While supposedly brokering a deal to impact democratic changes and bring about lasting peace, in reality, the power brokers in Kathmandu and New Delhi have come to a stark realization that they are now embroiled in a political quandary with no easy exit strategy or panacea for Nepal. Even worse, the peace process has transcended into a multifaceted quagmire.
Behind the back drop of all this is the parody of the establishment of Loktantra – the reluctance of the EPA government to announce fresh poll dates. The sole mandate of the Loktantric revolution was for the Maoists to renounce violence and for the new transitional government to conduct elections to a Constituent Assembly. The worrying aspect that remains veiled from public observation is the murky politics in the name of Constituent Assembly elections.
An important facet that cannot be ignored at this stage (by the political leadership) is the rapid deterioration of authority and legitimacy of the government in the absence of elections. Sadly, elections aren't desirable to most. And even if they were, it would still be an uphill task to announce both the poll dates and conduct elections in a free and fair manner.
By purposely deferring the poll dates, the Prime Minister has indeed killed two birds with one stone. First of all, the Maoists who commanded an equilibrium of fear and expectations in the hearts of the general public, find that their inscrutable image is fast eroding. Instances of public agitations against them, police raids at the YCL offices and the arrest of their cadres, is indeed symbolic. However, for people to protest against growing Maoist atrocities, it is a prerequisite that the government enforces strict law and order. Unfortunately, the inability of the state security organs to foil YCL violence has severely demoralized the general public.
Second – the last time elections took place was eight years ago. Mainstream parties (barring the Maoists) have been isolated from constituency politics, therefore suggesting that if the elections were to happen when the law and order situation in the country is virtually non-existent (and the parties isolated from their constituency due to Maoist fear), it is certain the Maoists can indeed sweep the polls. However, one must ask: "has a major political crisis been averted by deferring the polls?" Koirala might have avoided an immediate political crisis but what about the impending political crisis in the name of elections?
The lethargy of the transitional period heralds two possible scenarios, both of them equally Machiavellian in nature. The first scenario is concerned with the poll dates. As new reports have emerged concerning the proposal of the merger of PLA into the national army, it won't be long before the Maoist leadership concurs that the announcement of poll dates will depend on the government's willingness to absorb a chunk of the PLA into the Nepal Army.
The idea of course is idealistic and euphoric in nature. This ludicrous idea, floated by leftist think tanks and partisan civil society leaders is the call for the integration of the rebels and the national army. Can an ideologically committed outfit such as the rebel army harmonize the balance in the state army or is it just a ploy to trigger a mutiny? In any event, the possibility of the polls hinges on Koirala's readiness to give into the Maoist proposal of merging the two armies.
The second of course is the postponement of elections with no alternative dates in sight. The rebels are ideologically committed, politically astute and strategically wed to their cause. The parties on the other hand need to demonstrate more commitment for their own existence.
It does not require a rocket scientist to conclude that all major power brokers in the EPA are playing with time in a battle for dominance. As political parties fail to keep the rebels in check, the rebels' undemocratic tendencies sweep the floor of urban centers. While political parties are busy tussling amongst each other, the rebels busy themselves concentrating on consolidating their reach within urban centers and within state institutions. As the political parties are engaged in securing hefty business deals and naively remain silent on Maoist excess, the policy of playing silent will backfire as the rebels continue to overwhelm the democratic institutions slowly but remarkably efficiently.
In their effort to mount pressure on the embattled Prime Minister, the Maoists have now floated the idea of a leftist alliance. Should the UML and Maoists come together in an alliance, it predictably heralds an explosive scenario. But it will ease the confusion perhaps, as once and for all, a clear line will be drawn separating the democratic forces and the non-democratic forces in the country. What is also inevitable is the demise of the UML, as the Maoists will emerge as the mother party in the leftist alliance.
But this situation alone can peeve Koirala, compelling him to indefinitely defer the announcement of poll dates. In either event, it is highly unlikely that elections will happen in the immediate future. The political party that can continue on top as the dominant force during the transitional phase without the need of elections to legitimize their authority will emerge victorious.
Has Koirala subverted a political crisis or does he find himself embroiled in a deeper political crisis in the days to come? The vacuum has indeed radicalized the Maoists but again, all this manoeuvring is with the aim of political dominance and out doing one another. Can Koirala swim past the nets cast by his own colleagues in the cabinet and his party, and most regrettably, by his own Home Minister?
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