Disappointment at the Postponement of Nepal's CA Elections

(Courtesy: Satyajeet Nepali)

The news of suspension of the CA polls has to be taken with deep gravity. While EPA-supporters must be busy scraping together another typical apologist explanations and regular warnings of regressive conspiracies, the EPA-bashers are reveling at having been proven correct about the SPA-M alliance’s inability to deliver.

Amidst all this, one is eerily reminded of Russia’s October Revolution and our very own Lenin, Prachanda, threatening a similar one in Nepal last year. There was no October Revolution last year, only threats. But could those threats be played out this year? The CPN-M has reportedly called for a ‘jana-dabab karyakram’ on the day of the special session of the parliament. What do we make of this?

At this critical juncture, Nepalis need to remind themselves that, in 1917, Russia too had a Provisional Government set with the mandate of forming a constituent assembly to draft a new constitution for Russia. However, before this could be done, Lenin and his Bolshevik Party organized disgruntled soldiers, workers, and peasants to stage a coup and take over the government. Of course, this could only be successful because the Provisional Government had already lost much of its credibility.

Could the suspension of polls, and reports of a Maoist initiative to seek a vote-of-no-confidence against PM Girija be the casting to further erode the government’s credibility and unleash further disturbances later in the month? Given the Maoists’ past activities and the recent fiasco they created at Kantipur using their trade union, Nepalis need to be wary of such sinister plans.

Fortunately, incredible as it may seem, our state is still not as weak as Russia’s in 1917. The Nepali monarch, though detested and weakened, is not in bad enough a position to be forced to abdicate like Tsar Nicolas II of Russia. The Nepali Army, despite numerous attempts to humiliate it, remains a disciplined and intact force. These two pillars should make the Maoists balk at the prospect of enacting a Russian-style October Revolution in Nepal. Nevertheless, the Nepali Army needs to be ready for any eventuality now.

The SPA, if it wishes to retain even a modicum of respect and credibility from the people, it has to resist attempts by the Maoists to create any kind of power-vacuum, including a pre-election abolition of the monarchy. The Maoists cannot be given any opportunity to further undermine the state.