(Courtesy: Roop Joshi)
As of this writing, 11 days after the Constituent Assembly (CA) Elections, the Communist Party of Nepal – Maoist (Maoists) candidates have won 118 of the 234 direct vote seats for which results have been announced. This constitutes 50% of the announced seats, 49% of the 240 first-past-the-post (FPTP – direct vote) seats and 21% of the 575 total CA seats available (excluding the 26 seats to be nominated). All this even before the final results for the proportional representation (PR) seats have been announced. The tally of the PR votes is well underway. The Maoists lead handily, though it is unlikely that they will have an absolute majority (301 seats) in the CA. Have the People of Nepal spoken?
It is common knowledge that there has been wholesale pre-election intimidation by the Maoists. Leaders of rival political parties and their supporters have faced the wrath of the Young Communist League (YCL) mercilessly. Voters have been threatened, especially in the rural areas. Many voters were given a choice between voting for the Maoists or an end to peace. They chose peace. Even on the morning of Election Day, polling booths in Gorkha, Sidhupalchowk, Ramechap and Bhojpur districts, to name a few, were captured by Maoist cadres and supporters of rival parties were barred from casting votes.
Irregularities in numerous voting stations have also occurred. As an example, at one station in Kavre district only a couple of hours drive from the capital, voters cast their ballots repeatedly. The polling officers and the police security, all known well to the voters, simply turned the other way. A couple of international observers visited the station briefly, and all nefarious activities were put on hold. Once they left, the comedy continued. “Celebrity” observers, such as Jimmy Carter, stayed in the capital and lauded the fairness of the elections. They did not do any service at all to democracy in Nepal. It is little wonder that the Election Commission has instructed re-polling to be carried out in 106 voting centers which did not meet the code of conduct of the Commission, covering 21 constituencies. This makes up almost 4% of the 2,888 voting centers.
Another issue is whether the majority of voters know the nuances of a communist party. Dictatorship of the proletariat, class struggle, the bourgeoisie – these are but a few of the concepts that those who adhere to doctrinaire Marxism-Leninism use with grave sincerity. Would an illiterate voter, threatened and thoroughly intimidated, know that democracy has no great value in the communist lexicon?
Notwithstanding the aforementioned negative reasons for the Maoist victory, there are other factors at play. The demographics cannot be ignored. About 50% of the voters were under the age of 35. Most of these youths have no strong ties or allegiance to the traditional political parties or their leaders. In 1990, when a multi-party democratic system was instituted in Nepal, a youth who is now 35 would have been just 17 years old, too young to vote. The current exodus of youth to foreign countries for employment reflects reality for Nepali youths. Just recently, about 31,000 young people took the Korean language examination for eligibility to be considered for employment in South Korea. About, 6,800 have passed the examination – that is 6,800 too many bright young Nepalis with initiative who will be lost to Nepal.
The complacency of the other political parties, especially the Nepali Congress (NC) and the Communist Party of Nepal - United Marxist Leninist (UML), cannot be overlooked. The leader of the UML, one of the “big three” parties in the current government along with NC and the Maoists - as well as the leaders of the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP), RPP (Nepal) and Rastriya Janashakti Party (RJP) – all lost in the elections. The Maoists were supposed to obtain a maximum of around 20 seats in the CA. Domestic political pundits as well as the international community, especially India, miscalculated grossly! Besides the leaders, most of the senior stalwarts of the NC and UML have also lost.
Finally, the voters did want CHANGE. Since the advent of multi-party democracy in 1990, the NC and UML have held sway, for the most part, over the political throne. Their achievements have been dismal. In a stroke of enlightened public relations, and just before the election, the Maoists came up with the slogan “The others have been given their chance – now give us a chance”. They have been given this chance. Further, the grass-roots organizational strength of the Maoists, enabling them to get out their votes on Election Day, was unsurpassed.
The statement given by Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal (Prachanda) immediately following his victory in constituency #10 in Kathmandu was statesman-like, meant to allay the fears of those who were threatened by the Maoist victory. Despite the likelihood that the Maoists will have close to a majority in the CA, he asserted that his party is committed to democratic values and competitive politics. He promised that the new constitution will be formulated by a coalition, taking into account the views of all the other parties represented in the CA. He assured the international community that the new government will not be a rogue government, dictated by an outdated political doctrine (though not in so many words!). He dedicated his party to the goal of rapid economic growth. He said all the right words on the right occasion. Since then, Baburam Bhattarai, the Maoist ideologue and intellectual as well as Prachanda’s #2, has reiterated that the private sector has the major role to play in the forthcoming “economic revolution”. We will now observe whether these Maoist leaders, their party – and especially their youth cadre (YCL) - stand by them. In fact, it behooves well for the Maoist leadership to disband the YCL immediately as a token of its sincerity towards peace, security and democracy. Mao’s Red Guards did not stay around forever.
International sensitivities are also at play. India suffers from a multitude of threats from its own Maoists. It certainly would not like Nepal to support these Maoists or provide safe haven to them. The Nepali Maoists also remain on the United State’s “terrorists list”. These two countries, which lay claim to being bastions of democracy in the world and in south Asia respectively, will be observing the new government of Nepal with more than ordinary interest.
The Maoist leaders have already started speaking repeatedly of how they will magnanimously allow a ”graceful exit” to the king, once the first session of the CA “implements” (read “rubber-stamps”) the decision taken by the seven parties in the current Interim Government to abolish the monarchy for a republic. Can a decision taken by an unelected government, without seeking the people’s consensus, be valid constitutionally and legally and can the CA be forced to rubber stamp this decision? The CA has been constituted to draft the new Constitution of the country. It is this Constitution while must finalize the form of government and put it to the people’s vote. Should the first CA session abolish the monarchy, the new government will have begun its tenure on a totally undemocratic note, undermining all the rhetoric that go along with the call for a “New Nepal”. The rule of law, democratic norms, and regard for the people’s opinion will all have been thrown into the garbage heap of high-handed oligarchic dictatorship. Let the CA, and especially the Maoist-led new government, note this.
We will see predominantly new faces in the CA. The CA will be a more inclusive legislative body than any Nepal has ever seen before - with more women, various ethnic groups, madhises, dalits, and other previously underrepresented groups. The Maoist victory is really a challenge, a challenge by the People to the Maoists’ commitment to peace and stability, independence and development for this beleaguered nation. Will they be able to make up for their ruthless past that has left 13,000 Nepalis dead and many more homeless over the past twelve years? Unlikely. But with a careful amalgamation of vision, co-operation with all, emphasis on inclusiveness, incorruptibility, control of its youth cadre (the YCL), pragmatism as opposed to being slaves to archaic doctrines, and pure and simple dedication to building a “New Nepal”, the CPN-M may yet prove to the world, and more importantly to us Nepalis, that a communist party can actually come into national power via the ballot – a feat never before achieved on earth! We, the People, await this feat with abated breath and with eagle eyes. This time, the onus will be on the Maoists to deliver, with no way to shift the blame to any other party.
Related Posts:
Stubborn Koirala and NC's Impending Downfall
http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2008/01/stubborn-koirala-and-ncs-impending.html
Nepal's CA Elections - Assume Nothing
http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2008/02/nepals-ca-elections-assume-nothing.html
No comments:
Post a Comment