The Left Threat

(Courtesy: Siddharth Thapa)

Nearing his fourth year in office, there are very few achievements that the Indian prime minister can boast about. The recent fiasco surrounding the civilian nuclear agreement with America is an elaborate example of the failure of the Congress led UPA government to impact political changes in a progressive direction. Clearly, the alliance with the Left parties has yielded in diminished returns for the Congress at both the domestic and the international stage. But if the Congress wishes to move ahead in a progressive direction, it must (like Indira Gandhi), sever its ties with the communists.

It is imperative that the Congress cease cooperation with the Left to enable the Congress to chart independent economic and foreign policies that aims to take India to the forefront of global politics. CPI –M has maintained that India should import gas from Central Asia as an alternative to the 123 Agreement with the United States. However, the trade route for the central Asian gas project cannot materialise without political stability prevailing in both Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The latest edition of Newsweek described Pakistan as the world's most dangerous nation. It further reports that the ISI continues to maintain clandestine relations with Taliban and other Islamist fugitives in the hope of using them to wage Jihad in Kashmir in the future. Bhutto now under the threat of Islamists and the Taliban, was a pivotal figure in aiding the Taliban storm to power in Kabul. Bhutto had envisioned a secure neighbour under the Taliban so that she could use southern Afghanistan as a strategic trade route to build pipelines to import gas from central Asia to help the ailing economy of Pakistan. Unfortunately, Bhutto's strategy (which was heavily influenced by the ISI), backfired.

More significantly, both New Delhi and Islamabad have failed to take the peace talks forward. Therefore, how the establishment in New Delhi envisions importing oil from Central Asia that has to pass though Afghanistan and Pakistan still remains a matter of speculation.

Another component vital to India's national security and industrialisation of the Gangetic plains is the urgency to restore political normalcy in Nepal. Nehru, India's first prime minister once stated, "our border lies up until the northern Himalayas". Following Nehru's statement, Kathmandu debated the context of Nehru's speech at length. But the Nepali political circle tacitly approved this remark by identifying the common threats that endangered both Nepal's and India's national security.

However, the latest Indian policy to aide a former rebel outfit like the Maoists under the influence of the CPI –M suggests India has perhaps deviated from the liberal Nehruvian doctrine that helped shaped Indian foreign policy. Like radical Islam, communism is a dogmatic ideology that supersedes geographical boundaries. The continued failure of the Indian government to understand the nefarious schemes of their Left coalition partners to help the Maoists rise to power, continues to remain ignored. The net result of this lackluster policy vis-à-vis Nepal will only complicate security issues and undermine economic development in northern India.

Although largely ignored in New Delhi, the Maoist movement in Nepal should be viewed as a symbolic political movement in South Asia. Today radical communist parties operate not just in Nepal, but in India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and even in Bhutan. As identified by Indian PM Man Mohan Singh, the Naxalite movement in India remains the largest security menace to the Indian establishment. The compact political corridor that the Naxal's and the Maoists want to erect is gaining momentum due to the lack of policy in New Delhi. Even though Maoist Chairman Prachanda might have wept in Delhi declaring the Nepali Maoists have no nexus with the Naxal's and COMPOSA, recent intelligence reports indicate otherwise.

In a report submitted to COMPOSA by the Maoist Chief Prachanda, he reaffirms his party's commitment in preserving and further bolstering its ties with regional communist parties. In a candid revelation the report submitted to COMPOSA by Prachanda this summer declares: "On several occasions we have brought out our assessment that the domestic situation in Nepal is favorable and ripe to capture central state power in the near future but as all the genuine communist parties engaged in revolutionary practice know that the international situation is quite unfavorable to accomplish new democratic revolution to sustain it."

However, Prachanda's conclusion in his report to COMPOSA is the most important part of his report; a close read will magnify the eventual plan and aim of the Maoist movement in Nepal – "The enemy who is attacking our party especially its youth wing "YCL", with whatever they find in their hands, has generated mass resentment against the enemies. And our mass line, discipline of our PLA and political line has gathered momentum to prepare the ground for the final insurrection. We are utilising this transitional phase to spread our base and consolidate it, to get rid of our own short comings and bring disintegration in the enemy's camp (Nepali Congress, RJP, RPP, MJF, Nepal Army and the monarchy) so that we can give a final blow and usher into the country a new democracy.

Tare serious hurdles on both fronts to the Indian government. Nicolas Burns, the US under Secretary of State for political affairs, in his article, 'America's Strategic Opportunity with India', in the latest edition of the journal Foreign Affairs has identified India as one America's most important strategic partners in global affairs. To live up to such expectations, first, India has to curtail and confront the growth of communism and radical Islam in India and in its neighboring countries. As the leftist's continue to espouse sentiments of self determination, the likelihood of further ethnic confrontation and possible disentrancement with the center evolving into secession movements cannot be ruled out.

Already, Nagaland, Mizoram, Andhra Pradesh (Telganga) and more evidently Punjab in the past have all posed threats to India's national unity and integrity. Therefore, should Nepal fall into the hands of the communist, Nepal will serve as a core state for further communists movements in South Asia directly threatening India's national security. As India strives to make gargantuan economic leaps, it is crucial that India generates necessary energy fuel to meet the demands of its growing industries. The 123 Agreement can therefore provide India with a strategic advantage in Asia. However, as the Left continue to question the rationale of this deal; its feasibility and eventual implementation of the 123 Agreement remains questionable.

Ultimatley, India will have to seek other alternatives to meet the soaring demands of its economy for more energy. Some of these alternatives can be found in the rivers of Nepal. However, for the development of any realistic hydro power projects in Nepal, it is essential that peace and the democratic forces prevail in Nepal's political uncertainty. For this, it is sacrosanct that the Maoists in Nepal and other members of COMPOSA are confronted and viewed at a similar level of policy analysis by all agencies that help shape India's strategic policy at home and abroad.

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http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2007/09/looming-election-fiasco.html

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http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2007/08/girijas-grand-design.html

India's Dubious Silence
http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2007/07/dubious-silence.html