After the successful culmination of Jana-Andolan II, Nepal has transcended from one authoritarian regime to another. Although the Jana-Andolan has brought about a positive political change, our leaders have failed to adhere to the values of a 'New Nepal'. At this point in time, the predicament surrounding the possibility of elections in November has triggered wide-spread debate. However, given the prevailing state of lawlessness in the country, elections are impossible. But that does not give any space for the EPA leadership to convene the present parliament into a Constituent Assembly.
While the international community and the general populace have been assured that the elections will be held this November, Machiavellian political pundits in Baluwatar are busy chalking alternatives to the polls. Out of the many designs in the grand scheme being planned, the first is to convene the present parliament into a Constituent Assembly. Except for the UML, two of the other major players, Girija and Prachanda have reached a conclusion to translate the present parliament into Constituent Assembly.
Second, the Prime Minister is all set to become the first President of Nepal, a la Nelson Mandela. The Maoists have convinced Koirala to make history by taking the top job of Presidency as soon as possible. Therefore, the latest move by Koirala to prompt "The Baby King Theory" is because the Koiralas in Baluwatar and the Maoists speculate that the King might not abdicate in favor of Prince Hridendra because the government will not be in a position to guarantee the Baby Prince's succession to the throne. Gyanendra's insecurities will be capitalized upon by these forces as 'non-cooperation' and will serve to pave the way for an immediate declaration of a Republic.
Shekar, the Prime Minister's nephew is being perceived as the heir apparent to the Koirala family. Sujata has been sidelined, while Shashank has remained aloof from politics. Taking advantage of the feud within the Koirala family, the Maoists have quite cleverly given the illusion to Shekar that the Koirala family is very much a dynastic component of the institution of democracy in Nepal. And as a consequence, after Girija Babu, the Maoists will wholeheartedly support Shekar for this top post. Perhaps this is why Shekar has been backing the Maoists in an effort to consolidate his place as the future politico of the Koirala family.
Last but not the least, the Home Minister's role remains controversial. It has come to notice that the Home Minister has forcibly manipulated reports prepared by the Home Ministry and the Intelligence Department to falsely charge perceived political opponents. KP Sitaula remains busy pocketing hefty commissions. What is alarming is the fact that when the Maoists captured former PM SB Thapa's land in Dhankuta, it was Sitaula who urged the Maoist on in a bid to demoralize Thapa.
Similarly, the bashing of UML cadres in Jhapa, Sitaula's constituency, by YCL cadres in the past clearly suggests that the Home Minister is working in tandem with the Maoists and vice-versa. If not, why didn't the State take action against YCL? Repeated bashing of UML, NC, NC-D,RJP and RPP cadres by the YCL raises questions as to why only those individuals who failed to toe both Sitaula's and the Maoists' line of thought, have received physical and mental assaults.
In yet another shocking revelation, increasing Maoist atrocities were in fact planned to derail the elections in November, so as to convene the parliament into a Constituent Assembly. The master planners remain Sitaula and Shekar - the Prime Minister is well in tune with their game plan. So, is this Girija's grand design?
If the politicians in Baluwatar are planning to convene the present parliament into a Constituent Assembly, ironically the same people are still adamant about holding polls this November. However, it now becomes essential to ask what might have prompted Koirala to explore the possibilities of translating the present parliament into a Constituent Assembly.
Initially after assuming the responsibility of a Prime Minister, Koirala had genuinely believed that it was possible to solve all issues through the peace process and conduct elections that would provide a lasting solution to Nepal's problems. Unfortunately, Koirala's policy to appease the Maoists and to humiliate UML and NC-D has backfired. Today, the Maoist operate as an "extra-constitutional force" and the government still has not been able to generate adequate political will to contain the Maoists within the realm of the constitution. Therefore, the greatest obstacles to the elections in November are the Maoists who have consistently breached the Comprehensive Peace Agreement.
Nonetheless, the most important facet that can help describe Koirala's intention to convene the present parliament into a Constituent Assembly is purely for his political security. Today, almost over a year after the reinstatement of a multi-party government, the Koirala government's survival is being questioned from all quarters including his EPA allies. Perhaps Koirala had genuinely believed in the Baby King theory and perhaps he actually thought elections could be held. However, the law and order situation has taken a nosedive and the environment is anti-current for elections as long as the Prime Minister fails to generate political will. Therefore, as a consequence Koirala might have been made to believe that in order to secure his political survival - Koirala has to reconcile with the idea of convening the present parliament into Constituent Assembly if conducting elections in November is a distant reality.
Related Posts:
Second Amendment to Nepal's Interim Constitution - No Cause for Maoist Joy
http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2007/06/second-amendment-to-nepals-interim.html
Nepal Government "Pays" Maoists for Peace
http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2007/06/nepal-government-pays-maoists-for-peace.html
The Koiralas’ Crown Compulsions
http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2007/05/nepal-koiralas-crown-compulsions.html
Nepal's Struggle with Feudalism and Fatalism - Moriarty, Martin and Manmohan as "Gods"
http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2007/05/nepals-struggle-with-feudalism-and.html
Bahunists and Bahunism - A mini-Dissertation on the Caretakers of Nepal's Feudal Tradition
http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2007/03/bahunists-and-bahunism-mini.html
5 comments:
As usual, an excellent analysis by Mr. Thapa. I do hope though, for the sake of near-term political stability, Girija babu stays alive for another year.
Has anyone divined what Girija babu's designs are on joining Nona ji in hell?
Girija's whole grand design is going to be failed in future. Neither the maoist nor the congress and UML is going to lead the Nepal. They are being used as puppets for certain period only.
Girija Bahnun needs to make way for non-Bahuns in the Nepali Congress. Fair representation needs start from within, then only he can talk about representation in front of others.
If the brahmanbad is not removed from parties. This country will lead by the different ethnic groups/ parties.
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