mauled by the adverse outcome. Past atrocities of Maoists, they (N.C. and UML) assumed, would result in their poor showing in polls. To that extent they were indeed fools. The Maoist cadre was in constant touch with the people, to threaten, intimidate and extort money or material while the 'peoples war' lasted but thereafter in a well planned move of appeasement.They tagetted the Dalit and marginalised ethnic minorities first and won them over. In the meantime they had collected detailed information of and about almost every household in most constituencies, related to the political affiliation, financial resources, strengths and weaknesses. During these long years of active conflict
District level leaders of other political parties could not or would not go to the villages, or reach out to the grass root levels where the vote banks are located.
Finally, during the last couple of weeks before polling the YCL, many if not most earlier active in the war as combatants or leaders, approached each effective political activist of the opposition parties and tried to and succeeded in some cases, to convert, neutrlise or localise them through threat or alluring offers of cash or promise of future protection.
Yes, the leaders of N.C./UML were fools, the Home Minister particularly so. They chose to keep the state security forces on leash and the army inside the barracks.
But were they the only fools? What about the diehard monarchists? or those'tired of being painted with the Roylist brush' whom you appear to represent? If the liberal democrats were mauled by the poll results this section 'now offered limitless oppurtunities' were dessimated. Pray, what are these limitless oppurtunities? If you expond many may gain from it.
Finally, what really surprises one is not your views castigating all except the group you appear to represent or favour, which has been your unrelenting quest, but the fact that you still underestimate the Maoists. Please do not live in the royal paradise. Such a miscalculation will harm all those are still naive enough to understimate the new force of the country.
How fascinating! Sagar Rana appears to be a self-declared liberal democrat who is found preaching about Maoist tactics, after the fact. His comment bears the mark of a badly defeated party member who is whining about his humiliation, and pontificating the causes, when the causes were crystal clear since day one.
Typical characteristic of a defeated mentality.
Why does Nepali Perspective continue to publish questions and comments from cluless fools like Sagar when all the answers to his highly rhetorical blabbering are already in the writing itself? Why play the broken record when writers on this blog have been warning of the Maoist intentions relentlessly for over two years?
Are all the writers fools because they have been sounding the alarm bell or are people like Sagar Sumsher Rana the bigger idiots for having woken up after two and half years?
No Mr. Rana, only you and people like you have been the ones who have continued to underestimate the Maoists. This writer's analysis may have hurt you personally because you believe yourslef to be someone you are not. But his/her views regarding the possibilities that open up now are on target - none of these possibilites I am afraid, are of your cowardly, appeasing variety.
Should these avenues be pursued, I am sure you will be the first one to renounce them while at heart, the first one to thank your God.
Why? Because this is what political hypocrites do. Hypocrites like you, sir. They get ordinary people who have been wronged to do their dirty work for them.
I have to agree with Paribartan's assessment where underestimating the Maoists is concerned. It is beyond a doubt that the SPA, the civil society and the ultra-democrats are the ones who have seriously underestimated the Maoists.
As much distaste as I have for Gyanendra, I have to swallow my pride and say that the royalists are the only ones who were right about Maoist capabilities, all along.
I just hope that Bhaire is right and that with the outsting of the monarchy, a much needed balancing force will emerge from the tattered ashes of the SPA ranks. I hope MJF will take a much stronger stand as well. They are the only party capable of speaking the Maoist language - tit for tat, beating for beating.
This article is very provocative. But I enjoyed reading Sagar Sumsher Jung Bahadur Rana's reaction even more.
After a long winding explanation of the Maoist method, he finally concludes with the obvious thing that Bhaire is writing to represent his own position. Isn't that why people write? To represent their views?
Based on Sagar's comments, he is a "shining" example of the apathy and 20/20 hindsight that Bhaire's writing is about. Bhaire, whoever you may be, I am sure you are grinning ear to ear to have such mindless critics like Sagar SJB Rana, nipping at your heels.
Question for Sagar - If you are so convinced that the Maoists should not be underestimated, what did you and YOUR PARTY do for the past 3 years to deal with the Maoists effectively? Or are you just one more cheap provacatuer who is ready to switch sides at the drop of a hat to sing Maoist praises, now that the Maoists are on top?
Yellow-bellied cowads like Sagar digust me. And if this is the same Sagar SJB Rana from the Nepali Congress, I stand firm in my conviction that it is people like him, who are the disease of Nepal. Even after the humiliation he and his party have faced, he sees only the humiliation of a spent monarchy to blame. Stupid idiot. Good this fool spent his inherited wealth and never got elected to the CA.
It's no surprise how biased Nepal's "independent" media is. I have checked all the new sites on line this evening and have found no mention of the thousands who marched in protest of the republican setup and the abolition of the Hindu kingdom.
Bhaire, are you so sure that the monarchy is finished in Nepal? What possibilities do you see? Are you just day dreaming or what?
This is a really interesting point of view and one that has not been carefully evaluated. People are so fixated on when Gyanendra is going to leave the palace that they have missed the bigger picture.
Very thought provoking article. I wish more of this would emerge in our own Nepali media...
Now it's either the one party communist way or the military sponosred democratic way... there is no third option and I agree with raman from above that this perspective has not been widely considered... but is should be.
They seem to be preparing the stage for Girija baje to become the President in order to keep India and the army at bay. These jackals are smart and not to be underestimated for sure.
Paribartan is right.. Nepaliperspectives is one of the few blogs that has continually advocated a strong line against Maoist aggression. Too bad not many have had the time to read and apply the suggestions.
Now Mr. G Shah can look all those internally displaced people in the eye. Similarly, the probabilities are no less enticing for finishing off what he started with the parties and for exporting this well executed Maoist revolution to those delightfully restive states of beloved India.
Dr. Niraula, there were maybe 2 to 300 people who marched for the monarchy and a Hindu kingdom yesterday afternoon, not thousands. Let's not get carried away. And they marched TOO BLOODY LATE! What were these people doing for the past two years?? I'll tell you what. They had no leadership, no organisation and no funds. Guess where these items could have come from? Now, of course, it's too late for him - at least for now.
Even if the King turned out to be the worst enemy for the monarchy, what will recriminations serve at this stage? Let’s look ahead not back. Bhaire’s write up is refreshing and most apt in that sense.
Technically the proclaimation of Republic is flawed;therefore, there is a chance to overturn it if sane head prevail with independent judicary. The procedure which took place yesterday at BCCI was nothing but a script prepared at Bollywood (India)- to all the MOfs, just live to see a another day where Nepal is by Nepali and for Nepali.
Too much ambition of Girija is one of the major reason for maoist's success in Nepal. At any cost Girija wants to be a President of Nepal. He bet everything for that even his own NC party in the election, without preparation. He mentioned that his dream has been fullfilled in his first address. But what dreams ? historically loosing the election by NC and democratic forces or being successful to bargain for the president post? As being a democrat, he should be ashamed to request for that post with the maoist.
Now whom he is going to blame for his own failure after abolishing the monarchy is yet to be seen.
First day of Republic and one of my old granny has been threatened with dire consequencies if money is not given to as ordered by the Maoist. Simply call on the phone with a threat of bodily harm to her and her family if she declined or could not meet the Demand. Monay to be given to them at a certain location which is then to be deposited at their Koteshowor Office and finally at their office in Balaju. This place has become hell and how I wish I could shift from here - to lead a normal life with simple asiprations. The way things are-it ain't happening here any soon.
Horatio, to tell you the truth, from the middle of the crowd, the numbers looked more in the thousands than the hundreds. Assuming you were also in the crowd, I stand corrected if need be because playing the numbers game is rather silly.
I don't understand your questions because I believe you already know the answers.
But I want you to think about this. For as long as there is even a handful of people with the will and determiniation to bring about an outcome, there is nothing to stop that outcome from coming true.
As per the three leaders, the main hurdle to the economic development and political development is monarchy.
Now it is to be seen how much development these leaders will do to Nepal. As per them, the outcome should be golden era after abolishing the monarchy.
Lets wait for Etopia and golden era...in Girija rule.
Mr. Digvijaya Chand has it right. Let's look ahead not back. I hear nothing else these days but armchair politicians explaining what KG did wrong. Talk about crying over spilt milk. The curtains of history have fallen on KG. Now, the challenge is to ensure a multi-party democracy for Nepal. To do that, there must be a counter-force to the Maoists which can keep check on them and which can dislodge them in the General Election in two years time. There lies salvation. No more whining please!
From the pulpit in Tudikhel- the devils have spoken their true intent. Girja is out with the begging bowl and rest of others are on verge of jumping off the cliff. Maoist for all their murders and mayhem have remained in track- to get power by any means and parties have fallen headlong into their trap- there is little they can do now.
India has played a game that will slowly but surely make them as their previous staunch ally- Soveir Union. Piece by piece it will tear itself apart- and I do wish it upon them.
But our-so-called-leaders have proven in the history of human race- how to be a traitor, agents and abettor in killing of a nation.
All speed to the Maoists in turning Nepal into a communist republic - next stop India, starting with its northeast region via the strangulation of the Chicken’s Neck. In sowing the wind and reaping the whirlwind, India and Nepal are absolutely “bhai, bhai” – so how about, “Greater Nepal, bye, bye, Prachanda Nepal, hai, hai”?
There is no way out except to tie up ethnic parties and royalist to bring back democracy in line and block the Maoists in turning Nepal into a communist republic. The power lust Girija and Makune are the one who are responsible for this disaster.
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