Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Nepal Just Lost Rs. 80 Billion

(Courtesy: Sujit Acharya)

The website of the Department of Electricity Development states that survey licenses for potential hydro projects totaling more than 40,000 MW in capacity are being processed, and that the average fee to be paid to the department is Rs. 10,000 per MW. This translates into approximately Rs 400 million in license fees. Most of the companies that have applied for licenses are either Indian or Nepali with low or no financial and technical capacity to develop these projects.

The reason why many Indian companies have applied is because the license fee is extremely low in Nepal compared to India's price of Indian Rs. 1-2 million per MW. Most of the Nepali applicants are “hydropower brokers” or entities that do not have the capacity to build the projects. Their real intention is to unload the licenses in the resale market with a hefty markup. So joining the queue is a profitable business.

This very reason will continue to delay the development of hydropower projects because the conditions and intentions of most of the applicants are to try and find “parties” who can buy their licenses at a higher price and a “free equity” portion in the projects.

This means that the Nepali people are losing big money in potential revenue because the government is ignorant of the current energy market. The estimated income from applications for 40,000 MW would be Rs. 80 billion (8,000 crores). This amount is greater than all the revenue that the government received from other resources in 2007. According to the CIA World Fact Book, the government earned US$ 1.153 billion in 2007.

This load of cash will allow us to pay for our oil imports and free the people from having to stand in line for hours to buy gasoline. It is also enough to build roads and transmission lines so that more hydro developers (Nepali and foreign) can exploit more hydropower resources and generate more revenue.

Currently, as most Nepali companies do not have the capacity to build projects larger than 20 MW, project licenses above this capacity are going to be sold to foreign companies. This means that the cost of the license for a hydropower project in Nepal is directly influenced by the cost of the license in India (which is also the power evacuation market for most of our larger hydro projects).

Today, Indian state governments charge a minimum of Rs 2 million per MW (Nepali Rs 3.6 million) to interested developers to even just apply to bid for the license. Go to www.hpseb.com/tender/nip3.doc and check it out.

While this is just the minimum fee to apply to bid for the license, state governments make interested bidders compete to quote their highest price (paid to the government) for winning the license. Companies like GMR of India (which is building the Upper Karnali project) paid Indian Rs 9.2 million per MW for such licenses. Look it up at www.tribuneindia.com/2008/20080216/himachal.htm#8. Brakel Corporation of the Netherlands and DS Constructions paid Rs 3.6 million and Rs 5.2 million per MW respectively to the state governments. Go to economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/2162265.cms for the details.

Hydropower development companies in India are more than willing to pay this high price - and India is ensuring that it maximizes its revenue collection. Simultaneously, such competitive bidding for licenses ensures the entry of actual hydro developers instead of license brokers.

On the other hand, Nepal's licensing policy is handing out these precious licenses for almost free to companies who have seen this huge “discount” or to applicants who know they can sell these “discounted” licenses for a very high rate in the secondary market. This defunct hydropower policy is making Nepal and the people the real losers when our policies should be aimed at making them the real beneficiaries. This needs to stop right away!

If India can charge a minimum of Indian Rs 2 million per MW for a hydropower license and continuously receive much higher bids than this minimum, Nepal can safely charge Nepali Rs 2 million per MW which is still 37.5 percent lower than in India. The Electricity Department and the Ministry of Water Resources need to wake up immediately and plan to introduce this current market fee because of the following reasons:

  • Nepal's rate is much lower than the going price in a country where its hydro power licenses should be directed.
  • The real developers will be identified. The high cost of the license will eliminate brokers. Real developers would rather pay Rs 2 million per MW to the government than various brokers.
  • Unless genuine developers come forward, hydro projects will not be built. This means electricity will not be generated and the country won't be earning money from royalties and taxes.
  • Some will balk at paying Rs 2 million per MW complaining that the price is higher in India because there are more benefits to be had there. This is untrue.

Finally, there will be many critics who will question how Nepali developers can afford to pay Rs 2 million per MW and complain that the higher fees will discourage the development of Nepali entrepreneurs. Nepal's policymakers first need to think about the net benefits that can be received from this policy change in terms of the contribution to the country's economic progress. An increase in the rate will bring in more revenue for the government than it receives from all other sources.

There is nothing that should stand in the way of this policy change. However, it is also the moral responsibility of the government to ensure that Nepali hydro developers are encouraged. A reasonable compromise should thus be made. The price of hydropower licenses for up to 10 or 20 MW (the average capacity of Nepali developers) should be kept at its current rate of Rs 10,000 per MW. But for anything above that (in which most foreign parties will apply), the minimum rate should be set at Rs 2 million per MW.

12 comments:

Anonymous said...

Once again, another factually based and well reasoned argument! Thank you Mr. Acharya and thank you Nepali Perspectives. Please keep informing us on this most vital national security / well-being issue to Nepal!

Anonymous said...

It's not so much that the Nepali burecrats don't know... it's that they would prefer not to know.

Basically, the mentiality is "make hey while the sun is shining." All those in power are happy to make the margins on Nepal's natural resources... if the price were set at market rate, there would be no room for commissions on the side.

I agree with the comments from above. Unlike other pieces, this one is statistically verifiable and has a very pointed recommendation - one that should be implemented without delay!

Economic efficiency means eliminating overhead. In this case, it means eliminating the middle men. These are the hydro brokers that Acharya is writing about. A revised government policy should strictly outline requiremnets (technical and financial proficiency) as preconditions to awarding licenses - even at market price.

Anonymous said...

Very informative...

We are running out of time, lets join hands to form an organization to save and promote our properties without biasness and vested interest. Let's promote this blog to save and promote the properties of Nepal so that people will be aware in advance...

Anonymous said...

"United Nations study says that by the year 2025 – less than 25 years – two-thirds of the world will be "water-poor."

By 2015 private companies will supply water to almost 1.75 billion "consumers". In this context, it is not surprising to learn that water management companies are among the most hotly bought and sold businesses.

It has been said that water will be "the oil of the 21st century," or "liquid gold," and that it will cause wars between nations. Whatever happens with regard to global water, and the environmental, economic and political fallout, Canada will be a major player. Talks have intensified during the past few years on whether Canada should take advantage of its bountiful supply of water by selling it for profit – like gas, oil and timber.

Hope this matter will be seriously consider by Nepal....India might take advantage with this lucrative situation ans some gaddar leaders individually might take power to safeguard Idian interest. The whole game plan might be intesified by India to grab that opportunities.

Anonymous said...

What this writer recommends makes perfect sense to me. Is there any data available on the advertized license rate on the Nepali side versus the actual, recorded cost of license acquision on the side of the acquirer?

I ask because if these figures are available and do not match, then Yogendra's explanation of why the market rate isn't prevalent in Nepal will be validated.

And if validated, we should launch a public campaign and force these burecratic thugs to stand trial.

Anonymous said...

Anon 12:24 - I just commented on the artcile after this one, about the very issue you higlight in your comment.

India can be trusted to act in her best interest. When can we trust our leaders to act in Nepal's best intest (verusus their own vested interests)?

Anonymous said...

Imminent Water Crisis in India

Nina Brooks, August 2007

"There will be constant competition over water, between farming families and urban dwellers, environmental conservationists and industrialists, minorities living off natural resources and entrepreneurs seeking to commodify the resources base for commercial gain"

Millions of Indians currently lack access to clean drinking water, and the situation is only getting worse. India’s demand for water is growing at an alarming rate. India currently has the world’s second largest population, which is expected to overtake China’s by 2050 when it reaches a staggering 1.6 billion, putting increase strain on water resources as the number of people grows. A rapidly growing economy and a large agricultural sector stretch India’s supply of water even thinner. Meanwhile, India’s supply of water is rapidly dwindling. As demand for potable water starts to outstrip supply by increasing amounts in coming years, India will face a slew of subsequent problems, such as food shortages, intrastate, and international conflict.

Demand and Usage

In 2006 between the domestic, agricultural, and industrial sectors, India used approximately 829 billion cubic meters of water every year, which is approximately the size of Lake Erie. By 2050 demand is expected to double and consequently exceed the 1.4 trillion cubic meters of supply

Domestic

India’s 1.1 billion people need access to clean drinking water. The demand for drinking water is divided between the urban and rural populations, and comprises about 4-6% of total water demand.Due to the amenities of typical urban life, such as flush toilets and washing machines, people living in cities tend to lead more water intensive lives. The urban population has doubled over the past 30 years, now representing 30% of India’s total population and is expected to reach 50% of the total population by 2025. Population growth is going to accelerate the water crisis in India, especially as more and more people move into the cities and become part of the middle class. Currently 30% of the rural population lack access to drinking water, and of the 35 states in India, only 7 have full availability of drinking water for rural inhabitants. Most people who live in rural areas demand less water for day-to-day living than people living in cities, and the majority of their water demand comes from agricultural needs.

Agricultural

Despite the recent rapid growth in the services and industrial production, agriculture is still an integral part of India’s economy and society. Between 1947 and 1967 India underwent the Green Revolution, which concentrated on expanding farm yields by double-cropping existing farmland and using seeds with improved genetics.The result was a huge increase in agricultural production, making India one of the world’s biggest exporters of grain. The availability of canal water led farmers to adopt highly profitable, but extremely water intensive crops, such as sugar cane. In addition, India achieved its goal of obtaining food security. The rural economy sustains two-thirds of India's 1.1 billion citizens.Unfortunately, this huge surge in agriculture, required significant water resources for irrigation and accelerated the onset of present water shortages.

India’s agricultural sector currently uses about 90% of total water resources.Irrigated agriculture has been fundamental to economic development, but unfortunately caused groundwater depletion. If India wants to maintain its level of food security, farmers will have to switch to less water intensive crops. Otherwise India will end up being a net importer of food, which would have massive ramifications for the global price of grain.

Industrial

Water is both an important input for many different manufacturing and industrial sectors and used as a coolant for machines, such as textile machines. Cheap water that can be rapidly pumped from underground aquifers has been a major factor in the success of India’s economic growth. According to the Ministry of Water resources, industrial water use in India stands at about 50 billion cubic meters or nearly 6 per cent of total freshwater abstraction. This demand is expected to increase dramatically in the next decade, given the enormous forecasts of 9% growth for 2007 alone.

Sorry for pasting long...but we need to understand it...

Anonymous said...

well pretty good view, but will the gov.officer know that. They know how to eat chicken roast and beer from this licence holder companies.Eventually sooner or later our every project will be constructed by indians only.nepali does not have brain and courage to invest. They just show big belly and resides in house only. Next, the government is not interested to promote investment. So acharya don't think of dream of developed nepal, these may lead to become heart problem.No one here is interested in development rather that quarrel for post, money, girl ,power etc. Here developing a country is a crime and looting is the respected award.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous 2:34,

Thanks for pasting that piece of news. This is what Nepali policy makers should be paying attention to.

What can we do collectively to advocate for more prudent policy where fresh water is concerned? Can the moderators of NepaliPerspectives help launch a campaign?

Can we come up with some thoughts on how to move this agenda forward?

Anonymous said...

First of all lets make blog with the title like "water business in Nepal". lets make the ad of the blog in FM and whatever possible investments and grants. This is just the begining of my idea, we need more input from others as well. This not only save our water business but also help to bring the unity. Otherwise we can highlight this blog as well atleast one article in a week about water and nationalims...all we need is maximum ad..FM and banners can be the cheap ad....

Anonymous said...

I like the idea of "nationalism and water resources." But, to focus on the economcis and not so much the politics, I would leave nationalism out of the equation.

Also, what's wrong with blogs that already exist? Can't we just ask for a "tag" to be created to lump all water-resource related articles into a group?

I just noticed, this blog already lables its waster-related artciles under the following label - "Natural Resource Economics."

Maybe the moderators can help us as well.... any comments, from the moderators?

As for advertising through FM, that sounds like a good idea. The "Clustrmap" on Nepali Perspectives shows a pretty steady stream of traffic too. Actually, given that this is just a web log with maybe 1-2 articles per week, the number of visitors is quite high.

More ideas / input please. And could you please use a "name" for this discussion? It's easier to communicate that way. Thanks!

NepaliPerspectives said...

All -

A tag "Natural Resource Economcis" has been created and applied to all hydro-power / water-resource related posts on NepaliPerspectives.

You may click on "Natural Resource Economics" which is located on the right column on this web log.

Our moderators are open to other suggestions from our readership.

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