What’s Got the Maoists on Edge?

When jackals “roar” like lions, something is wrong. When Nepal’s Maoists start screaming “conspiracy,” something is right – that is, for everyone who rejects the idea that “power comes from the barrel of a gun.”

Lately, the salvo of rhetoric coming from “King Prachanda” and “Queen Baburam” has subsided into inconsequential ramblings and at times, even laughable rants. Contravening the unrealistically optimistic outcome that Maoist leaders paint for their cadre, they seem increasingly aware that their days of hiding behind an anti-autocratic vanguard are quickly fading.

The Parties, the people, the international community and even segments of civil society appear to have had the same epiphany: That the void created by the king’s abrupt removal from politics cannot be filled by an outfit, determined to qualify its rise to power through manipulation, coercion and the widespread application of gratuitous violence. Although belated, this realization is better late, than never.

Every step that disassociates the palace from politics, is a step that erodes the utility of the Maoists for India and centrist Nepali Parties. The Maoists know this, the Parties know this, India knows this and most important of all, the Nepali population that the Maoists supposedly govern, know this.

Dictatorial expediency vs. democratic latency

The SPA Government is weak and fragmented. The very values that the SPA’s constituents champion – pluralism, democracy, transparency – are what incapacitate the SPA. Playing politics by adopting the high ground does not draw short term adulation or praise. In Nepal, the handful of politicians who adhere to sustainable long term visions draw venom not only from the Maoists, but from fellow leftists within the SPA coalition.

To begin with, the mainstream Parties are no match for the dictatorial efficiency of the one-man, one leader, one party, Maoist machine. Dissent amongst the SPA’s constituents cannot be squashed like the purging of Pushpa Dahal’s opponents (within the Maoits).

To put this point in perspective, no one hears of the Maoists who questioned the swelling in Baburam and Pushpa’s personal wealth or the fact that Maoist leaders sent their children to some of the best schools in the world (including the London School of Economics and JNU). Even the buzz about Baburam and his wife’s temporary suspension from their leadership positions (for allegedly speaking against Pushpa Dahal), was quickly sidelined. The details of neither incident were disclosed for public consumption. Internal Maoist affairs, yes. Democratic transparency? Forget about it.

So naturally, the SPA is unable to perform at par with their expeditious adversaries and the Maoists know it. In fact, Maoist Spokesmen lead the charge in exploiting the alleged lack of efficiency which in reality, is a natural limitation of any democratic process. (Decisions simply do not foment overnight in democratic polities, the way they do in the Maoists’ world).

The most recent example of this type of exploitation is Baburam’s claim that “they (the SPA) don't want any progressive change. The government is dilly-dallying to continue in power.” In addition to the timing of Baburam's rage, the content of his delivery is very telling.

Such a callous outburst from the Maoist number two shows disregard for his political adversaries. It also demonstrates how little the Maoists truly understand about democratic decision-making and the idea of due process. For Baburam, the government’s decision to postpone peace talks is “dilly-dallying.” For everyone else who appreciates that talks for the sake of having them are meaningless, the SPA’s decision is justified.

In spite of all the coaching Baburam has received from his thesis advisor (SD Muni) and his Indian political allay (Sitaram Yechuri), he seems to have missed the point – revolutionary “quality control” measures that have propelled the Indian economy have not yet permeated into the Indian political sphere.

So, with each passing day, the fissures within the “made in India” SPA-M alliance are widening and are becoming more transparent. For the time being, the SPA portion of this eclectic amalgamation is holding, but only because of two exogenous factors: the intrepid and impervious characteristics of a handful of non-traditional Nepali politicians and the constant moral guidance provided by the international community.

The movers and shakers behind the scenes

The few unrelenting champions of the moral high ground come from different political parties and represent divergent viewpoints. They have different academic backgrounds and originate from varying personal settings. These distinctions in mind, there is one attribute that these leaders have in common – a shared conviction to not allow the Maoists to intimidate and cheat Nepal out of her rightful position as a success story of democratic innovation, self-determination and a model nation-state of exemplary resilience.

Fighting onslaughts on three fronts – the Maoists, their supporters within the SPA and a radical portion of Nepal’s civil society – this handful of leaders, soldier on with demonstrable dedication to Nepal’s future as a liberal democratic nation state. This minority (consisting of candidates within and outside of the SPA) are doing the right thing – they are risking their own political platforms by placing the greater good ahead of personal benefit. They are taking a stand that says they will fight tyranny and injustice regardless of where it comes from.

These leaders understand that divided, they will never be able to face the Maoist onslaught. They comprehend the Maoist game plan well and understand that continuing to ostracize the national military serves the Maoist agenda. Instead, these leaders are engaging the military, thus accelerating the army’s rate of democratization.

These leaders are forcing the issue on non-negotiable matters such as the complete and irreversible disarmament of Maoist forces (fighters and milita), prior to constituent assembly elections. Without attracting undue attention to themselves (by voluntarily appearing in the media limelight), these leaders are driving the agenda, the democratic way. By way of example, these leaders are grooming successors within their respective parties while ensuring that the impetuous, impulsive and power-hungry are kept at bay.

These leaders are truly a minority in Nepali politics and they know who they are. Instead of delving into the details of these individuals’ identities, let’s start simply by identifying individuals who do not belong to this elite group of visionaries – This group does not include the current Prime Minister and most definitely not the Home Minister.

Why the Maoist leadership is in a hurry

With each passing day, the messages put out by this minority group of politicians is gaining momentum. What each is doing individually, is fundamentally restructuring the manner in which Nepali politicians have conducted themselves, since the 1990 movement. With this restructuring, comes the evolutionary transformations in polity that Nepal so badly needs.

With every gain that these noteworthy politicians make, the Maoist politics of hate driven violence becomes less and less appealing. Not only does the rift get wider between the Maoists and liberal democratic / centrists forces, the rift within the Maoists widens as well.

Questions over the practical application of the Maoists’ idea of egalitarian equality will most certainly surface. It is unlikely that a Maoist who was abducted at 12, completely indoctrinated by 16 and has been roaming the countryside since, has any aspirations of educating his/her offspring in London or New Delhi.

However, when these Maoists (those who have been doing the grunt work) wake up to such startling disparities within their organization’s manifesto (and they eventually will), they will be demanding a lot more from their leaders than monetary reparations for years of their lives spent, chasing after a lie. These cadres will be demanding justice the way they have been taught their whole lives. Not a happy ending for the Maoist leadership.

Thus, the Maoists’ drive to get things done fast and move into cozy government positions before their cadres’ awareness exceeds the Maoist leaders’ capacity to deliver. Baburam and Prachanda’s insistence on delivering fiery speeches with dreams of grandeur and a red eclipse of South Asia are not only foolish, such acts are completely antithetical to the notion of a negotiated political solution and to peace for Nepal.

Some view the increasing risk the Maoist leaders invite on themselves, as reasons for why the leadership should be given a softer landing than they deserve. An important distinction here is that the issue of soft landing pertains specifically to the Maoist leadership, not the cadre-base.

If within a week, the Nepalese government found alternative and financially commensurate employment for the hardcore Maoist fighters, what’s to prevent these fighters from choosing amnesty and way of life that does not involve killing or the risk of being killed, every day? Is there any rational reason why a disarmed Maoist cadre-base could not be absorbed into a left leaning, albeit democratically committed party like the UML? In either scenario, it’s the Maoist leadership that would lose out, they know it and they’ll do everything they can to prevent such an outcome.

Others, who think logically, disagree with the notion of unjustified leniency for the Maoist leadership, primarily on grounds of principle. In the minds of these individuals, the Maoist leadership deserves no compassion for first, stunting Nepal’s progress toward a liberal democratic state and second, for refusing to moderate its rhetoric to conform to peaceful, democratic politics. With the passage of time and the continuation of unhelpful rhetoric, the numbers in the camp who choose to see through the Maoist leadership’s deception, will most certainly rise.

As the government-military relationship cements further and the true leaders in Nepal’s political sphere emerge victorious (over the debacle that is the collective SPA leadership), the Maoist leadership’s message will lose ground. As the international community continues to advise and buttress the efforts of Nepal’s few visionaries, the forceful attitudes of the Maoist leadership will continue to be resisted. And as the law and order situation is gradually brought back under the state’s purview, the Maoists’ tactics of fear and coercion will backfire.

The sum of all Maoist fears

The elements of contemporary politics presented above are all reasons as to why the Maoist leaders are on edge. And these are the same reasons why the Maoist strategy today, is directed at paralyzing the Nepalese economy through street protests, at diminishing the army’s morale, at driving faulty wedges between the army and the SPA government and at selectively criticizing “foreign interference.”

In fact, after realizing that UN involvement in Nepal actually implies the application of consistent standards to all groups (including the Maoists), it appears the Maoist appetite to cheer on the UN has suddenly (and not so mysteriously), diminished. Maneuvering as a rebel outfit, in opposition, was perhaps a luxury the Maoist leaders had significantly underappreciated.

Finally, if curiosity has got the better of you and you’re desperate to learn who the super star politicians implicated in this piece are, just read the news while asking the following question – Who are the Maoists and their supporters in parliament criticizing? The answers will most definitely address your curiosity and as the peace process becomes more structured, the answers will become increasingly obvious.