In Perspective The Weekly Nepali Source, October 12, 2006

On reactions of Nepalis who don’t live in urban centers…….

Based on interactions with people living outside of Kathmandu (and other urban areas), there is a lot of concern about the direction in which Nepal is heading. The management of arms, the issue of monarchy, stability and independence are areas of anxiety for pockets of relatively educated individuals in the Nepalese hinterland.

Others are committed to the Maoist line and speak of a “new Nepal,” free of American capitalist influence and Indian intimidation. They speak of their leader’s vision to raise a “people’s militia” the size of a small nation that will be able to stand up for the rights of downtrodden Nepalis and fight the regional “Indian hegemony” and the global “American imperialism.” They speak of the current talks as the pursuit of victory according to a modified Maoist philosophy and remain confident that triumph will be theirs.

The majority of Nepalis however, are simply content that the killing has paused and are busy meeting the daily challenges of feeding their families one square meal a day, collecting water and firewood and harvesting their fields in preparation for the winter time. Mixed emotions of optimism and pessimism pervade the majority of the Nepalese people.

While news of the Non Resident Nepali conference and the hopes of money flowing into Nepal has momentarily sidetracked those educated enough to appreciate the importance of such investments, the large majority of Nepalis are satisfied by the break in every day violence.

On the progress of dialogue between the SPA and Maoists……..

The dialogues between the Maoists and the SPA are proceeding without any meaningful results. Each day (and on some days at different times of the day), different rumors circulate in the capital. Even mentioning the variety of rumors that have flown around would be a waste of time.
No one expects results immediately and all one can do is eagerly await the outcome whether it is a temporary breakdown of talks (and the resumption of Jana Andolan III) or another round of “peaceful protests,.”

From what the Maoist leader Prachanda had recently said, it seems to expect anything but the resumption of violence (of a different variety) is almost unavoidable. Prachanda’s suggestion that people would soon find out what the “October Revolution” means and also the decisions already taken by the Maoists during their talks in Dhulikhel leave less room for outward optimism.

It is impossible to predict the consequences of another round of protests. What methods Maoists with guns in urban centers will adopt, how (or if) the police force under Minister Sitoula will react, how the country’s economy will be impacted is anyone’s guess.

On the “official” versus the unofficial view on talks……..

The official version is one of optimism, that progress is being made and a settlement is imminent. Despite this optimism, it is better to be realistic and rejoice with good news, but not become overjoyed when after two rounds of talks, the only concrete decision is on the least contentious of issues – when elections should take place.

The conventional wisdom is that whatever is happening now lacks constitutional and legal validity. Therefore, the first objective is to adopt the interim constitution to provide that legal validity. The second objective is to form an interim government with Maoist participation, so that the Maoists’ crimes against humanity are wiped under the rug and their violence is rationalized once and for all.

There seems to be much greater flexibility on all issues (including the mode of decision-making on the issue of monarchy). The only issue that remains non-negotiable is the management of arms.

Enormous pressure is being exerted psychologically by the Maoists on the SPA government. Pressure is also being exerted by India to reject the idea of bringing the Maoists into an interim government with arms. There is also pressure on the Maoists from radical organizations like Revolutionary International Movement to which the Nepali Maoists belong.

Although not in public, even Civil Society groups who receive a majority of their funding from aid money are pressuring the government to do everything possible so that the aid promised by the Americans and Europeans can still be available to “help the Nepalese people.” But of course, even the NGOs and INGOs run by Civil Society need funding before they can help the people.

The parties, the government, the Maoists, the civil society are all very much aware of how important international aid and funding is to the functioning of the state. If entire governments can rise and fall with changes in funding, there is nothing that can save a shaky coalition government that has partnered with one enemy to destroy another enemy.

On the impact of North Korea’s nuclear testing……..

The Maoists becoming less and less weary of the Americans, especially after North Korea's daring move. Mahmoud Ahmedinejad’s regime is also better positioned than before North Korea’s testing. With the axis of evil growing in strength and Indian policy on Nepal as shaky as ever, the little American focus that existed is bound to be distracted in more pressing theaters.

The Maoists are completely joyful. Rumor has it that a small gathering of the Maoist leadership held a private, closed-door reception to celebrate the coincidence of peace talks with North Korea’s nuclear testing.

Members of Parliament who expressed outrage at Thailand’s military coup and warned that a repeat may happen in Nepal also commented on North Korean testing. Obviously, the leaders were much more worried about the military coup in Thailand (that has proved to be a complete non-issue to the rest of the world) but expressed much less reservation on North Korea’s nuclear testing (which has angered even China!).

No one was listening in either case and if memory serves correctly, none of these leaders even dared to raise their voices when India conducted testing in 1997. Not that it matters because neither India nor Pakistan would take Nepal’s leadership with a grain of seriousness.

Interesting to note is that neither Human Rights Watch nor Amnesty International has extensive coverage on the Thai coup. Perhaps Thailand is not as easy to exploit for funding purposes as Nepal was. Where nuclear testing is concerned, this is so far beyond the field of human rights that criticism of nuclear armed states will probably drown criticism of North Korea’s testing because if America hadn’t invented the nuclear bomb, we wouldn’t be in this mess to being with!

On Maoist atrocities (during peace talks) that missed the media headlines………

Meanwhile Maoist abductions, illegal people's court verdicts and extortion (fund raising) continue, unabated. The incidents that happened from the first till the tenth of October 2006 are as listed below:

Abductions
-- Balibhadra Rana, former Mayor of Tribhuvannagar Municipality
-- Five persons in Pyuthan
-- One youth in Darchula
-- Deepak Dahal of Sijuwa, Morang
-- Porter Narayan Dunwar of Kavre
-- Former DDC President Khadga Chamling and 30 persons in Taplejung
-- Arun Sunwar, student from Bouddha, Kathmandu
-- Three persons from Khotang
-- Army man Nar Bahadur Chand in Baitadi (while at home on leave)
-- Laxman Shrestha of Sallyan

Collection of Tax
-- Collection of Rs.500 to Rs.2,500 from tourists
-- Collection of tax, with barrier posts, in Tulsipur (Dang), Bankatta-Deukhuri
(Dang) Agaiya (Banke), Dolalghat (Kavre), Fikkal (Ilam), Salakpur (Morang),
Jhumka (Sunsari), Bhardah (Saptari), and Marchaiya (Siraha)

Control over Public and Private properties
-- Private School in Chitwan to set up Maoists Training Centre
-- Compound of Petrol Pump in Inaruwa to set up Maoists post;
-- Sharada High School in Khanar, Sunsari to set up Maoists training camp
-- Panchkanya School, Bhojpur to set up Maoists army camp
-- Police Post, Suryapur, Jhapa

On charges of corruption by party leadership against a party leader in the current government….

Nepal Communist Party United Left Front (ULF) has itself initiated an inquiry commission to probe corruption charges leveled against Land Reform Minister Prabhu Narayan Chowdhary. Mr,. Chowdhary is a representative of this party in the SPA government.

It is alleged that the minister has amassed enormous wealth through transfers, promotions and appointment of civil servants. He is alleged to have collected money from different district land revenue offices under the pretext of Dashain kahrcha (festival expenditure).

ULF has set up an enquiry committee under Hemant B.C. to probe allegations that Chowdhary took bribes while appointing the new Guthi Prashashak (Trust Administrator) as well. People are asking for Chowdhary's resignation.

It seems the excuse of “the past government was much more corrupt than we are” is not being considered as acceptable by anyone, any more.

On child recruitment and international law……..

It seems that Maoists and the UML are competing with each other in enrolling young students for membership of student union. Thakur Gaire, President of UML's student union has made pubic the decision of the Union to give Union membership to students studying in Grade 1 to Grade 7.

Either the UN human rights body in Nepal is not aware of this public declaration or they are choosing to disregard it as lip service. For larger international human rights bodies, this affair is not worth the trouble of writing volumes on what is happening because it is happening under a democratic government that is struggling to keep it together. No point in pressuring this government and causing it to weaken. Also, no point in raising an issue that will never make international headlines.

On the historic outcome of the third round of talks…

The much awaited historic outcome of the third round of talks (which reportedly lasted slightly over 1 hour) is indeed historic. It is historic in the sense that there are probably very few examples from history when a rebel outfit (that has no democratic credentials) have adjourned peace negotiations by telling a coalition of 7 democratic political parties that they need to get their agendas straight. How about that for historic!!

The third round of talks in Baluatar coincided with a separate historic talk between the rebel leader and the UN’s man on the ground, Ian Martin. This was also historic because Martin is reported as pleading with Prachanda that the UN is helpless to act until the Maoists and SPA come to an agreement.

In response to this plea, Prachanda’s rejoinder was that the management of arms could only be discussed after political settlements. In other words, Prachanda told Ian Martin that he should expect no special treatment from the Maoists just because he represents the UN. Also, what Prachanda indirectly told the UN is that the UN’s usefulness to the Maoists expired the moment the UN recognized the insurgents as a political force. The UN’s usefulness for the rest of the peace process now hinges on whether the Maoists’ political agenda prevails without going through a political process.

All very experiences that will definitely go down in history!