(Courtesy: el Zorro)
The notion of eventual Maoist victory under the SPA’s leadership was continually argued after the signing of the “12 Point Agreement.” Maoist strategy and its tactical pillars were analyzed in the context of political developments; the resulting directional impact that clearly favored the Maoists’ agenda was highlighted again and again.
After nearly two and half years of fumbling around, the SPA's incompetence in the face of unwavering Maoist determination has culminated with the Maoists’ as the largest political party in Nepal’s newly elected constituent assembly. Legitimization of Maoist methods and tactics (which together form the backbone of Maoist strategy) has occurred. Now, the time to justifiably oppose the Maoists’, based exclusively on principle (namely, opposition to the Maoists’ violent, non-democratic methods), is over.
As far as the international community and the Nepali people-at-large are concerned, the Maoists’ won in the constituent assembly elections fair and square. The wisdom of questioning the Maoists’ electoral victory on a de-facto basis is certain to be counterproductive. If there was any shadow of credible doubt to have been cast, it should have taken the form of questioning the “fairness and freeness” of elections BEFORE they took place; not afterwards.
As bitter a pill as this may be for Nepal’s traditional democratic parties to swallow, they have no further to look than amongst their own ranks to rationalize the causes behind their lackluster electoral performance. Without a doubt, execution of the Maoists’ strategy has been superior and precisely timed; but to be completely fair, the NC and UML’s insistence on relying on “Indian benevolence,” hardly served these parties’ electoral agendas either.
National Reconciliation – The Maoist Version
The grace with which the Maoists have conducted themselves after their devastating electoral victory is noteworthy. The impetus behind such grace and fortitude is the need to simultaneously assure Nepal's southern neighbor, the private sector investor community, and also to ease the minds of the international community-at-large. Any meaningful measure of democratic intent in Maoist overtures however, is best made through observations over time; their post-election, knee-jerk reaction must be internalized in the context of what the Maoists have to lose by exercising the hubris that characterized their predecessors electoral victories.
By consoling the UML and reaching out to the NC, the Maoists accomplish two feats: Domestically, they fill a void in technical capabilities within their ranks, and internationally, they offer a multi-party coalition to keep their democratic critics at bay. By reaching out to the MJF, the Maoists' gain the upper hand by demonstrating their flexibility - especially because they understand that the MJF is the only party capable of playing hardball with them.
But the Maoists' masterstroke is the way in which they have proceeded to deal with King Gyanendra. As opposed to evicting the King from Nepal or putting him on trial under a kangaroo court, the Maoists' are actually testing public sentiment by floating various conciliatory proposals through the Nepali media. The hardcore anti-monarchist stand that was sold as the root cause behind the Maoist rebellion increasingly appears to be a hardcore drive for political power, and nothing more.
In short, the moves that the Maoists' have forwarded is the current day version of BP's idea of national reconciliation. The tragedy is that the useful idiots in the Nepali Congress aren't the ones championing their own founder's approach. Sadly, these fools are stuck toeing the original Maoist line while the Maoists have moved on to bigger and better things.
Nepali Nationalism - The Maoists' Hold the Cards
The royalist voter base in Nepal is a voter base nonetheless. The Maoists' offer the most sophisticated understanding of this reality and appear ready to take measures aimed at calming the hardcore rightists while enticing the agenda-driven right wing to join the Maoist ranks. They experienced some success in captivating the minds of fellow nationalists before elections, and appear ready to encourage other agenda-driven nationalists to follow suit.
Given their political interest, whether or not the Maoists' permit King Gyanendra cultural rights is immaterial. More significant is that the Maoists are the ones pushing to create space for Gyanendra within Nepal. Keeping an individual like Gyanendra inside Nepal's borders is an insurance policy against the popularity that a dethroned Hindu monarch would enjoy amongst the religiously inclined Indian population.
Further, the Maoists' seem to understand the core distinction in the royalist ranks better than all of their political adversaries combined. They understand that a portion of the Nepali population that chooses to pay homage to Gyanendra will do so irrespective of whether he holds a constitutionally driven title or not. It is the more rational, agenda-driven ranks of the royalist camp that the Maoists are interested in drawing to their cause.
In some ways, despite their wildly fluctuating public rhetoric, not forcing the monarch out of Nepal is similar to offering King Gyanendra an olive branch. More precisely, it's an offering of peace to the hardcore royalist ranks, the construction of an ideological bridge between the current and future nationalist flag-bearers, and food for thought for loyalist remnants within Nepal's military.
The Indian government's pre-emptive call to revise the 1950 treaty is music to the Nepali nationalists' ears. Recalling Prachanda's rant that begins with "Ultimately, we will have to fight the Indian Army…. (http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers3/paper277.html), probably has the most delusional nationalists, frothing at their mouths.
In summary, the Maoists own the Nepali nationalist agenda. There are no other contenders for this title. The useful idiots in the Nepali Congress who expect the disillusioned ranks of the royalists to come knocking on their door are in for an unpleasant surprise.
Concluding Remarks
Maoist strategy moving forward is certain to leverage the best of Nepal’s historical experiences. As discussed above, the Maoists are likely to continue borrowing heavily from BP Koirala's idea of national reconciliation and from the royalists’ idea of radical nationalism. The beauty of course, is that the Maoists are plagiarizing two of the most successful political agendas Nepal has known, while decimating the political identities of their original authors.
What analysts and political pundits should start thinking about is how they intend to rationalize steps when the Maoists start borrowing from King Mahendra's idea of a customized democracy? With national and international electoral legitimacy fully backing Maoist agendas and a plethora of credential-driven, conviction-less "democrats" to rely on, the Nepali people might as well buckle up and prepare to experience Nepal making history once more - Maoist style!
Related Posts:
Paradigm Shift - Where Does Nepal Stand?
http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2006/05/paradigm-shift-where-does-nepal-stand.html
Nationalism as a Political Agenda - Defining Nepali Interests
http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2007/12/nationalism-as-political-agenda.html
The Pitfalls of Relying on Indian Benevolence
http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2008/01/pitfalls-of-relying-on-indian.html
8 comments:
el Zorro strikes again. Excellent analysis. Now how about a follow-up exhorting NC and UML to stay OUT of the government and to let the Maoists govern - for a CHANGE?
Here four trends seem to be in operation. Namely:
1. Bargaining and haggling between the SPAM parties on the issue of forming the post-election government.
2. Demands for change of leadership and restructuring within the party by UML and NC cadres.
3. Demand and threats from the Madhesi parties, to give first priority to implement the agreement made by the government prior to the election, before all else.
4 The continuation of the " people's war" by the Madhesi Maoist parties, like JTMM etc. and the continuation of forced migration of the Pahadis from the Terai.
Horatio, there is really no alternative to the Maoists leading the next government. The MUST be allowed to govern at ALL COSTS.
Until the Nepali Congress forcefully removes Girija's generation, there is no alternative to the Maoist party in nepal.
It's not as simple as Zorro makes this out to be... but he/she does outline some very convicing and logical trends.
What do people think? Is this the end of the road for the Nepali Congress? I think Zorro is assuming that the UML is already finished since it is not mentioned anywhere in this article?
Hmmmm. Sikkim strategy is working perfectly for India though. As I outlined in the comments ages ago the next steps are:
1.Remove the Nepali Chogyal from the throne. How convenient the the maoists are doing it rather than their pet the Nepali Congress's GPK. So they do not get the blame. So no need to send the Indian army. PLA will do it. Perfect scenario
2. Start the agitations by various groups so that there is constant muddying of waters.
3. Fish in troubled waters. Perhpas in the present historical context it may not be possible to smash and grab Nepal a la Sikkim but emasculation and perhaps partial evisceration is enough for the Indian establishment.
Nobody in this country has visualised this game plan that was set in motion a decade ago.
Just remember that if a democracy grabs or Finlandises a country it is ok. Just check Sikkim. No protests no nothing for her. There will be no Richard Geres, Mia Farrows and other Hollywood set nor the likes of Nancy Pelosi to take up the cause unlike my northern next door neighbour, Tibet - China.
Best of luck to you Nepalis. Don't say you were not warned.
The sympathizers of NC and UML should figure out that what Nepal have achieved better things from NC and UML since their politics of 2007? The answers is definately nothing except chaos and ambiguty.
How many times people rely on them. The people had supported them in 2007, 2046, 2063..with the expectation of better Nepal, good politics and rule and peace.
My conclusion is, it is better not to make any high hope from NC and UML from now. The new young and dynamic democratic forces needs to be introduced where each and every ethnics and castes have their pie of share in the democratic power.
Regarding maoist, they will stick for 15-25 years if we expect anything good from so-called NC and UML democratic forces.
At the end, all these messes are due to the Girija and his power lust behaviour.
The interesting game played by the maoist was they had attacked and blocked the activities of the old rulers (what they call panchas and royalists) with the total support of NC and UML. When the old rulers found nowhere to go, the maoist shook their hands by tagging them as nationalist for their support. That is also one of the reason how they won the election. They made fool to NC and UML in this matter.
Girija "Lengdup of Nepal" has made Nepal nothing but mess. And his followers like human rights and civil society fooled the nation for their vested interest.
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