The following assumption apply to the analysis produced below:
Assumption-1: The figures outlined below are based off the last public declaration of stolen arms as publicized by Nepalese Security Forces (SF) (under the Unified Command structure). The date of this declaration was approximately November/December of 2004, after which a series of additional skirmishes took place. Maoist combatants succeeded in stealing additional weapons from State forces during each of these encounters.
Assumption-2: For reasons stated above, the volume of weapons declared stolen by the Maoists (outlined in the analysis below), are slightly deflated. The actual numbers should be higher.
Assumption-3: Additionally, it should be noted that the official numbers presented below already account for weapons that were recovered by the Security Forces (at the time the numbers were revealed in 2004).
Assumption-4: An "apples-to-apples" comparison is impossible at this time because the UN's inventory lists totals based on weapon classes - details to the underlying totals have not been made public. The baseline used in this analysis (as declared by the Security Forces) offers much greater detail and classification. A one-to-one comparison between the inventory declared by the Maoists and weapons documented as stolen by the Security Forces, is impossible.
A. Infantry Support Weapons
Inventoried by the UN (Declared by the Maoists): The Maoists have declared 91 mortars of which 55 are locally manufactured. It is assumed that a total of 5, 40-mm rocket launchers which were declared, are also included in this count.
Official Statistics (Declared by the Security Forces): During the course of the insurgency, the Security Forces lost 11, 81-mm mortars and 19, 2-inch mortars. This accounts for a total of 30 infantry support weapons.
Analysis: Assuming that the 5, 40-mm rocket launchers (declared by the Maoists) are a part of the total 91 weapons, it would appear that the Maoists have purchased 6 additional mortars. If this assumption is incorrect, then the Maoists have purchased a total of 11 infantry support weapons.
Results: The Maoists receive a passing grade in this category. The declaration provides clear evidence that the Maoists had purchased additional infantry support weapons. The passing grade is based on the assumption that the Maoists have declared all of the infantry support weapons they purchased.
B. Sub-Machine Guns (SMG) / Semi-Automatic Weapons
Inventoried by the UN (Declared by the Maoists): The Maoists have declared a total of 61 SMGs to the UN.
Official Statistics (Declared by the Security Forces): During the course of the insurgency, the Security Forces lost 121 SMGs.
Analysis: A total of 60 SMGs remains unaccounted for. Additionally, an undocumented number of Sterling sub-machine carbines (often captured in pictures of Maoist combatants posing for the media), remain unaccounted for.
Results: The Maoists receive a failing grade in this category with approximately 50% of stolen weapons remaining undeclared.
C. Machine Guns / Fully Automatic Weapons
Inventoried by the UN (Declared by the Maoists): The Maoists have declared a total of 61 machine guns to the UN.
Official Statistics (Declared by the Security Forces): During the course of the insurgency, the Security Forces lost 5, General Purpose Machine Guns (GPMG), 72 Light Machine Guns (LMG) and 1 MINIMI (squad support weapon). This accounts for a total of 78 automatic weapons.
Analysis: The discrepancy between the officially declared and stolen weapons is 16.
Results: The Maoists receive a failing grade in this category also.
D. Rifles
Inventoried by the UN (Declared by the Maoists): The Maoists have declared a total of 2,403 rifles to the UN.
Official Statistics (Declared by the Security Forces): During the course of the insurgency, the Security Forces lost 11, 5.56mm Light Support Weapons (LSW); 2, 203 Grenade Launcher rifles; 29, 5.56mm M-16 rifles; 2, 5.56mm Colt Commando rifles; 5, 7.62mm Galil assault rifles; 1, G-36 rifle; 3, sniper rifles; 512, 7.62mm Self-Loading Rifles (SLR); 234, 5.56mm INSAS rifles; 1,748, .303 Lee Enfield rifles. This accounts for a total of 2,547 rifles.
Analysis: The discrepancy between the officially declared and stolen rifles is 144. Maoists posing for the media have also revealed numerous Chinese T-56, Type-II assault rifles, AK-47 assault rifles and 7.62mm Indian MAG rifles. None of these classes of weapons are accounted for the in official number of rifles as declared by the Security Forces.
Results: The Maoists receive a “distinguished” failing grade in this category.
E. Handguns
Inventoried by the UN (Declared by the Maoists): The Maoists have declared a total of 114 pistols as side arms, to the UN.
Official Statistics (Declared by the Security Forces): During the course of the insurgency, the Security Forces lost 31, 9mm pistols (of various makes); 16 revolvers; 1 P7 M13 pistol; 118 pistols of various makes. This accounts for a total of 166 side arms.
Analysis: The discrepancy between the officially declared and stolen side arms is 52. This discrepancy does not account for an estimated 1,000 Chinese pistols that have been purchased by the Maoists.
Results: The Maoists receive another “distinguished” failing grade in this category.
F. Shotguns
Inventoried by the UN (Declared by the Maoists): The Maoists have declared a total of 212 shotguns, to the UN.
Official Statistics (Declared by the Security Forces): During the course of the insurgency, the Security Forces lost a total of 258 shotguns.
Analysis: The discrepancy between the officially declared and stolen shotguns is 46. This discrepancy does not account for an unknown quantify of privately owned 12-gague shot guns that were confiscated by the Maoists during the insurgency.
Results: The Maoists receive another failing grade in this category.
G. “Other” Weapons
Inventoried by the UN (Declared by the Maoists): The Maoists have declared a total of 253 “other” weapons to the UN.
Official Statistics (Declared by the Security Forces): During the course of the insurgency, the Security Forces lost a total of 183, .22 rifles (acquired during IGP Kharel’s leadership to combat the Maoists and used extensively in operations Romeo and Sierra-II-Kilo) and 42 Hornet rifles. This accounts for a total of 225 “other” weapons.
Analysis: The discrepancy between the officially declared and stolen “other” weapons is 28 additional weapons declared by the Maoists. This discrepancy does not account for an unknown quantify of privately owned hunting rifles that were confiscated by the Maoists during the insurgency. Additionally, approximately 233 home-made weapons (included in the Maoist count) are not included in the officially declared number of stolen weapons.
Results: The Maoists receive a passing grade in this category if the declared numbers are tallied against the numbers stolen from the state. If home-made weapons and weapons stolen from private residences are taken into account, the passing grade is easily reversed to a failing grade.
Summary:
- Excluding mortars and rocket launchers, a total of 3,395 (3,425 declared by the State minus 30 mortars/rocket launchers) weapons were lost to the Maoists.
- The weapons declared by the Maoists (including mortars, rocket launchers, home-made mortars, assorted rifles, and 233 home-made guns) totals to 3,428.
- In order to conduct a comparable analysis, mortars, rocket launchers, home-made mortars, assorted rifles and home-made guns need to be subtracted from the declared count of 3,428 weapons. The adjustment to conduct a comparable analysis is as follows: 3,428 – 278 = 3,150 weapons.
- This yields a discrepancy between what the state had documented as stolen and what the Maoists have declared as follows: 3,395 – 3,150 = 245.
- It is vital to note that the 245 calculated above accounts only for differences between what the State lost and a comparable number of weapons declared by the Maoists. The actual number of weapons still in Maoist possession is most certainly higher.
- For example, approximately 125, T-56 Type-II Chinese assault rifles have been procured by the Maoists (AK-47 ). Of the declared 3,428 rifles, the Maoists are using approximately 524 for camp protection (28 camps ) and 49 for the protection of their leaders.
- The total counts between what the State Forces declared and what the Maoists ultimately produced is uncharacteristically similar. It is possible that information provided by the State to the UNMIN was leaked to the Maoists in advance.
- The lack of full transparency on the different classes of weapons declared by the Maoists vs. those declared by the State is a serious deficiency in the public information disclosed to date. UNMIN should immediately release full and transparent information for public consumption.
Past postings related to this topic:
2 comments:
Have you considered this explanation?
Security forces are liars, UN and Ian Martin are great and the Moists are “in it” with utmost honesty and good intentions.
I haven’t either, but there will be no dearth of opinions along these lines. This kind of double standards will not take us very far.
Love Nepal
Nepali Blogger - you raise a good point.
It is the same argument that people like Kanak Dixit, Devendra Pandey, Manjushree Thapa and the rest of the civil society was making at the time of the 12-point agreement.
All I have to say is this... you don't hear much of that "oh the Maoists have changed so much and they have become democratic" argument these days.
The writers on this blog have argued consistently since they have been writing that this "change" is total bull shit (visit the archives on this site).
The UN's hands are tied and they are playing dirty too. The information that has been published on this site - the actual catogry of arms provided by the Security Forces to the Government - this is supposed to be public information.
Why in the world did the UN not publish the information they were provided by the government in the same detail tha they published the Maoist weapons?
Had the UN done this, the debate would be on the correct track - there would be no debate on whether the Maoists have declared the right quantity, but rather, the right types of arms.
Instead, because of the way the information was publicized, the debate is unnecessarily focusing on the total numbers of weapons and combatants.
If the Nepali people were told the numebrs of weapons and types so they could compare to what was declared, the bull shit would come to a grinding halt.
Look out on this site for more on this topic....
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