Political Strategy to Balance South Asia’s Leftist Equation

(Courtesy: el Zorro)

No one but the Maoists themselves can burst the "peace bubble" in Nepal.

The reality of what has happened in Nepal will only hit home once the Maoists take on the Nepali Congress (NC) - and this eventuality (whether during constituent assembly elections, during campaigns or at the poll booths) is guaranteed.

All things being equal, Nepal’s comprehensive peace agreement fosters a political landscape where the claim of the legal left (the United Marxist Leninist party) to having "infiltrated" the Maoists (to mainstream them) will be invalidated.

In other words, where gaining political ground is concerned, the fact that the Maoists have systematically eroded the UML's (United Marxist Leninist) grass roots (outside urban centers) will become increasingly transparent. Essentially, the UML's leadership will become a "decapitated head" - no pun intended.

This is why increasingly erratic statements continue to emerge from the UML’s leader, Madhav Kumar Nepal. He understands that the rise of the Maoists means the destruction of his support-base. Hence the proposition of a referendum on the Monarchy, acquiescence to the idea of a United Republican Front, and the empty threat that the UML might not join the interim government.

If one digs deeper into such statements, it becomes apparent that these are words of desperation. None of Madhav Kumar Nepal’s recent propositions make sense - every one of them places the UML at a distinct disadvantage vis-à-vis the Maoists.

No party in Nepal can pretend to compete with the Maoists using the "republican" slogan. Madhav Kumar Nepal’s suggestion of a Republican Front is negated by the fact that it is not the UML (the legitimate, mainstream, democratic face of Nepal's leftist ilk) but the Maoists who will reside at the helm of any such coalition. The Maoists know this, which is precisely why they don't give the UML (or its leadership) the time of day.

It is also of consequence that much of the struggle between the student wings of the UML and the Maoists has gone unreported by Nepali media. This is a result of the Maoists’ grip on the peace agenda, which they hold can only be delivered on their terms -- the only ones they accept as legitimate.

It was only last week, after Maoist students gave the NC’s student wing a publicly humiliating thrashing, that the news made Nepali headlines. There was no mention of the UML’s student wing taking a Maoist beating only the day before.

What is happening at the student level is a microcosm of a larger phenomenon at the leadership level. In effect, the strategic ramifications of the peace agreement will yield a situation where ideological clashes will take the bottom-up approach.

The UML is no match for the Maoists. After the UML is absorbed, the only remaining obstacle to Maoist domination is the Nepali Congress. While Girija rests behind the fallacy that the NC-Maoist alliance serves the NC’s cause (during CA polls), the Maoists are busy entrenching themselves at the grass roots.

When time for polling comes, the NC’s access will not proceed beyond the district HQ level, and there will be many more clashes between NC and (soon to be) “United Maoist” cadre. Girija will probably die in the knowledge that his last act in a position of power greatly facilitated the decimation of his own party (Girija’s “dynasty,” as it is called by many).

It is late in the day but not hopeless. There is a narrow window for action. For credible opposition to the upcoming leftist onslaught, the following conditions must be met:

• Emergence of a right-of-center Party/Coalition. The only agenda of such a group (party) should be the following: “opposition to any group in Nepal that leverages (or has leveraged) a history of violence to attain power.” It must, in its party platform, distance itself from the king and work continually to challenge the Maoists on the basis of the Maoists’ violent path to power. The monarchy is an agenda of political concern only as long as the Nepalese polity chooses to view it as such. Much more serious is excusing the Maoists’ violent past in return for “peace.” Nepalese deserve better than being held hostage to peace – justice should be ubiquitous, not selective, and definitely not subject solely to Maoist interpretation.

• The Nepali Congress must face the consequences of its shortsightedness. The process of the NC “feeling the heat” has already begun, and it must intensify -- not at the hands of any other group, but purely at the hands of the Maoists. If the Feb 1st escapade has made anything clear, it is that the NC commands complacent intellectual assets (all of a single caste composition) that have global reach. In order for the NC leadership (and its supporting assets) to feel threatened, thus to be shocked into realization that their very political identity is in mortal peril, they must first recognize where the threat is coming from – the Maoists. The NC must also realize that the Maoist agenda of “eradicating feudalism” extends to the decimation of norms and practices that define the very core that is the Nepali Congress. The purported Maoist drive on this front won’t stop after it has finished off the Palace, the UML, and the smaller, right-of-center parties.

• The State military must be kept intact. This is easier said than done. However, the posture the military has adopted thus far is correct. The state’s armed forces continue to maintain a calculated distance from both the palace and the parties. The state’s army must continue to remain “master-less” (completely impartial) until the erection of a democratically elected polity. The transfer of control over military assets from the Palace to the Nepali Congress (no matter how externally democratic this party portrays itself to be) would be unacceptable. The challenge for the Army is to continue maintaining its current posture while keeping its most elite troops motivated, determined, and capable of facing any and all eventualities.

• The invalidation of the fallacious calculations of Nepali intellectuals must continue. The Nepali intellectual discourse that lends disproportionate sympathy to the Maoists must continue to be attacked and diminished. The propaganda line that holds to be anti-Maoist is automatically to being pro-palace must be exposed for the lie it is. The merits of an anti-Maoist, pro-peace political platform must be set forth and maintained independent of any other agenda. Simultaneously, specious arguments that portray a Maoist change of heart must be relentlessly hammered using examples of on-going, un-checked Maoist aggression against the population.

• The South Block has to be provided assurance of an alternative to the Maoists. The Indians’ ability to leverage the American position on Nepal to enhance its political clout should be taken away. Nepal’s sovereignty is lost, and American policy in this regard has inadvertently forwarded Indian dominance of South Asia. With this realization in mind, American “consultations” with New Delhi should be ratcheted up to yield a firm position on whether or not an armed, extremist element in Nepal can ever hope to be transformed into a credible, democratic force. Above all, the Indians desire respect and recognition – they want to be seen as the arbiter of Nepal’s peace (without being seen as the antagonist behind the Maoist conflict). American policy on this issue should be reformulated by placing emphasis on Indian strength, while simultaneously drawing the precise Indian position out into the open. There is the risk of such a move resulting in a Maoist-polity in Nepal in the short-run, but it will most certainly guarantee a more equitable solution in the medium-to-long-run by forcing New Delhi to put at stake that which its values most – its reputation. If Nepal goes to the gutter, it won’t be a headache for Washington! Indian awareness on this issue has to be immediately resurrected. Nepalese too, have to quickly learn to fight their own dirty political battles without having the Americans, Indians, or Chinese fight these on their behalf.

• The UN presence in Nepal has to be leveraged more effectively. The situation in Nepal is as much a challenge to Nepalese as it is to the UN. The UN’s past in making peace has to be continually highlighted to accentuate former mistakes, thus to hedge against the replication of such blunders as Timor and Kosovo in Nepal. If executed properly, this strategy has the potential to erect a natural check against Maoist aggression, using a tool that the Maoists themselves have employed to gain legitimacy – the UN. This could be an extremely powerful lever, but for this angle to become effective, enforcement mechanisms and consequences of being non-compliant have to be clearly spelled out in the Peace Accords to enable UN action.

The elements needed to forward this agenda are present but currently without leadership. The biggest tangible impediment is the lack of resources.

If the resources become available, there is no scenario that cannot be brought to fruition in Nepal. The April uprising is a perfect example of how far a “dollar” can go in a country where the vast majority are concerned primarily with a single challenge – how to put food on the table, once a day.

There are many methods that, if brought into play immediately, could undermine the Maoist agenda by exposing it for what it truly is – 13,000 dead, 200,000 displaced, uncounted maimed and kidnapped -- all for a handful of failed politicians making a mockery of democratic processes by holding the world hostage to a false agenda of peace.