Nepali Perspectives....

Is this Politics or Raping of the Country?

2009-11-10T23:19:00.001+05:45

(Courtesy: Kalyan Dev Bhattarai)

General People supported the 1990 movement not because they trusted any of the so- called leaders of the political parries existing during the period but were tired of the King's brutalism, the nepotism and hypocrisy, due to which the people came to street which looked like the support to the then leaders.

The people participated in the said movement and many sacrificed their life and many had shed their blood with the hope that the so-called leaders, after the punishment from the King in the name of panchyati system, might have understood the basic fundamentals of democracy and the ethics of the democracy and will do their best for the people and country by following the democratic norms and principle of democracy.

However, it was a false assumption of the people who supported them hoping for the best and expected the required changes in the existing political culture with rapid economic development of the country. But the politicians of the country not only betrayed the people but also proved that the street dogs would have been better than the present day ministers to rule the country. By ten years, after 1990, of their looting of the country's treasury in the mane of ruling, every body knew that the so-called leaders of the different political parties were camouflaged dacoits, whose only one objective was to loot the country and fool the people. This was proved beyond any doubt during their ruling of the period 1991 to 2006. The activities of the political leaders during this period also proved that Nepal is the only country where the politicians with few exception are interested for their individual and partisan interests only and their main works being; to loot the country in various pretexts, deceive their cadres, fool the citizen and speak lies and talk nonsense most of the time and never do any things good for the nation and people. This, I consider nothing but the raping of the country.

In the mean time, due to none democratic behavior and almost autocratic ruling of Nepali Congress (NC), which is fully responsible for the present bogus condition of the nation, the Maoist, who had even participated in the then election, started the insurgency and the 10 years of their insurgency period was the violent era in the history of the country. This violent era still needs a valid and non-biased evaluation to conclude whether such revolution was required or not.

Due to the rampant corruption in the country, useless and senseless politicians who were always busy in fighting with each other for power and never gave any importance to the country's requirements and development, the people of the country totally rejected them and started to hate them. For the monarchy this was golden opportunity, so the king took that opportunity and took power for the second time. This self-rule was supported by a large section of the people, not because they liked the king ruling but because they were tired of the corruption and constant power struggle fight of the then existing political parties.

The political parties started the demonstration against the kings rule and the so-called demonstration turned out to be laughing matter, as there was no support from the people and the leaders looked like clowns in a drama on a stage as they made their demonstration sitting in the Ratna park from 10 am to 5 pm like the office going bureaucrats. Once the leaders noticed they have no public support and having no other alternative than to bowed down to Maoist and accept the election of the Constitution assembly and a republic, which were the two main political demands of the Maoist. The demands which were opposed by the same politicians until they were kicked out of power by the then king Gyanendra and which were also completely rejected by the people. For their survival they had no choice than to accept the political demands of the Maoist and follow and support the struggle of Maoist and so they signed the peace accord in the India's capital, New Delhi.

In this context, any intellectual should ask the so-called leaders why they opposed the basic and appropriate demands of Maoist for 10 long years and forced the Maoist to take arms and country was put in to such a big trouble. In my opinion, the then leaders who ruled the country from 1991 and opposed the Maoist demands must explain to the people of Nepal, why they opposed the Maoist demands and accepted it only after being kick out by the king. In my opinion they are responsible for the killings of more than 16,000 innocent people during the Maoist insurgency. A powerful legal enquiry should take place and if they are found guilty, necessary legal actions should be taken against the jokers, who call themselves so-called political leaders.

The king’s action, as well as the people’s rejection left no other alternatives to the political parties but to support the Maoist. So, in the name of joint struggle, they had virtually followed the Maoist and sold all their ideology and political principles and made 190 degree turn in their political ideology, just for the power. In this whole universe we will not find any political organization, which will take such a sharp change in their ideology just for power and still not explain to the people why they changed their ideology in such a way. This only proves that these political parties are without any political ideology and will do any thing to be in power, so that they could loot the country' treasury and consider the people as their puppets. In my opinion, such volte- face behavior is nothing but raping the country politically.

After this, it was natural that due to Maoist participation, the then king was forced to accept the demands of the Maoist and forced to handover all the power to the political parties. After this what happened in the country was nothing but the acts of the Jokers fooling the people and looting the country and the fight for the power and stupidities. This was not only mockery of democracy but also total absence of the basic norms of the democracy in the political parties.
The Constitutional assembly election was undertaken by spending billions of rupees, which were just to fool the people and to be in power again and loot the nation, the political parties totally ignored the people's requirements and gave importance to the partisan's interests only and started to show all types of shameful activities in the name ruling the country but actually to fulfill their patrician and individual interests only.

Political parties and few of their puppets in the name of the Constitutional assembly (CA) election conducted such an election that cannot be considered the CA from any point of view. As far as my understanding goes, the CA is to write the Constitution for the country by its people for the people. But the political leaders were so selfish and power hungry, that they organized the CA in such a way that there are hardly few people's representative in the present so-called CA Assembly. More than half of its members are just the party representatives who were just selected by its leaders not based in their capacity, ability, and dedication to democracy or ideological commitment or qualification but on their loyalty to its main leaders. Other members are elected not on the basis of majority support from the people but based in outdated and completely unsuitable method of election known as first-past-the-post, due to which, baring few people like Babu Ram Bhattarai none have support of the majority of the people. I do not understand how such fellows who are rejected by the majority of the voters and are supported by hardly 20% voters only can represent the concerned constituency and can claim as the people's representatives in the CA. This is nothing but the intellectual bankruptcy. Could anyone explain how these party representatives can be called the people’s representative?

Finally, the election result showed the Maoists having the plurality of seats in the CA, but the then ruling NC took a long time to handover the power to the winner of the election they have held. This shows the total lack of democratic norms and when they were forced to hand over the power to Maoist, all types of machination was started and all parties, except the Maoist, insisted the first president of the country to be selected against the democratic norms, Constitution and ethics of democracy creating a power struggle between the elected PM and selected President (selected because he was co-opted by the party members only) without involvement of people of the country.

The act of the selected president in countermanding the order of the Maoist PM was not only undemocratic but also against the basic norms and principle of the democracy and a challenge to the people’s power. So this requires impeachment of the president, if we want to maintain democratic culture and preserve our hard earned democracy This autocratic act of the president undertaken on the written request of all political parties, against the Maoist clearly suggest that all political parties of our country are corrupt and do every things possible to garb power and are in politics just to loot the country’s treasury and that they even do not know what democracy is and who are the real people’s representatives. In this context, it must be consider a very wise, sincere and democratic step of Prachanda by resigning from the post of PM.

After this, what is happening in the country is neither ethical nor should have allowed to happen but simply because the CA was formed in a wrong way, this all was inevitable, as we cannot except to grow orange by planting the seed of the potato.

By allowing the same groups who rule the country also to write the Constitution, we are facilitating bad governance. If we except to get the good and ethical things in the country then it is our mistake in doing so, not the mistakes of the rulers as they are in politics just to loot the country. Imagine what will happen when you allow the group of thieves to make a law for the punishment to the thieves. What sort of laws can one expect to be made in such a situation? Similarly, what can we expect of the Constitution made by the corrupt members in the CA.

For months the CA is not functioning but the party representatives are getting their allowances and perks whether any work is done or not, if the CA was undertaken to elect people’s representatives rather than to select the party representatives, all the present troubles would have never come. It is intellectual bankruptcy to expect the present day politicians will write people’s Constitution for the people and to develop the country. Rather the Constitution if even written by present so-called members of CA will be for the political parties by the party representatives for looting the country's treasury and to fool the citizen of the Nepal. Do you not think it is just like raping the country to conduct the CA election in such a way where only the party members can be selected or elected and not a single representative of the people is elected? The political parties not only fooled the people saying the CA is for the people by the people and from the people but also by political machination did their best to be in power. Can any of the present day leaders logically explain that there is no difference between the party representative and people's representative? The two types of representatives carry lot of different responsibility and convey entirely different notion? I will not be surprised if the present so-called members of CA make such a Constitution which say that all party representatives are also people representative and should get the allowances and other perks and similarly whether they loose or win, get 2 % vote or more than 50% vote can be consider as confide member of assembly and should get all the allowances and perks of the assembly, all ex-PMs should get a house with all facilities made from the country's treasury (as was done for K P Bhattarai), all parties should get money from the treasury for running the parties and huge amount as an election fund and no corruption charges can be made against all politicians and they can loot few trucks of money from the Rastra Bank every year, and will get free ride to any kind of government owned transportation and can rape any women of the country etc. In my opinion, the Constitution if made by the present party representatives will be no better than that.

Neither do I consider any such fellow who has not received more than 50% of the votes, as people's representative nor do I consider it will be democratic to accept the present day election procedures. If we want to save our hard earned democracy there must be clear distinction between the people representatives and party representatives and in my personal opinion, to accept any party representatives as people representatives without getting more than 50% of vote is nothing but intellectual bankruptcy and from democratic point of view, such is raping the country.

I feel a sense of shame to name the present PM, the fellow who had been rejected by the people from not only one constituency but from two constituencies to have been co-opted by the party leaders and made a members of CA on the basis of bargaining. And how stupid this is for the intellectual groups of the country to accept him as PM of the country. From the point of view of democracy, to select such person, as PM of the country just for the party interest is nothing but day light raping of the country. If you can drag any body in the CA and can select such person who has lost election in two constituencies, just by bargaining among the political parties, what the hell you can expect from such crooks to be done in the interest of the country? So why waste billions of Rs from country’s treasury in the name of election when the election has no meaning and even the looser can be PM of the country. Is not all such activities daylight raping of the country? Who will save my lovely country from the hands of such crooks and how this will be done and when this will happen other than by the people themselves.

The Relevance of Electric Transportation in Nepal

2009-09-09T18:35:00.002+05:45

(Courtesy: Bijay Man Sherchan)

Although Nepal is known to be rich in hydropower potential, the country has adopted policies whereby transportation is almost totally based on imported petroleum based fossil fuels. The nation is paying heavily in foreign currency for import of the petroleum products with an average 100,000 kilo liter monthly demand of petroleum products in the country. And this consumption is increasing every year. As per statistics of NOC the amounts spent on import of petroleum products in 2007 and 2008 were Rs. 33.1 billion and Rs. 37.77 billion respectively.

The use of petroleum as the fuel for transport is not only a heavy burden on the national exchequer but its use results in many harmful effects. The transport sector is the primary reason for atmospheric pollution as petroleum fumes cause harmful emissions such as CO2 and suspended particulate matters that are detrimental to health. The use of petroleum based transportation results in increased economic costs : billions of Rupees spent on the import of petroleum fuels, decreasing air quality resulting in increasing health related cost, decreased productivity for the economically active population and rising inflation due to rise of international oil prices.

Given the above scenario it is high time to debate on the relevance of clean electrical based transport in Nepal. In this context, a brief look into the development of electricity based transportation is relevant.

The Historical Overview

The first effort in using electricity based transport in Nepal was in 1960 when USAID assisted in implementation of a 43 km long bi-cable goods ropeway between Hetauda and Kathmandu. This ropeway with capacity of 22.5 ton per hour performed well during the initial years when the Tribhuwan Rajpath was the only road link between Kathmandu and the Terai. With development of other better roads from the plains to Kathmandu the relevance of ropeway transport diminished and as the system was under the management of a poorly-managed government owned corporation (Nepal Transportation Corporation) the system soon became defunct.

The second important event in the development of electricity based transportation was the implementation of the trolley bus system between Kathmandu and Suryavinayak in Bhaktapur. The construction of the 13 kilometer long trolley bus system was undertaken under a grant aid of the Chinese Government and was completed in 2 years (1975 – 1977) with an investment of Rs. 40 million. The trolley bus system with 15 stations was a very popular means of transport and ferried between 10,000 – 11,000 commuters daily initially and the volume increased to 20,000 per day. Initially 22 trolley buses were in operation and in 1997 10 more buses with bigger passenger carrying capacity were added to the fleet. The system operated 16 hours a day and had a very low passenger fare of Rs. 3 - 4 depending on the travel distance. The hey days of the trolley bus system started to decline with the advent of democracy in the country. The culture of "Bandhs" and "Chakka Jam" and "tod fod" seriously effected the operation of the trolley buses. The politically affiliated ministers started using the trolley bus unit as an employment centre for their political cadre. The system of subcontracting of passenger fare collection to the drivers (Rs. 425 per trip for smaller and Rs. 475 for the bigger buses) resulted in a situation where the drivers became rich and NTC poorer by the day. The over staffing and low productivity led to a fast deterioration in the financial viability of the enterprise. Lack of funds led to deterioration of maintenance, depletion of spare parts stocks and finally scavenging of the buses whereby parts of the operating buses were removed for use as spare parts. The system soon collapsed and in December 2001, HMG by a cabinet decision, decided to close down the trolley bus system after 27 years of eventful operation. Subsequent efforts of the Government to restart the trolley bus system under the management of the Municipality of Kathmandu, Thimi and Bhaktapur failed as there was lack of commitment to the cause and lack of effective management.

The year 1993 will be remembered in history of development of electricity based transportation as one of the important landmarks. Under USAID funding an American INGO called Global Resources Institute was mandated with the task of developing a proto-type 3 wheeler run by batteries. This proto-type was christened as the Safa Tempo. After six months of trial operation the 7 Safa Tempos were handed over to Nepal Electric Vehicle Industry (NEVI) a company formed by 28 Nepali professionals dedicated to the cause of environmental protection in Nepal. NEVI operated the demonstration fleet and together with a few other EV manufacturing companies started assembly of the Safa Tempos for commercial operation on various routes within Kathmandu.

A decade and half later Kathmandu has a fleet of 650 Safa Tempos running on 14 various routes and cater to 130,000 commuters daily. 31 charging stations cater to the battery charging requirements of the Safa Tempos. While USAID quick started the development of the 3 wheeler Safa Tempo, it was DANIDA which further supported the development of the EV industry by creating a Clean Vehicle Fund to support research, development and promotion of the EV's. Under this program DANIDA funds were made available for training of drivers and technicians for the EV industry, for operating 4 battery charging stations in Lalitpur and for procurement of 48 EV's by the private sector. Almost half of the drivers of the Safa Tempos are female drivers trained under the Danish program.

While the unusual strides made in Nepal in the EV industry may be a matter of appreciation within the world community the number of Safa Tempo has not risen beyond 650 due to many reasons. The difficulty for acquiring route permits by Safa Tempo and domination of existing route by the diesel mini/microbus syndicates have made the increment of EV's virtually impossible.

The Way Ahead

The good work done in the initial development in the EV sector should continue and GoN should adopt short-term and long-term measures in expanding the horizon of electricity based transport for the overall benefit of the nation and its people.

The short-term measures that the government could adopt are the following:

a. Devise policies whereby clean transport based on electricity is given top priority and protected by providing incentive in excise duty and customs exemptions and reduced electricity tariff for night time charging of electric vehicles;
b. Adopt policies whereby the approximately 700 polluting LPG operated vehicles plying in Kathmandu are converted into battery run electric vehicles;
c. Adopt policies whereby vehicles over 15 years are given due incentives for converting into electric vehicles;
d. Create zones in tourist destinations such as Chitwan, Lumbini and Pokhara and historically important places such as Kathmandu Durbar Square, Patan Durbar Square, Bhaktapur Durbar Square are accessible only to electric vehicles;
e. Allot priority to electric vehicles while issuing route permits for passenger vehicles

The above steps would yield results beneficial to all. In a study conducted by Clean Air Network Nepal it has been found that if 1,000 old gasoline vehicles were to be converted into electric vehicles, NEA would receive Rs. 25 million as additional income from sale of its night time spilled energy, a national saving of Rs. 219 million would result due to saving in import of petroleum fuels and the individual operator would benefit by Rs. 137,000 annually as savings in vehicle operation cost.

The long-term measures that the government should adopt are as follows:

a. Revive and operate trolley buses for transportation to the maximum extent possible. The defunct Kathmandu – Bhaktapur trolley bus should be reinstated once the widening of the Arniko Highway is completed. Extend trolley bus operation along the Kathmandu Ringroad, along the Bishnumati Corridor and operate radial trolley bus routes to Godavari, Kirtipur, Kalanki and Budanilkantha. Implement trolley buses in the Terai along feasible sectors such as Jogbani – Dharan, Birgunj – Pathlaiya, Sunauli – Butwal and Nepalgunj – Kohalpur;
b. Implement electric train services as mass transport system on feasible routes such as East West Highway, Fast Track Road Corridor, Kathmandu – Pokhara and Kathmandu – Khasa corridors;
c. Implement ropeway transport in hill areas which do not have road access;
d. Encourage the private sector by providing correct incentives for implementation of cable cars;
e. Support the creation of a research and development institute to promote the EV industry.

Given the proper priority, incentives and attention from all relevant quarters, Nepal could once again regain its Shangri-La status – this time as the Shangri-La of EV's.

(Mr. B.M. Sherchan is the immediate past Chairman of Electric Vehicle Association of Nepal)

Nepal’s Road to Chaos – Struggle for Sovereignty

2009-09-01T19:06:00.004+05:45

(Courtesy: Pritam Rana)

Nepal, a multitude of petty principalities in the Himalayas, was built up into a single monolithic state by King Prithvi Narayan Shah in the 18th century . Once unified, Nepal managed to retain its sovereignty despite the presence of expansionist East India Company in the Indian plains. In the north Tibet and China were ancient polities. Nepal’s expansion following King Prithvi Narayan Shah’s death brought it into confrontation with East India Company. In the Anglo-Nepal war (1814-1816), Nepal was defeated. Earlier in 1792, in a confrontation with Tibet, Nepal was able to stop invading Chinese forces in 1792.

The rise of the Ranas after 1849 saw Nepal as a firm ally of the British interests in the subcontinent. Jung Bahadur’s support to the British facing Sepoy Mutiny of 1857 brought back Butwal plains to Nepal. Following Bhimsen Thapa’s hardline anti-Company policy would have been disastrous. Nepal’s support of Indian mutineers would have resulted into British punitive expedition against Kathmandu and subsequent occupation of Nepal. Nepal would have thus lost its sovereignty as one of the princely Indian states. The Ranas also managed to persuade Britain to recognize Nepal’s sovereignty in 1923 and Nepal was able to maintain diplomatic ties with Britain in the form of an ambassador to London. The British maintained a resident in Nepal since 1816 Sugauli Treaty.

As Mao’s communists defeated and drove Kuomintang to Formosa in 1948, a new threat emerged toward Nepal’s northern frontier. Communist China marched into Tibet in 1950 to consolidate its claim altering Nepal’s strategic scenario. At the same time, anti-Rana politicians influenced by Indian Congress sought to establish democracy and socialism, a system foreign to Nepal. Used to authoritarian centralized rule, these ideas were bound to invite radical change and threat to Nepal’s existence as an independent country.

Before India and China clashed in 1962, Nepal gave up its experimentation with democracy and established a semi-democratic polity with considerable power in the hands of King Mahendra. In the heights of the Cold War, King Mahendra chose neutral foreign policy and adherence to non-aligned movement primarily to keep Nepal away from being entangled in Sino-Indian schism. Nepal thus was isolated from Western countries, its principal friends. Foreign investement into exploiting water resources was thus not forthcoming from the rich Western countries while the masses remained poor, mainly into subsistence farming, employment into British and Indian armies and as laborers in India.

After 1990, political change was idiosyncratic. While communism failed in Eastern Europe, Nepal saw a resurgence in appeal to communist parties. Populist slogans appealed to poorer, uneducated classes and from 1996, a radical wing of Nepal’s communists, the Maoists began armed revolution in the rural areas. Political violence unleashed in Nepal cost 15,000 lives and it propelled Nepal’s Maoists into the major political party. Its radical and revolutionary ideals has brought into conflict with the old order. This movement has managed to eliminate Nepal’s royal family from power. Its current aim is to integrate its armed cadre into Nepal’s army and take control of this oldest institution of Nepal. Absolute control is the supposed goal to transform Nepal into a one party communist state.

Nepal’s democracy has been skillfully infiltrated and brutally exploited by communists. Popular King Birendra should never have yielded to demands to liberalize the political system in 1990. Without a firm mechanism to check the growth of illiberal and extremist organizations, Maoists emerged and catapulted themselves to power employing unchecked political violence. King Birendra lost his life and his family in mysterious circumstances in 2001, which harks back to times of Nepal’s bloody past coups of the 19th century. King Birendra’s brother, King Gyanendra, failed to restore order in 2006 when the drive to republic gained momentum resulting in loss of monarchy, an institution with greatest contribution to Nepal’s unification and consolidation. Loss of the King as head of the state has resulted in a leadership vacuum.

March toward federalism could end up with disintegration of the state along ethnic lines aka Bosnia Herzegovina leaving room for future discord and armed conflict. The notion of federal states within a small territory as Nepal sounds impractical. The idea of these federal states negotiating with India to export power sounds farcical. Nepal’s move toward unfamiliar terrain could well take it to a point of no return.

The neo-elite of Nepal, primarily Brahmins, does not have a lasting legacy of statesmanship. Demolishing institutions in the name of restructuring is eliminating Nepal’s identity.
In the multipolar world, Nepal may well fall into the trap of emerging powers and their national interests. China’s emergence into a world power may influence pro-China elements in Nepal into suppressing Tibetan refugees and their deportation to uncertain fate in Chinese prison camps.

Communists and Maoists are already into anti-Western line. Nepal’s water resources need massive capital injection for development if it were to sustain projects capable of meeting Nepal’s rising energy demand. The hope of creating projects to export energy will always require technical expertise from the West. Nepal’s good relations with US and EU, including its traditional special ties with UK, cannot be surrendered to suit the short term foreign policy interests of its immediate neighbors. Nepal should cooperate in regional groupings like SAARC and BIMSTEC and exploit Nepal’s unique status as a center for sustainable tourism.

Radicalization of the youth by extremist political organizations and elimination of traditional institutions will erase Nepal’s appeal as a center of its unique culture. Heated political controversies with propensity for armed conflict has already earned Nepal’s image as a failed state among Nepal’s friends and donors. Further deterioration of law and order may invite intervention by India. Nepal may lose its sovereignty the same way Tibet lost it to China and Sikkim to India. The Himalayan Kingdoms were lost to expansionist designs of neighboring powers with deteriorating conditions expediting the loss of sovereignty. Therefore it is imperative that Nepal maintain partnership with NATO to maintain its territorial integrity. Nepal could well learn more from participation in NATO operations. Also, revenue in the form of pay and security assistance would be welcome.

Under no circumstances should Nepal join Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) despite shortsighted arguments like it would ensure energy supply. Russia and China who are key members of this alliance are keen to develop an anti-Western front through this new Warsaw pact. The SCO member states are mostly totalitarian dictatorships bent on suppressing political freedom and human rights. Nepal’s membership into SCO would ensure the rule of anti-democratic forces like Maoists who would be more than happy to suppress individual rights and establish authoritarian political order.

Mirage of Illusionary Benefit of Rs 45 Billion from Pancheshwar Project

2009-08-18T18:29:00.001+05:45

(Courtesy: Ratna Sansar Shrestha)

Having had some misgiving about the fancy amounts by which Nepal is supposed to be benefited by implementing Pancheshwar Project, I have conducted an analysis of these amounts and I am both amazed and stupefied that people dare to churn/dish out such numbers and there are people, too who believe in such illusionary numbers. Nepal is, reportedly, to be benefited to the tune of Rs 45 billion 870 million from electricity by building it in conjunction with Purnagiri. Similarly, if the re-regulating dam is built at Rupaligarh, instead, then the benefit is supposed to be Rs 34 billion 500 million. Moreover, Nepal’s benefit from carbon trading is supposed to be Rs 4 billion 420 million. Furthermore, the benefits from fishery and irrigation are supposed to amount to Rs 16 billion and Rs 5.69 billion respectively.

Justifying his intention to take up matters related to this in his imminent trip to India, Prime Minister Nepal, too, has parroted the amount of Rs 45 billion over and over and so has the energy minister. These numbers have been repeated so many times by the media ad nauseaum that people, unfortunately, seemingly have started to believe. Even a person like Dr Ram Sharan Mahat is reported to have opined that it will be unfortunate if the project does not get built, citing the same numbers. Therefore, I am trying to find out who is responsible for these bunkum numbers. You want to know why? Simply because, in my considered opinion, that person is either thoroughly incompetent or s/he has done so with some malafide intention, eventually designed to have Nepal and people of Nepal taken for a ride, which is not a new phenomenon (there are precedents set by Koshi through Tanakpur Treaties and agreements for West Seti through Arun III projects).

Revenue from Royalties
People are already talking as if Nepal will be benefited by monies in these amounts by simply having the project built. The only money Nepal stands to receive as such after getting the project built is from royalties; capacity royalty at the rate of Rs 100 per kW and energy royalty of 2% under current Nepal law. From Nepal’s 50% share of Pancheshwar and Rupaligarh (capacity 3,360 MW, generating 6,161 GWh), Nepal will become entitled to the total royalty of Rs 793.5 million (not even one billion and very far from reported Rs 34.5 billion!) if the energy is sold at US 4.95 ¢/kWh - the rate at which West Seti is set to export energy to India.

If the re-regulating dam is built at Purnagiri, Nepal’s 50% share will be 3,740 MW generating 8,192 GWh and the total royalty from this project will amount to Rs 982 million only (tantalizingly close to a billion!); not Rs 45 billion, though. The person coming up with these bunkum number (fantastic ones at that!) has used Rs 5.60/kWh as the sale price of electricity which is higher by 50% compared to the rate I have used. However, I have a justification for doing so. As the cost of generation is, reportedly, Rs 2.62, the bulk rate for domestic consumption should not include a mark up of more than 40%. Similarly, if the electricity is to be exported, there is no possibility of India agreeing to pay more than west seti rate.

To conclude, these amounts (Rs 45.87 billion or Rs 34.5 billion) is high by a magnitude and our PM and energy minister and their ilk are getting excited for no reason simply because a misguided person (or an incompetent one) has come up with these illusionary numbers. I request your active help in rectifying the wrong impression caused as such, if at all possible.

Return on Investment
It is also possible that the reference to these numbers could have been made from the perspective of return on investment. I have analyzed this aspect too. I have come to learn that it will cost $ 2,980 million for Pancheshwar and Rupaligarh combination. In that case Nepal will have to invest $ 372 million in equity and raise a debt of $ 1,117.5 million to mobilize her share of the initial investment amounting to $ 1,490 million. At the reported rate of return on investment of 25% Nepal will earn Rs 6.98 billion only. It needs to be remembered that to earn such return one doesn’t need to sign unequal treaty like Mahakali Treaty and also invest. Businessmen in Nepal are known to earn return on investment at rates higher than this in certain ventures. Besides, Norwegians and Americans (who have since divested) have invested in hydropower in Nepal are earning at rates higher than this. Nepali investors have invested both in Nepal and India to earn similar returns. Therefore, if the hype being created was in the form of return on investment then it is completely misplaced on two counts. One, the numbers thrown around are high by a magnitude and getting a return on investment at such rates is normal and natural phenomenon; there is no need for banner headline and surrender other vital interests of Nepal (I will refer to one of these below).

Moreover, you will recall that Nepal is about to borrow $ 45 million from ADB to invest in west seti project and, from it one can easily infer that Nepal will not be able to spare $ 372 million (equivalent to Rs 28 billion) to invest in equity of this project. If Nepal has to borrow to invest in equity (besides having to borrow the debt part of $ 1,117.5 million) as such then instead of earning a return Nepal will become entangled in a debt trap. I don’t even feel like analyzing its impact.

Benefit from Carbon Revenue
As mentioned above, it was also reported that Nepal could earn Rs 4.24 billion from carbon revenue. I have two comments with regard to this, too. One, if the electricity is used in Nepal, there won’t be any carbon offset, thus precluding the prospect of revenue from carbon trading. Conversely, carbon trading could become a reality if Nepal’s share is exported, thus depriving people of far western development region from the much needed electricity. Even on this tangent the potential for Nepal receiving such an amount is very remote as the carbon offset takes place in India and, unlike some people in Nepal, Indians would never be willing to surrender something that they are entitled to. They would have been forced to cede the right to this source of revenue if something was stipulated in the Mahakali Treaty in this respect. But, unfortunately, the treaty is silent with regard to India having to sacrifice such revenue stream in favor of Nepal. Had clear stipulation been made about it in the Treaty then India would have been forced to divert it to Nepal. So the talk about Nepal benefiting from carbon revenue too is misleading. From the way things are going on now, I am starting to believe that all these rumor mongering were designed to make fools out of politicos, bureaucrats and people of Nepal.

Irrigation Benefit
I am certain that the reported irrigation benefit of Rs 5.69 too is dubious. However, I don’t wish to my invest time in analyzing this number as this benefit, if it were to occur, Nepal is entitled to every paisa of it. But I would like to draw your attention to what Nepal stands to lose.

At the time of signing this treaty people were assured of 50% water from this river, deemed to be a boundary river against the spirit of Sugauli Treaty of 1816. Even the Sankalpa Prastav passed by the joint session of the parliament reiterated that Nepal is entitled to 50% water. However, unfortunately, after implementation of this project only 93,000 hectare of land will be irrigated in Nepal and 1.6 million hectares in India; a clear case of breach of the principle of 50%. It has come to my knowledge that Nepal will have to sacrifice 86.5 km2 of its land to build the reservoir; amounting to 43% (57% submergence is supposed to happen in India). From this perspective, Nepal is entitled to irrigation of 43% land not just 5.49%. In view of this India needs recompense for 37.54% irrigation facility that India uses in addition to the share she is entitled to. If it is to be monetized at the rate South Africa is paying Lesotho, Nepal deserves Rs 15.17 billion per annum. However, to my dismay, nobody is talking about this issue and looks like the corrupt politicos and bureaucrats of Nepal are happy to surrender this right while chasing the mirage of Rs 45 billion.

Anti-development
Misguided people who fail to comprehend these important issues brand people like yours truly anti development. People like me are simply trying to ensure that Nepal is not short changed out of what she is legitimately entitled to. I am sure that the readers too wish the same for our motherland.

Sharing Water Resources

2009-08-17T07:41:00.002+05:45

(Courtesy: Ratna Sansar Shrestha)

Water resources will be the next contentious issue in a federal Nepal

Nepal’s forests are no longer a natural resource to be tapped for development, water is.

Only 12 per cent of Nepal’s 4 million hectares of arable land is irrigated, that too mostly during the rainy season. Most of the rivers are snow-fed, so if we construct reservoir and canal network, we can irrigate land in the hills and Tarai all year round. Farms can have three, even four harvests, a year. There is no need for Nepal to be food-deficit.

Water resource has multi-dimensional utilization (irrigation, drinking, transportation, and tourism, industrial) and, therefore, it shouldn’t just be understood as a source of energy. We can earn more from rafting based tourism than generating hydroelectricity from the Bhote Kosi, for instance. Kosi, Gandaki, Karnali including Bagmati can be used as waterways, the cheapest means of transport.

Nepali leaders often talk about the country’s hydropower potential, and dream of exporting it to India. Even if hydro-electricity is generated, its most productive use would be domestic, to power industries and generate employment locally. By exporting raw power to India, we can earn some cash in the form of royalties of under 3 percent which will not help domestic economic growth.

In a federal system, there is a bigger chance that federal units will independently negotiate to export power to India. Electricity rich provinces can sell power to those who pay the most. Most of the Nepal’s hydro-energy sites are in the mid-west, which generate over 300 MW but only half of it is consumed in the region.

At present, the central development region generates over 250 MW, of which almost all power is consumed here. But the eastern region generates only 14 MW but this is the region which consumes the highest amount of power. The mid west will export to the eastern region only if it is ready to pay the amount it demands or else it will export to India for better price.

Melamchi is in future Tamsaling province. If the Newa province wants to bring Melamchi water, it should be ready to pay the price Tamsling demands. Kathmanduites who are paying Rs 50 per month for water, will have to pay a lot more as the price of water. If Newa fails to pay the price, Tamsaling is free to sell it to whichever province pays the price.

Nepal Mandala has no potential for hydro electricity. If it is
declared a separate province, either people will have to live in the
dark or import the power at a high price.

For energy and regulated water, we need to build reservoirs on our rivers, which will inundate land in the fertile valleys. The upper riparian province will therefore be deprived of using the water, and the lower riparian will benefit. A federal Nepal will face the same issues we now currently face vis-à-vis India about river basin development. How will it be possible to irrigate Jhapa without submerging valleys in the Limbuwan province?

When two provinces compete, a third province can benefit, and these disputes can weaken the nation. Decision on water resources should therefore not be devolved to the provincial units but be the prerogative of the centre, like foreign policy and defense.

But the proposed ethnic-based provinces will not accept this idea. Nepal has already signed the ILO Convention 169, which allows control of the indigenous communities over the natural resources. In other words, this convention goes against the argument that there should be central jurisdiction over water resources.

The bottom line is that a federal system will not be conducive to Nepal’s national interest with regards to sharing benefits from water resources, and it will affect our development process.

This opinion piece is a translated adaptation of the original printed in NAGARIK on AUGUST 9, 2009 and published in Nepali Times of 14-20 August 2009 (#464)

READING THE CODE: Maoist Plans for the Revolution

2009-08-08T20:04:00.008+05:45

(Courtesy: Dr. Thomas A. Marks)

A political risk consultant in Honolulu, Hawaii, Dr. Marks recently authored the entry, “Maoism in South and Southeast Asia,” in the Oxford Encyclopedia of the Modern World (1750-Present); Peter M. Stearns, ed. (New York: Oxford University Press, March 2008).

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Since their loss of the government in May of this year, the Maoists have threatened almost daily to launch another round of street violence if their demands are not met. They now have made good on those threats, building upon their continued use of terrorism beneath the surface to launch an open round of struggle designed to bring down the government. Put in the words of Prachanda (as per Republica): “The Maoist CC meeting decided to hit the streets for the sake of ‘civilian supremacy’ a Maoist-led national unity government, national independence, a new constitution, and the peace process.”

That statement says it all. One might wonder: What if the present political line-up continues to vote, as it has, for another, non-Maoist party to lead the government? Or to carry on as if Nepal indeed is independent, is involved in a peace process, and is writing a constitution, with only the Maoists determined to keep all of those things from being realities? “We don’t want to go back to the jungle as the regressive forces have wished,” answers Prachanda gravely.

The problem is that “back to the jungle” has never been the plan. Just what the Maoists are up to has been stated time and again, most recently by Central Committee member (and Mrs. Bhattarai), Hisila Yami, in a op-ed published by Kantipur located at the following URL: http://www.kantipuronline.com/kolnews.php?&nid=208193.

Maoist Game Plan

The article contains the Maoist "game plan," spelled out very clearly. Maoists speak openly but in a language which utilizes "code." All one must do is decode, and the course of action appears. In fact, the same terminology can be found by perusing the pronouncements of any of the Maoist movements which have left their bloody fingerprints on the post-World War II pages of history.

Particularly interesting, though, is the striking similarity between the Nepali Maoist formulations and those of their Philippine counterparts. Though one might suspect plagiarism, the reality is simply that the ultimate sources are the same if one is using Maoist texts. They draw upon an eclectic group for inspiration but overwhelmingly Lenin and Stalin.

What unfolds in Ms. Yami’s discussion is the contents of the recent Maoist leadership debate on how to proceed. It's an old debate when it comes to Maoist insurgency: Do you mine beneath the opposition's castle, ultimately bringing it down with a charge from below? Or do you charge the gates, because you know the enemy within is weak and of limited will to resist?

Ms. Yami -- speaking for her husband's (and presumably Prachanda’s) faction -- recognizes that attempting to seize power now through overt mechanisms (“back to the jungle”) will certainly result in disaster -- and probably Indian invasion. Consequently, what she advocates is the classic "tunnel under them" or united front approach. The "new democratic republic" she mentions is the normal Maoist vehicle for doing this.

"A new democratic republic" sounds innocuous, but it is "Maoist" for a united front government. This is a government of like-minded forces brought together to oppose particular issues but later discarded when it is time to "move on." Such an approach was called "salami tactics" (from slicing the salami) in the 1960s and was used by the Soviets in Eastern Europe and, of course, the Maoists everywhere.

The tactic is simple: you get “useful idiots” to throw in with you to support tactical issues, such as "civilian supremacy." Who would be opposed to that? But the point is to use the issue to neutralize a particular foe, to achieve a particular end. The army, for instance, as has been demonstrated, remains the last real obstacle to the Maoists’ being able to do whatever they want. Neither the police nor the Armed Police will oppose them. They will simply fall in line, particularly because their leadership will be replaced with people who favor the Maoists. Thus, the need of the moment is to use the lofty goal to rally a coalition capable of neutralizing the army.

Once the particular issue at hand has been achieved, however, a new "crisis" issue will emerge. Then, the Maoists will seek to isolate the new foe – with the “issue” often explicitly invented to place that foe in its precarious position. The “Maoist discussion before this discussion” – on which foe was primary – centered around just this issue. At the time, Nepali Congress (NC) was seen as the key obstacle (in cahoots with the army, to be sure), because the UML was playing the “useful idiot” role.

Turns the worm, the UML has thrown sand in the gears, siding with both NC and the nefarious “still RNA at heart” (as the Maoists see it, especially in their not-so-secret conclaves).

What must be done, then, is to form the new coalition – their “Maoist-led national unity government” – to isolate and eliminate NC, UML, and NA. Gradually, by splitting, splitting, and splitting ("slicing the salami"), they will eliminate their rivals until the only people left are Maoists. Nobel Prize-winning author, the late Aleksandr I. Solzhenitsyn, lays this out exactly in his famous work, Lenin in Zurich (1975).

A Republic is Not a Republic

A "people's federal democratic republic" (see Ms. Yami’s text) is but an interim step to the "new democratic republic" and the eventual "people's republic." Ms. Yami has spelled it out clearly: the need at present is to mobilize "anti-feudal" and "anti-imperialist" forces (feudal forces are those who favor parliamentary democracy and the market; imperialists are, in pride of evil place, the Americans and their friends, especially the dastardly Indians). How to mobilize these forces? By giving them the Maoist version of "federalism," a passing out of linguistic, ethnic, and economic goodies which exist in theory but will prove disastrous in fact. Long before realization is reached, the Maoists will have moved on and consolidated complete power.

Ironically, since the technique always works when faced with the sort of handicapped thinking one encounters in a particular slice of Nepal's chattering classes, what Ms. Yami is so angry about is the hard-core Maoists within her own party, those who want to "go for it." This is the group that challenges Prachanda and wants to use concerted street violence and assassination to sweep away the opposition.

A version of this is in play. The killing and the threats are daily reported in Nepali media. The unsavory actions of the Maoists at the Balaju Industrial Area are ample testimony to the manner in which violence has been woven into the warp and woof of every action undertaken by the “CPN(M)” (whatever its new name, it remains the same crew). So, too, do numbers of Nepali politicians bear witness to the actions of left wing fascism as they flee the country to escape the kukris, beatings, and kidnappings of the YCL storm troopers (yes, they’ve reflagged – name changes are meaningless).

And such sub-rosa violence is working. Yet, for the hard-core, none of this has given the Party power. The army remains intact and will fight; and India -- and even the most feckless and fickle of the foreign presence – seem willing to support the present government. Ultimately, though, it's an Indian show, and the Bhattarai faction is well aware that an IPKF would end the Maoists. They are not LTTE.

Faced with such a situation, Ms. Yami is surely correct that the proper course is to walk softly and carry a big kukri. Unfortunately, to keep the factions aligned, Prachanda has agreed to go to the well one more time, to once again threaten and bluster in the expectation that capitulation will result.

The Future

How well Prachanda has calculated will determine the future of Nepal. By now, a sizable portion of the public is wise to the Maoist strategy. It is unlikely he could field the same lineup as he so often threatens for a Janaandolan III. Nevertheless, he has mobilized the lumpens and the clueless in sufficient numbers to make a go of it.

By “discuss civilian supremacy,” Prachanda is not advancing the plain English meaning of the phrase. What he and the Maoists mean is this: if the government will once again give in, declare that only the prime minister can hire and fire, all will be well.

And it will be – for the Maoists. They will provoke the next round of crisis, put together the united front necessary to resume government leadership, then use that position to eliminate their few remaining foes. Dictatorship, when it comes, will be implemented in the name of “rule of law.”

Lenin in State and Revolution (p.73) put it bluntly: “…[T]heir resistance must be broken by force; it is clear that where there is suppression there is also violence, there is no liberty, no democracy.”

Thesis, antithesis and synthesis (By Hisila Yami)

Defining a Soft Coup

2009-08-03T18:29:00.002+05:45

(Courtesy: Bidushi Dhungel and Siddhartha Thapa)

The peace process in Nepal is approaching a deadlock and the contentious issue is the disagreement between political parties and the former rebels, the Maoist party regarding the tussle over the control of state institutions. The mainstream political parties have endured a constitutional democratic culture where state institutions remain independent of political pressure through checks and balances and the separation of power. However, the Maoists a party have expressed time and again its commitment to establish a people’s republic; a system which contravenes the very structure of a liberal democracy. The state institution that has repeatedly become a topic of debate at a local and political level is the national army- the Nepal Army.

The Nepal army has a long history; it is one of the oldest institutions in South Asia, whereas the PLA has a very infant one. The distinction is as such; the PLA was created by a single radical movement in the span of less than two decades. Their origin can be traced to one single objective which is to fight against and defy the Nepali nation state for the simple purpose of propelling the Maoist ideology. On the other hand, since its inception, the Nepal army has been the lifeline of Nepal’s sovereignty from Prithvi Narayan Shah to Bhimsen Thapa through to Jung Bahadur and into the Shah Dynasty. Until the mid twentieth century, the army played a crucial role in the day to day activities of the state. This was true across continents. What is also true is the fact that the Nepalese army has always been loyal to the political authority of the time. For example, with the political demise of Bhimsen Thapa and Amar Singh Thapa, there was speculation that there would be large scale discontent. However, the army sustained its composure and supported the government of the time. Similarly, as the Rana rule came to an end, the army subsequently took allegiance with the reigning monarch. The Economist, in a publication soon after the April revolution of 2006 described how the army had played a crucial role in convincing the king to hand back power to the political parties. Thus, history has now repeated itself and today we see the army closely aligned with the democratic forces and the government of the day.

There is rife speculation that the Nepal army is staunchly anti- loktantra. If so, such apprehensions need to be justified. Since the signing of the comprehensive peace agreement, the army has not once defied the rules that define the peace process. On the contrary, there have been consistent incidents where one or more PLA members have been solely responsible for the death of political adversaries, journalists and the common people who have simply dared to contest Maoist beliefs. The Maoists today have described the process of integration of the two armies as the core issue on which the future of the peace process hangs. But one must understand the difference between the Nepal army and the former rebels. For example, let’s examine the training received by PLA and the national army. While the national army has multiple functions- maintaining territorial integrity, alongside defending the sovereignty of the country, the PLA has a unilinear function- to revolt against the state and to organise the state within the paradigms of a communist paradise. This immediately begs one to ask how an armed group designed to revolt against the state can be loyal to that very state.

The integration of ideologically indoctrinated guerrilla fighters into the national army is bound to trigger political instability. In the long run, these indoctrinated and dogmatic guerrilla fighters will pollute and influence the thoughts of the common soldier of the Nepali army. The implications of such a move would be profound. The National army would no longer be apolitical and the democratic system of checks and balances will erode as one party will hold power over the vast national army. In essence, the integration of these radicalised fighters would serve the purpose of a soft coup staged by the leaders of these very fighters.

What we often overlook is that victory is still to be seen. The Maoists have gotten thus far through a process of negotiations and power sharing agreements. Had they won a military victory, it would be their right to do as they please. However, as their victory has not been a military one, the 12 Point Agreement and subsequent agreements have bound them within the constraints of a democratic polity. Credit must be given to the Maoists for their decision to engage with other political parties and the common people so far. But the intention of the Maoist party has created a realm of doubt through the utterances of their party leaders who have consistently harped on the idea of eliminating their adversaries in order to achieve their long term goal of establishing a people’s republic. Today, rather than the consolidation of democratic ideals and values, the Maoist party seems to be engrossed in the process of exploiting the weaknesses of other political parties and vital state institutions. This can be manifested by their eventual demand of integrating their fighters into the national army as the political parties began to lose their edge.

The conclusion of the constituent assembly elections and the catapulting of the Maoist party into forefront of national politics as the largest political party have dramatically altered the political equation of the country. In fact, the election victory has bolstered the enthusiasm of the Maoist party to push for complete consolidation of power. However, the Nepalese army (the only other organised armed force that can challenge them) remains the only prominent hurdle to their destination of a people’s republic. The political parties have long been out manoeuvred and as a result, the Maoists have understood that the political parties are no match for them. Therefore, the neutralisation of the Nepal army is a strategic necessity for the Maoists to attain total power.

The episode that triggered the divergence between the Nepal army and the Maoists has been much scrutinised. At the heart of this conflict lies the debate regarding the actions of the army chief, the president and that of the Maoist party. First, the army chief’s bold move to defy the prime minister’s demand for his resignation prevented the collapse of the very structure of the Nepal army. Second, in an abnormal situation as was then the president’s apt intervention saved the country from serious political breakdown and crisis. Third, the army chief resignation row coupled with the release of the Prachanda video has completely exposed the Maoists. The consequences of this were so great that they had to leave government and have had to lie low as a result.

The future discourse of Nepali politics remains extremely fragile. This is because while the present government has enough members to form a government it doesn’t possess the numbers required to draft and implement a new constitution. It is this number game that has become the new mantra of the Maoist party to overwhelm the state. The Maoists now are engaging in talks with the two other major political parties (NC and UML) for the integration of their fighters into the national army. In such informal talks, the Maoists have been reported to be appeasing both the UML and the NC into fanciful power-sharing agreements like that of the past. Concurrently, the Maoists are also making it clear that without them the constitution will not be drafted on time as planned. Their demand: the integration of ideological fighters into the national army. You decide.

The Country Cursed by a Widow

2009-07-21T18:49:00.000+05:45

(Courtesy: Krishna Giri)

I don’t think any Nepali will raise their eyebrows when they hear- “SATI LE SARAPEKO DESH”. Right from the unification, Nepali have witnessed ongoing severity in terms of governance. Power snatching by any means has become style in Nepal. I don’t want to go back to 17th century to dig the past. Rather I will go back to the recent past. 20 governments in 20 years; that's pretty impressive, and with all due respect, Maoist supremo has presently announced that another unity government is coming in weeks. Will Maoists allow MK to stay as a buffoon PM for next few weeks or they want MK to continue with his bizarre funny political career until the festive season? This remains a mystery as the ball is in Maoist court. Not just MK but UML is an amusing party. They don’t have any leaders to lead the party; at least, none who can win peoples hearts and votes. Enough assessments have been done about CA performance for various including former DPM to current PM and I should waste no time. The UML Party - neither capitalist nor communist. Simply, lost in ideology and leadership, particularity, after the rise of Maoists.

Successive failures to act in national interests have plunged the country into utter chaos. Having 20 PMs and almost 1000 ministers in past 20 years did not help to produce some appealing leaders. These couple of decades of democratic transition should have taught leaders to act above personal and party interests. How long is adequate for a democratic transition will remain a question in Nepal’s history. No one can escape from their moral obligation as all national parties have run this country in some stage. But why they failed and subsequently we failed? We can’t always blame our geographic features and neighbours. Being a Hindu Kingdom until recent past, is this is the nation that was really cursed by a widow? If yes, what is coming next? Astrologers failed to forecast the end of 240 years old Monarchy but can someone help us to find out when this anarchy is coming to an end? Is the curse going to diminish since the country has been already declared a secular state?

Raiding dance restaurants and casinos is not enough to maintain law and order in a country. Witch hunting has stretched to looters and abductors. People have lost faith in law and security imposers and started to take laws in their own hands. Lynching and beating of culprits may sound a relief for victims but is it the way a country should be operating? Who is to be blamed for? Who preached these teachings? What have become breeding grounds for up to 80 armed insurgent groups? What was the cause for which 15000 people died? And what were the reasons for the abolition of - Monarchy, Hindu state, Daura Suruwal to Nepali language?? There are thousands of questions to be answered by state. This country has been cursed by a widow but this can not be answers to all, can it?

Maobadi tried to tussle with big brother and the obvious result was the fall of the government. People knew that conventional fact long before Prachanda admitted honouring them, 'Bideshi Prabhu'. Even in his departing speech, he could not spell them out but rather, he identified them as god. Soon after their exit from government, their performances have gotten better; bringing the country into standstill, from streets to CA chamber. I beg your pardon but what an elegant way to exercise democracy. It has just been weeks since the fall of last government and we have already started to perceive new game about Tibet. Is it just India matters for us? Can’t we play a positive sum game between India and China? What are the consequences if China is annoyed? Is this is the pretext to fall yet another government? If a government can not sustain a year, what prosperity can we expect? Is this really is a democracy that we are exercising? We do not have any local governments for more than a decade and may remain the same for many years to come. This is the fundamental breach on norms of democracy. If we lookup to our main democratic figures, one should not be amazed by the fact that they all are autocrats. Why everything looks so wrong? Why this horde of people can not agree on national interests? Why they can not come together for economic and social prosperities? Why they can not agree to hold free and fair elections in all levels? Why peace and security of this country is not important to all? Is it because, “YO SATILE SARAPEKO DESH HO”?

Deliver or Quit

2009-07-06T23:33:00.002+05:45

(Courtesy: Dr. Hari Bansha Dulal)

It’s been more than a year since the election of Constitution Assembly (CA). On April 10, 2010, the stipulated term of the CA, which is mandated to draft a new constitution and decide the issue of federalism expires. In the last fourteen months, CA members, who draw a salary of fifty thousand Rupees, have been seen engaged in everything from infamous land grabbing and brawl within CA secretariat campus to availing services of masseuse but draft constitution and decide on the federal structure. If we a do a back-of-the-envelope calculations, six hundred one CA members have so far drawn forty two crores in salary alone. The political parties seem to appear interested in everything else but drafting a constitution and agreeing on a functionally viable federal structure. A federal structure that is fiscally sufficient to govern itself, safeguard the rights and interests within its jurisdiction, and most importantly, maintain unity in diversity.

Having a constitution also means complying with the stipulated rules. After all who wants to play by the rules in “New Nepal” except for the poor, who are bound to? At least not the major political parties. If media is to be believed, in the past six months, only 12 days were free of any kind of strikes or bandhs. The strikes or bandhs that accounted for the 166 days of lost productivity in the past six months were not called by the disgruntled silence majority, which in reality should have been the case. The largest party in the CA leads the pack in enforcing strikes. Organizations affiliated with UCPN-M, whose mother party claims to be the only force capable of bringing sociopolitical and economic transformation in the country was responsible for enforcing 39 bandhs and strikes in the month of may and June alone. It enforced 69 bandhs and strikes in the past six months. Others, who claim to be the alternative to the Maoist bullying are not very far behind. The UML and the NC organized 17 and 15 bandhs during the past six months. So if we combine the strikes and bandhs called by the major three parties, they are responsible for 101 days of lost productivity in the last six months. What does that say, if anything, about the seriousness on the part of the political parties that are responsible for solving common men’s problem and moving the nation forward?

There is a rapid decay in the sense of public service among the politicians. Sadly, the political parties are using democratic process and institutions to legitimize their undemocratic and antisocial activities aimed at achieving their ultimate goal, the maximization of rents. Lack of viable alternatives has left Nepal people used to the moral bankruptcy of the political class. You can contest elections on ethnic agendas, become a foreign minister for nine months and get away without uttering a word on the need for ethnic empowerment for nine months. The globe-trotting foreign minister is again back in action posing himself as ethnic messiah. Political insincerity of few politicians is diluting the purity of the demand for ethnic rights.

Nobody, at least not the politicians, want to have a serious constructive debate on the form of federal structure that is viable and just. The major political parties, whose leadership comprises of mostly pahadi Brahmins and Chettris do not want to raise the issue, because they clearly see their clout diminishing if ethnic federalism is realized. But they do not want to say that, at least not in public. So what they do is- give it a nationalist color. They phrase it quite nicely. Ethnic mindset is antithetical to the notion of national integrity and nationalist pride. Sounds great. Doesn’t it? But the ethnic minorities that are pushing for ethnic federalism do know where these politicians’ Mecca is located at.

Progress should be the ultimate criteria for designing a federal structure. The federal structure should be founded in administrative prudence and developmental prospects rather than petty issues of politics like ethnicity, caste, and language. It is important ensure that the poor, who are not only ethnic minorities benefit from the new structure or else the demand for the separate state is not going to go away like in India. It is important ensure that the poor, who are not only ethnic minorities benefit from the new structure or else the demand for the separate state is not going to go away like in India. The demand for separate states did not die down with the creation of Uttaranchal, Jharkhand, and Chhattisgarh, which were carved out from Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Madhya Pradesh. Currently, the demand for creation of 10 new states is lying before the Indian government. India, which was governed and governed quite effectively by British under 4 Administrative Blocks-Bombay, Madras, Calcutta and Delhi-now has 30 states. If the demand for 10 more states is met, it will have 40 states. The country which was divided along the linguistic lines has encouraged fight for language, water, and border. It did not stop there. Politicians further divided the nation along minorities, hindus, scheduled caste (SC), scheduled tribe (ST), and other backward castes (OBCs). The demand for separate state based on ethnicity to promote vote-bank politics has vitiated sociopolitical environment. In Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, the demand for Harit Pradesh and Mithilanchal is being raised. The mental portioning of India engineered by V.P. Singh is getting deeper.

Nepal should learn from Indian experience. A sincere effort towards drafting constitution and debate on federal structure should start immediately. Running away from the problem is not the solution. It will require a sincere dialogue and consensus building. Political elites of yesteryears do not want to cave in to the demands of regional parties as it will shrink their political base and bargaining potential. The regional parties do not want to compromise on anything less than “one madhesh, one pradhesh” because the very minute a regional party will agree to anything less than “one madhesh, one pradhesh” demand, other regional players will cry foul and call it a "sellout." But this game of waiting the other party to drop the ball cannot go for ever, can it?

Constitution drafting and design of the federal structure is put in back burner because of political insincerity. Remaining insincere towards people’s need and the nation’s progress while drawing a pay check at best can be called as a morally repugnant act. Either CA members should stop draining the state’s coffer or get back to the business.

(This piece was originally published on My Republica and is re-produced here with the Author's consent).

Failure of Mr. Makuna

2009-07-01T18:53:00.003+05:45

(Courtesy: Kalyan Dev Bhattarai)

When I took active part in the 1990 revolution I was proud for my activities then and till now. Today I feel stupid enough to have taken part in such dirty game of power and feel sorry for respecting this power lusted corrupt so called leaders. What our politicians have been doing since last 60-70 years is known to all Nepalese people and need sno further elaboration.

The political activities since 1990 Andolan clearly showed who ever may come in the power they are same their objective is same –looting the nation, nepotism, betraying the people and selling the nation By fooling the people the so-called leaders (in my language camouflaged dacoits –leaving few exception) the main objectives of our so-called leaders is to create the enmity between and among the Nepalese people in the name of language, cast, religion, location, sex, etc and loot the nation in this or that pretext like the medical treatment, Savasad allowance "Kuti Niram " Tax free Pajero, and many many such pretexts.

What is the contribution of the Sushil Koirala for the nation to get the 2 corore worth of medical allowance for his few US visit in the name of medical treatment, from the taxpayer's money of poor Nepalese people other than he is brother of then P M G. Koirala? If this is not looting of the country's treasury, what is this? At present watching the present day politics Nepalese people feel shame, disgusted, Cheated, betrayed, deceived, and raped openly in daylight in the name of so called democracy by so called politicians who are fighting like cats and dogs for the post of lucrative ministry. Now even the small of the smallest party having one seat in assemble also demanding the position equivalent to state minister for their leader. According to the published news all the ex PM of the country have looted the costly vehicle from the project and transferred in red plate If this is not looting of the country's property what you call it? In my opinion all these ex PM should be hang to death. If this is politics what is day light robbery and looting of the country? I wonder how long the corrupt politicians think people will tolerate these camouflaged dacoits and continue to loot the nation. But there is a limit for every thing and to day people are so frustrated with these so called leaders that any time the people will start chasing the present day leaders and lunch them

Mr. Makuna is the new PM of Nepal with the blessing of south Block and support of Girja Koirala to make his pampered daughter as foreign minister and is unable to complete his ministry after 31 days of his appointment and is total failure to fulfill commitment made to the people immediately (next day) after swearing. The kidnapping for ransom is rampant, and has become a regular feature and as long as the present day nexus between the politicians and kidnappers continue there will be no improvement in the security condition of the country. What a mockery of democracy to form such ministry where the people reject more than majority.

At present there is no security, no law and order and the anarchism is visible in every corner of the country. In my opinion the fate of this country and future of nation would be much better if the ministry is selected from the street dogs because the bunch of dogs as Ministers and PM at least will be patriotic and they will not allow the Indians to encroach our land In Susta, Dang, Kalapani etc) and rape our sisters and loot the hard working farmers will not demand bribery make no false commitment and will not loot the country's treasury and be highly satisfied with the food and limited facilities provided them as ministers and the bureaucracy will not be disturbed to run the country smoothly .

In the name of democracy Nepal is getting a PM who is rejected by the people not only from one place but two places in the last election and analyst say it is unconstitutional because it is clearly mentioned that those who are not elected can not be PM of the country. If that is true the present PM is not only undemocratic but unconstitutional also. This is all happening in the so-called New Nepal and if this is the trailer of the New Nepal, what will be the real scenario of the country in coming days, any people can easily guess and start shaking with fear and uncertainties.

The fighting of last 4 weeks for the lucrative ministry by different party leaders was not only shame full but no better than the fight between the bunch of street for a piece of buffalo bones which gave me the idea of suggesting to make the ministry from the street dogs for the benefit of nation as well as people.

The last election of constitutional assembly was nothing but a mockery of the election because the system was so designed by the camouflaged dacoits that only the party representatives would be landing in the constitutional assembly. As far as my knowledge goes the people's representatives are those who are elected by the majority of the people and should get at least 50 % of the votes. If we agree to all accepted definition of peoples representative, then we can say fairly that present constitutional assembly shows not a single people's representatives (leaving few like Dr Babu Ram Bhattarai) but all party representatives who are assembly member not because they are better qualified, abele and competent or are people's choice but based on their ability of boot polishing, and greasing of their leader. If such peoples are the members of present constitutional assembly, you can not expect better than what is happening to day and forces you to worry on the future of the country, and the fate of the citizen.

It is a well-known fact that in the present constitutional assembly there are hardly any members who are people's representative in true sense, with few expectation all the present day, members of constitutional assembly are party representatives.

In multi-party system the country is run by politicians and their representative and I have no problem on that issue but how on earth, the same group who runs the country also can write the main rules to run the country (constitution). Such system is against the simple and basic logic of Constitutionalism, as the politicians will always look after their personal and partisan interest only and can never write the constitution, which is people oriented. In this context I do not see any possibility of writing the peoples constitution by the present party members of the constitutional assembly within the scheduled time. Yes they will write the constitution which will be neither the people oriented nor will cover the people's interest, aspirations, wishes and nation's requirements but will be just a document prepared to loot the nation openly in different context as before. In a small country like Nepal the politicians agreed to put the 601 members in the constitutional assembly and in my opinion this is nothing but a day light robbery of the nation's treasury by the politician (camouflaged dacoits). To expect people's constitution by such bunch of thugs is nothing but intellectual bankruptcy.

I do not know what the definition of Democracy is for the country's political parties, but the way the present President over rode the assembly elected P.M 's decision of sacking the army chief and overruled the government decision and gave order to the sacked army chief to continue is nothing but the raping of the democracy and buttering the army chief to safe guard his chair. According to the statement published by the president's office, what ever he did was on the request of 18 political parties and petition of the army chief: after this, no further discussion was required on this issue. The act of reemploying the sacked army chief by present president is unconstitutional, undemocratic, in my opinion and the president should be impeached for this unconstitutional act, if there is any tint of democratic norm in the present day members of constitutional assembly, which I doubt very much.

The present day political scenario is created, groomed, and mechanized by the Indian politicians and it is clear to every body that the effort of Mr. Sitaram Yechuri to complete the 12 point resolution between the Maoist and SPA, and to bring the Maoist in the power in spite of Indian Congress disagreement. However during the mentioned period the Sitaram Yechuri was playing important role in the stability of Indian government and Indian Congress did not interfere in the activities of Yechuri and at present when the Indian election gave such a result where Yechuri was no more important to Indian Congress to stay in power, it started its machination to dethrone the Maoist from Power and instigated the army and its puppet like NC and UML to go against the Maoist decision of sacking the army chief, which they had agreed before the result of the Indian election was out. This is what I called the political raping

The other very important fact to remember is that the party like NC and UML were dead against the constitutional assembly election and the republican state, but they were forced to accept both of these demands of the Maoist due to the pressure of the Nepalese people, and the leadership of both the parties (NC and UML) are yet to accept the realities and still consider the Army chief as superior to them and is the de facto king's representative and can not be expected to go against the army chief until the South Block instructs them to do so. In this context, it is to remember here that as it took couple of years for the NC and UML to follow the people's wish of republican state and constitutional assembly election, similarly it will take some time for the NC and UML to accept the wishes of the people of establishing the peoples supremacy over the army, however they have to pay heavy political price for that. Further neither NC nor UML leaders have explained to the people why they differed with the Maoist demand of the republican state and constitutionally assembly then , which they accepted after getting the thrashing from the Indian leaders and in this context I see the NC and UML leaders are fully responsible for the unnecessary death of more than 10 000 innocent Nepalese people during the period of peoples war and these leaders should be put to trial for the genocide

I remember very well when I publicly expressed my opinion (I was the first Nepali to express this opinion publicly) that the king should be removed by referendum, the present day leaders who claim them as the republican supporters were writing against me and threatening in phone and charging me as a supporter of Maoist. This is the political bankruptcy of the present day parties in Nepal. The NC and UML who opposed the constitutional assembly election neither have said a single word why and how they changed their opinion today, nor have explained the political reason for this 180 degree turn. This shows clearly that the Nepalese politics is no better than the prostitution. For the sake of power, the present day leaders are ready to do any thing, say any thing tie them with any force, change their opinion 10 times a day and this is the only country where the politics do not require any logic, ideology, dedication, education, belief, responsibility and can loot the nation freely with out any fear of legal action.

Madhab Nepal, who bowed down to king with coin, and supported and participated in the king's autocratic ruling saying the regression is half refined and lost from two places in the last election is new PM of the country. In my opinion 11th Jestha 2066 when he, took oath of PM from the present President who overruled unconstitutionally the decision of assembly elected PM is the darkest day in the history of the democratic Nepal. In my opinion all democracy loving citizen will remember this day as a very sad dark and politically shameful day and as a Nepalese citizen who participated actively during the last two revolutions all will feel shame for having followed such a crook people as leader.

From the activities of last few weeks one can say without any hesitations now that these corrupt leaders cannot write the new constitution, as they are in politics only to loot the nation and to expect constitution from such crooks will only be a intellectual bankruptcy

Due to all such political stupidity, wrong power hungry decisions, un ethical machinations, and undemocratic activities, whether we like or not, wish or not, the political activities of the so-called leaders of the country is taking the country to that point where the Nepalese people will have no choice but be forced to start another revolution where the tire will be not burn in the every corner of the country but the so-called leaders will be burnt alive. I can only wish for the "wisdom to prevail "in the present day power hungry corrupt so-called leaders (camouflaged dacoit) and that impending revolution could be averted in time without any further blood shed. Lets hope for the best and wish the common sense would come to the so-called leaders.

Will the Real Prachanda Stand Up?

2009-06-15T18:58:00.004+05:45

(Courtesy: Dr. Thomas A. Marks)

Just what goes on in the mind of Pushpa Kamal Dahal? His Maoists have lost the reigns of power through their own refusal to foster reconciliation. Yet no sooner has his custom-made (Rs. 110,000) bed been moved out of the Baluwater official residence, than “Fierce One” claims that democratic process is “counterrevolution.”

For good measure, he throws in that the goal of the new leadership is to restore the monarchy, which would seem laughable were it not accompanied by the orders for the YCL storm troopers to take to the streets.

Is this method or madness? Is Robin Just a Hood?

Where to look for answzers? It seems we have but a single book to which we can turn.

In bringing out a biography of “the valiant one” – as per the author, Indian journalist Anirban Roy; “fierce one” as per the most common rendering in Nepal – Mandala Book Point has performed a service. As the only successful communist effort to seize power since the end of the Cold War, the Maoists and their leader require study.

Unfortunately, for anyone interested in something more than various personal details, “the revolutionary” will remain “unknown.” Roy’s book touches upon little of substance and thus leaves us with less than can be gained by reading the often accurate, insightful, and increasingly caustic assessments in the Nepali daily media.

If there is one subject which must be the essence of any book on an insurgent leader, it is the relationship between the leadership and the manpower of the movement. Not only is this critical for understanding the course of the CPN(M)’s people’s war, but also for understanding now the inability of Prachanda’s Maoist-led, pseudo-coalition government to produce little beyond chaos, declining livelihood, and intimidation.

Many have argued – certainly it seems to be the opinion of Roy and a fraction of the Indian foreign policy establishment – that Prachanda is “really” a larger than life version of Robin Hood who has sought only to address the myriad economic, social, and political grievances (as well as hopes and aspirations) of the marginalized Nepali masses. This “moral economy of the peasants” version simply does not consider the obvious: what if Robin is just a Hood?

For the central question of the nasty decade of Maoist insurgency in Nepal has been whether the dog wagged his tail or vice versa. How much that occurred – and it was a bloody decade between 1996 and 2006, with the dead augmented an order of magnitude by mutilations, disappearances, and the like – was planned or simply the result of being astute enough to exploit events as they were carried out autonomously or semi-autonomously by others?

What seems clear is that a fairly typical (in Nepali terms) party structure, the CPN(M), led by marginalized elites (the principal figures among whom, like Prachanda, were Brahmins), achieved traction through linkage with dissatisfied tribal formations, particularly Maggars (who appear historically to have provided a plurality of those recruited to the British Gurkhas). This was not unlike what occurred in the Hmong areas of the north during the unsuccessful effort of the Communist Party of Thailand (CPT) or in the northern Luzon homelands of the Igorots during the 1980s heyday of the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP).

There, the leadership was Maoist, the manpower grievance guerrillas. Whether the CPT or CPP actually exercised command and control over the tribal formations remains unclear, as it does in the CPN(M) case.

How the Maoists Wages War

In Nepal, the tribal formations appear to have been the heart of the main forces, Maoist battalions, just as the so-called “Secret Army” of the US in Laos was built upon Hmong alienated by North Vietnamese and Pathet Lao abuse. The Maoist battalions were in essence copies of the Indian Gurkha establishment (no surprise given the prominence in Maoist training of ex-figures from that establishment, which presently numbers more than 40 battalions). They were mixed gender, had good discipline, and fought effectively using standard though innovative tactical doctrine.

These forces, however, were a distinct minority amidst the violence that swept across Nepal. They were linked to the numerous local wars that raged in Nepal’s localities – theoretically, in the 3,913 Village Development Committees (VDCs, counties in Western terminology). It was at this local level that the atrocities largely took place.

Efforts to place the onus of human rights abuses on government forces do not hold up well, since they essentially sidestep the massive level of assault and maiming, not to mention destruction of infrastructure, that was carried out by Maoist local forces. Even as this debate has continued, what has not been touched – certainly not in Roy’s volume – is the connection between such local agency and Maoist central structures.

How much was ordered versus simply exploited?

The CPN(M) leadership throughout has claimed absolute control over the organization – except when it comes to owning up to widespread depredation. To the contrary, the Maoists continue to fall back upon denying that which is undeniable. They simply do not acknowledge that their movement wreaked havoc upon the country.

Yet the only defence is to claim that the main forces were the movement, and the rest occurred as commission by loosely affiliated fellow-travellers. This, of course, means they did not actually carry out the insurgency.

This is far from an idle issue, since lawlessness continues under the official umbrella of the Young Communist League (YCL; reflagged but the same organization), storm troopers drawn from the lumpen ranks but officered by the same Maoist chain-of-command that ran the main forces. As a consequence, the demoralized police, unable to act due to continuous political intervention, have been displaced by armed gangs linked to the major political parties.

It matters very much, too, as illustrated by “Prachandagate.” It is not that UNMIN “miscounted.” It is that the inspectors did not know what to count.

The Maoists packed both local and main forces into the camps, plus thousands of brand new recruits. In any Maoist structure, main forces (the battalions) are the tip of the iceberg. Most “combatants” are local forces, largely unarmed with high-powered firearms.

It is similar to the structure of any state security forces. In Nepal, the bulk of the armed representatives of the government are not in the army but in other forces, such as the police.

Hence – as Prachanda himself said in his defence – most of those in the camps were indeed “combatants” of sorts but not the “real guerrillas” that the world was hoodwinked into thinking it was counting. Further, while it could count weapons turned in, it had no way of knowing what was not turned in – and some of the best and most powerful pieces did not appear in the UNMIN inventories.

It has already been noted by one and all what happened next. The camps were used to expand the actual main forces (with the Maoists allowed to retain a proportion of their weapons), while the chain-of-command stood up new local forces – the YCL.

What, then, do the Maoists have in mind for the future of Nepal? Prachanda speaks constantly of the need to displace parliamentary democracy in favor of a people’s republic (though, as with the actual name of the CPN(M), a new formulation has lately been advanced).

Key elements in the Maoist leadership urge an outright power grab. Prachanda and his faction appear to feel that such would provoke, at best, isolation (not least from dominant India), at worst, external intervention (again, India is a prime candidate). Therefore, they urge caution, noting that the same end can be achieved without provocative action.

The Maoists themselves are rent by factionalism, with some truly odious characters not only urging but openly leading violent acts even as Prachanda consuls…what? As noted accurately in Nepali media, “Fierce One” seems all but schizophrenic in his shifts between conciliatory rhetoric and threats of vengeance to be visited upon any who seek to thwart the grandiose schemes of him or his party.

Revolution in the Revolution

Any student of the Nepali insurgency would have asked that such issues as discussed here be placed at the heart of a biography of Prachanda. Regrettably, they are not even raised much less addressed.

From knowledge, though, comes the ability to act. Would be that there had been an understanding of the basics of Maoist military structure. Key issues which remain for exploration by the media and academia:

First, a discussion of the strategic thought of the Maoists is needed, especially of the factionalism that led to the fierce debates that occurred within the leadership ranks during the struggle. These offer the Rosetta Stone to Prachanda’s present conduct (and that of his faction).
Second, how was operational advance during “the war” related to the individual positions of the Maoist leadership, especially Prachanda (who, judging from Nepali cell phone intercepts, spent much of the decade not in the theatre of operations but India)?
Third, what were the actual mechanics whereby this advance was achieved? How, for example, did the urban commandos function in the Kathmandu Valley? Who gave the orders to kill those who were murdered and left hanging on poles throughout the country?
Fourth, given the way events have been developing as concerns New Delhi, what was the relationship of Prachanda and his leadership to India? What was the agreement both thought they had reached? After all, it not only did not arrest him (Nepali security forces did provide to the Indians his whereabouts) but ultimately intervened decisively in favor of the insurgents.
Fifth, what was the role played by fellow-travellers (both domestic and international) in the Maoist effort? At no time did Prachanda or the Maoists exist as isolated actors. They interacted with numerous Nepali political parties and individuals (e.g., elements of the press and the human rights establishment), as well as numerous foreign actors, official (e.g., certain embassies) and unofficial (e.g., certain INGOs). What was the end-game being pursued by these forces and how did it influence the conflict? Was Prachanda central or marginal to these activities?
Sixth, how do the party factions relate to the present chaos and unwillingness of the Maoist movement to engage in good-faith reconciliation? To what extent is Prachanda a prisoner of the local forces that swept him to power or a shrewd politician playing the ends against the middle?

End-Game

Certainly the author pegs him as the latter, though no disinterested observer would accept this position without a great deal of scepticism. Put bluntly, as stated above in slightly different terms: what does “the unknown revolutionary” really believe?

Regrettably, no answers to these and other questions are to be found in the book. What we do know from readily available sources is not encouraging.

Power is the end-game for Prachanda and the Maoists. All they do revolves around that one goal.

Power can be gained “peacefully” – by which the Maoists mean the system surrenders to them and their plans for societal dismemberment. Or it can be achieved violently – what the Maoists are preparing to do with their street thugs (they have announced it).

If Roy’s book provides no answers, there are thousands (literally) which do. Pick up any volume on the rise of Fascism between the great wars. There, a reader will find spelled out chapter and verse what is unfolding in Nepal. Only the name of the storm-troopers has changed to protect the guilty.

An Open Letter to the United States of America

2009-06-12T07:46:00.001+05:45

(Courtesy: Birat Simha)

To:
Mr. Robert O’Blake
US Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia

Your visit to Nepal on 12-13 June, today and tomorrow, is appropriate, timely and welcome. The papers say that you will be discussing a broad range of issues with top officials of the new government in Nepal during your visit to Kathmandu. I further understand that this is your first visit here in your present official capacity. As the representative of the United States and its new dynamic president, Barack Obama, we Nepalis expect much from your visit.

This country is going through a unique process. Some call it the birth pangs of democracy. Others are not so generous. Democracy, as envisaged by the drafters of your constitution, has not even showed its face in this euphemistically termed “New Nepal”. A communist rebellion was appeased by weak political parties with external support from a close neighbour. The country was declared secular, federal and a republic without putting these major issues to the people by the democratic process universally called “referendum”. The election of April 2008 was termed fair by the likes of Mr. Jimmy Carter who did this country no service by his callous statements. The past nine months of the Maoists-led coalition government has not improved this country by even an iota. The increased revenues are cited as an achievement. But these revenues were not able to be utilized for development. They remain useless in government bank accounts or perhaps in the deep pockets of some politicians.

Now we have a Prime Minister who lost the election in two constituencies. Our Foreign Minister is also similarly qualified. The Nepali Congress party, considered the harbinger of democracy in this country, is not democratic within itself. The CPN-UPL, to which party the new PM belongs to, does not even have enough internal unity to choose its ministers for the new cabinet. The Madhesi Janadadhikar Forum, with its quixotic demand for “One Madesh, One Pradesh” is splintered down the middle. These are the three largest parties in the Constituent Assemble, after the Maoists – all with internal in-fighting resulting in political impotence.

The Maoists, as every red-blooded American is aware of, are hell-bent on creating a “People’s Republic”. Their current flirtation with multi-party democracy is merely a tactical step towards their ultimate goal of state capture. No hope of democracy from their side.

So, Mr. O’Brien, representing the most powerful democracy in the world today, what are you going to do to help foster democracy in Nepal? We are fully aware of your country’s interest in Nepal as a potentially soft under-belly of China. But Nepal’s foreign policy vis-à-vis the Tibet issue is very different from the United State’s or India’s. It has to be because we must live with our two giant neighbours. During the past two years, Tibet’s office in Nepal has been closed down. Tibetan protesters at the Chinese Embassy here have been arrested, some rather viciously. Nepal does not have the luxury of American indulgence in Tibetan rights. Your actors, such as Richard Gere, may come here and highlight the issue of “freedom for Tibet”. But for us, China is a powerful neighbour who has also helped us much in development and with whom, I might add, we have no border encroachment problems. If the US wants Nepal to support the Tibet freedom movement, the geo-political equations here have to change drastically. Mind you, as a country which was never colonized, it would also be difficult for us to accept any overt forms of external intervention.

Mr. O’Brien, our new government has stated that the conclusion of the peace process and the timely drafting of the new Constitution are its priorities. And they should be. But how do we conclude the peace process when 19,000 rebel fighters are still camped in various parts of the country at the government’s expense, when it is an open secret that they have access to far more fire power than the few old guns locked up under UNMIN supervision, when the Maoists’ youth wing, the YCL, create havoc at will, when Maoist members of the CA openly declare that they can take over Kathmandu in a mere 12 hours. How is peace possible in this scenario? As for the Constitution, alas we here do not have any Jeffersons, Adams or Franklins which your country was fortunate to have in the 1760’s. We simply have a motley crew of power-hungry politicians. So let not America be surprised if the constitution making process is delayed or even aborted.

Democracy has rights and obligations. Few politicians in Nepal think about the latter. Leadership is a sin qua non. Alas again, we do not have anyone with the leadership stature of a George Washington. Of course, we also do not have anyone with the moral stature of a Abe Lincoln. Enough of what we do not have. We do have, I believe, a vibrant youth population who are seeing their dreams of a happy future fade away. A lot of them are educated and aware. Even the political parties have a “few” of them, except the fossilized leadership in these parties ignores the aspirations and potential of youth. You, Mr. O’Brien, have a President well under 50 years in age. The venerable icon of Nepali democracy (and I do revel in sarcasm at times) is nearing 90!

Let me not ramble on, Mr. O’Brien. We need support from America in the construction of a strong and vibrant democracy in this country. We know you have the ability to help us with this – and without outsourcing it regionally. We expect a lot from the fresh leadership in your country. And we too think, “Yes, we can!”

New Rules, Same Game

2009-06-08T20:39:00.001+05:45

(Courtesy: Dr. Hari Bansha Dulal)

It did not take even three years for Nepali politicians, with their “business as usual,” under the table, tit-for-tat mentality, to get back to their infamous ways of mid-1990s. Once again, horse-trading of parliamentarians and backstabbing of fellow party men to grab and remain in power is back in vogue. Rules may have changed but the game remains the same.

The irony of Nepali politics is that the party which won the largest share of votes in the last election does not believe in multi-party democracy and the party – Nepali Congress (NC) – which calls itself the torchbearer of democracy and is the second-largest party in the parliament is the least democratic in its practices. By nominating Sujata Koirala, who is not even a member of the current parliament, to lead Nepali Congress (NC) in the new government, Girija Prasad Koirala (GPK) has put even the worst dictator to shame. As long as GPK is alive, it appears that the scourge of nepotism will never leave NC. Now, we all know what “democracy in peril” talk of GPK during the Maoist rule was all about, don’t we?

If we look around, it becomes pretty clear that dirty politics of yesteryears is here to stay with us as long as the likes of GPK are around. This is probably going to be the last chance to weaken the Maoists, who are hell bent on annihilating the multi-party democratic set-up, but looking at GPK’s actions it becomes clear that he is least interested in securing the liberty and freedom of people and more interested in establishing his controversial daughter with zero political acumen in politics. If democracy is all about the likes of Sujata becoming a minister, then people of Nepal will soon back the Maoists for whatever they stand for. For the poorest of poor, whatever the Maoists will have to offer will still be far better than what the likes of Sujata will offer anyways.

The new prime minister, who actually lost the CA elections to a junior Maoist politician, is here to solve the problem with Sujata as a minister and Kul Bahadur Khadka as the security advisor. Trying to consolidate democracy with the assistance of people like these is like banking on Osama Bin Laden to destroy Al Qaeda. Sujata should have faced disciplinary action and Khadka should have been court-martialed for his treacherous act. Rewarding them is the biggest sham in the country today in the name of democracy. With Sujata as a cabinet minister and Khadka as a possible national security adviser, do the Maoists need a mole in the government?

Madhav Kumar Nepal (MKN), with liabilities like Sujata on board and his flip-flopping past, does not come across as someone who can actually solve the problems that confronts the nation. Hiring the right people to do the job is the most important indicator of whether or not the job at hand will be successfully done. Even though it is NC’s prerogative to choose the members it likes to have in the cabinet, it was MKN’s responsibility to ensure that his cabinet members are competent, non-controversial and relatively clean so that people have faith on their ability to deliver in this troubling time. By caving in to GPK’s irresponsible and morally-repugnant act of nominating his daughter as a leader of the NC in the new cabinet, MKN has actually shown that he is ready to compromise his principles and stoop as low as possible to remain in power. If you cannot stand the heat, get out of the kitchen.

MKN may try to please everyone from GPK to Pushpa Kamal Dahal (PKD) by nominating Sujata and Khadka to increase the longevity of his tenure but by walking in the middle-of-the road, he has tremendously increased the possibility of getting run over by traffic coming in from the opposite direction.

At this point in time, Nepali people are not asking for much. They would be happy if he could just provide them an opportunity to live in peace. Asking for employment, social safety nets and access to healthcare services, which is by and large the government’s responsibility, would be like expecting a mule to give birth to a calf for us to worship during the upcoming “Laxmi Pooja”. So, no point raising our expectations. If politicians’ words were to be taken seriously, we would already have been like Switzerland long time ago.

On contrary, the politics of social mobilization, which the political parties carried out recklessly has surpassed institutional capacity and has dangerously destabilized the country. Maintaining a certain degree of law and order alone will be a great challenge for MKN as violators of law and order have enough cards at their disposal to play, when busted. Ethnicity, caste and class are the few cards that will remain potent to justify innocence till the government ensures inclusion of the people that have been bypassed by the political elites for decades. Providing cabinet berths to a few people from ethnic and indigenous groups is not the answer. Make everyone equal.

In order to empower people, one does not have to be a rebel. Abraham Lincoln, who abolished slavery, was not a rebel. Was he? Actually people who have been a rebel have fared far worse when it comes to empowering people. Our very own PKD did everything to extract political support from ethnic minorities but when it came to empowering them, he followed in GPK’s footsteps and nominated a couple of people from selected ethnic groups to show that he was sympathetic towards minorities’ rights.

MKN has a chance of a lifetime. His pragmatic actions, which may not be popular at times – and does not have to be – can whitewash his “flip-flopping” past. But, at the same time, if he is unable to come out of the spell of the likes of GPK and PKD and deliver, he will prove that he is just another goofball always ready to compromise on principles and stoop low to remain in the corridors of power.

(This writing was originally published here. It has been reproduced on NepaliPerspectives with the Author's consent)

Role of Energy in New Nepal

2009-06-01T07:14:00.002+05:45

(Courtesy: Kalyan Dev Bhattarai)

To day from politicians to intellectuals all are talking about new Nepal, future Nepal, inclusive Nepal and blab blab. The objectives of the different groups may be different to speak about new Nepal, from deceiving the poor innocent people to fulfill their petty interest to real determination of developing the country in new and progressive way. However, what ever pretext you add in front of Nepal to stress your determination to develop Nepal, it will not be fulfilled until you are able to use your available natural resources like the water, herbs, forest, manpower, natural diversity, traditional culture, and etc to the maximum possible in optimum way.

Our small lovely country is well equipped with many types of resources like human, raw minerals, water, forest, and many others but due to lack of political willpower, rampant corruption and absence of required dedication to develop the country, we are unable to use our available resources even to the minimum level. Here we all must understand clearly that by the rhetoric speech of the present day corrupt politician the country can neither develop nor solve its centuries old problems of poverty, exploitation, illiteracy, caste & religious supremacy, corruption, and lack of awareness. These were the main issues and responsible for the Maoist to raise arms and if we are unable to solve these problems some new power will develop in the country and start another arms struggle. To solve all the mentioned problems country need new leadership of young generation with new vision and determination with self respect earned through the honesty and dedication to wards the country. The same old corrupt bunch of hypocritical present day leadership can bring no change.

The vision of future Nepal can not and will not be materialize by following the same old culture of deceiving people and fulfilling the vested interest of few corrupt and proven failures of the past. Future Nepal must be visualized by youth generation to include their aspiration and fulfill their political, social and economical requirement rather than by the same old bureaucrats and decision makers, who have bitterly failed not only to fulfill their responsibility but also to lead the country in the path of development and also bitterly misused and sabotaged the trust of the people. See how cunningly the present P.M provided millions of rupees to his brother Mr. Sushil Koirala in the mane of medical treatment and also to K,P Bhattraai to build his house. Such type of looting the national property is the main objectives of present day leaders and to hope that the same corrupt politicians will build new Nepal is intellectual bankruptcy.

With this introduction I am limiting myself in this article to the role of energy in future Nepal, provided the country is lead by new young generation. It is a well known fact that Nepal has the vast water resources to develop our country provided the country can come out of the old stupid notion that “Nepal can be rich by selling electricity to India” This totally wrong, and antinational concept is developed and campaigned by water mafia group, who from their illegal earning are able to influence the decision makers and other concerned sector of the society as they have plenty of liquid cash earned through commission and other wrong doings. The simple logic of business is that one who invests will get the fruit of profit. Nepal at present economic scenario can not investment required money for possible mega projects and who invests in such projects they will benefit from such projects. The government can be expected to get the fixed royalty as mentioned in the water law and other benefits mentioned in the agreement if any, which can not be major to make any country rich, as in such scenario no outside investor will come to invest huge money.

If we can come out of this stupid notion of selling the hydropower energy to India and getting rich, the opportunity is there to vastly develop our own country by using our own resources for our own benefit. Hydropower is one of the main available natural resources, if properly used can play very important role to develop Nepal fast and vastly fulfilling the vision of new-Nepal. The vision of new Nepal can not be achieved fully depending upon donor’s co-operation, aid and loan. All such cooperation is required for developing country like Nepal, but only as a secondary source, the primary source should be the proper utilization of our own natural resources, honesty, and strong determination to develop the country. Hydropower is one of the main natural resources of the country available for the development of the country. I see the following uses of hydropower in Nepal to cope with the requirement of new-Nepal.

Present scenario

At present Nepal produces only 397.89 MW (Excluding the three thermal power installation of 55.66 MW in total) out of possible 83000 MW potentialities, out of which 42330 MW is proved economically feasible. This shows how poor is our utilization of available resources.
The 550 KW Pharphing hydropower plant was the first hydropower of country which was installed during 1911. It took more than three decades to add another 640KW Sundarijal plant. Further 2.5 MW plant of Panauti was added in 1965.In 1989 the total installed capacity reached to 250 MW due to cooperation of friendly countries and financial institution like World Bank.
The hydropower development was very slow due to various factors and the period of nineties was wasted arguing on the yes or no for Arun III project. In 1995 World Bank pulled out from Arun III which placed the country in imbalance situation of demand and supply, forcing the country to start load shedding

At present load shedding is regular phenomena and future looks more blink. Even with the present growth rate the projected demand of the country by 2020 will be 1840 MW suggesting big gap in supply.

In this scenario our thrust for the optimum utilization of our available resources of the Hydropower should be to develop Hydropower in the range of 50-60 MW cumulatively in all the 75 districts instead of thinking of Mega projects like Pancheswor, Mahakali etc. This policy of developing of Hydropower in all the 75 districts will provide regional balance on development and provide benefits on social, political, and techno-economic sectors. With this policy we will be able to generate a kind of trust to the people from east to west that they are not neglected and included in the path of development. Further this will provide the required energy to all the 75 districts for the industrial growth as well as for other purpose like domestic etc.

Transportation

Transportation is one of the vital sectors for the development of the country to materialize the dream of the new Nepal. Without linking all the seventy five districts of the country with each other to facilitate the flow of the products of each district easily and cheaply, the vision of new Nepal can not be fulfilled. To day we are in such a pathetic situation where we can not supply our own products like apple of mustang, Junar of Ramachap and food grains of southern belt, to all seventy five districts and force to import the same materials in costly price from outside. I feel shame to accept that even after 56 long years of so called independency many of my country’s districts are not connected by road and poor citizen must walk along the ups and downs of the hills to go from one part of the country to other parts even to fulfill simple requirements of governmental formalities.

The frequent landslides and other problems especially during rainy season which hamper the road transportation is mainly due to, the fact that we are forced to cut the slope during the road construction to maintain its required width.

Net work of Electrical Trains

The best solution to visualize the new Nepal is not to connect the districts by 4-6 lane wide high ways but to connect all the seventy five districts of the country with narrow gauge electrical train. This will utilize the available hydropower of the country and save billions of foreign currency which are used to buy fossil fuels from foreign countries. Further this will fulfill our requirements of transportation network essential for the country’s development. The technology is so well developed that it is not necessary to build wide and standard highway which forces us to cut the hill slope to high degree making the landslide and other natural disaster inevitable, to fulfill our transport network, which can be easily accomplished by network of electric train. In addition to this electrical train along the east-west highway will also save lot of money which can be used for other development process

Trolley buses

Similarly the use of trams and electrical buses in the major cosmopolitan cities like Katmandu, Pokhara, Biratnagar, birgung, Butal, Bhairava and many others will save our hard earned foreign currency which are used at present for buying fossil fuels like petroleum, diesel etc.

Rope Ways

Nepal being mountainous the transportation of any construction or day-to-day usable materials from one place to other is very difficult, costly and time consuming. The rope way which has huge potential in the country and very useful as well as practical also can be well developed by properly utilizing the hydropower of the country and can change the development scenario of the country to fit with the vision of new Nepal.

The only cable car of Manakamna has proved that if properly use, cable car can also play very important role in transportation sector, and also can be successful commercially also. There are many potential sites where cable car can be as successful as Manakamna. In new Nepal I see many cable cars all round the country connecting the important temples and tourist center like Muktinath, Gosaikunda, Pathibhara, Thorang, Pass etc.

Industry

The vision of new Nepal can not be achieved with out industrial revolution in the country. Industrial development of the country is very essential to develop our country fast to fulfill the basic requirement of the new-Nepal and the most important factor for the industrial growth is the easy availability of required energy in reasonable price. Without required energy you can not imagine of industrial growth in the country and without industrial growth you can not fulfill the vision of new Nepal.

Fortunately our country has huge potential of hydropower to fulfill the requirement of energy for fast and vast industrial growth to any scale. To day due to high price and unavailability of electricity many potential industry like cement factory, electrolysis, are not feasible in Nepal even though other requirement like raw materials and labor force are easily available in competitive price. Even the existing rubber factory is in problem simply because it can not depend on the energy supply of the NEA and forced to use high priced diesel generated energy to fulfill its requirement

Not only cement and rubber Industry many other industry like automobile industry, electrolysis of water to separate oxygen and hydrogen where the hydrogen can be used to develop fuel to cars, and oxygen for hospital, pesticide/fertilizer industry, canning industry especially where the available fruits like orange, apple lemon, Junar etc have limited market in its natural form due to various reasons can be easily developed provided the energy is available in cheep price.

To-day Nepal lacks industry not because it has no essential raw materials but because any industry becomes economically unfeasible due to high price of energy and compulsion of under table money in every step of our development. At present the government acts as a hurdle for any type of industrial development or any entrepreneurship and can be said without any hesitation that without bringing change in this attitude the vision of new Nepal is impossible. With the hope that the new government of Maoist will take necessary measurement to curb the rampant corruption through the development of due punishment culture to the corrupt people in the country, the development of hydropower will help for the industrial revolution in the country.

Fisheries

Fisheries development is another sector where the tailrace water of hydropower can be properly used and economic benefit can be obtained.

Agriculture

Agriculture is another sector, the development of which is essential to achieve the vision of new Nepal. Nepal being agricultural country and most of the population of the country being engaged in agriculture and its related activities, to imagine Nepal will develop without development of agriculture and its related sector will be foolishness. In this context the role of hydropower become very important to develop the agriculture sector. Irrigation is one of the important parameters for the development of agriculture sector that cannot be optimally developed without the energy being available at reasonable cost.

The government plan to invest heavily on irrigation scheme especially using the underground water through shallow as well as deep tube well scheme. Today most of the tube well scheme is being unproductive mainly due to the heavy tariff of electricity, especially after the removal of the subsidies in the shallow tube well scheme. At present government is continuing the subsidies in the surface as well as deep tube well scheme, but under great pressure from international donor agencies to remove the subsidies. By optimally using our available water resources for the generation of hydropower, the price of the energy can be brought to affordable rate, which will create such a situation where the subsidies from government will not be required for any type of irrigation scheme.

Cold storage and chilling house

The potentiality of chilling house and cold storage in Nepal is very high due to the transportation problems. To fulfill the aspiration of people, new Nepal need as many chilling house and cold storage as the cold drinks and wine shop are noticed to-day. To day due to high energy tariff few of the existing cold storage and chilling house are also not functioning properly and economically unviable. The unsuccessful stories of chilling house and cold storage are mainly due to high energy tariff and we must make the energy available in cheep and affordable price. This is possible if we start developing hydropower at the range of 70-100MW cumulatively in each districts.

Herbal Plants

Nepal is very rich in herbal plants and all types of medically important plants are available in the country. But unfortunately the Nepalese people are unable to use such available resources of the country which are exploited by few corrupt people. This is because the government lacks the proper planning to tap all these available resources and make the best use of these resources. The vision of new Nepal will not be successful with out using tall such naturally available resources of the country. To use all such herbal and other related plants we must have numbers of pharmaceutical industry in the country and that is possible provided we can supply the uninterrupted energy in affordable price. This is not possible with out developing our vastly available hydropower.

Replacement of Traditional Energy

It is a known fact that to day electricity cover only 3% of our total energy use and rest all are cover by wood, fossil fuel, cow dung and etc. Such use of energy in a country where the potentially for hydropower is huge is very ridiculous. Further the environmental effect by use of all these energy and its ill effect in the health of the population are also well known. In this context the new Nepal must replace all such use of traditional energy like wood, cow dung fossil fuel etc by clean energy so that the environmental ill effect as well as the health hazards are minimized. Such replacement is possible only if we changed our concept that Nepal can be rich by selling energy to India and start using our resources for our own use for the development of the Nepalese people.

Conclusion

In this short article I can not deal all the related matters in details. My stress is just to express that the new Nepal concept can not be achieved simply by formulating plan but require some drastic modification in the development concept. Hydropower is our resources and best use of these available resources for our own development is the only possible and feasible solution. So far country’s policy is prepared based on personal vested interest without giving any importance to the development of the people. Time has come now to change our development concept and start doing something seriously for the development of the country and its people.

All This is Fleeting: Sri Lanka and the Maoists

2009-05-26T17:59:00.001+05:45

(Courtesy: Dr. Thomas A. Marks)

When a victorious general was granted a “Triumph” in ancient Rome – a parade through the streets – the sources claim a man rode behind him in his chariot with the specific job of whispering, “All this is fleeting.”

So it must seem with Prachanda and his Maoists.

Indeed, “Fierce One” seemed so spooked by ongoing events in Sri Lanka that he scored an own-goal by bringing up the subject in the recent Kathmandu rally. There will be no such end for the Maoists, he railed, lest any be tempted to think that his band of not-so-merry men would go the way of the declawed Tigers.

Poor Prachanda – the photos of LTTE (Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam) supremo Prabhakaran's body are widely available on the net. Thus it seems he had been reminded that "all are mortal," which is the other phrase the man in the chariot is supposed to have been directed to say.

Antiquity aside, it is useful to draw some lessons for Nepal from the Sri Lankan case. I have spent considerable time in both and cover them in separate chapters of my recent book. In one sense, they are very different, in another much the same.

Dynamics of Sri Lankan Conflict

Democracies struggle in South Asia, where the holding of elections conceals a great deal that is profoundly undemocratic. In particular, parliamentary mechanisms often lead to lack of safeguards for minority positions and marginalization of entire communities.

In Sri Lanka, such a dynamic took the post-independence form of marginalization of the Tamil minority (17%) by the very large Sinhalese majority (80%). Though both communities in reality had further divisions, especially the Tamils (notably, between Sri Lanka and Indian Tamils), it was the need to define the identity of Sri Lanka as a state that set the two nations against each other.

Significantly, both before and during the Tamil upheaval, Sri Lanka faced Maoist upheavals. Both were led by the Janata Vimukthi Peramuna, JVP (People’s Liberation Front), 1971 and 1987-90, and had more of a class character (i.e., poor versus “them”). Even such a general description does not do justice to the complexity of Sri Lankan society that saw the same effort to harness local divisions, whatever they were, by the JVP.

In particular, in a characteristic shared with Nepal’s Maoist insurgency, the first JVP bid for power was driven by upheaval within the young. An agriculturally-based economy; limited alternative sectors unable to provide employment for a rapidly expanding population; an age-pyramid dominated by youth; an educational system teaching the wrong things (and generally in the wrong languages for the jobs available); strong caste influences that further narrowed opportunities; and a democracy which was neither transparent nor efficient; all served to make “liberation” or “revolution” an attractive prospect. The result was death and destruction.

Crushed, the JVP plotted its comeback, which was provided by Indian intervention. “Peacekeeping” to New Delhi, “invasion” to most Sri Lankans, the social explosion that shook the island led to a level of upheaval that would be familiar to Nepalese. With the Indian Peace Keeping Force (IPKF) locked in its own battle against the Tamil insurgents in the North and East, the Sri Lankans were able to focus on the Southern, terror-driven violence and finish it. The entire JVP leadership was eliminated, and the survivors joined legal politics – where their bizarre positions today make India’s Marxists appear almost rational.

Significantly, by the time the chastised Indians departed (after a thousand-plus dead and twice that wounded), LTTE had become a full-spectrum insurgency, complete with armor and artillery. Ultimately, it would field everything from aircraft to underwater demolitions teams to suicide squads in three dimensions (land, air, and sea). Large battles included an entire brigade camp (1,200-men) wiped out on the government side.

A post-9/11 ceasefire left LTTE as the de facto rulers of the Tamil-dominated Northern and Eastern Provinces. Yet LTTE leader Prabhakaran was simply unable to leave well enough alone. Just as the Nepali Maoists had their assassination and bombing command in the Kathmandu Valley during the 1996-2006 war), so LTTE had its equivalent. And just as the Maoist-directed YCL is encouraged to continue its depredations, so LTTE executed a campaign of terror in government-controlled areas. The main target was moderate Tamils, hundreds (literally) of whom were assassinated.

Enabling the LTTE effort were the same external actors one finds so dominant in Nepal – even some of the same countries – any number of which have now been told, in so many ways (some directly), that they are no longer welcome in Colombo.

How Did the Sri Lankans Win?

Colombo’s position on foreign intervention in its affairs highlights the key element which led to successful resolution of the present stage of conflict: a mobilization of national will. In this, one could argue that Sri Lanka engaged in a state version of the successful Nepali Maoist mass mobilization in the latter’s surge to power. Taking the analogy a step further, it could be argued that the “lost” decades for Colombo were occasioned by adopting a “Nepali government approach” – unfocused, under-resourced, and lacking mobilization and will.

Early on, 1983-87, the Sri Lankan approach was completely military, even as the 1987-90 counter-JVP effort utilized all elements of national power (with, to be sure, a very “big boy rules” mentality guiding the whole). Thereafter, a gradual but steady shift occurred in which Colombo, while understanding the root causes of the struggle, realized it would have to adopt a philosophy of total mobilization for the ultimate clash.

Why had it not done this previously? States invariably seek to fight limited wars until forced by circumstances to do otherwise. For insurgents, wars are always total. Similarly, internal wars have phases. What is an appropriate course of action at one point in time, say, 1983-87, is not necessarily the path to take in, say, 2006-2009.

In 2006, faced with an LTTE which had wiped out all rival insurgent groups (there were once at least three dozen) – as well as all moderate Tamil politicians it could liquidate – Colombo saw no recourse but renewed violence. The increasingly shrill efforts of external actors to push “peace” foundered on the reality that LTTE was already at war. It had used the latest “ceasefire” in exactly the manner it had done in the past, as a weapon to refit, regroup, and reposition its forces.

In this, LTTE was no different than the Nepali Maoists, who used ceasefires for similar purposes. As I have pointed out in recent articles, the only surprising element in “Prachandagate” is how many seem to have forgotten the earlier evidence of the same behavior. This can not surprise: The Maoists share with LTTE a worldview that sees “struggle” as the normal condition of mankind. Violence and nonviolence are but sides of the same coin. “Heads I win, tails you lose.”

To their credit, the Sri Lankan leadership saw through this strategy and turned the coin on its edge. Indeed, the superb effort at the top, of planning and motivation, was in many respects a family affair, with President Mahinda Rajapaksa relying upon his brothers – Gotabaya, Secretary of Defense, and Basil, special advisor. The three responded with their own “coin,” skillfully constructing a multifaceted effort.

The cutting edge was military, led by the increased professionalism of a very large, battle-hardened military led on the ground by General Sarath Fonseka. But it was built upon political and popular mobilization, combined with astute cultivation of foreign support beyond Sri Lanka’s normal, pro-Western allies.

For the Sri Lankans recognized that, when all was said and done, their Western supporters, whether states or INGOs, would see to their own designs and leave Colombo in the lurch. When this indeed turned out to be the case, Sri Lanka had constructed a position, built upon a network of alternative sources of arms and supplies (notably from China and Pakistan), which allowed it to finish the business.

The elimination of the LTTE counter-state was carried out systematically, despite an active, increasingly shrill campaign that sought outright invasion of the country – under the guise, to be sure, of “humanitarian intervention” a la the former Yugoslavia, with, apparently, a “Tamil Kosovo” to follow.

That the same approach was used by external actors to neutralize the Nepali state in the 1996-2006 period needs no highlighting. That the result looks rather more like the Balkans and rather less like a nation-state also needs no highlighting.

For the neo-colonialists, the very fact that Nepal experienced upheaval meant its old-order lacked legitimacy. Hence, went their logic, it had no right to defend itself.

Sri Lanka provides the same evidence of imperfection, as Sri Lankan politicians, pundits, and intellectuals are quick to point out. Still, they note further, they are Sri Lankan imperfections and will now have a Sri Lankan solution. Nepal remains yet a neo-colony, and there is no leadership in sight of the quality one sees in Colombo.

Road Ahead

Nevertheless, a great deal of effort is now being put into discussing what could go wrong in Sri Lanka. It seems something of a parlor game for the Western media, with the more liberal outlets outraged (the only word for it) that any small Asian country would have the gall to ignore the commands of the “usual suspects,” so used to issuing orders backed by threats of aid cut-offs and “war crimes trials.”

As Colombo continues to steer its own course, the threats have again begun to escalate. They are fruitless. Sri Lanka has committed to reconciliation, but it is unwilling to have the terms of its internal arrangements dictated to it.

What will matter, then, is sincerity. Whether the state can deliver upon its promises to its marginalized minority will become clear soon enough.

This is the state of play in Nepal, as well, with little sincerity in evidence on the part of the prime culprits in the current mess, the Maoists. Indeed, recent Maoist pronouncements do not bode well for timely or acceptable resolution.

Once again, having created a disaster, the Maoists have resorted to threats as their “solution.” They have stated that they will allow the processes of governance and constitution-writing to go forward – but only if they are given what they have demanded all along – the right to run roughshod over NA, as the last stumbling block in their ability to stage a slow-motion coup.

That threatening violence, if one does not get his way, is but violence camouflaged does not enter into Maoist calculations (or those of their external backers). Yet, in the shadow of Sri Lanka, with its carnage enroute to peace, the Maoists have been offered a chance to establish their bonafides.

They can either commit to peaceful politics, or they can choose to continue their sub-rosa violence (much of which is not particularly “sub”). They had eight months to place their cards on the table and proved themselves utterly incompetent at all save 3M: menace, mugging, and murder.

If the Maoists are sincere, it is time to disband the goon squads and engage in politics as per the plain definition of the word, the process whereby society decides and implements who gets what – rights, resources, privileges, and obligations. Politics pursued by “other means” is, as per Clausewitz, no longer politics but war.

History and geography have left Nepal a very imperfect state in search of a nation. As Sri Lanka has been given a second chance, so is this the case for Nepal. It has been given an opportunity to become a nation-state.

In this, the Maoists have a voice, but they must respect that of others. As for the Nepalese chattering classes, on the verge of trying their hand at the ultimate balancing act, coalition politics, they can draw another lesson from the ancients: Carpe Diem – seize the day.

MAOIST INSURGENCY: RETURN OF THE NIGHTMARE

2009-05-07T23:13:00.003+05:45

(Courtesy: Dr. Thomas A. Marks)

(Originally published in "India and Global Affairs [New Delhi], Apr-Jun 09," re-posted here with the Author's consent).

Dr. Thomas A. Marks is a political risk consultant based in Honolulu, Hawaii, who has authored a number of benchmark works on Maoist insurgency, to include his recent Maoist People’s War in Post-Vietnam Asia.

Maoist insurgency is back. People’s war, once thought to have ended with the Cold War, is alive and well in South Asia. Large parts of India are effectively “no-go” areas. Bangladeshi officers cite Maoism as a greater threat than violent radical Islamists. Sri Lanka, having twice decimated the Maoist JVP at considerable human cost, now has them in the ruling coalition, where their often-bizarre positions are a faithful replication of India’s own legal Maoist spectrum. And to the north, what was the world’s only official Hindu kingdom finds itself now ruled by a party which yet begins its meetings before pictures of Marx, Engels, Lenin, Stalin, and Mao (Nepalis all, cynics note).

Ironically, New Delhi can look to its own intervention for the Maoist victory in Nepal. It was South Bloc which gave heed to the legal left and, in return for the swing votes which allowed Congress to cling to power, effectively ceded control of Nepali policy to the Indian Marxists. The shift brought on by Marxist opposition to the nuclear pact with the US came too late to save Kathmandu, and the country is now a failed state, posing a far greater security threat than ever it did when it was convulsed by war.

Ironically, too, Maoist growth in the Subcontinent continues even as the last real threat elsewhere, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), has been decimated and driven into a survival posture. Marxist but not Maoist, FARC nevertheless used a potent version of people’s war as its revolutionary doctrine. Copied from a combination of FMLN (El Salvador) and Vietnamese manuals, it was only national mobilization under President Alvaro Uribe (2002-present) which reversed the tide.

Why this stunning reality in South Asia? Why now?

Brave New World

The answer to the first query is that South Asia has long had the perfect conditions for Maoist upheaval. To the second, that the age of globalism has exacerbated many of these conditions.

Indeed, it can be argued that the present global situation is “the perfect storm,” combining as it does elements of two past eras of carnage. The first was the profound, irrevocable upheaval of the Industrial Revolution, which gave Europe the so-called “Age of Revolution” and the first age of terrorism. The second was the economic, social, and political despair of the interim between the world wars, which produced the twin nightmares of Stalinism and Fascism and their stupefying cost to humanity.

That terrorism has returned to lash out against the Brave New World of globalism hardly needs mention. It only needs emphasis how sterile is the approach that seeks to gather individual characteristics of those who, say, blow themselves up and then generalizes to the whole. Quite the contrary, it is the context, married to organizational acumen and finesse, that taps individual particulars. Nowhere is this more evident than in the violent radical Islamist organizations, such as Hamas and Hezbollah.

It is the violent radical Islamists who are the modern manifestation of fascism (termed by some, Islamofascists), complete with an anti-Semitism that would make the early Hitler of Mein Kampf appear somehow inadequate in his virulence. It is the Maoists who are heirs to Stalinism. Indeed, South Asian communism is distinguished by its continued domination by the thought of one of history’s most loathsome figures, Stalin.

In “globalism,” what was often local is now all but invariably international. Eras of profound change produce winners and losers. Mao emerged from the death of the Chinese imperial system and the clash between two alternative views of its successor, the Republic of the Kuomintang (KMT) and the “People’s Republic” of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). By exploiting everything from economic-social-political dislocation to Japanese invasion, he was able to build a challenge capable in the end of seizing the world’s most populous country.

Inspired, self-proclaimed Maoist insurgencies emerged in the likes of Malaya, Thailand, the Philippines, Burma, Cambodia, India, Sri Lanka, Peru, and ultimately Nepal. Even communist but non-Maoist insurgencies recognized the efficacy of people’s war as strategy, and potent versions were seen in Vietnam, Laos, El Salvador, and Colombia. More often than not, linkages were established between the theaters of conflict, with China often directly involved in assisting its ideological partners.

For a time after the end of the Cold War, Maoism seemed a past nightmare. Globalism and the spectacular growth of challenges to the nation-state ensured that the heyday of people’s war was recreated in South Asia. Pronounced economic-social-political imperfections ensured that the 21st Century would see a new age of Maoist bloodshed, with ideologically inspired leaders mobilizing the alienated masses.

Nature of the Challenge

Maoism as a goal seeks to reorder society in a quest for social justice. There is no template as to how this reordering is to take place, except that it is to be Marxist-Leninist (communist). Theoretically a transitional dictatorship guiding socialism to achieve communal ownership of the means of production, in reality it has led only to would-be totalitarianism and attendant human carnage. Even China, where Mao Tse-tung invented the particular politico-military approach that is people’s war, has turned its back on “Maoist” ideology, which produced a tragedy conservatively estimated to have cost 80 million lives.

This is irrelevant to Maoists elsewhere. Arising in terribly flawed states such as Peru or Cambodia, Maoist insurgents seek a way out of the structural abyss by championing a triumph of the will.

Shining Path (Sendero Luminoso) saw the “Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution” of 1967-76 as a model for its future Peru. China saw it as a self-inflicted disaster that cost the lives of millions. The Khmer Rouge saw in their own “Year Zero” approach the Cambodian version of Mao’s “Great Leap Forward,” which latest research convincingly demonstrates to have cost between 30 and 50 million lives. In Cambodia, between one-fifth and one-third of the population perished.

Whatever the lack of a realistic goal, the means to achieve the end is manpower, mobilizing the masses in order to overwhelm the foe. The way, linking means to goal, is the strategy of people’s war. The mobilized masses are organized into a new state, a “counter-state,” to challenge the existing state.

In this mobilization, “all politics is local.” Leaders, normally drawn from marginalized elites – divorced either objectively or subjectively (in the mind) – look at the imperfections of the state and advance Maoism as the solution. Specifics need not be spelled out, since utopia is sufficient inspiration for followers, who seek redress of immediate grievances (as well as reinforcement of hopes and aspirations).

Any people’s war, then, is in reality myriad local wars, with “Maoism” serving only as the driver for leadership and committed cadres. Indoctrination of the so-called “grievance guerrillas” gives the effort greater cohesion.

Role of Violence

People’s war is a strategy for armed politics. The mistake is to think it is merely “war,” by which we normally mean action between armed forces. To the contrary, people’s war is very much like any electoral campaign – except violence ensures “the cards favor.”

Significantly, rebels such as the Maoists claim they are merely doing what the state itself has been doing all along. They assert there never has been “non-violent politics.” Rather, echoing Lenin, they label democratic politics practiced by the “old-order” but a façade for oppression. This oppression is carried out using the violence of the state through its armed component, the security forces, as well as the “structural violence” of poverty and injustice.

Thus the Maoists see themselves as engaged in a struggle for liberation, of self-defense even. Such a struggle will proceed along different but orchestrated lines of effort. Use of violence is but one line of effort. Within that line of effort, there are varied forms of violence, from assassinations to main force attacks – the large actions that seek to battle units of the armed forces on even terms.

Each type of violence – terror, guerrilla warfare, main force warfare, war of position (i.e., liberated areas) – may be thought of as a campaign, comprised of numerous discrete acts separate in time and space yet connected in a unity of action designed to achieve a goal. We can speak, for instance, of the campaign of terror that the Maoists use to eliminate all who oppose them in local areas, whether individuals or police. Who can forget those famous photos of the mutilated individuals in Nepal, especially teachers, their limbs hacked, their bodies hanging from poles?

Yet such terror occurs for a reason: to clear the space for political action, to eliminate competitors. This is why legal political activists are normally particular targets. They compete to mobilize the same target audience as the Maoists. Such rivals must be driven out so that the Maoist cadres have uncontested access to the masses. This clears the way for insurgent political mobilization.

Of course, such methods are anathema, even as certain portions of the party platform are attractive. It is for this reason that the Maoists sponsor a multitude of front organizations, the wide variety, for instance, of ethnic and community rights organizations one sees from the Philippines to Nepal to India. On the surface, they are not Maoist, but in reality fronts are controlled by the Maoists. Student, labor, and human rights organizations are normally prominent in this respect.

Such control need not be direct. Fronts can present themselves as independent, even as they are being used to enhance Maoist strength. Lenin called those who unwittingly join such fronts, thinking they are acting on their own, “useful idiots.”

Even as this goes on inside the country, the Maoists work outside. States tend to focus upon the tangible links. Much more important is the information campaign of the insurgents, designed to present their movement as almost benign. As states make mistakes, such as seen in instances of indiscipline when military units are deployed, these are exploited to claim the state itself is the problem, terror as but a natural, defensive component of the solution.

For a Maoist movement, the goal is always power. They must have power, because their goal is to refashion society. They are not seeking reintegration. That would be to accept the structure that exists and to play by that structure’s rules.

Quite vocally, they reject the legitimacy of that structure and its rules. That is why they are adamant that there must be a remaking of society.

Have they worked out the details of what this new society will look like? Of course not. That is the beauty of being the political challenger. Today’s realities can be opposed with tomorrow’s promises.

This is what politicians always do, even those who run “on my record.” The danger of left-wing ideologues, such as the Maoists, is that their worldview dramatically constrains their view of possibilities.

They tend to think of fantasies, such as “self-reliance” and “independence,” as ends that can be achieved if only “will” is harnessed. It was just such fantasies, implemented through violence, that gave us the astonishing crimes of the past century – crimes, it must be noted, the Maoists deny occurred.

India’s Need for Enhanced Approach

India’s approach to the Maoists in South Asia, whether internal or elsewhere, has been consistently misguided, improperly inspired and organized, and wholly tactical.

Internally, there has been a failure to take the threat seriously. The conceptualization of the Maoists as having a military and a political wing quite misses the reality of an armed political party advancing on five lines of effort – political (mass mobilization), allies (creating fronts), violence (of various types, not all present but interlocking when such is the case), political warfare (using nonviolent actions, such as subversion, to make violence more effective), and international (which can be decisive).

The inability or unwillingness of the center to coordinate an inter-state response allows the unified Maoist challenge to play the seams between state forces. Such assistance as New Delhi has provided has been tactical. Calling an individual and small unit tactical center for police “counterinsurgency training” highlights the point. Counterinsurgency is a strategic category. There are no “counterinsurgency tactics,” only tactics applied appropriately in support of correct strategy and operational art.

Externally, India has erred in thinking the Maoists are but a version of the Northeast ethnic insurgents and thus can be “bought.” Nepal offers the best example to the contrary.

There, the Maoists first used the monarchy as their foil, as a surrogate for what they claimed was its role in the old-order. If the “feudal monarchy” is swept away, they endlessly repeated, all would be right with Nepal. In this, they certainly were assisted by the tragic circumstances which placed the then-incumbent, Gyanendra, on the throne. Similarly, they were assisted by his mistakes in maneuvering through the maze of Nepali politics.

A number of elements figured into their calculations. First, as the hegemonic power in an unstable subcontinent, India wanted restoration of order. This was necessary for precisely the reasons stability is desired in Sri Lanka. Disorder produces refugees, unleashes intra-Indian passions, transfers elements of the conflict to Indian soil, and sucks New Delhi into foreign policy nastiness. Second, having opted for order, India played a hand well known to its smaller neighbors: intervention. The only question was how to intervene.

Here, there are several schools of thought. My past work in Sri Lanka has led to my being less than charitable as to Indian motives. In the Sri Lankan case, New Delhi was into everything from supporting terrorism to running covert ops in a friendly, neighboring democracy. Only when the Frankenstein it helped to create, LTTE, turned on its former benefactor did logic and morality reassert themselves in New Delhi’s policy.

In this case, in Nepal, it is perhaps too early to speak in such terms. What we know at the moment is that is that the weak position of the coalition government in New Delhi, combined with its normal “Great Game” psychology and the eagerness of certain Indian personalities, especially on the left, to expand their own role and spheres of involvement, led to a policy shift that supported SPAM (the Seven Party Alliance and the Maoists).

It was disappointing and tragic that the SPA and the Palace could not have a meeting of minds. Parliamentary democracy should have been the ultimate bulwark against the Maoist challenge, but the very nature of Nepali parliamentary democracy, with its corruption and ineptitude, led to its marginalization. The increasingly bitter split between SPA and the king became all but inevitable in such circumstances, but personalities also played a central role, as they do in all that occurs in Nepal.

It seems equally clear that India, as it did previously in Sri Lanka, went into the present endeavor quite misinformed by its alleged experts, not to mention its intelligence organs, and that it was ignorant as to the actual nature of the Maoists – no matter the efforts of those same personalities just mentioned to claim how wise, thoughtful, and caring Prachanda and other members of the Maoists leadership were.

In once again misreading the situation in a neighboring state, India now seeks a “soft landing.” To get one, New Delhi’s strategy has been to facilitate in Nepal creation of a “West Bengal” or a “Kerala” – states where the tamed Indian left challenges and even rules (sometimes, in the case of the latter), where it continues with its nasty verbiage and bizarre worldview, but where it must respond to the realities of power and hence stay within the lanes on the national political highway.

What New Delhi has overlooked is that such realities occur in India only because of the capacity of the national state to force compliance. Subtract the Indian military, paramilitary, and police forces from the equation, and India would be anarchy. Not surprisingly, that is the very term being used by many to describe the situation in Nepal.
This has its own implications for India’s security and for its struggle against the growing strength of the Indian Maoists. What Nepal itself is facing is the “state within a state” as seen in Palestine with Hamas and Lebanon with Hezbollah. Whether events play themselves out as we are seeing even now in the Middle East depends quite upon what the Maoists are actually up to.

Hamas and Hezbollah have behaved as the Nepali Maoists seem determined to behave, to participate in “the system” only to use it for their own ends. Those “ends,” obviously, have now made life even worse for the population.

The Way Ahead

What Nepal as a state never understood was that it faced an armed political campaign. This means – a lesson for India -- that democracy, no matter how messy, accompanied by good governance and transparency, should be at the heart of any response to the Maoists, with the security forces providing the shield.

Nepali parliamentary democracy proved incapable of using mobilization of democratic capacity to defend itself. It did not do what the Thai, the Filipinos, the Peruvians, and the Sri Lankans (against the JVP, twice) did to defeat their Maoists. They brought reform to imperfect systems and made them better. They remain imperfect, but so are all systems. And they are not the vicious, man-eating systems as desired by the left-wing, of which the Maoists are the premier representatives.

It should be obvious that the claim that there is “no military solution” to insurgency is simply a canard. Armed capacity enables the campaign of reform, because armed capacity is what enables the challenge to the old-order.

In circumstances such as India (or Nepal earlier), security forces are not committed simply to defend the status quo. They must be committed to defend transformation. That transformation, though, must look rather more like what can be seen in India as it advances toward economic, social, and political modernity – and a lot less like Mao’s China.

The Washington Times Editorial - Nepal's Maoists Double Cross

2009-05-07T23:06:00.003+05:45

The video clip referred to in the Washington Times editorial may located at the following URL:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CL-OuByKFJQ&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Emyrepublica%2Ecom%2Fportal%2F&feature=player_embedded

Video of Pushpa Kamal Dahal (Prachanda) telling his Maoists how they plan to install a one party communist republic in Nepal (and how they've used the international community as "useful idiots").

EDITORIAL: Nepal's Maoist double-cross

http://washingtontimes.com/news/2009/may/07/nepals-maoist-double-cross/

So the chairman of Nepal's Maoist radicals brags that he and his fellow-travelers tricked United Nations officials and admits that the 2006 peace deal was a sham - and gets caught on videotape doing it. The video of the recently resigned Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal, also known as Prachanda, was shot in January 2008 and just surfaced.

Revealingly, he instructs his fellow communists not to be fooled by the compromises struck with Nepal's democratic government. Seizing total power, he makes clear, remains the communist goal.

The latest crisis in Nepal is a useful case study in communist duplicity and instructive for those who believe that the path to peace with guerillas is cutting deals with them. The Unified Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) joined Nepal's government after a decade-long insurgency that left more than 12,000 dead. Under terms of the 2006 Comprehensive Peace Agreement, the Maoists agreed, among other things, to cut the size of their force in half, place their weapons under U.N. supervision and participate peacefully in the political process. In the 2008 elections, the Maoists emerged as the largest party in parliament with 30 percent of the vote, and Prachanda was named prime minister.

But the communists didn't consider the war really ended. The Maoists steadily maneuvered to increase their power with a view toward implementing their revolutionary agenda.

The latest step was an attempt to remove Nepal Army Chief Gen. Rookmangud Katawal, who had resisted Maoist demands to integrate their guerrilla army into the national force. He maintained that the "former" guerrillas are brainwashed fanatics seeking to seize control of the army. He's got a point.

Nepal's President Ram Baran Yadav blocked Prachanda's move to sack Gen. Katawal. Prachandra resigned in protest. Nepal's Supreme Court now has the case.

Prachanda says it is a question of civilian control of the military. That's rich. Meanwhile communist thugs are taking to the streets in coordinated demonstrations calling for further intervention from the U.N.

The video of a relaxed Prachanda addressing his party faithful exposed the Maoists' cynical manipulation of the political system. In true communist spirit, Prachanda said that the compromises struck with the government were only tactical expediencies, and that the "bidroha," or rebellion, was still on. He joked about how they duped the United Nations Mission in Nepal (UNMIN) into thinking they had 35,000 fighters when in fact they only had 7,000 to 8,000, which allowed them to swell their ranks to 20,000 while claiming to be demilitarizing. And he confirmed Gen. Katawal's suspicions by saying it would take only a small number of his guerrillas to establish "complete Maoist control" of the Nepal Army.

He added that they had not turned over their weapons as required and that relief money earmarked for the victims of the civil war would be diverted to party coffers. "You and I know the truth," he slyly told his comrades, "but why should we tell it to others?"

In an unguarded moment, Prachanda revealed he is still a terrorist at heart and those who make deals with him are dupes. "Why would we abide by [the peace deal] after we win?" he said on the tape. "Why would we follow it when we have the upper hand?"

The situation in Nepal and Pakistan's Swat Valley illustrate the risks in bargaining with extremists, who do not change their goals, only their methods. The lesson is important when contrasted to Sri Lanka and Colombia, where we have seen the value of taking the fight to insurgents. U.S. deal makers should understand that there is more than one way to lose a guerrilla war. Sometimes it happens with the stroke of a pen.

Holding the Preachers of Accountability, Accountable for their Actions - The UN's Failure in Nepal

2009-05-05T19:13:00.005+05:45

In light of the evidence caught on video, readers are encouraged to review the chronology of events captured in the postings below.

The question that every Nepali must ask themselves is who we should hold accountable for the callous manner in which the UNMIN (United Nations Mission in Nepal) handled the arms (and armies) verification process?

As was the case in East Timor, Ian Martin parachuted in and out of Nepal. But those who will bear the consequences of Martin’s (and the UN’s) willingness to play the role of a (most) “useful idiot,” remain in-country.

If the United Nations as an institution fails to hold its personnel accountable, then Nepalis need to hold Ban Ki Moon and the UN hierarchy accountable for the UN’s complete failure in executing its mandate in Nepal.

February 25, 2007
Summary of Declared (by State) vs. Inventoried (by UNMIN), Weapon Counts
http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2007/02/symmary-of-declared-by-state-vs.html

February 25, 2007
Discrepancies in Maoist Weapons Inventoried by UNMIN – Do the Math
http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2007/02/discrepancies-in-maoist-weapons.html

March 01, 2007
The UN and Maoist Arms Controversy: Overkill or Negligence?
http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2007/02/un-and-maoist-arms-controversy-overkill.html

March 01, 2007
UN Fast Losing Credibility in Nepal
http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2007/03/un-fast-losing-credibility-in-nepal.html

June 18, 2007
UNMIN Clarifies its Role but Just in Time to be Humiliated by the Maoists
http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2007/06/unmin-clarifies-its-role-but-just-in.html

July 04, 2007
UNMIN's Arms Verification Process in Nepal - More Timely Information and Transparency Needed
http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2007/07/unmin-in-over-its-head-in-nepal-arms.html

July 15, 2007
The UN's (UNMIN) Involvement in Nepal's Peace Process: A turning point or another fiasco in the making?
http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2007/07/uns-unmin-involvement-in-nepals-peace.html

July 17, 2007
UNMIN's July 16 Press Release and Subsequent Q&A Disaster
http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2007/07/unmins-july-16-press-release-and.html

July 19, 2007
UNMIN's "Consulting" Mentality Not Conducive to Nepal's "Stakeholder" Needs
http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2007/07/unmins-consulting-mentality-not.html

September 21, 2007
What has UNMIN Accomplished in Nepal?
http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2007/09/what-has-unmin-accomplished-in-nepal.html

November 01, 2007
What UNMIN Should Do to Manage Nepal's Peace Process
http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2007/11/courtesy-krishna-hari-pushkar-un-is.html

November 26, 2007
UNMIN in Need of Immediate Reform
http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2007/11/unmin-in-need-of-immediate-reform.html

December, 2007
Constructive Feedback for Ian Martin - Time for a change in UNMIN's Leadership
http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2007/12/constructive-feedback-for-ian-martin.html

February 04, 2008
Deficient UNMIN
http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2008/02/deficient-unmin.html

February 07, 2008
UNMIN's (Matthew Kahane's) Observations Completely Legitimate; India's Guilt-Ridden Reaction, Nonsense
http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2008/02/unmins-matthew-kahanes-observations.html

Prachanda's Admission Caught on Tape...

2009-05-05T18:21:00.004+05:45

For all the Maoist apologists, "civil society" politicians and those who commended the United Nations on a job well done in Nepal, the following video is a MUST SEE.

Maoist Leader Admits Making an Ass out of UNMIN and the International Community.

In light of the evidence caught on tape, readers are encouraged to review the chronology of events captured in the postings below. The question that every Nepali must ask themselves is who we should hold accountable for the eggregious

Federalism Will Hinder Optimal Exploitation of Water Resources

2009-05-01T18:16:00.001+05:45

(Courtesy: Ratna Sansar Shrestha)

For this scribe “People’s Movement II” is “Rhododendron Revolution” of 2006 which not only paved path for the abolition of much maligned monarchy, subsequent to Royal Palace massacre – reportedly committed by the then Crown Prince who is alleged to have committed suicide after committing heinous crime of regicide (also patricide), matricide, fratricide (both bother and sister) and also killing off an uncle and couple of aunts (however, most of the people still do not believe this “yarn” – which denigrated royalties (mainly the last “monarch” of Nepal and his son) in the eyes of the “loyal subjects” of Nepal, in 2001 June, but also afforded an opportunity for the people of Nepal to write a constitution of their own – through the elected Constituent Assembly. The assembly is supposed to decide the form and content of the constitution and also the structure of the state as to whether federal or unitary. However, the overzealous people in the commission writing Interim Constitution went out of way to declare that Nepal will be a federal state; preempting the people’s representatives in the assembly from deliberating about it and arriving at a well thought through decision. Now it has become a contentious issue as to whether spinning off of Nepal into an indeterminate number of provinces under federal structure is really a good idea. Here an attempt is being made to analyze how will federalism affect optimal exploitation of water resources.

Water Resource – Unique Natural Resource

Optimal exploitation of most of the natural resources can be done locally. They can benefit by cultivating land, harvesting it, collecting herbs, living off forest or extracting minerals. But water resource is a different kind of natural resource and things are not that simple with its exploitation. Local inhabitants can benefit, for example, by building micro hydropower project (less than 100 kW) or from water based tourism like rafting. But exploitation at a larger scale to benefit from scale economy results in different set of additionalities and externalities.

Construction of a run-of-the-river (RoR) hydropower at a specific site deprives upper riparian populace from using the river water for consumptive uses (i.e. irrigation) as any reduction in the quantum of water will result in decrease in electricity generation and in turn downsizing the revenue stream. Similarly, a patch of the river will become dewatered as water will be diverted from the river into powerhouse through a network of canal/tunnel and eventually penstock pipe by building intake. The people dependent on this patch of river will face severe water scarcity – amply demonstrated by the dewatered area in Marshyangdi River by the highway to Pokahra. If the users of electricity come from a different province, the people adversely impacted as such will never agree to construction of implementation of hydropower plant in their province resulting in failure to generate electricity at optimum level.

Reservoir Project

Contrasted with RoR project, a storage project will entail building a reservoir resulting in inundation/submergence of large tracts of fertile agricultural land, forest and even extant infrastructure and will also displace the inhabitants. Daily pondage project also causes similar adverse impact, by a lesser magnitude, though. In this scenario, people of the province set to lose their land and to get displaced will not be too eager to build a project if the electricity is to be used in another province. Moreover, storage project also generates downstream benefit in terms of augmented flow which benefits the lower riparian people by making water available for water supply, irrigation, industrial use, improvement of watershed and they can also use the same for water sports based tourism and navigation. In this backdrop people in upper riparian province will have no reason to agree to build such a project, thus scuttling the prospect of implementation of a multipurpose project, but for federal structure.

Resettlement of people displaced by a multipurpose project will also become problematic as there is scarcity of good land in the hills where such projects could be sited while the resettlement in the area where necessary land is available will not be allowed for reasons of disturbing ethnic balance. Tharus in western Terai are already objecting to the resettlement plan for people to be displaced by West Seti project. After formation of separate provinces, the ensuing tussle will take the form of agitation as to why should upper riparian province lose land and its people to electricity for some far off city.

Irrigation and Flood Control

Nepal has 3.97 million hectares of cultivated land (mostly in Terai) and only 0.5 million hectares (only 12.6%) has some irrigation (mostly during rainy season). Cultivation of multiple crops in a year – imperative to ensure food security in the country (including high value cash crop that will make the farmers there prosperous) – requires massive irrigation during dry season which is possible only by building a reservoir in the hills that will store water during the rainy season (about 4 months in year) for irrigation during other 8 months. Building reservoirs as such will also control flood in the river’s flood plain in the Terai. But such a scheme will be precluded after splitting the country into federal structure for reasons explained above, especially if Terai is to become a separate province.

Electricity

Suppose it is decided to have 5 provinces in the lines of current development regions, then western development region will be generating most of hydropower (over 329 MW), using only about half of its generation capacity, while eastern region will be consuming a lot more than what it generates (under 14 MW). Central development region will consume a little more than it generates (275 MW). Under federal structure this type of happy sharing will not be possible. Simple issue like pricing can spin out of control and provinces with more generation capacity can shut off power if the price is not right.

Dispute over water resource

What is happening in India should be an eye opener for us in Nepal about to cross the threshold into federalism. There is dispute between Punjab and Haryana over Yamuna Sutlej Link canal. A clutch of states are fighting over Narmada and Tamil Nadu and Karnataka do not see eye to eye on Cauvery. All this is impeding optimal exploitation of water resource in India, although she has adopted federal structure due to her huge land mass.

Negotiating power

From Koshi through Gandaki, Tanakpur and Mahakali treaties Nepal has ended up getting raw deals. These things took place before Nepal went federal. After implementing federalism, each province will be squabbling with other province/s and Nepal’s negotiation capacity will be further weakened vis-à-vis India and the nightmare of a “monkey” from abroad settling dispute between two “cats” over sharing of a bread of loaf (water resource) and monkey ending up eating the bread bite by bite will become a reality. Merely this should persuade patriotic Nepali people from breaking up Nepal into several provinces real.

Conclusion

Implementing water resource projects in a federal structure will become difficult/daunting task due to competing demands over water and clashing aspirations of each province and several provinces. The complications will get compounded due to the convention of demarcating provinces by using rivers as the boundary. This will result in diametrically opposite aspiration of one province with that of the province on the other side of the river.

In view of this, and also due to the fact that Nepal is as small or smaller than a reasonable sized province of India and most federal nations, we need to tread cautiously before going for federal structure. As far as water resource is concerned, splitting the country in haste will provide us ample opportunity to repent at leisure.

(A shorter version of this writing was published in the Nepali Times # 449 (1-7 May 2009).

Strategic intent

2009-04-29T19:00:00.002+05:45

(Courtesy: Dr. Hari Bansha Dulal)

Annie Lowrey of Foreign Policy, the award-winning magazine of global politics, economics, and ideas founded by Samuel Huntington and Warren Demian Manshel lists Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s government as one of the five governments worldwide that deserves to fail. One of the major charges against him is that he has been unable to maintain political stability and contain violence. Lowrey asserts, “Prachanda must maintain political stability and avoid any violence at all costs – or Nepal risks catastrophe.”

Lowrey correctly identifies what needs to be done in order to avert catastrophe, which in my view is not that difficult, but whether or not Prime Minister Dahal is doing enough to maintain political stability and contain violence is the most important question. Is Lowrey overreacting? No! Somalia and Afghanistan are excellent examples that showcase what political instability and violence can do to a nation.

Some of us think that political instability and violence are part of a package that a nation trying to take a giant leap has to live with for a while. But how long should that period be allowed to exist? The shorter, the better. And, it really depends upon the ability of the political leadership of the country in question to understand what political instability and violence can do to the overall economy and social fabric. For example, in poor landlocked Botswana, a unique form of democracy combining British parliamentary ideas with African traditions has been functioning well since the 1960s. A free press and a lively political system have developed. One of the many reasons why Botswana is a functional democracy in a largely dysfunctional continent is because the statesmen that took over were mindful of the importance of political stability and law and order in the country. On the contrary, seemingly endless ethnic conflicts in Sudan, Rwanda, Burundi, Nigeria, Chad, Angola, Ethiopia, and the Congo have cost many millions and made these countries highly unstable. One of the major reasons behind political instability in these countries is that the politicians deliberately invoke "ethnic action and nationalism", for ulterior motives, to achieve political and economic objectives. When that happens conflict takes shape of a vicious circle with no end in sight making political instability a norm rather than an exception.

We have started to see similar signs in Nepal too. While lawlessness continues, politicians talk as if a peaceful democratic transition can be taken for granted. But it cannot. Failure to combat lawlessness and instability undermines a country´s stock of ´social´ capital - that is, the relations of inter-group solidarity and cohesion which allow negotiation, compromise, and agreement between opposing factions. In Nepal, the consequence of the failure to stem the vortex of violence and lawlessness is that the country is fragmenting into an archipelago of competing power factions. Unless these centrifugal forces are contained, the country will drift further and further from a social compact.

The question, however, in the case of Nepal is whether or not Dahal is interested in maintaining political stability and containing violence? If the answer is yes, why is political instability and violence increasing with each passing day?

Anyone following Nepali politics closely knows very well that the Maoists want more political violence and chaos—not less. If you look at the Maoists movement, it becomes evident that as the frequency and magnitude of their violent activities increased, so did their level of recognition and their domination over the existing political parties and the state got greater. For the Maoists, violence pays and as long as they benefit politically from it, they are not going to abandon violence. It’s a no-brainer. The chief ideologue of the Maoist movement, Baburam Bhattarai, has openly admitted that violence and chaos benefits his party politically. If violence did not matter and benefit them politically, they would not have formed the Young Communist League (YCL).

Unlike visionary statesmen such as Jawaharlal Nehru and Nelson Mandela, who followed acts of destruction with greater acts of construction, Nepali Maoists ideologues’ quench for destruction seems to have no boundary. Nehru and Mandela fought tirelessly against oppression and injustices, but after coming to power, they spent many years preserving the systems that their predecessors had put in place. Once in power, Mandela, who had approved radical and violent resistance to apartheid, reached out to White’s to create a multicultural South Africa. Maybe, it is absurd to compare Bhattarai – who thinks destruction alone will pave the way for construction – with Nehru, who preserved existing institutions, which he rightly thought was necessary to build a modern democratic state. The point I am trying to make here is that people without violent streaks have proved to be more constructive in world history. If destruction was the only way towards construction, Somalia and Afghanistan by now would have been the most prosperous state on the face of this earth.

It is time that we, Nepalis, realize that putting too much faith on politicians will only result in disappointment. The moderates within the society need to come out before it is too late. We need to force the state to address the genuine grievances of ethnic minorities and maintain law and order. It is not the ordinary Nepali citizens who are blocking the emancipation of ethnic groups. It is the ruling coalition’s largest partner which is not able to fulfill the promises that it made on its way to get where they are today. Why should an ordinary Nepali struggling to remain afloat pay the price for someone else’s wayward political ambitions?

(This piece was originally published at the following URL: http://www.myrepublica.com/portal/?action=news_details&news_id=4320. It is re-posted here with the author's consent)

India Halts Power Supply Deal – No Wonder!

2009-04-28T18:32:00.003+05:45

(Courtesy: Ratna Sansar Shrestha)

The following was reported by myrepublica.com on 24th April:

"KATHMANDU, April 24: The action initiated by the Maoist-led government against army chief General Rookmangud Katawal and the polarized views of the political parties on the issue have now affected the power import deal between Nepal and India.The Indian government on Thursday put on hold the agreement to supply 30 MW power to Nepal just two days before it was supposed to be signed."We had finalized everything from our side. But the agreement has now been put on hold," a Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) official told this daily. The source informed that as per the request of the Bihar Board, a letter requesting government of India´s approval on the agreement was sent to the Ministry of External Affairs in New Delhi through the Indian embassy in Kathmandu on April 22. However, the Ministry did not send a consent to the request.A week ago, the NEA had forwarded a memorandum of understanding to the Power Board of Bihar to import the additional 30 MW of electricity at the rate of IRs 4.79 per unit for a period of two months.“Both sides had settled all issues and conditions for the import,” the source added.The Power Trading Corporation (PTC) of India was making necessary arrangements for the import to Nepal via Ramnagar in Bihar.The development comes amid reports that the Indian government has been inserting pressure on the Maoist-led government in Nepal against the dismissal of the army chief.Indian ambassador to Nepal Rakesh Sood on Thursday flew to New Delhi, canceling all appointments here, to brief the South Block on the ´current developments´ in Nepal."

However, it will take a while for it to dawn on most of our hydrocracy (bureaucracy, politicos, intelligentsia, media persons, business community, bankers involved in the hydropower sector) that export of power to Nepal is an additional weapon in Indian arsenal for her against Nepal (as is the trade and transit) to ensure that Nepal toes the line, they want her to. I dare to trust that people in Nepal haven’t forgotten (although “people” are famed to have very short memory) about the trade embargo and transit blockade that India imposed on Nepal in late 80’s leading to “people’s movement I”. What ensued is in the pages of history obviating repetition here.

In the same vein, when I read about Nepal’s plan to import 500 MW from India, while I was vacationing in Vientiane with my brand new granddaughter, I had tears in my eyes trying to stop myself from laughing uncontrollably for quite a while. This was exactly what I was worried about – India using “power” (electric) to have Nepal dance to their tunes (according to their caprices). Besides, I felt sad and also felt like smiling (simultaneously!) at the tragicomic situation, after reading that PTC has offered a “generous” rate of INR 3 while Nepal is set to export at NPR 3 – offering a handsome markup of 60% straight (how magnanimous we are!). Eventually they will be importing from Nepal at Rs 3 and export the same to us at Rs 4.80 – reinforcing the firmly held belief in Indian politicos and bureaucracy that Nepali people are nice and, therefore, dumb (except for those who sell their souls for “a few silvers”).

An interesting thing about the “halt” is that it is Ministry of External Affairs in New Delhi that has thrown wrench in the works. It is surprising that simple export of power to Nepal requires approval of Ministry of External Affairs in New Delhi. However, hydrocracy of Nepal deems export of power normal trade (simply trading in “electron”) and they proclaim that exporting power does not have anything to do with water resources (even Supreme Court of Nepal has delivered a verdict in this line in the case of west Seti. When reference is being made to west Seti, it needs to be remembered that Nepal wasn’t importing 30 MW dedicated power from a specific project. However, west Seti it is dedicated export oriented project. What is more galling is that west Seti generates augmented flow of 90 m3/s which ends up benefiting farmers in India (can irrigate 270,000 ha land for non paddy cultivation), but the deal, even from this perspective was deemed not sharing of water resources.

This also calls on us to look at the other side of this very coin (export of power to India). Intransigent people (including those who would like to replicate Bhutan model in Nepal) dream of having India “jump” at our bidding by exporting power to her as she will be dependent on “us” for substantial amount of power from large plants – up to 10,000 MW from Karnali (and making Nepal "immensely" rich). I have pointed out the fallacy behind this belief in my article published in Nepali Times (# 314, 8-14 September, 2006) as “India is uncomfortable being dependent on an independent Nepal on such a scale. The comfort level would have gone up significantly if the security of such a project is to be guaranteed by the Indian Army.” With regard to Bhutan, being a protectorate of India, India does not feel uncomfortable being dependent on her. I hope I don’t need to overemphasize it here by saying that Indians would hate to lose sleep by having to wonder when someone in Nepal is going to switch off power from plants in Nepal exporting to India (exactly the reverse of what they have just done to Nepal suffering from chronic load shedding). In view of this, the idea of dedicated export oriented power plants in Nepal for India will never work as long as Nepal will fail to graciously accept Indian security arrangement of such plants in Nepal. I have gone on to opine in that article that “But Nepali people are famous for their “intransigence” in this matter” (Thank God!). I would like to believe that I am not off mark in this matter

Before concluding, I would like to repeat, ad nauseoum (since I have been repeating this over and over again) that Nepal’s best interest will be best served by ensuring energy security and being self reliant in the matters of energy – from our own water resource.

I would like to close here by reiterating that Indian interest in Nepal’s hydropower is just a façade to capture water belonging to Nepal – we can find abundant examples in Koshi, Gandaki and Mahakali treaties. My belief as such has been confirmed by current union water resources minister of India Mr. Saif Uddin Soz (no less a person) who has been frank and honest in admitting, with Navin Singh Khadka, BBC Nepali Service, 12 September 2008 that “Our main interest is flood control and irrigation. Those are our first and second priority. If we get hydroelectricity as by product, that will be a bonus for us.” I pray to god almighty that he gets elected once more and ascends the same ministerial berth in Delhi.

Tharuwat Joint Struggle Committee (TJSC) - Press meeting of April 17th, 2009

2009-04-28T03:46:00.002+05:45

(Courtesy: Tharuwat Joint Struggle Committee (TJSC))

Tharus, the indigenous habitants of Terai-Tharuwat had been reassured on March 14th by the Prime Minister, Puspa Kamal Dahal that the Winter Session of the Legislature-Parliament would conclude by repealing and amending various acts and laws infringing the dignity and fundamental rights of the Tharus in the Interim Constitution, thereby making provisions for their self determination. Tharuwat movement escalated from March 2nd to 14th 2009, against the existing, repressive government, which passed the ordinance of enforced inclusion of 92 indigenous peoples living in the Terai within the Madeshi category. The movement heightened to a peak, when TJSC blockaded the Terai to a virtual standstill for 13 days, which literally paralyzed the country. This was in retaliation to the government’s undemocratic action against the political issues raised by the Tharus, infringing their fundamental rights. On behalf of the Government of Nepal, the Minister for Peace and Reconstruction, Janardhan Sharma had concluded a six point agreement with Tharuwat Sangharsha Samiti (TJSC). However, contrary to the signed agreement, the Government of Nepal has violated the terms and conditions agreed upon, between the two parties. TJSC has resumed its second round of protest, objecting the ordinances, bills, acts and amendments against the fundamental rights of the indigenous peoples of Nepal.

Violation of terms

1) The Nepal government had agreed to revoke the ordinance of enforcement inclusion in the Madeshi category by explicitly eliminating the terminology “Madesh” in the Interim Constitution and reinstatement of the word “Terai”. The Interim Constitution would thereby recognize the inhabitation of the Adhibasi Janajati (indigenous) – Tharus, other Adhibasi Janajatis, Dalits, Muslims, Madeshis and other minorities and adopt / adapt provisions to ensure the equal rights to their self determination without discrimination.

2) Since Article 21 of the Interim Constitution makes comprehensive provision for proportionate representation by % in ratio to population distribution, thus securing social inclusion in all organs of government services and offices, the conflicting ratio of 55% - 45% is illogical and unconstitutional. The objection to this discriminatory ratio distribution not only marginalizes the participation of the Adhibasi Janajati – Tharus, Adhibasi Janajatis, Dalits, Muslims and Madeshis but the Reformed Bill incites conflicting interests without an acceptable formula and rule of law that allows an amicable co-existence of the above mentioned identities. The Tharu movement had demanded the implementation of the provisions for separate quota from the Madeshi category to fulfill their aspiration for separate independent identity. This would ensure them opportunities in various public services, to develop and empower the potential of the Tharus, who have been incessantly victimized by the state in oppressing, discriminating and exploiting them; whereby the State has been successful in marginalizing the Tharus from actively participating in the reconstruction of the State.

This transparent decision by the present government, headed by Puspa Kamal Dahal, confirms the Brahminbadi autocracy in oppressing the justifiable demands of the inalienable rights of the Adhibasi Janajati – Tharus, Adhibasi Janajatis, Dalits, Muslims, and Madeshis. Since the government of Prime Minister, Puspa Kamal Dahal has violated the trust agreement signed between the two parties; we are obliged to continue our Civil Rights Movement with various civil disobedience acts. We demand that the government attend to the social justice issues as key to the political rights of the Adhibasi Janajati, Dalits, Muslims, Madeshis and the minority groups to establish a foreseeable peace in Nepal.

Main political agendas

Repeal and amend all acts and rules related to public services, Citizens Act, Election Act etc. in the Interim Constitution of Nepal, violating the spirit of the six point agreement signed between the Tharuwat Movement and the Government of Nepal. The government must uphold the spirit of equality by including the issues raised by the Tharuwat Movement to be tabled by this Winter Session.
Replace the term “Madeshi” with “Tharuwat” in the Interim Constitution.
Recognize the territorial expanse of Tharuwat stretching from Jhapa in east to Kanchanpur in the west, including Udaypur valley, Kamala gorge of Sindhuli, Chitwan, Dang, Surkhet as “Tharuwat Autonomous Federal State” and Limbuwan, Magarat, Tamuwan, Newa Mandal, Tamangsaling, Khambuwan, Khasang as other autonomous federal states in the Interim Constitution and the drafting of the new constitution.
Enact immediately all rights enshrined in ILO Convention No. 169, UN General Assembly Declaration on indigenous peoples, Earth Summit Declaration 1992 etc. amending the constitution and formulate the legislation in the interest of indigenous nationalities as Nepal government has ratified the international rule of laws binding to its partners.
Implement equal rule of law by providing constitutional guarantee of full proportionate representation for all castes/ethnicities based on ratio of census at all levels of state organs and sectors of the state.
Immediate appointments of Adhibasi Janajati – Tharus in the posts of Judges, Chief district Officers, Local Development Officers, Education Officers, Police and Army Chiefs, Constitutional Commissions, Diplomatic Missions, Ministries, Departments, various Commissions, The Supreme Court, including all government offices/corporations and companies in Tharuwat districts. In addition, correspond to appoint the Adhibasi Janajati – Tharus immediately in International Multinational donor agencies and organizations etc.
Include Tharu language as an official language alongside other languages and special arrangement for education up to higher secondary level in Tharu language for the Tharus.
Constitutional guarantee should be provided for the political rights of the Adhibasi Janajati – Tharus, Adhibasi Janajati, Muslim, Dalits and minorities.
Execute immediately the task of compensation, re-establishing and empowering the freed ex- Kamaiyas ( bonded labourers).

Public bandhs and strikes program

21st April, 2009 06:00 PM

Torch rally in all Tharuwat districts.

22nd April, 2009 onwards

Public bandhs and strikes for indefinite period.

23rd to 26th April, 2009

Padlock all government offices in Tharuwat region

27th April, 2009 onwards

Continuous public bandhs /strikes, boycotting local governance.

29th April, 2009 onwards

Tharuwat joint Struggle Committee will control all its natural resources, including water, forest, land by right of ILO-169

Tharuwat Sangharsha Samiti:

Laxman Tharu
Upendra Gachhedar
Dilli Bahadur Chaudhary
Yogendra Chaudhary
Shakun Sherchand Leslie
Gopal Dahit Tharu
Shailendra Chaudhary Tharu
Min Raj Chaudhary
Ramananda Chaudhary
Saraswati Chaudhary
Shrawan Chaudhary
C.N/ Chaudhary
Chandra Chaudhary
Chanda Tamang
Rukmini Chaudhary
Ganga Chaudhary
Chandra Prasad Chaudhary
Binod Chaudhary

Hindutsva Challenged

2009-04-03T19:32:00.001+05:45

(Courtesy: Briat Simha)

As the campaigning for the Indian parliamentary elections heats up, Varun Gandhi, a 28-years old candidate of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), has been taken into custody under the National Security Act. His misdeed: making fiery speeches supposedly inciting communal disharmony. That this has happened in the alleged largest functioning democracy in the world is remarkable; that the protagonist is a scion of the Gandhi clan, son of Menaka and the late Sanjay Gandhi and nephew of the Indian Congress Party leader Sonia Gandhi, adds another angle to the story.

Freedom of speech is a basic pillar of democracy. What the young Gandhi exercised was this freedom. In the recently concluded American presidential elections, strong words were exchanged among of the candidates. Radio show hosts were criticized for inflammatory and racist remarks. But no one was hustled into prison. The reason, of course, is that none of these remarks threatened the national security of the United States. That Varun Gandhi's remarks may have threatened the national security of India indicates the fragility of the Indian strain of democracy.

India has made spectacular gains recently in the economic sector. It is also a country where at least a quarter of its billion plus population is mired in abject poverty. Social indicators, especially those on health, do not reflect the political lead that India tries to take in the sub-continent. As a more telling illustration, the Gandhi family - that of Jawaharlal Nehru's daughter Indira Gandhi (not Mahatma Gandhi) - has become almost the "royal family" of India. That the oldest political party of India, the Congress, is currently headed by a woman of Italian birth says much for the awesome clout of the Gandhi name. Sonia just happened to be the wife of the pilot-turned-politician, the late Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi, who in turn may never have had to give up flying if his younger brother, Sanjay Gandhi, had not died in an aircraft mishap. Varun Gandhi is the son of this very same Sanjay.

Varun Gandhi's arrest has its political overtones. The BJP is challenging the Congress to lead the next government of India, which will almost surely be a coalition government. BJP has gained its fame, and has actually ruled India once, as a pro-Hindu party. It is today trying to downplay its Hindu origins to court non-Hindu votes. Varun Gandhi's speeches should not have come as a surprise to anyone. "Theocracy", something that most people believe ended when the Pope lost political power, is alive and well. The numerous Islamic states testify to this, as does the state of Israel. In this state of affairs, Hinduism is unique in that it does not accept converts. So with other religions on a conversion spree, Hindus will gradually have the least adherents. That the BJP should try to downplay its pro-Hindu roots and is almost disowning Varun Gandhi today illustrates this inherent hesitation among Hindus to stand up for Hinduism, that most tolerant of religion which is now facing extinction because of that very tolerance.

Another case in point: about three years ago, Nepal - then the only Hindu kingdom on earth - was declared secular by a motley crew of polticians, without so much as a peep from the people. While the Maoists have been logically blamed for this, the real culprits were the proselytizing grpups from Western donor countries who have made Nepal their conversion laboratory. While its Hindu population, comprising about 65% of the total, remained silent - or perhaps, tolerant! - Nepal lost its Hindu identity with a simple government ordnance.

Therefore, for Varun Gandhi to exercise his right to freedom of speech in the cause of Hindutsva is novel and laudatory. That his country is so insecure that it cannot allow him this freedom is a separate matter. All Hindus, especially those who have remained silent and docile so far, must view this imcident as a young Hindu stalwart's fight for his freedom, his beliefs and his religion!

The time has come for Hindus to stand for their rights and beliefs. This is not an exhortation to violence. Peaceful action is best. The symbol of universal peace, Gautam Buddha, was born a Hindu. Let us not be afraid, however, to fight if that is the only resort left us by our opponents. Let us not forget the Mahabharata and the Bhagvad Geeta when Lord Krishna himself, incarnation of Vishnu, went to battle to defend justice and righteousness.

Environment, Energy and Water in Nepal

2009-04-02T07:43:00.005+05:45

(Courtesy: Dwarika N. Dhungel)

Environment, Energy and Water in Nepal: A Key Note Address of Dwarika N. Dhungel delivered at an International Symposium on Environment, Energy and Water in Nepal: Recent Researches and Future Directions, organised in Himalaya Hotel, Kathmandu ( March 31 and April 1, 2009 ) by University of Yamanashi, Japan

1. All of you are aware that our world is facing an important environmental problem: climate change and global warming and their consequences. Nepal is not an exception to this global problem.

2. Climate change is now unequivocal. Recently the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) pointing to the recent studies announced that without decisive action, global warming in the 21st century is likely to accelerate at a much faster pace and cause more environmental damage than predicted. All sectors especially the socio-economically active sectors like water resources, agriculture, tourism, and health and areas such as biodiversity, natural disasters, extreme events etc are affected. Developed or developing, no country can escape from its impacts. Nepal is also strongly affected by the climate change, though her contribution in changing the climate is negligible.

3. Such changes are more pronounced in mountainous areas. This will accelerate the glacier melt in the Himalayas, which is projected to increase flooding, within the next two to three decades. This will be followed by decreased river flows as the glaciers recede. Freshwater availability not only in Nepal but also in the whole South Asia region is projected to decrease due to climate change.

4. In many years, there was practically no rainfall during the recently gone winter of 2008-009. We have observed the beginning of early warm season in the country. Japan's celebrated cherry blossomed early. If the trend continues, we may have to face a severe drought in the coming rainy season. Study by Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHoM) shows that the annual mean temperature of the country is increasing steadily at the linear rate of about 0.04oC/year. This rate is much higher than the mean global rate. The mean annual temperature has increased by 1.8°C between 1975 and 2006. Study shows that not only the mean annual temperature is increasing, but also all the seasons are warming. The rate of warming is also varied, which is higher in winter compared to the other seasons. Apart from change in mean state of climate, the changes in frequency and intensity of extreme climate events have profound impacts on nature and society.

In Nepal:

Cool days and cool nights have decreased.
Warm nights and warm days have increased.
Frequency of warm spells has increased and incidence of cold spells has decreased.

5. With the long dry period and unusually high temperature, this winter in Nepal has brought a lot of hardships to the public. Water level in most of the rivers has decreased. The wells, tube wells and ancient waterspouts (Dhunge Dharaa) have started drying in the Katmandu Valley. This has created drinking water scarcity in the valley. A 12,000 liter tanker water now costs Nrs. 2,600 up from Nrs. 1,200. After 2006 that was marked as one of the driest winters in Nepal, 2009 winter is another similar drier winter within a span of 3 years.

6. The rivers are not only getting dry day by day, but they are also getting polluted. Due to the lack of landfill sites facility, most of the urban rivers in the country have become west dumping sites. Almost all the rivers within the Kathmandu valley have turned into very dark pool of filths, dirt and wastewater - an open sewer. They could be easily called cesspools. The morning walkers along the river banks, which I also undertake along the Bagmati River with a senior colleague, have to use handkerchiefs in their noses to avoid very bad odor. If people like us cannot face or tolerate five to ten minutes in the dirty and filthy environment along the famous rivers banks of Kathmandu, one can imagine, in what hazardous conditions people must be living on the posh bungalows and shanty huts on the banks of this river. The Pashupati Aryaghat on the bank of the River Bagmati, where pauper and prince, both are normally cremated, may be the dirtiest place and whatever drop of water is available in it, is very hazardous and contaminated. But many after their cremation would like to get a piece of their bones buried underneath the clean water of the Bagmati River at Aryghat. Therefore, one of my friends wants me to answer his query, that is, Should we not have the respect for our sacred Bagmati River? He further thinks that 'we have for over a decade, environmental laws and regulations framed with the assistance of our friends (donors). Yet the will to implement those laws are totally lacking, why? I do not have the answers to these questions of my friend.

7. 53 percent of the total population (65 percent in the urban areas and 51 percent in the rural areas) is supposed to be enjoying the piped drinking water facility. Yet people face the drinking water problem. According to the ADB (2004), it is reported that nearly 50 percent of drinking water supply schemes are not functioning as designed due to the lack of proper maintenance in Kathmandu valley. Other urban drinking water schemes also suffer from this problem.

8. Water pollution is the most serious public health issue in Nepal. Water-borne diseases such as diarrhea, dysentery, cholera and skin diseases are among the top ten dreadful leading diseases. The quality of both surface and ground water sources used for drinking water purpose is deteriorating mainly due to both natural and anthropogenic contaminations. Discharge of untreated domestic sewers and industrial effluents into rivers, and landslides, soil erosion and floods pollute the river water. The ground water in the Katmandu valley is polluted with fecal contamination. Whereas, arsenic problem is rampant in the Terai (southern plains) area. This shows that the quality of drinking water in Nepal is miserably substandard.

9. Drinking water is the basic minimum requirement of all the human beings. Access to safe and adequate drinking water is the commitment of the government. Therefore, the government needs to raise the awareness of the people on sanitation and promote, operate and maintain domestic as well as industrial wastewater treatment plants to reduce the pollution of surface water and safeguard the public health. Studies have also recommended community wastewater management treatment plants and separate treatment plants for populated institutions such as hospitals, prisons and army camps. It may be recalled that wastewater management promotes water conservation by preventing pollution from untreated discharges to surface water, groundwater and soils.

10. The demand for water is increasing due to increase in population and industrialization and the rate of ground water recharge is decreasing with increase in pavement area due to rapid urbanization. As a result the ground water aquifer is vulnerable to drying of the wells, contamination of water and possible land subsidence. Among others, the depletion of ground water table is threatening agricultural development that is the main source of GDP in the region. But let me remind you that the people in Terai and the Kathmandu valley are very much dependant on ground water. Therefore a proper sustainable management of groundwater is urgently needed.

11. More than 30 year long study of glaciers in Nepal shows the alarming rate of glacier retreat from few meters to over 30 meters in a year. The most serious impact of climate change on glaciers is the expansion of these glacier lakes and formation of new ones, posing danger of glacier lake outburst flood (GLOF). Nepal has already observed 15 GLOF events. 20 glacier lakes in Nepal are potentially dangerous.

12. The fresh water resource of the Himalayas is depleting fast affecting the water resources of both Nepal and the populous Indo-Gangetic Plain. The mighty Ganges, whose 75 percent of the flow during the three lean months is fed from the rivers flowing from Nepal, supports 42 percent of the Indian population. There is going to be increasing demand for fresh water in our part of the world.

13. The heavy precipitation events show the increasing trend. This implies the occurrence of more extremely high rainfall in future and water induced disasters such as floods and landslides are expected to be more common. There may be high possibility of increased water induced disasters in the country. Moreover, the studies on observed trend in water-induced disasters also show the increasing trend in disaster (floods, landslides and droughts) events and damage. Nepal has; therefore, to develop a comprehensive disaster management strategies and frameworks for disasters risk reduction to adjust the sudden shocks.

14. It may be recalled that Nepal is known to be one of the richest countries in water resources. With her more than 6,000 rivers, having a combined run-off of more than 200 billion cubic meters (bcm), and contributing 46% (as high as 71% during the lean season) of the flow in the Ganges has immense potential for the development of hydropower, which, if developed to the maximum possible extent, would not only fulfill the total demand of the country but also some requirements of other countries of South Asia: India and Bangladesh. The theoretical hydropower potential of Nepal's rivers is estimated to be about 83,000 mega watts (MW) of which about 43,000 MW is considered to be financially and technically feasible for exploitation. However, Nepal’s per capita energy consumption is one of the lowest in the world reflecting the low level of development and prosperity. As of March 2008, the country had exploited only 556.4 MW of hydropower (public sector: 408.1 MW and private sector: 148.3 MW) of the hydropower potential. The country is undergoing 16 hours of reeling load shedding having serious consequences in the economy. It is most likely to increase in the days to come. Despite the fact that Nepal may organize programme to celebrate 100 years of the establishment of the first hydropower plant, 500 KW Pharping power plant, in two year's time, she seems to going back to the dark days. Thus one major question that needs to be raised: Why we are undergoing the worst load shedding in Nepal's history? Have the Initial Environmental Examination and Environmental Impact Assessment laws and regulations relating to hydropower development become a burden or, a constraint? The government's recent 35 Point Agenda that has been brought to deal with load shedding problem appears to indicate that.

15. The current energy consumption scenario shows that Nepal’s energy supply is primarily based on traditional, commercial and alternative energy of which the large portion of the energy consumption (over 85%) is dominated by the use of traditional non commercial forms of energy, the biomass fuels particularly fuel wood, agriculture residue and animal dung. As population increases, and economy expands, the energy demand would also increase. Coping the increasing demand and diversifying the sources of energy are the major challenges before the country.

16. The way the present and future demands are met affects not only the environment but also the overall development. Indiscriminate use of fossil fuel is leading to global warming and climate change. Nepal, therefore, has to pursue an energy policy that ensures energy for present and future use from sources that are dependable, affordable, safe and environmental friendly. Nepal’s energy development therefore got to be guided by the following principles:

Firstly, promotion of indigenous renewable sources such as solar, wind, biomass, hydro etc.
Secondly, energy diversification as no single source is likely to fulfill all types of energy needs and dependence on one source alone is not sustainable in the long run.
Last but not the least, efficient use of energy in the production, supply and consumption stages need to be maintained.

The key to a secure energy future is the efficient and effective use of a diverse mix of energy sources. But how sustainable, without the donor support, in solar, wind and biomass for a country like Nepal needs to be seriously analysed.

17. In the light of all the facts and realities, what I personally think is that friends of scholars working on Nepal, and professionals in the subject matters covered by this symposium, should in addition to undertaking studies and researches pay attention to the following matters and provide solid analytical basis to understand the problems and undertake the measures that would address the problems:

Find out what has been done to deal with the issues related to climate change, measures undertaken, their success or hard realities and lapses?
Successes and lapses in controlling river pollution and contamination and growing scarcity of drinking water especially in urban areas and arsenic problem related to the ground water.
Warning system and alertness/preparedness to deal with the GLOF burst and glacier related issues.
Development of more non-grid based hydro projects in isolated pockets and getting them hooked to the national grid.
Concerted and sustained effort to develop different energy sources.

Above all, I want to urge all of you to make an analytical study and diagnose the chronicle disease that Nepal has been suffering for a long time, i.e. Nepal is good in plan preparation but in the water and energy: no drinking water, no power, and cesspools all around. What a paradox?

Kathmandu

March 31, 2009

Re-thinking Maoist Democracy

2009-03-29T20:01:00.002+05:45

(Courtesy: Dr. Hari Bansha Dulal)

The populist floodgates that have been thrown open have dangerously destabilized the country. In the name of equality, ethnic fundamentalism is on the rise. Law and order situation is in a shambles. Judiciary is being ridiculed and attacked. Can a nation with an acutely vulnerable judiciary, absence of law and order, and social capital (dangerously depleted by rising ethnic hatred) prosper and consolidate democracy? Nepal represents a failing democracy in which the prospects for consolidation have narrowed down significantly mainly due to the politicians´ inability to manage peoples’ expectations and to look for solutions for domestic political problems from within the country.

The ruling party has been inconsistently consistent about their lack of faith in multi-party democracy and the opposition parties do not have the required strength and vision to mainstream the Maoists. Democratic consolidation in Nepal now is a generational challenge, requiring a long-term process of locally embedded civil society development, party institutionalization, and the disarmament of insurgency groups.

Virtually nothing will be achieved at this point by blaming the Maoists for derailing the democratic process and looking for an external solution to the problem. Why would the Maoists strengthen a system in which they never had faith to begin with? The Maoists had it all figured out. They wanted to get rid of the old political structure and fill the vacuum, which they have succeeded in doing so. With their militia controlling rural areas, they knew very well that major political parties of yesteryears would not be able to stand their wrath for long. The Maoists’ calculation went awry when ethnic dissent sparked off. But they quickly figured out a way to deal with it. By accommodating Madhesi Janadhikar Forum (MJF) and Nepal Sadbhavana Party in the government, they have frozen the chances of large scale ethnic revolt that could potentially bring down their government. As far as small-scale ethnic dissent is concerned, they are ready to strike a deal even if such deals have the potential to hurt the nation in the future. Their past deals clearly show how well they have mastered the art of using “useful idiots.”

Their biggest hurdle for now is neutralizing the Nepali Army (NA) and overhauling the bureaucracy. They want to neutralize the army because it is the only institution in Nepal that can put a brake to the Maoists march towards establishment of one party rule. By neutralizing the army—the process has already begun with the formation of Army Integration Special Committee—they want to negate the possibility of a takeover by the army or an army-backed government. For the Maoists, overhauling the bureaucracy is equally important because the Maoists know it very well that the Nepali bureaucracy is not neutral. The Maoists will not hesitate to provide golden parachutes so that they can get rid of civil servants they don’t want. By doing so, the Maoists will not only substantially reduce the threat to their regime but also please donors and other external players that have been advocating for reforms in security sector and bureaucracy. Actually, it might be perceived as a step towards promoting good governance by the donors and the Maoists government might end up benefiting both diplomatically and financially.

The Maoists have never shied away from making known their desire to establish one-party rule in Nepal. The one-party rule they want to establish does not have to be like North Korea´s. They can live with the West Bengal-type model, where they can run the show without much of a threat from other political players. Probably, that is the easiest and safest route for the Maoists. All they have to do is continue what they have been doing so far—flush out the political cadres of major political parties from rural areas. That way they can guarantee the outcome of future elections and appear democratic to the external world at the same time. This formula was successfully experimented in Constituent Assembly elections and it worked out pretty well in favor of the Maoists. They might want to take this experiment to the urban areas now. But how difficult would that be when you have the covert support of security forces, and the bureaucracy is willing to do the needful?

While the Maoists are working hard to find a way within the country to consolidate their rule, the opposition parties appear clueless regarding how to preserve their political space. The leaders of the opposition parties once again want our southern neighbor to devise a survival formula for them.

What the politicians of opposition parties fail to understand is, even if they come to the power and rule the country, which is only possible through NA´s backing, they will not be able to run the show for very long. They want to rule the country that no longer exists. Today’s Nepal is drastically different from the past. Nepal, as a nation, has gone too far left. First of all, even if India supports the opposition’s quest for power, removing the Maoists from power will not be as easy as removing Gyanendra Shah. The support that Pushpa Kamal Dahal has and the scale of violence that he can unleash is no match to the support and options that the former king had. So even if opposition parties bounce back with tacit support from India and the backing of NA, which in my view is completely unacceptable and undemocratic, they will not be able to rule for long. Dahal has way more support than what Gyanendra enjoyed during his rule. And, think about the cross-mobility of communists from the CPN-UML to the Maoist party. The recent college elections have clearly shown that the younger generation in Nepal is increasingly leaning towards the left. There is nothing to be cheerful about the poor showing of the Maoists in recent student union elections. Third place is good enough. It will not take very long for student leaders from the UML-affiliated student wing to migrate to the Maoist wing. They share the same ideology.

The options that the opposition parties in Nepal have at this point are very limited. For now, they should forget about scratching the backs of foreign leaders to garner support to bounce back to power. Such move is neither democratic, nor will it help them remain in power for long. The only way to keep the Maoists deviating away from democratic path is by keeping them engaged. It will take time, which Girija Prasad Koirala and other aged leaders unfortunately do not have on their side given their age and desire to establish their siblings in politics. We had an option to taste the success that Mahendra Rajapaksa in Sri Lanka is enjoying now, but we decided not to take that route and it is now too late to even think about it. Now, it is an ideological battle between the hardcore leftists and true democrats, if any. NA should not be dragged into this fight.

Let the people of Nepal themselves realize the difference between living in a liberal society and under hardcore leftists´ rule. A revolution that will occur then after will be the real revolution for democracy. It will be a long slog but would be worthier than the shortcut our southern neighbor devises for us. Not very long ago they devised a formula to establish democracy in Nepal and we all know how well it worked out. We are the ones who are now paying for their five-decade-long expertise in democratic consolidation. Do we really need another set of formulas from them again?

(Originally published at: http://www.myrepublica.com/portal/?action=news_details&news_id=3146)

Arun III Project: Nepal’s Electricity Crisis and it’s Role in Current Load Shedding and the Potential Role 10 Years Hence

2009-03-27T23:10:00.001+05:45

(Courtesy: Ratna Sansar Shrestha, FCA)

Abstract

It, has become fashionable to blame “cancellation” of Arun III project, by the World Bank in 1995, in reference to current electricity crisis, inferring that had it been implemented consumers in Nepal would not have been facing current load shedding problem. Now is time for a dispassionate and detached analysis of the two scenarios, the Arun III route and the route sans Arun III. The analysis of alternative scenarios demonstrates that the implementation of Arun III 201 MW project in 1995 would have not eliminated load shedding from 2000 onwards; in fact the power deficit would have been of a higher magnitude. Now, Arun III planning is for a new incarnation with a capacity of 402 MW, expected to be completed within next 10 years. But as the output of this proejdct has been slated for export, it, too, will not alleviate load shedding problem of Nepal.

Nepal is facing severe electricity crisis due to supply constraint and it has already been forecast that the load shedding is here to stay in the increasing magnitude. During this year’s wet season Nepal faced the problem of flood which resulted in loss of life and limb as well as property in the hilly areas and Terai in Western Nepal. Besides, the breach of Koshi embankment played a havoc in East Nepal where people got drowned (and unfortunately killed, too) and displaced, homes washed away, and farmers’ investment of time, energy and resources in the cultivation of their land washed out (in some areas even fertile land was converted to sandy “beach”). Moreover, communication network and infrastructure including road network was brought to disarray. Industries in the area also suffered due to break down of transportation system; either because of failure to access raw materials and other supplies or because of inability to supply finished product to its customers (most of the industries suffered on both counts).

In the past, Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) used to trot out the excuse of no water in rivers whenever it came up with a new load shedding schedule or made changes in them resulting in the increased hours of load shedding. However, this rainy season, even in the abundance of water (or flood!), NEA imposed a load shedding of 2 hours each day, two days a week, till third week of August 2008. With effect from 27th August, 2008 the load shedding hours was increased to 16.5 hours/week which kept on increasing ad nauseaum. The Chief of Load Dispatch Center of NEA announced in a program in Butwal on 11th November 2008 that there will be load shedding at the rate of 10 hours/day in Marga (November-December), which will go up to 12 hours/day in Paush (December-January) and it will peak at 14 hours/day during Magh (January-February) this year[i].

Many a pages have been written wherein the root cause of Nepal’s electricity crisis has been ascribed to the cancellation of Arun III by the World Bank in 1995, scheduled to be completed in 2005. Besides the journalists of many hues, a number of luminaries have also “invested” time and energy to write on this topic, including a special chapter dedicated to this subject, forming a part of the book by a renowned economist, who has occupied the position of finance minister of Nepal a number of times over last two decades and was the first Vice Chair of National Planning Commission of democratic Nepal in 1991[ii]. It is high time to examine/analyze if there is any truth in it. Irrespective of whether there is an iota of truth in this logic or not, it is also time to draw lessons from this phenomenon so that Nepal is able to learn from this episode and undertake projects for implementation in future prudently. In other words, a dispassionate and detached analysis is called for to test if the argument attributing current load shedding problem to the cancellation of Arun III project by the World Bank is rooted to ground reality or not and find out what lessons could be learnt from this episode. This entails conducting an autopsy of this logic, as it will also be able to throw ample light on the intellect and mindset of the hydrocracy (intelligentsia, politicos and bureaucracy involved in water resource sector) in Nepal.

FOR A FULL VERSION OF THIS TEXT, PLEASE REFER TO THE FOLLOWING SITE:
http://ratnasansar.blogspot.com/2009/03/arun-iii-project-nepals-electricity.html

[i] Source: Kantipur of November 13, 2008.
[ii] Mahat, Dr Ram Sharan, 2005: In Defence of Democracy, Adroit Publishers.

Murari Raj Sharma - A Relic of the “Old Nepal”

2009-03-26T09:35:00.003+05:45

(Courtesy: Kaila Baje)

In an interview entitled “Foreign Minister Yadav has Violated all Diplomatic Protocols,” EX-Nepali Ambassador to the United Kingdom, Murari Raj Sharma, makes an impassioned appeal to his readership by spewing all sorts of nonsensical logic on how he has been victimized. The following writing will categorically nullify each of Sharma’s allegations and will go further to demonstrate why Sharma’s false sense of entitlement, his bahunist hubris, and his familial ties to Girija Prasad Koirala, easily justify Foreign Minister Upendra Yadav’s actions.

First off all, this is the “New Nepal.” There is no space here for the type of shenanigans that sustained the feudal/nepotistic structures of the “Old Nepal.” In other words, Murari Raj Sharma’s blood relations to Girija Prasad Koirala no longer holds the type of political currency it once did. As a political appointee of the FORMER Prime Minister of Nepal, it is only befitting that Murari Raj Sharma, like his cohort of political appointees, also become a FORMER Ambassador.

As his first act as Ambassador, the FORMER appointee to the United States of America (Dr. Suresh Raj Chalise), is rumored to have replaced pictures of FORMER King Gyanendra with those of Girija Prasad Koirala. No, not in his private bedroom, or even the Ambassador’s residence, but in the Nepali Embassy in Washington DC. Chalise is on record, touring various think-tanks in the American capital, extolling the virtues of the Nepali Congress and how this party was responsible for ending Nepal’s civil war by “mainstreaming” the Maoists. As expected, Chalise did was he was sent to do - represent Nepal’s interests and in the process, uplift his political party’s international standing.

Even more could be expected of Murari Raj Sharma. This is why it made perfect sense for Nepal’s new government to rescind Sharma’s appointment because Sharma was scheduled to interact with high level British dignitaries. By doing so, Nepal’s Foreign Minister did quite the opposite of “disrespecting” British dignitaries. Instead, he made a calculated move to thwart a disinformation campaign by Murari Raj Sharma which was certain to have dwelled far less on Nepal’s national interests and much more on Sharma’s personal interests - propagating the falsehood of Nepal’s democracy as contingent on the auspices of Girija Prasad Koirala and his Nepali Congress.

Second, Murari Raj Sharma’s unfounded sense of entitlement is pasted all over his interview. Vetting process or not, Sharma was a political appointee of an era long past when the process of vetting was dominated by members of Sharma’s own political allegiance - the Nepali Congress. Sharma’s past claims of having “fought for democracy” in Nepal are preposterous distortions of the truth for his struggle centered squarely around securing his own future, then his Party’s and had little if anything to do with Nepal.

Further, one can hardly term the Sharma’s actions as those of a democrat when he is seen in open defiance of a democratically established Foreign Minister. What gives Sharma the right to question the verdict of a system that he supposedly helped create?

The other disturbing attribute of Sharma’s rant revolves around his rent-seeking behavior. For some pathetic reason, Sharma seems to think that the services he purportedly rendered in the name of restoring Nepal’s democracy, earned him the right to become an Ambassador. What chicanery! If Sharma’s logic were to hold true, there are thousands of Nepalis who deserve Ambassadorships before Sharma’s candidacy should even be considered as a back-up to a third-rate list.

In reality, Sharma’s sense of false entitlement is nothing more than a remnant of past feudal structures that once prevailed in Nepal. Aiding the process of Nepal’s transformation to a modern nation-state necessarily implies wiping the slate clean of such feudalist tendencies. Foreign Minister Upendra Yadav has done Nepali a favor by clearly signaling a departure in Nepal’s foreign affairs, from the rent-seeking characteristics of Murari Raj Sharma.

Also, Consider that Sharma used to be one of the closest confidants of Panchayati Prime Minister Marich Man Singh. After 1990, Sharma became a key figure in Nepal’s Customs Department, then a Foreign Secretary, Nepal’s Ambassador to the United Nations and finally, Nepal’s Ambassador to the United Kingdom. A product of hard work? Perhaps. A fortunate recipient of divine intervention? Could be. An offspring of the culture of sycophancy that continues to pervade the Nepali Congress’s internal “democratic” structure? Now we’re talking!

If Murari Raj Sharma had anything on his mind other than himself, if he had even a drop of diplomatic blood running through his veins, Sharma, like his cohorts, would have left his duty station in November of 2008. His excuse of personal embarrassment at having to cancel appointments with British dignitaries pales in comparison to the national embarrassment he has created for the Nepali nation-state.

Speaking of diplomatic norms and precedents, Murari Raj Sharma’s shameless public mud-slinging conveniently erases his own record of defying such norms. It was certainly not diplomatic of Sharma to continue abusing Nepali tax payers’ funds when he refused to vacate the Ambassador’s residence in New York - after he had been relieved of his duties as Nepali Ambassador to the UN. Double-dipping in the Nepali Government’s and the UN’s coffers was a brazen breach of conduct in 2003. Refusing to vacate the Nepali Embassy’s premises in London is just as egregious a crime, in 2008/2009.

If Sharma truly believes that the termination of his appointment has breached legal precedents, he, like all Nepali citizens, is welcome to challenge Upendra Yadav’s decision in a Nepali court. As a self-proclaimed democrat of democrats, Sharma of all people should demonstrate confidence in the rule of law; he should be equally prepared to face the consequences of his insubordination should he be found guilty of breaching the norms he accuses Foreign Minister Upendra Yadav of breaching.

Further, the allegations that Murari Raj Sharma has launched against B. P. Yadav (another democratically established leader in Nepali politics) are serious. Should Sharma have proof to back up his allegations, he is welcome to present his case before a Nepali court of law. Yet, such thinking appears alien to a disenfranchised sycophant who appears more concerned with creating controversy for the Nepali government (on behalf of his lord Koirala and Lady Sujata), than serving the interests of the Nepali people.

On a human level, the personal challenges Murari Sharma currently faces (his child’s education and his wife’s medical treatment), inspire sympathy. On a professional and democratic level, Sharma’s refusal to vacate the Nepali Embassy’s premises in London, and take leave to tend to his personal matters, are appalling! Is there anything democratic about Nepali tax payers subsidizing Sharma’s personal expenses?

There are reasons why the Nepali Congress is in demise and reasons why the Maoists, despite their stated objective of establishing a one-party communist republic, increasingly present the best of the worst alternatives for ordinary Nepalis. Characters like Murari Raj Sharma represent “glowing” examples of the increasing disenchantment that Nepali people feel, when it comes to the Nepali Congress. The Murari’s of our time are the epitome of why a democratic culture continues to evade Nepal. Emerging leaders in the Nepali Congress would do well to distance themselves from the likes of Murari Raj Sharma and the distasteful, double-standards his generation of politicians represent.

Foreign Minister Upendra Yadav had every right to terminate Murari Raj Sharma’s appointment. Moreover, given the ethnic dimensions to Sharma’s outburst (and the breach in protocol embodied by Sharma’s letter to a fellow bahun, Pushpa Kamal Dahal), Minister Yadav has even more reason to assert his democratically bestowed position by insisting that Sharma vacate the Nepal government’s property, immediately.

To Retain or Retire?

2009-03-24T06:21:00.002+05:45

(Courtesy: Chiran Thapa)

Once again, Nepal braces for another nail biting affair. Just when it was time to heave a sigh of relief following the recruitment row, another bout of vicious sparring between the Nepal Army and the Maoists in the government is underway.

Before, the row was over recruitment. This time it is over retirement.

As a customary practice, the Nepal Army had written to the Defence Ministry to extend the tenures of eight of its Brigadier Generals. Such extensions were never stymied in the past. This time, however, the Maoist Defence Minister did not acquiesce. When the Defence ministry did not forward the extension proposal to the cabinet, time elapsed and the Generals' retirement dates passed by.

Initially, when no word came from the Defence Ministry, the Generals were asked to continue with their respective tenures by the Chief of Army Staff (CoAS). But, now that the Defence Ministry has sent a letter to the Army Headquarters to retire the Generals, it remains to be seen how the Nepal Army will respond.

This case bears some resemblance to the retirement of senior officers of the Nepal Police. Just last month, the government did not extend the tenures of the Inspector General of Police (IGP) Hem Bahadur Gurung and three Additional Inspector-Generals (AIGs). Previously too, the government had not extended the tenures of eleven senior police officers who consequently retired in September of last year. That lot included the IGP Om Bikram Rana, five AIGs and five Deputy Inspector Generals (DIGs).

But the Nepal Army's case is markedly different. For one, the Police Force is utterly politicized and the institution has had very little say over postings, promotions and retirements. The Nepal Army, however, had thus far kept such matters strictly under its institutional purview. And the Defence Ministry had never before interjected in such affairs.

Also, under the robust commandership of the current CoAS, the Nepal Army has deftly maintained the chain of command and kept the institution intact. With great dexterity, the CoAS has effectively restrained those that want to come out blazing against the former foes and those that want to sycophantically pay homage to newly ensconced political masters.

Furthermore, under his watch, the Nepal Army has kept its boots off the political landscape. Instead, it has subtly cultivated cordial relations with various political forces, the media, the foreign diplomatic corps and other luminaries.

It is these extensive cordial links cultivated by the Nepal Army that have bolstered its clout and leverage. And the recruitment and retirement tussles manifest those relationships. The retirements of the senior Police officers were hardly an issue for other political forces. But, in the Nepal Army's case, politicians of all persuasions have fervently jumped into the ring to support the Nepal Army.

This time too, various political forces have joined the fray to support the Army. Numerous Nepali Congress (NC) leaders have called on the President Ram Baran Yadav - who is currently the Supreme Commander of the Nepal Army, and requested him to intervene to retain the Generals.

Under the leadership of the NC President – Girija Prasad Koirala, leaders of CPN (UML), CPN (Marxist Leninist), Nepal Sadbhawana Party, Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) and Rastriya Janashakti Party (RJP) have decided to forge an alliance against the decision to retire the Generals.

Besides the politicians, others are throwing in their weight too. A group of four former Lieutenant Generals met the President and requested him to use his “special influence” to end the controversy. They believe that such large scale retirement of the hierarchy would gravely jeopardize the structure and functioning of the institution. On the other hand, one retired Major General and a few other former junior officers have come out in support of the Defence ministry's decision saying that "the retirement is purely an administrative matter and the generals should retire as per the Defence Ministry's decision."

Amid these divergent perspectives, however, there is another distinctly inseparable element about this row. It has to do with the previous recruitment row. Recently, the Nepal Army had mulishly recruited new personnel into its ranks flouting the Defence Minister's objections. The Minister's inability to halt the recruitment process had greatly emasculated and embarrassed him and his party that is leading the government. Hence, given the history, the line between vengeance and righteousness is blurred.

This issue, however, transcends beyond the realms of vengeance or righteousness. For the Maoists, it is a face saving game coupled with their aspiration to reign over the Nepal Army. The only bulwark that stands in the Maoist path of total domination is the Nepal Army. The Maoists understand very well that if it were to get hold of the levers that controlled the Nepal Army, they can suppress and sideline any political opposition with relative ease.

Moreover, at a time when the country is in a hideous mess, this imbroglio provides the Maoist leadership with a much needed respite. This incident is being effectively exploited to divert the attention of the masses away from the inadequacies and insecurities plaguing the Nepali society. Faced with a sharply declining popularity, both nationally and internationally, the Maoists are trying to employ the Nepal Army's resistance to their advantage. By propagating Army's actions as a serious breach of democratic norms and values, the Maoists intend on garnering public support.

But most importantly, it sorely needs to demonstrate its supreme status to the people, and especially to its restive cadres and combatants. By overriding their stiff resistance in the recruitment row, the Nepal Army had given the Maoists a black eye. This incident had unmistakably demonstrated the acumen and strength of the Nepal Army.

It is no wonder why this tussle has become a must win situation for Maoists. The Maoists direly need to redeem themselves after their ignominious retreat from the recruitment row. They need to demonstrate that they are in control and that they have managed to lasso the most powerful institution in the country.

In the meantime, the Army too needs to prove that it still retains the capability to withstand and overcome political interference and that it will not be bossed around whimsically by those who want to infuse a politically indoctrinated bevy into its professional ranks.

If the Maoists are able to withhold the decision and let the Generals retire, it will set a new precedent. From the Maoist viewpoint, it would herald a new beginning in the control of the Nepal Army. This would certainly ease the way for the wholesale integration of their combatants into the National Army.

From the Nepal Army's standpoint, however, it will mark the beginning of political encroachment. And it will certainly instill a visceral sense of vulnerability amongst the troops, especially amongst the higher ranking officers.

But if the Nepal Army digs its heels firmly enough and is able to retain its Generals, then implications could be adverse for the Maoists. If Maoists are compelled to retract their decision, then it would be another humiliating blow to its stature and morale. And it would once again project the Nepal Army as a far superior force.

As this row unfolds, the prognosis is bleak. By retiring Brigadiers and upgrading the Colonels, the Maoists are perhaps hoping to prop up a new hierarchy in the Nepal Army that is more pliable to their interest. But, the new lot could easily turn out to be more radical and recalcitrant than the released ones. In any case, whichever way the tussle goes, it will most certainly poison the sour relationship that already persists between these two formidable forces. Not only that, this could possibly be the beginning of an end of an apolitical National Army.

8 March, International Women’s Day

2009-03-09T19:01:00.001+05:45

(Courtesy: Birat Simha)

8 March is International Women’s Day. International Women’s Day is observed around the world each year to celebrate the achievements and gains made by women and to focus on the job still to be done in working towards equality for women. International Women’s Day provides an opportunity for communities to recognise and celebrate local women’s achievements and the contribution they continue to make to their area.

I was reading in a paper the other day about a community in western Nepal which observed strict traditional customs related to maternity as well as menses. The new-born child and mother have to remain secluded, usually in the cow shed, for 11 days before the priest “purifies” the child in the ceremony commonly known as Nwaran. Similarly, women have to remain completely secluded for 5 days during their monthly menses. The former has resulted in the death of children who do not have access to proper post-natal care. The latter is yet another phenomenon of “untouchability” in our society.

A few months ago, the Miss Nepal pageant had to be scuttled due to protests from a women Maoist group which dubbed it as exploitation of women, ignoring completely that all the contenders were well educated young ladies, there is no bikini parade in the Nepal pageant, and the Miss World organization is a major donor to charities. So Nepal was not represented at the Miss World pageant in Johannesburg, South Africa last December. Ms. Russia won the crown and Ms. India was the runner up. A group of narrow-minded dogmatic women, ironically, prevented the Nepali contestants from competing for a better future.

Another glaring illustration is the treatment of widows in Nepal. When the husband dies, the wife’s bangles are broken, the vermillion on her head wiped away and she is swathed in white, never to wear red again. She has to go into hard mourning for 13 days. Some widows even wear only white for a year or for the rest of their lives. A widower can receive offers of marriage the very next day after the death of his wife.

Closer to home, I learnt recently that daughters, once married, have no legal rights on their parents’ property. I assume parents wash their hands off their daughters once they marry. She becomes the responsibility of her husband. In a way, she becomes a member of her husband’s family completely with minimal ties to her own family. I hear murmurings that this law will soon be changed, giving equal rights to sons and daughters. It is yet to be seen whether the fabled “New Nepal” will redress this inequality.

For sure, women in Nepal, as elsewhere in the world, have come a long way. Women’s literacy is over 40%, though men’s is close to 60%. Women in the work-force are visible from the women traffic police to the numerous executives and secretaries, though more of the latter to be sure. There is yet much to be done. The median age at first marriage of Nepali women is only 17. Maternal mortality rate, the number of maternal deaths per 100,000 deliveries, remains at 281, as compared to 110 for Maldives and 92 for Sri Lanka. Only 23% of Nepali women give birth attended by a trained attendant, as compared to 85% for Maldives and 96% for Sri Lanka.
Statistics alone do not tell the whole story. They are merely indicators of deep-rooted social, cultural and development issues. Until we can accept the fact that all babies, whether male or female, are born equal and have equal rights, the status of Nepali women will continue to be defiled. Parents will keep on having children until they have a son who can light their funeral pyre, thus inflating the birth rate. Women are usually not even allowed at funerals. Why should not a daughter light the funeral pyre? If women in history had the courage to burn themselves alive in the funeral pyres of their husbands, courage is in no short supply among women.

Changes in women’s status can come about only with basic attitudinal changes among men, as well as women who cling to out-dated customs. These changes need to be brought about by education, how children are brought up, and legal safeguards for women’s rights. There is still a long way to go for women to achieve equality and equity with men in Nepal. But it is a challenge that cannot be avoided. It has been proven, for example, that educated mothers have fewer and healthier children. So it is not an exaggeration to say that women shape the future.

As we celebrate International Women’s Day, let each one of us reflect on the true status of the average Nepali woman. Not the socialite or CA member, not the educated and aware, but the simple girls and women in a village. Perhaps they spend most of their time fetching water, cooking, washing clothes, and looking after their fields and cattle, if any. They are illiterate, doomed to a life unchanged for generations. Development, a nebulous term at best, requires many ingredients. A crucial one is that women have to be educated and their status must be equal to men.

(The writer is a former UNFPA Representative in Mongolia and Papua New Guinea)

Political Problems Don’t Have Military Solutions

2009-02-01T12:35:00.003+05:45

(Courtesy: Comrade Libre)

There are certain forces, internal and external to Nepal, that are engaged in goading the NA (Nepali Army) into controversy. For the good of the military institution, the well-being of our men and women in uniform, and for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Nepal, the NA must continue resisting all forms of political instigation. The Army must continue its journey down a politically independent path, with service to the Nepali nation-state (and her people), as the institution’s ultimate objective.

UNMIN Exposed - Why the controversy now?

First and foremost, blame for the controversy over the NA’s bid to fill vacant spots, lies squarely in the United Nation’s corner. The monitoring of arms and armies is the cornerstone of the UNMIN’s mandate in Nepal - a mandate that apparently, the UNMIN failed to execute on two prior occasions when the NA filled vacation positions, without fanfare or controversy.

Both previous recruitment drives were advertised, were identical in process to the current drive, and were held after the signing of the CPA (Comprehensive Peace Agreement). So either the UNMIN learned of all three recruiting events at the same time or it acted at the Maoists’ behest. Irrespective of what the actual rationale may have been, the facts remain that the UNMIN failed to act in a timely manner, failed to carry out its duties and at least in perception, failed the dual tests of impartiality and independence - again.

It is shameful enough that a civilian (Mr. Ram Hari Shrestha) was abducted and subsequently murdered inside a UN supervised, Maoist cantonment. In the face of the public scrutiny that followed, Ian Martin was quick to cite a lack of mandate to report (or even prevent) pre-meditated murder. That was bad enough. But for Ian Martin to throw his weight behind the Maoists’ in the current context is just unhelpful, disingenuous and a shameless display of selective enforcement of the CPA.

Toppling the Maoist Government - What does the average Nepali gain?

Second, the disgruntlement over the NA’s recruitment is only one of several on-going issues. It is neither paramount to the continuity of Nepal’s peace process nor particularly relevant to the constitution-making process. What it is, is an unnecessary distraction of a political variety that should be deferred for resolution at the political level. The last thing the NA should be doing at this juncture is permitting its institutional integrity to be compromised over political power plays.

If Girija Prasad Koirala’s Nepali Congress has political contentions with the Maoists’, it is GPK and the NC who should be addressing such concerns with Prachanda and the Defense Minister. The same goes for the UML, the RPP, the MJF or any other political party. But to use the institutional issue of NA recruitment as a springboard to forward political agendas (specifically, to cripple and embarrass the Maoist government) is dangerous, irresponsible and can escalate into further confrontation.

For issues of a political variety, the Cabinet and the Parliament are where civilized confrontations (also known as debates) should be had. If resolution cannot be achieved at that level, the NC, the UML and others are welcome to pursue street protests. In other words, the “democrats” in these parties ought to rely more on the tools that enable democratic practice - parliamentary politics and civil disobedience - and less on military adventurism to fulfill their respective political objectives.

Betrayal in Historical Perspective - The lessons the NA should never forget

Third and most important, the NA”s leadership should have the common sense and wherewithal to realize that it is the very same politicians who insist upon upholding the NA’s apolitical sanctity, who are also busy exploiting the NA’s predicament. The NC’s ultimate goal is to put GPK back in power and Madhav Kumar Nepal’s pipe dream of replacing Prachanda is distasteful humor. How does either scenario benefit the Nepali nation state?

How is it even possible to take a man like Girija Prasad Koirala seriously? After all, it was under Koirala’s watch that the armed Maoist insurrection took hold; it was GPK’s government under which operations Romeo and Sierra-II-Kilo were launched; it was GPK who resigned his premiership because the Army did not mobilize against the Maoists’; and during the height of the insurgency, it was under GPK’s leadership that the SPA (Seven Party Alliance) forged a political alliance with the Maoists. That very alliance undermined the same Army that today, Girija Koirala is attempting to use to satiate this lust for power.

In a nutshell, it is because Girija Prasad Koirala fell for the Maoists’ “promise” that they would make him Nepal’s first President that the NA answers to the former Chief of the Maoists’ military wing today. And now Girija Koirala is bent on encouraging the NA to defy the Ministry of Defense? How does any of this make sense?

Conclusion

The NA has performed superbly after the restoration of the dissolved parliament in April of 2006. Under its current leadership, the NA has regained must of its lost stature and has exercised restraint, professionalism and an unwavering dedication to the Nepali nation-state and her people. As a deterrent to Maoist adventurism, the NA is the single, standing bastion of hope. And this is precisely where the NA should remain - for now.

The NA should continue encouraging the “useful idiots” (who were instrumental in facilitating the Maoists’ to power) to actively assist in the process of seeking “political solutions” to the political challenges at hand. As for those critics who claim the NA is being too submissive, the NA should assure them that if appearing docile is what it takes to keep soldiers out of harm’s way, then so be it. Better submissive than dead and in all honesty, how seriously should those who have been on the battle field take criticisms from those who are experts at trading words, not bullet?

Under no circumstances should the NA go out on a limb to help any internal political party, individual, or external force, in the pursuit of their self-interests. It is the collective Nepali interest in which the NA should act and if this means allowing Ram Bahadur Thapa a face-saving exit, then so be it. The NA can easily diffuse the debate over recruitment by assuring all concerned parties that future force replenishment will not take place. (This, after the UNMIN takes responsibility for failing to execute its mandate and inform the NA in a timely manner.)

Given the delicate juncture at which Nepal’s peace process has arrived, the NA should remind those who are egging it on that there never was (and never will be) a “military solution” to a “political problem.” The NA should steer clear of becoming a back yard where Parties with no grass roots support or tenable objectives (other than coming into power themselves), air their “dirty laundry.”

New Nepal Plunged in Darkness

2009-01-21T08:26:00.002+05:45

(Courtesy: Ratna Sansar Shrestha)

Latest Scenario

As far as the latest scenario is concerned, I am apprehensive that Nepal will have electricity crisis spanning next 10 years and further, if the relevant policies are not completely overhauled. NEA, during its anniversary celebrations, claimed that after five years, load shedding will be a matter of the history. This is not the full truth. The problem is as follows. NEA claims that another 806 MW will be generated in the next five years and there will be 1493 MW in total in the system and based on their own load forecast, the demand then will be 1271 MW (in peak season) which will lead one to jump to the conclusion that there will be surplus electricity. But in reality, 1493 MW will be the total installed capacity which can generate at full capacity only during the rainy season and it goes down to half to one third of the capacity during the dry/peak season, creating scarcity again due to short fall of 400/500 MW even if all the projects that NEA has in the pipeline are completed on time. There will be shortage of electricity in five years’ time by a higher magnitude if these projects are not completed in time, as is the general tendency.

Now that the government has set a target to generate 10,000 MW in 10 years’ time of which about 8200 MW is for export purposes and 1800 for domestic consumption, the total installed capacity for domestic consumption after 10 years will be around 2500 MW and load forecast for that year is 1900 MW; an apparent case of surplus generation. But again, there will be seasonal dearth of electricity due to the above-mentioned phenomenon. Even after addition of 10,000 MW capacity after ten years, load shedding will continue to exist. Therefore, the government needs to change its policy drastically and focus more on the hydropower development for the purposes of domestic consumption first.

In Nepal, the average electricity consumption per capita is 69 kWh per annum which in the developed countries it is around 20,000 kWh. Economy of a country is linked to the electricity consumption. Electricity can be used for industrialization, employment generation, agro processing, irrigation, cold storage, changing lifestyle and so forth. Even it can displace POL products for transportation by electrifying transportation, e.g. electric railways along east-west highway. By just undertaking Kathmandu-Birgunj railway Nepal can displace 120 thousand kiloliters of fossil fuel in a year. This can significantly reduce both trade deficit and balance of payment deficit of Nepal with India. The government is planning to construct fast track road linking Kathmandu to Terai instead of which it should have chosen electric railways in order to escape from the fossil fuel dependency syndrome.

The generation of 10,000 MW is possible only if the government can arrange to mobilize an investment of Rs 1,500 billion. It all depends on how effectively the government can lure the investors, which is not an impossible feat, though. Nepal is receiving Rs 150 billion annually from remittances from authorized sources which alone is sufficient for 1,000 MW. Therefore, 10,000 MW in 10 years can be generated from this source alone. But we don’t need to use remittance alone for the purpose; there are many domestic investors interested to invest in hydropower. Besides, there are foreign investors also interested in implementing hydropower projects. Having said this, 10,000 MW, therefore, is not beyond our reach. However, from infrastructural perspective, Nepal is not prepared for the implementation of this size of hydropower projects; we lack necessary infrastructure like access roads and transmission network. To some extent, these infrastructures will be developed by the investors as well but not all. Therefore, the government should also construct necessary infrastructures. Otherwise, the higher investment by the IPPs will be reflected in the bulk electricity tariff which ultimately affects the consumers making electricity unaffordable in this water resources rich country.

There are many people holding licenses for hydropower projects but they have not been able to implement due to lack of sufficient capital (some don’t even have fund to conduct feasibility studies). Generating one MW needs initial investment of about Rs 150 million. The government has been liberally giving away licenses to any applicant even to those without financial capability to mobilize necessary fund because of which power generation has been far less than the capacity of the licenses issued. This is a policy failure. On other hand, the NEA has been circumspect in signing PPAs which too has been creating constraint in the implementation of the power projects. Therefore, the government should ensure that the applicants have required capital before issuing licenses while NEA should sign PPAs liberally to solve the current constraint in power supply. Otherwise, the load shedding will grow year by year and will adversely impact our macro economy.

Reforms Required

Licenses should not be issued to those who are unable to mobilize necessary equity.
NEA should be liberal in signing PPAs but should implement penalty clauses against those who are unable to generate electricity in time or are more interested in peddling the PPAs.

Domestic consumption of electricity should be prioritized. The government should ensure that 100 percent of its population has access to the electricity which now is limited to 25 percent that too with load shedding. Also increase the per capita consumption of electricity which now is 69 kWh. The politicians talk about transforming Nepal into Switzerland which will be possible only by increasing per capita electricity consumption in Nepal, too. The per capita energy consumption in European countries is over 20,000 kWh. Therefore, the priority should be that in next ten years, the per capita electricity consumption will be 10,000 kWh in Nepal not that we generate 10,000 MW in ten years and export most of it and, thus forcing to continue load shedding in Nepal.

I am not averse to export of electricity but on certain conditions only. The government has the right to export its hydropower only after electrifying all Nepali households. Further the tariff of exporting and importing hydroelectricity should be comparable to each other. i am disappointed with the fact that West Seti Hydropower Project, a reservoir project, exports electricity to India at less that US 5 ¢ per kWh while NEA imports from India at US 10 ¢ per kWh. In the meantime, parts of Nepal are supplied with thermal electricity costing around US 40 ¢ per kWh. West Seti electricity should be primarily used for the development of Seti-Mahakali Region and only surplus electricity should be exported. The export policy should be such that we sell our surplus during rainy season (peak season in India) at reasonable/appropriate price.

The promised 60 MW to be provided to Nepal by India to counter power shortage during winter this year will cost NEA more than Rs 7 per unit (excluding other costs within Nepal) whereas NEA’s weighted average retail tariff is Rs 6.70 only. Therefore, these discrepancies should be resolved in the interest of the country.

The claim of government receiving revenue of Rs 250 billion by exporting 10,000 MW after 10 years is ridiculous. It will only amount to Rs 3 billion commensurate to royalty and tax rates, because the bulk of the amount will be spent in paying back the loan including interest and dividend to the investors, according to Shrestha. It is only about four to five percent that will accrue to Nepal by exporting hydropower. Many assumptions of these people are not grounded to the reality.

It is not necessary that reservoir projects cost more than normal hydropower projects. Large hydropower projects, though reservoir based, cost less than small HP plants due to scale economy. Average cost of construction comes around Rs 150 million per MW. One of the costs that is not included is the inundation or submergence. West Seti HP project inundates 3000 hectares of land including existing infrastructure, forest, wildlife etc which Nepal loses for ever but this cost is not internalized in the cost of the project which is about one billion dollars. West Seti reservoir augments the flow by 90 cubic meters per second of water during dry season which can generate Rs five billion per annum for Nepal based on the Lesotho precedent who charges South Africa $ 25 million per annum for 18 cubic meter per second. But Nepal is going to provide the augmented flow to India free of cost. As West Seti reservoir project is in the north of the Terai districts like Kailali, Kanchanpur, Banke, Bardiya, it should either be developed as a multipurpose project which can irrigate the land in these districts or India should be charged for the augmented flow.

Under Koshi Treaty the embankment was built on both sides of the river, which was breached by Koshi River due to criminal negligence in failing to conduct regular repairs and maintenance of it. With the water from the barrage, less than 7 MW power is generated in Kataiya, India. Because of the embankment breach, Nepal incurred a loss of about Rs 10 billion due to the loss of land, loss of settlement, wild life, industrial production, damage to infrastructure etc. but the loss in terms of electricity is not that substantial due to its small size. Some transmission towers were uprooted because of which Nepal cannot evacuate power from India. Until the diverted river comes back to its original course, neither the hydropower could be operated nor electricity can be imported through that part from where the NEA is said to import 40 MW of electricity until completion of its renovation.

What has been the contribution of Small HP projects?

Small HP projects developed by private sector have made substantial contribution. NEA has been building projects at the average cost of more than 3000 dollars per kW whereas private sector has been developing at less than 2500 dollars per kW. Middle Marshyangdi outrageously costs 6000 dollars per kW. Small HP projects are showing how economically can they be built compared to the big projects which are supposed to cost less due to scale economy. Another worthy effort of the private sectors is that they are able to complete their projects on time but NEA’s projects are always delayed. Even the highly acclaimed Chilime HP was delayed by five years.

Better Late than Never!

2009-01-15T10:19:00.002+05:45

(Courtesy: el Guapo)

The last month and a half in Nepali politics has witnessed a silent revolution of sorts. No, it’s not the Maoists’ who are at the helm of this quiet revolution. Rather, it is the Nepali Congress that has finally begun playing the role of a credible opposition party by checking Maoist aggression on issues related to the Nepali Army, religion and land ownership.

On the Nepali Army

Through Koirala’s Machiavellian style of leadership, the Nepali Congress has begun to simultaneously chip away at each of the Maoists’ Achilles’ heels. First, the pivotal role that the Nepali Congress played on the issue of recruitment for the Nepali Army was commendable.

The NC’s rise to the defense of a national institution that has demonstrated its professionalism and commitment to democracy time and again, has placed the Nepali Congress is a completely different limelight. The outpouring of support on the Army’s position on recruitment sounded more like the type of rhetoric that would come from a national government than from an opposition party.

Although the sudden burst in support for the Nepali Army most certainly had its own brand of political motivation, the NC’s demand to maintain the political independence of the Nepali State’s tier-one security asset was well-timed and immaculately executed.

The message that the NC delivered was flawless - that the Nepali Army should not be dragged into political controversy, should be permitted to fill its vacant spots and that the pursuit of both of these tasks is in the national interest and not in contravention (in either letter or spirit) of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement.

By adopting this line, the Nepali Congress demonstrated its capacity to learn from past mistakes, its ability to adapt to Nepal’s changed political context and more importantly, its ability to contain Maoist ambitions in a very logical and disarming manner.

By insisting that the Nepali Army be permitted to carry on with filling its vacant positions, the Nepali Congress also managed to weaken another pillar of unyielding Maoist support - Mr. Ian Martin, who at the time of this writing, is rumored to be in the process of being “diplomatically” replaced.

On Religion

The controversy over whether Indian or Nepali priests should conduct ritual prayers at the most significant Hindu temple in the world (Pashupatinath) was dumb luck for the Nepali Congress and truly a dumb calculation on the part of the Maoists’.

By forcibly intruding on a matter of religious significance, the Maoists’ literally shot themselves in the foot. A blatant violation of the tenet of maintaining separation between religion and the state occurred and the Nepali Congress was at the right place at the right time to capitalize on this Maoist blunder.

As the saying goes, one must make hay while the sun shines and this was exactly what the Nepali Congress did. As soon as the news of YCL (Maoist) cadre physically assaulting Hindu priests hit the airwaves, the Nepali Congress was at the forefront demanding a reversal of the Maoist government’s decree to discontinue the tradition of Indian priests performing religions rites at Pashupatinath.

The NC’s stance immediately curried Indian favor, especially from within the ranks of India’s powerful Hindu-aligned BJP party, and also from Nepal’s religious Right. The memory of Nepal’s top Hindu activist having been murdered by the Maoists’ emerged to the top of the rhetorical agenda and on a second issue in succession, the Maoists’ were forced to concede their original position.

Once again, most peculiarly, the Nepali Congress demonstrated the qualities of a ruling party while playing the role of an opposition force. If only some semblance of such high thinking had characterized some of their rhetoric when the NC was actually in power (at any point in the post-1990 period), it would be the NC and not the Maoists’ who would be riding at Nepal’s helm today.

On Property Rights

Although the issue of land reformation is a complicated one, the NC’s insistence that the Maoists’ return stolen property to their rightful owners, is brilliant. The logic forwarded (and rightly so) by the Nepali Congress is that the return of property is a priority that the Maoists’ agreed to on paper, as part of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement and multiple successive agreements thereafter. The Maoists’ have failed to deliver.

So when the Maoists’ complain that the NC is not allowing the peace process to reach its logical conclusion by stone walling the Maoist combatant issue, the NC’s response is that while important, the Maoist combatant issue isn’t the only item on the peace agenda. To this, neither the Maoists’ nor Ian Martin, nor any foreign government sympathetic to the Maoist cause has a logical response and the NC knows this.

The manner in which the NC has framed this debate is that legal procedures and not forced acquisition should guide the process of land reform. Many of the landowners who have been disenfranchised by the Maoists, belong to the ranks of the Nepali Congress. But political activists have rights too and there is no constitutional exception when it comes to the State’s responsibility to protect the rights of its citizens. It is unfortunate for the Maoists that in this particular case, it is they who are the perpetrators of the crime and soon to be the prosecutors of the “criminals” as well.

Conclusion

The Maoists’ had initially gauged Girija Koirala’s lust for power aptly. By luring Koirala with the dream of becoming Nepal’s first President, the Maoists’ gained one concession after another from the SPA (Seven Party Alliance). They used Krishna Prasad Sitoula and Shekhar Koirala to forward the Maoist agenda and in doing so, managed to keep the international community at bay. The Maoists’ used the UNMIN (UN Mission in Nepal) to consolidate their credibility, opted for elections once they were certain to deliver a stunning victory and finally ascended the apex of Nepal’s power pyramid.

Now the dream is over and it is increasingly apparent that all of the Maoists’ tactical calculations have been on target with the exception of one. The Maoists’ appear to have grossly underestimated Koirala’s single, yet prescient talent - his tired and true subject matter expertise in bringing down governments and political opponents, with finesse and unassuming candor.

Girija Prasad Koirala may fail every test known to man in good governance; he may be clueless in the art of management; he is certainly a stranger to the idea of succession planning and intra-party democracy. But when it comes to undermining and humiliating his political opponents, Girija Koirala is a one man army; a global authority whose services would benefit any effort at toppling governments and breaking up coalitions, anywhere in the world.

It is under Girija Prasad Koirala’s leadership that the Nepali Congress is finally showing some mettle. And given all the totalitarian hints the Maoists keep dropping, the dismal state of lawlessness, and an economy of the verge of collapse, the time is coming once more for the Nepali people to choose between the lesser evil - Girija Koirala with his demonstrated deficiencies in constructive leadership or Pushpa Kamal Dahal with his demonstrated proficiencies in orchestrating cold-blooded mass murder.

Unite for Democracy

2009-01-13T17:33:00.000+05:45

(Courtesy: Dr. Hari Bansha Dulal)

Radical communists regard goodwill gestures and concessions as nothing more than contemptible weakness and an irresistible invitation to take advantage.

The Maoist ascendency to the power was the biggest political surprise of 2008. The result of the Constituent Assembly (CA) poll, which was conducted without the required political preparation and adequate security arrangements by the Nepali Congress (NC) led government, shocked everyone: from immediate neighbors to the power centers overseas. As a matter of fact, the "April surprise" not only shocked the keen observers outside the country, but also the major political parties of the yesteryears, who till then thought that they were the ones that were actually mainstreaming the Maoists.

The CA election completely turned the table around. All of a sudden, benevolent appeasers, whose never ending concessions to the Maoists reduced a genuine peace process to an "appease process" were at the receiving end. An unexpected victory in the CA election gave the Maoists an opportunity to go their own way.

While the people who are aware of what radical communism is capable of delivering watched the Maoist ascendancy to the power with trepidation, gullible "coffee shop" hopping intelligentsia appeared least bothered. The defeat of democratic forces in the CA election was rationalized as a step forward in integration of the Maoists into the democratic process. The Maoists know very well as and how to garner the sympathy and support of a gullible intelligentsia and partisan civil society, don't they?

It's been almost nine months since the CA election was conducted and approximately four months since the Maoists formed the government. A question that we ought to be asking ourselves is -- are we in fact better off than we were a year ago? If the answer is no, how long should we wait before we decide to do something about the rapidly worsening situation?

Puspa Kamal Dahal, himself, has admitted that he has failed to deliver and match the people's expectations. The grand dream of transforming the nation with hydro dollars has gone bust after the declaration of energy crisis. Hundred plus hours of load-shedding per week and labor union militancy have dwarfed the possibility of foreign direct investment in the country. How will the Maoists transform the nation and provide dividends they have been promising all along? Every Nepali should be asking this question in order to come to a rational conclusion on whether or not the Maoists have what it takes to transform the nation.

The Maoists simply do not care about the sufferings of poor and the downtrodden. They gain from the unfair advantage that Nepalese people suffer from a lack of hope in the possibility of getting an authentic and good government that will tend to the grossly unattended needs of our society. What the Maoists are doing is cleverly manipulating the psychological insecurities of Nepali people. They are least concerned about how badly it hurts collective self-esteem.

Instead of taking responsibility for the failures, Puspa Kamal Dahal and his psy-war experts, are once again threatening a "mass revolt." They do so because it benefits them politically. By simply reminding of us pain, suffering and dread of future terror, they want us to eventually weaken and give in to their demands. Their ultimate goal is to capture our hearts and minds -- to convert us.

How can threat of bloodshed transform our attitudes in favor of the Maoists' worldview? Wouldn't we recoil in horror and, if anything, move farther away from sympathy toward the perpetrators of violence? Nope. Look at how jihadists in radicalized Islamic societies across the world "convert" innocent individuals to Islam by threat of death. It is just a matter of applying the tactics that works at individual level to a larger scale. It does work. The counterintuitive result of the CA election is a proof. It's been already tested on our own soil.

When Thomas Jefferson said that "people get the government they deserve," he must have had people like us in mind, who can easily be duped. It did not take us very long to buy "revolutionary dreams" sold by the Maoists, did it?

So what is the way out? A strong democratic alliance is the need of the hour. It, however, has to have clear goals and objectives. Or else, it will be perceived as a "grand design" of fat cats within the NC, UML, RJP, and RPP to make a grand come back, and hence, will not take off. The Nepali people, who have been duped again and again in the name of salvation, deserve a detailed plan about how salvation would occur this time around. There are way too many "dream merchants" in Nepal for people to believe in.

Patience is great, but the longer we wait, the more damage gets done. The very day our southern neighbor comes to a conclusion that the China-leaning Maoist regime cannot be dislodged anytime soon, disintegration of Nepal is guaranteed. For India, its national security is more important than territorial integrity or sovereignty of Nepal.

The delay in emergence of a strong democratic alliance will cost us dearly. The Maoist party by cozying with Upendra Yadav is under a false impression that Madhesi revolt is all but over. Besides that, the Maoists do not have any moral ground to go against the wishes of the ethnic parties since they ignited the flame of dissident politics. It has to be done by an outfit that understands the threat and is genuinely interested in empowering the Madhesis. By not going after a permanent solution, the Maoists are allowing ethnic hustlers that are ready to outdo Lengdup Dorje to forward their political agenda.

By attacking media and interfering in religious tradition, the Maoists are feeling the pulse of Nepalese society. They will tell you what you want to hear, but will do what benefits them politically. The Maoist ministers' sojourn to the jail where Ramesh Babu Pant and Ramesh KC were housed clearly exhibits moral bankruptcy on part the Maoist ideologues. Don't we know already how low they can stoop?

There might still be some within the major political parties of yesteryears that think "appeasement" is the only way out to moderate the Maoists and secure the lost political space. This is a prescription for disaster. Appeasement always encourages your master to further subjugate you. If more subjugation is not immediately forthcoming in response to appeasement, it's only a strategic delay. Radical communists regard goodwill gestures and concessions as nothing more than contemptible weakness and an irresistible invitation to take advantage.

Ignore history at your own peril!

Socialism and Communism Sans Austerity

2009-01-12T09:03:00.001+05:45

(Courtesy: Shyam Prasad Adhikari)

"The last stage of socialism is communism" is what a political thinker has said. As stated by Karl Marx, "Communist society is one where each individual works according to his/her's capacity and in return takes from the society all that he or she requires." The major difference between socialist and communist system is that under the socialist system the individual gets from the society all the material benefits in proportion to his or her capacity, whereas under the communist system, because of abundance of goods and services, capabilities loose their significance enabling each member of the society to get all the benefits that an individual requires.

Nepal has been declared a republic and the present government is led by Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist. For any new government coming to power in Nepal, it has become a customary to issue directive for the maintenance of austerity measures to check public expenditures. But unfortunately, the directive remains in paper only, and is taken as a ritual by ministers and all government functionaries. As a result, no one feels responsible and accountable for monitoring and implementing it. The present government too, seems, performing the same ritual by issuing the austerity directive through the cabinet, recently. But the sad part of the story is; "Even as the government has approved a special directive through the cabinet, vowing to check unnecessary expenditures, one-third of the ministers of the current cabinet have left the country on foreign jaunts putting great pressure on public exchequer".

The country is, currently, undergoing difficult political situations and is weighted down by myriad socio-economic problems. People, in general, have started commenting on the ministers' expensive foreign tours by calling the austerity directive of the government as a "Pennywise and pound foolish" decision.

We have now a communist-led government, which believes in communism. Socialism and communism imply national ownership of the means of production and distribution. The idea of fair distribution of goods and services and also of austerity and equality are inherent in these concepts. But a highly tragic aspect of our political leaders versions of socialism and communism are that those who loudly profess them, themselves make a mockery of it by living in grand, ostentatious style and regarding themselves as a privileged class even while countless millions of Nepalis do not get a square meal and go semi-naked. Despite the periodic exhortations by exponents of socialism and communism asking people to economies all-round, in view of the unprecedented economic crisis, foreign cars and Prado jeeps are still being bought from the foreign companies for the use of ministers, MPs and bureaucrats. The cost of ministerial comfort to the public exchequer is indeed very heavy. Their salaries represent a fraction of what the nation has to spend on them and on all the pomp and show that are deemed essential whenever prime minister and ministers go on foreign tours or visit districts to inaugurate a function. Their prerequisites are so many and so out of tune with the times, that many foreign visitors wonder at the governmental extravagance, while the country is still associated with the begging bowl at international forums and in affluent countries.

The conduct of Heads of state and ministers in capitalist or non-socialist countries provides a sharp contrast. The Prime Minister of Turkey has refused to live in the spacious official residence or to use an official car; instead, he prefers to live in a modest rented apartment. The highest executive there has thus set an example of real austerity by living like a common man. But in Nepal, many of our ministers and officials insist on using luxurious cars and furnishing their official residences at heavy cost to the exchequer. The President of Switzerland travels by bus. The governors and governor-generals in Australia and Canada walk in the street like common men and never get road cleared for them. A recent example is that the President of South Korea, Mr. Li Miungbak, was seen riding an ordinary bicycle on way to his office. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the president of Iran, who recently announced that he would not take salary, is a glaring example of politician's sacrifice for the country.

In Nepal particularly in Kathmandu, whenever President or Prime Minister or other VIPS are to pass along a road, other people have to make way and sometimes traffic is hold-up for hours. If our VIPs live in simple style like commoners, they would be better able to realize what problems face the country. If they abandon their limousines and ivory towers, they would be true socialists and communists and not fake ones, as they are now. The yawning gap between their professions and practice does not extend to their mode of living. It is also notable in their day-to-day actions and their effort to acquire wealth and property while the sun shines. In their living styles they imitate affluent aristocracy, and in their lust for wealth they imitate the present neo-rich and in their speech they preach democracy, socialism, communism and austerity. All the sacrifices are on the people's side, comfort and luxuries on theirs.

Austerity and simplicity are postulates of democracy, socialism and communism". But it is ridiculous to see our leaders and politicians, who swear by socialism and communism every day and endlessly, call for more sacrifices by the masses. It appears that our leaders have conveniently escaped the evolutionary process of socialism and communism and are trying to achieve all the material benefits, irrespective of their contribution to the society and are trying to get all the benefits of a socialist and communist society, disregarding the fact that our social and economic systems are still in pre-industrial society stage. It is most unfortunate that our political leaders, proponent of socialism and pursuing communist ideology, preach their "Isms" to people and they themselves practice and behave like capitalists. What a socialism, communism and austerity in new Nepal !!

Is Nepal going to Fail?

2009-01-09T19:40:00.000+05:45

(Courtesy: Krisna Giri)

Instead of mocking Nepali leaders, this time my thoughts are going towards the country and countrymen. Bulldozed by the political and leadership changes; besieged by living and security conditions; aggravated by the false hope for water and electricity, people are going through exceptional intellectual stress than ever before. The successive government’s governance is being so underprivileged that people are abandoned by every successor. Peace, Rule of law and social harmony amongst diverse societies are fouled by various power centres. I truly wonder how this country is surviving. The Prime Minister is talking about waging another civil war. Defence Minister and Chief of Army staff announced series of ambiguous statements. A Madheshi leader is talking about end of Nepal. Janajatis are already declaring their autonomous regions. Indian Ambassador, once close friend to all parties, is holding secret meetings with former Monarch and Foreign Minister is outraged and publicly giving some sermons about diplomatic protocols. Various ethnic groups are recruiting armed combatants to wage war against the state. Few religions elements are already plotting bombs across the country. A Supreme Court judge gets lecture about rule of law and power of people. And now a Pashupati Priest becomes another victim of dirty political onslaught.

My worries at this point of time are neither leaders nor parties but the nation. We have been bombarded by nationalistic rhetoric for some years but hardly anything has been done to keep the aspiration alive. It is really hard to believe that Nepal has a democratic government. If you believe in modern capitalistic democratic society, you would assume at least ruling and opposition parties. We do have parties but may be someone can help me to identify who is ruling and who is opposing. Parties are moving their feets left, right and centre. They trying to grab every opportunity vested by political ego and ambition. In the name of democracy, the country had faced immense undemocratic stirs in the recent past. Abraham Lincoln once said: “Democracy is the government of the people, by the people, for the people”. If he was alive to witness the political hysteria in Nepal, he would have regretted the last bit, democracy for the people. And he also once said, “Ballot is stronger than the Bullet”. He would have changed his mind if he was born post Maoist era. Let’s forget about the sincerity of the government towards people, there is no evidence that the government is working for the people. The political backlashes within parties and communities have forced the country to embrace unfortunate economy, security, peace, jobs, affordability, housing etc.

The country has lost ground in a verge to collapse. A ‘Fail State’ is not a new term for us any more. These words have been thrown for discussion by numerous scholars for a while. The principal anxiety for people is this- ‘Is the country going to fail’? As a commoner, it is imperative to understand the basics of a ‘Failed State’. A Washington D.C. based NGO, Fund for Peace, defines a ‘Failed State’ as, “A failed state is a state whose central government is so weak or ineffective that it has little practical control over much of its territory; non-provision of public services; widespread corruption and criminality; refugees and involuntary movement of populations; and sharp economic decline”. All successive Nepali governments in the last decade meet the above criteria and pose enormous threat to the sovereignty of the country. It is expected from an independent country’s government that they exercise genuine control over at least the larger part of their country and population. A state should be capable to cooperate with other states, donors, international communities and govern according to the rule of law, respect international legal obligations, prevent crime etc.

The African Studies Centre, Leiden, in its report released in December 2003, send a chilling threat to the states in a path to fail. The report states, “It should be realized by policymakers that failed states, and particularly the ones that have collapsed, never return to how they were prior to breaking down, even in the event that they do succeed in regaining coherence after a period of failure”. I don’t think a patriot would ever think to lose the history, culture, nationality and identity as whole because of domestic conflicts. These conflicts motivated by political ambitions are causing widespread harm to the entire nation and has jeopardized the national harmony. We should not let the country fail.

Most states fail with internal conflicts and civil wars but that is not only the reason. In some cases, a country may fail because of foreign governments who knowingly destabilize a state by fuelling ethnic warfare or supporting rebel forces, causing it to collapse. We know the role of India during Maoist insurgency leading to the overthrow of the Monarchy. In a recent interview with Kantipur, D.P. Thripathy, an Indian leader who broke 12 points understanding with SPA in November 2005, has admitted that Indian elements want to treat Nepal as a colony. Political market is already frenzied by the China’s interest in CPN Maoists government. We need to be alarmed by too much interest expressed by world powers and our neighbours. What we need to understand is, ‘if they succeed, we fail and if they fail, we too fail’.

ADB Putting Pressure on GoN to Raise Water Tariff

2009-01-08T00:00:00.000+05:45

(Courtesy: Ratna Sansar Shrestha)

The vernacular daily “Kantipur” has reported on 5th January 2009 that ADB has written to GoN re tariff increase being pre-condition for ADB’s support for Melamchi Diversion Tunnel (MDT), (by a letter dated 28th December). In other words ADB is holding the construction works of MDT to ransom to fulfill its covenant related to tariff increase. It is unbelievable as the story sounds outrageous. Therefore, I am unable to believe that an institution like ADB will be part of anything as such (bullying tactic).

Moreover, it has been reported that someone in ADB has been going around claiming that the Water Supply Tariff Fixation Commission exists because of ADB and if that is true then it is more unlikely that ADB would write such a letter because this action both undermines and impairs the independence of the Commission as the decision regarding tariff is in the purview of the Commission and pressurizing GoN for the purpose doesn’t make sense.

Let’s look at it from another perspective. Multilaterals in Nepal have been recommending and implementing “foreign management” as the best panacea for improvement of public enterprises which languish due to political (and otherwise) interference and for such institutions being unable to function independently and autonomously. In this backdrop it is unthinkable that ADB will take any deliberate action as such to undermine and impair the independence and autonomy of the Commission. Therefore, I hope that the news-story is a fig of imagination of the reporter.

The reporter further goes on to portray the two of the three members of the commission as anti-Melamchi. I am sure that ADB didn’t feed this to the reporter. I have no information about the involvement of the other two members in the debate related to Melamchi. However, this scribe has been actively campaigning to solve the water supply problem of Kathmandu valley for the longer term (2 m3/s of water will not be adequate by the time this project will be completed and the rampant scarcity will persist and as it took 30 years, hopefully, to take off the first stage, it will take quite a while for the second and third stage to leave the drawing board) and also resolve electricity crisis to an extent by generating hydropower (no financial obligation on GoN and ADB for the purpose) by using the same tunnel for multipurpose Melamchi which will also benefit farmers in Terai as water in the dry season will become available to irrigate 30,000 ha in Terai without any additional investment. Moreover, with about 1 billion liters of water flowing even during the dry season in the Bagmati River (it couldn’t be called a river now as it is full of sewage) this river will have a new lease of life. This definitely doesn’t make me anti-Melamchi.

Although the experiment of the World Bank with foreign management in two prominent banks, in the name of financial sector reform, has failed very badly (after spending Rs 7 billion and 6 years), at the insistence of ADB the water utility management of Kathmandu valley has been entrusted to a foreign management team. In a period of less than a year, the new management has submitted 3 (one informal and 2 formal) proposals for the escalation of water tariff to the Commission. As ADB’s name has been linked with the water tariff increase it is worthwhile to look at the issue a little closely.

Nobody in the right mind will disagree that any enterprise, including a utility, needs to be operated sustainably. However, as water supply is an essential service and it touches upon the lives of the poor and deprived segment of the society, a utility as such should not be too focused on tariff increase in isolation as long as there are other ways of achieving the sustainability. In other words, increase of tariff should be resorted to only after all avenues for sustainable operation of the utility have been exhausted. In this respect the utility is in a position to implement various measures to operate it economically, efficiently and effectively before resorting to tariff increase.

Besides, the only ground cited for tariff increase is the inflation over last 4 years. However, the utility is ignoring the increase in its consumers by 15% over the same period due to which the consumers have been effectively forced to pay at a higher rate (pay same amount for dwindling volume of water) as the volume of water supplied by it has not changed since 2004.

I am sure everyone will agree that a tariff increase is like a bitter pill which needs to be sweetened by improving the services of the utility. Otherwise, the consumers could rise against the measure thus deteriorating the law and order situation already standing at the precipice.

Therefore, it makes no sense to take up the issue of tariff increase in isolation and stake the reputation of an institution like ADB.

Who’s the Idiot Now?

2009-01-07T22:53:00.005+05:45

(Courtesy: Mr. Satyajeet Nepali)

(This section has been removed at the writer's request).

Response to Manjushree Thapa’s An End to Idiocy

Yes, Manjushree Thapa is right; the "idiocy" needs to stop. But the idiotic in Nepal are not just the political leaders. The bigger idiots are the so-called "intelligentsia", "civil society" and so forth whose holier than thou attitudes and complete refusal to engage in introspection give sustenance to even more idiocy. At least the majority of Nepal’s politicians lack the elite, Western education and exposure that comes with it; this is a bad but digestible excuse for Nepali politicians’ idiocy. But for people who have enjoyed the luxury of traveling the world and attending the best liberal education institutions the West has to offer, there is no excuse. People like Manjushree Thapa are even more idiotic than the politicians she conveniently blames – the same politicians that Thapa helped exonerate for over a decade of crimes against the Nepali people. Is it such a wonder that the "idiotic" culture of impunity persists in Nepal?

The real question is, how much intelligence does it take privileged elites like Ms. Thapa, to evaluate the 15 years after 1990 and the "narrowly self-serving" practices that were institutionalized during that time? Wasn't 15 years of malgovernance enough to show that these “democratic” leaders were committed only to “democratically” stuffing their pockets? Just take a look at where the children of such leaders have gone for their higher educations and compare the fee structures at these institutions’ with the leaders’ annual incomes. Idiotic, isn't it?

As for the Maoists, upon what basis did Ms. Thapa and her band of "idiots" misinterpret volume after volume of Maoist writ explaining exactly what the Maoists’ stand for, their brand of radical politics, and their plans for Nepal? So who are the bigger idiots? The politicians who gave birth to the Maoists’ and then subsequently brought the Maoists’ into the “mainstream” or the idiots who were so blinded by the short-term glory of “Storming the Bastille,” that they neglected to evaluate the fully burdened, long term cost of their actions? It is convenient for people like Ms. Thapa to shift positions as it suits her agenda of distancing herself from her feudal roots; but it is not as convenient for a nation of 27 million who have to bear the consequences of the follies of people like Ms. Thapa.

The fact is that Nepal’s intelligentsia did the utmost possible to bring these political parties and Maoists to power, convincing Nepalis that the SPA-M alliance would really make a difference. They were the ones to used their elite, stylish and influential pens to convince the international community that if the 240-year old history and the monarchy were to be jettisoned, Nepal would stand a chance of building a better and brighter future ("New Nepal" as they called it)!

Well, now Nepal is a Republic and according to many, on a fast-track to an illiberal leftist autocracy. And if Ms. Thapa’s escape from this reality is that “this is a process,” there is only one thing to be said in response: “Go tell the 24 million Nepali people who are without running water, electricity and access to basic health care that the “smart” thing to do was to launch a campaign against the Monarchy in return for Maoist domination of the political sphere.” The majority of Nepalis may not be as educated as Ms. Thapa, but even marginally educated know an idiot when they seen one. Who’s the idiot now?

Further, to be completely transparent, Ms. Thapa should also tell the Nepali people that the people her advocacy helped propel to power are “the same Maoists’ who during the years 2000/2001, destroyed nearly $500 million (yes, US Dollars) worth of infrastructure; bridges, roads, repeater stations that were built over the course of the past 30 years.” Tell the Nepali people that they “need to be patient” while people like Ms. Thapa use their entrenched, feudalism-based influence to peddle experiments with one process after another while Nepalis continue to suffer. How idiotic does the truth sound?

The Monarchy, like every other institution in Nepal, needed to be restructured, and reformed, not eliminated. In this regard, many of the politicians who Ms. Thapa regards as “idiots” were the ones trying their level best to rise above the populist idiocy that Ms. Thapa played a role in propagating. Politicians like Shailajha Acharya, K.P. Oli, Prakash Chandra Lohani, Surya Bahadur Thapa, and even Baburam Bhattaria were forced into idiocy by the rhetoric spun by people such as Ms. Thapa – rhetoric which was magnified and spun again by Ms. Thapa’s contacts at the International Crisis Group and various media outlets. How convenient for Ms. Thapa that in hindsight, she finds no issue with her own brand of advocacy but Nepal’s politicians are “idiots!”

After all the damage that has been done, the likes of Ms. Thapa have the gall to go around and tell Nepalis how "narrowly self-serving" our leaders are and how everything is so "idiotic!" Does Ms. Thapa think that the same people who “raped” Nepal for 15 years are likely to recognize the sacrifice that Nepalese have made to re-install them in power? What school of idiocy did Ms. Thapa attend to fool herself into believing that the current generation of Nepali politicians are going to change their ways because of Thapa’s “oh-I'm-fed-up-with-you” article???? Who's the real idiot here?

It's sad, but true. The so-called "intelligentsia" of Nepal have been nothing but "useful idiots" (to use Lenin's term) for the Maoists. And to use the Maoist supremo's own language, they have been "the backs that the Maoists’ climbed upon to smash the head.” In simple terms, the Maoists’ used and abused the human rights agenda, the peace agenda, the democratic agenda and a host of liberal, Western ideals to forward their march to political domination. “Intelligent” people like Ms. Manjushree Thapa, played the role of stepping stones for the Maoists’. When compared to people like Prachanda, Baburam, Ram Bahadur Thapa, and C. P. Gajurel, it is clearly Manjushree Thapa who appears to be the bigger idiot.

The Nepali state is in the tragic form she is today, in no small measure, due to the activism of the likes of Ms. Thapa. Wrinkling up her nose and blaming the political leaders is no excuse. People like Thapa should set a moral precedent by owning up to their own mistakes of the past; by pointing her finger at Nepali politicians, Ms. Thapa is playing the part of the pot, calling the kettle black.

One would have thought that when intelligent people like Manjushree Thapa supported the SPA-M alliance, they had done their due diligence. But apparently not so. Now they are coming around and telling us how pathetic our leaders are and how they’ve pretty much always known it. Then why the idiocy of leading the nation down a path that guaranteed even more idiocy? Neither the politicians that Manjushree despises nor the policemen (one of whom struck Manjushree on her head during a “peaceful” demonstration) are any different today, than they were before 2006. This is a hard fact that no one should idiotically dismiss. Especially Ms. Thapa.

Former King Gyanendra may have been an idiot for acting without a concrete plan but he was nonetheless, an idiot who could be controlled through various policy instruments. Good luck to Manjushree and others, as they try and control the Maoists’ and other politicians by alleging “idiocy” through publications like Kantipur. If Manjushree is “frankly scared” by the Maoists’ today, she is more than likely to be “terrified” by what is yet to come.

Why always blame the "political leaders" for the nation's woes? Shouldn't our "intellectual leaders" have been more realistic and discerning in their judgments about who and what to support and fight for? Instead of going off in their fanciful dreams of revolutionaries building a "New Nepal," shouldn't they have been more responsible? Did they not pause to weigh the likelihood of a better society being built by the same group of leaders who have failed time and again? Before going all-out and calling on the Nepalese people (and the international community) to back the SPA-M alliance, shouldn’t our “intellectual” leaders have given more thought to the costs and benefits of enthroning the same discredited leaders and and a bunch of cold blooded killers (the Maoists')?

Nepali intellectuals, like Ms. Thapa, can't hide behind the facade of incompetent "political leaders" anymore. Their holier-than-thou attitude vis-a-vis Nepal’s political leaders is stale and repulsive. Ordinary Nepalese and the international community backed the SPA-M alliance because our "intellectual leaders" supported them. Articles by Manjushree's ilk crying foul at insincere political leaders doesn't absolve the likes of Thapa from their incompetence, insincerity, and downright “dishonesty.”

Yes, the idiocy and irresponsibility that has brought Nepal where it is today must end but equally, the process must begin with people like Manjushree Thapa reflecting on their own actions more and on the actions of others, less. As the saying goes, Manjushree needs to learn to "walk the walk" as well as she has demonstrated her capacity to "talk the talk."

The Global Recession and Consequences of Inaction for Nepal

2008-12-29T07:10:00.006+05:45

(Courtesy: Dr. Dolittle)

“The bullet that kills you never takes you between the eyes. It always hits you in the temple.” - Jeff Wacker, EDS Futurist.

Metaphorically speaking, the “bullet” aimed at Nepal’s “temple” is economic in nature whereas the “bullet” that has Nepalis enthralled, is political. Unless Nepal’s Maoist-led government veers away from its populist economic policies and takes concrete measures to hedge against global economic realities, the Nepali nation-sate (its current government, the constitution making process, and the few gains that have been consolidated from the on-going peace process), are at immediate risk.

The highly interconnected nature of the global economy implies that the effect of global trends (both positive and negative) have global implications. The degree of such implications vary in terms of location, timing, duration and intensity, but any suggestion that Nepal is insulated because of its lack of global connectivity is naive and without analytical foundation.

The obvious impact of a global economic slowdown for Nepal will be noticeable reductions in annual remittances. Employees of Nepal’s financial services sector often refer to remittances as the very “lifeblood of the Nepali economy.” Evidence that corroborates such suggestions are well documented and beyond refutation. When mixed with the unregulated growth in Maoist-backed market interventions (specifically through Maoist labor unions), the net result is bound to be amplified negative distortions on the Nepalese economy.

More succinctly, the systematic closure of private Nepali enterprises are eroding the little shielding the Nepali economy has against the global recession. Nepal produces unskilled labor and that’s about it. Nepal’s net exports are negative - the country imports nearly all essential commodities (raw materials, fuels, agricultural goods, etc.). This requires constant access to foreign currency which Nepal had little to begin with and will have even less as foreign discretionary spend goes down and increasingly populist policies crowd out international private investment.

Assuming that Nepal’s Maoist government continues down its populist path, the country is left with two sources of foreign currency (over the short-to-medium-term): that which is generated by Nepali laborers abroad and that which is generated via loans and grants from the international Donor Community. The latter comes at incremental cost to future Nepali generations and the former, is shirking as the lagging effects of the global recession hit Nepal.

To put matters in perspective, less money from abroad means less money in Nepali families’ pockets, less consumption, more unemployment and all the cascading socio-political consequences that follow. The Nepalese economy may not be prone to mortgage-backed securities or complex collateralized debt obligations but fundamentally, the country’s only lucrative enterprise - the financial services sector - runs on variations of collateral backed loans. Examined from this viewpoint, when the means to service existing loans are jeopardized by the unavailability of sustained cash flows, there will be resounding impacts on the country’s only profitable sector - financial services - with networked consequences for every other sector across the Nepalese economy.

As an example, the supply of land in Nepal’s urban centers is limited but this should not fool anyone into thinking that the demand for property is unlimited (or that prices will continue to rise irrespective of the external environment). The Nepali banking sector’s practice of extending loans is based on personal affiliations - credit terms are offered based on who one knows as opposed to any reliable mechanism that reflects creditworthiness. Lending terms often include collateralized assets which in theory can be repossessed by the lending institution. In practice however, re-possession of collateralized assets entails additional costs to the lending institution in terms of contractual enforceability and legal complications over extended time periods. Such complications render the cost of repossession unduly high which ultimately, encourages moral hazard.

So when emerging middle-class families that rely on remittances to service some portion of their mortgages find their cash-flows reduced, Nepal’s financial services sector will be forced to reduce its margins. This means re-forecasted revenue streams, reduced profitability and damper future prospects with feed-back effects on the broader Nepalese economy. Under such circumstances, housing projects, land prices and those who derive sustenance from related sectors will all be negatively impacted.

Nepal’s unregulated stock market is likely to be another victim of the global recession. The story here would be a variation of the same theme - less capital inflow means less discretionary spend for Nepali consumers which in the case of the stock market, means less capital chasing after the same (or more) assets and eventually, deflated or collapsed asset prices. Most private and institutional investors abroad have some capacity (with their respective governments as lenders of the last resort) to absorb and eventually recover from near-collapsed markets. A similar destruction of wealth (although it impacts a miniscule part of the Nepali population directly) would have dire consequences beyond Nepal’s market alone - the very core of the open market system and the applicability of democracy would come into question.

The example of Nepal’s stock market is further complicated by the manner in which insider trading is so engrained within the system. In Nepal, a handful of individuals essentially collude to drive stock prices in a certain direction after which the “herd mentality” takes over. There is hardly any regulation, oversight, or governance over securities fraud so the average middle class Nepali investor is exposed to a lot more risk and a lot less legal recourse, should asset prices rapidly deteriorate.

Given the susceptibilities the Nepali economy is exposed to, the current government must do more to hedge against multiple worst-case scenarios such as the ones described above. Although it is standard practice for low probability, high impact risks to receive reduced priority during decision making processes, according similarly reduced priorities to elevated risks in plain sight is inadvisable.

Nepal’s fragile coalition government and its actors may want to take a step back from dodging the perennial “political bullet” (aimed between its eyes) and allocate slightly more resources to figuring out how to sidestep the imminent “economic bullet” (aimed at its temple). Politics for once should take a backseat to more urgent matters because for the common Nepali, it matters less who is in power and more whether his/her economic future is secure.

The Idea of a Broader Democratic Alliance

2008-12-27T12:44:00.003+05:45

(Courtesty: Siddhartha Thapa)

Introduction

Contrary to popular belief, the main purpose of creating a "broader democratic front" is not to topple the Maoist led government. The idea of establishing a broader democratic front is to prevent a situation that will push the country towards an eventual political confrontation. It is, therefore, important to comprehend the situation under which various leaders have been demanding the early amalgamation of democratic forces and it is equally important to understand the underlying factors and the political compulsions of creating a Broader Democratic Alliance. First, the Maoist party is the largest party in the Constituent Assembly and; the Maoists together with other leftist parties are a majority in the Constituent Assembly. Second, the Maoist party belongs to an extreme revolutionary group who do not believe in the existence of a liberal democratic polity. And lastly, the Maoist party leads a government with arms to defend the subsistence of their extreme communist ideology. It is in this perspective that the idea of a Broader Democratic Front becomes essential if we are to envision the long term survival of a plural, liberal democracy in Nepal.

Other democratic parties, primarily the Nepali Congress do not posses weapons. Organizationally too, the democratic parties stand as weak opponents to the Maoists. Maoist unions, the bellicose and boisterous YCL outfits have succeeded in stalling industrial progress. The YCL continue to intimidate bureaucrats throughout Nepal to work towards their party's interest. Today, all governmental institutions and even the private sector stand as hostage to the institutionalized bullying, terror tactics and to the extreme ideology of the Maoist unions. However, what is most alarming is the fact that almost all government machineries besides the Nepal Army have been rendered non-functional. But more fundamentally, the constitutional, legal, judicial, and the democratic process have begun to crumble under sustained Maoist pressure. In such a situation, all parties that believe in the existence of a plural, liberal democratic order should have engaged in genuine political maneuvers to check mate the Maoists. Unfortunately; that did not happen.

The Idea of a BDA

If the Democratic Front had taken shape and been effective; the Nepali political discourse would present a politically balanced picture. However, the reality today is vastly different; the democratic forces are weak and divided, they lack cohesion organizationally and are a minority in the Constituent Assembly. On the other hand, Nepali Congress, the largest democratic party is weak organizationally and the persistence internal wrangling has further weakened the party. The other democratic parties such as the Madesh based parties and the former RPP's too are scattered and divided across the political spectrum. The weak presentation of the democratic forces is having a negative impact on the transitional politics of New Nepal. A sense of hopelessness and dejection is slowly taking over the minds of the people who have been subjugated to continued Maoist brutality. The long term absence of a tolerant liberal democratic alternative will create disenchantment with the democratic parties in the long run.

Therefore, in this critical stage, it is necessary for the democratic parties to forge an alliance. In fact, the recent attacks on Himal media and the free press reveal these two political certainties. It is important to understand that time is indeed running out as there is no real sustainable alternative to the democratic front. However, the Maoists are making concerted efforts to foil the creation of a democratic front. Individuals within the Nepali Congress such as Ramchandra Poudel, who is reportedly close to the Maoists, is being used by the Maoists, to thwart the creation of a democratic front. Other than Poudel there are other leaders within the Nepali Congress ranks who are opportunists and are more eager to join the Maoist led government than to oppose the Maoist on principle political issues. For such opportunist leaders, the existence of a democratic front is irrelevant as they are neither loyal to the Nepali Congress, nor do they have strong conviction to envision a truly democratic Nepal.

On a more hopeful note the existence of a democratic front will create positive political equilibrium as it will give people the courage to resist the Maoist's totalitarian views. But more importantly, the existence of a democratic front will be crucial to politically balance the Maoists and to contain them within a democratic paradigm.

Regional Implications

The growing Chinese influence in Nepal will only work towards the benefit of leftist forces. Indian foreign policy vis a vis Nepal seems to have been guided by two objectives: the removal of the institution of monarchy and the creation of strong democratic base in the Madesh to secure their borders fearing possible nexus between the Maoists in Nepal and India. However, the Indian experiment in the Madesh has failed. The recent revelation that some Mumbai attackers were in Nepal and that the Chinese had sent in miscellaneous funds for the Maoist party to use as military funds should be a worrying sign for the Indian establishment. Increasing Chinese activity and the ISI's recent exercises in Nepal all indicate that Nepali territory is being used against India. China's active presence in Nepal coinciding with a Maoist led government in Nepal will have a long term impact on India's national security. India's opposition to Islamic terrorism but her silence towards political terrorism can in no way help her deal with her security qualms – Maoist insurgency is political terrorism. The Maoist menace in South Asia today stands as the biggest challenge to India's national security. The continuance of Maoist dominance in the Nepali polity arena has augured well for facilitating increased Chinese and ISI activity in Nepal against India.

It is important to note that within the India political context, the experiment of both NDA and UPA has worked well in politically balancing two opposing ideological camps within the democratic framework. The Indian experiment has proved that such alliances have long term impacts on the political structure of a country and that it is sustainable too if the alliance is constructed on a consistent ideological platform. The formation of a democratic alliance in Nepal will help India neutralize anti-Indian elements that are a threat to both India and Nepal's long term security concerns. The formation of a democratic alliance will be most effective in repulsing increasing Chinese and ISI activity in Nepal.

Conclusion

The mere indulgence in speeches, nauseating use of rhetoric, issuing of statements, cannot be viewed as an effective strategy in confronting the Maoists. Democratic institutions and organizations need to be strengthened in response to the challenge meted out by the Maoists

All parties that envision the survival of a democratic polity must come together putting aside their prejudices of the past against each other. This is the only hope and the real alternative that the democratic parties can wield to counter the Maoists, their ideology and their domestic and international backers. The Nepali Congress must understand that they alone cannot counter the Maoists. The BDA needs the support of other democratic parties too. The survival of democracy in Nepal will be determined by the ability of the Nepali Congress and the other democratic parties to work together against the Maoist, other authoritarian forces and anti-nationalistic fronts. Only the unity and the collaboration amongst the democratic parties can help Nepal overcome the challenges posed by the Maoists who are keen on establishing a non-democratic communist state in Nepal. If the Nepali democratic parties embark on this endeavor and unite, they will provide the Nepali population a credible alternative to the Maoists and hopefully democracy and the nation can be saved. In such an event both national and international players will undoubtedly come out openly in favor of the Broader Democratic Alliance.

http://nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com/2007/04/after-year-of-loktantra-is-it-finally.html

Himal Media Reaps the Maoist Whirlwind

2008-12-22T10:05:00.005+05:45

(Courtesy: Comrade Libre)

It's hard to decide what's more shocking - Maoists' entering Himal Media's premises and physically assaulting that organization’s employees or the reactions of disbelief from various segments of Nepali polity - many of whom were instrumental in facilitating the Maoists' unchecked rise to power. As “outraged” as these “useful idiots” may be, it is unlikely that Himal Media, the (Western) international community, or any Nepali political Party, has either the resources (manpower, intellect, etc.) or the will, to effectively counter the Maoists.

When it comes to Himal Media in particular, the issue of "perception being reality" is everything. The perception amongst the vast Nepali majority is that Himal Media functions as an Indian mouthpiece and a tax haven for the International NGO (INGO) community. The Nepali Times (the English weekly produced by Himal Media) has an avid readership among the ex-patriot, diplomatic and non-resident Nepali communities. "Himal Khabarpatrika" and Himal Magazine cater to the South Asian intellectual elite. "Wave," another publication from Himal, caters to the elite, urban Nepali youth.

This sort of market segmentation is excellent for business. Good business strategy means more sales but in Nepal’s case, it means higher revenues within vertical demographies as opposed to sales across multiple horizontal segments. To put matters in perspective, the demography that reads Himal Media products is the single largest minority in Nepal – the urbane, sophisticated, metropolitan elite. By extension of this fact, the liberal ideals that Himal Media aspires to represent, are an anathema to most segments of Nepali polity; especially to the Maoists’ who are accustomed to killing scribes that are out of synch with the Prachanda Path’s worldview.

Also, Himal Media’s portrait is incomplete without due mention of its most polarizing and controversial co-owner, Mr. Kanak Mani Dixit. Although it was Kanak’s older brother, Kunda, who bore witness to yesterday’s Maoist aggression, it is Kanak Dixit who is on record for insinuating a Maoist defeat at the CA elections - “the political party that gets the largest number of votes” would have to “carry along all political forces including the Maoists in the running of the government….”

Kanak’s writing (at the time), was widely perceived as regurgitated rhetoric, based on flawed Indian intelligence. His words may have been overlooked by his dinner guests Pushpa Dahal, Baburam Bhattarai and their wives, but many staunch Maoists’ are known to have taken exception to Kanak’s partial stance. Kanak may have been the greatest of Maoist allies for dealing with the King but his partial brand of advocacy during the CA elections is certain to have diminished his standing with the Maoists, compromised his personal independence, and undermined the independence of the organization he leads - Himal Media.

Further, the intelligence upon which Kanak Dixit’s pre-CA position is purported to have been based, is the same intelligence (if one can call it that) which had the Nepali Congress resting on its laurels during the run up to elections. When the expected election outcome did not materialize, the NC’s emissary to the US, Dr. Suresh Raj Chalise, is reported to have spent time, hopping from one think tank to another, explaining what a great job the NC had done in mainstreaming the Maoists.

The rest is history. The Maoists delivered a sweeping victory at the Constituent Assembly elections and Dr. Chalise’s Ambassadorship to the US has been terminated by the Maoist-led government. So much for Kanak’s insinuation that the NC would come out on top and Dr. Chalise’s dreams of a mainstreamed Maoist Party. So much for the excuses that various Himal Media outlets made in support of creating space for the “less radical” Maoists.

As with every opportunity presented before them, the Maoists took what they were given, milked the situation for everything it was worth and have conveniently moved on. It was gross oversight on Himal Media’s part for hoping that Maoist goodwill may still be pending for services rendered (by Himal Media) during the King’s time. The truth is, when it comes to the Maoist worldview, Himal Media is no different that any other organization in Nepal. Himal may have a record for being the most outspoken, but it also has a reputation for being the most elitist and partial to Indian whims. Neither reputation bodes well for Himal Media or its off-shoot businesses (for example, “Rato Bangala”) given the populist tone that Nepal’s Maoist government has successfully set.

The aftermath of the attack on Himal Media will likely expose another less known dimension of Himal Media – its proximity to the INGO and Donor community nexus. For example, in “Come Back, Ian" (published in the Nepali Times), Kanak Dixit made a heart rendering appeal to then UN Secretary General, Kofi Anan, to re-assign Ian Martin to Nepal as the head of UNMIN. Kofi obliged and in doing so, saved Ian Martin from being held accountable to the disgrace of a job that the UN did in East Timor. Ian Martin owes his position in Nepal, to Kanak Dixit.

The Maoists’ are well aware of this relationship and have waited just long enough to test the bonds between Himal Media and the UN in general. Although UNMIN is not MANDATED to comment on episodes like these, the criticism from other UN bodies will undoubtedly be sharp. The intensity of the criticisms forwarded is certain to be matched only by the leniency of the current government’s response. But, the point here is that the louder and more biting the criticism from Nepal's international well-wishers, the easier the attack on Himal Media will be for the Maoists and ultra-nationalists to stomach.

As unpleasant and distasteful as the attack on Himal Media was, this is the type of “lesson” that Nepalis need to learn over and over again. Day by day, the Maoists’ are growing bolder and more calculated as the opposition becomes weaker and more disorganized. The lines between progressive and regressive elements are being redrawn and where the middle ground once stood, is an empty, barren wasteland.

No one wants renewed conflict. No one wants more Nepalis to be butchered for any political party to come to power. But the inevitable (and unspoken) reality is that there will come a time when dealing with the Maoists will necessarily imply the application of the only terms that the Maoists understand – force. Till that day rolls around, the only certainty is that there will be many more episodes like the one at Himal Media.

The Maoists’ will always find an excuse to rationalize what happened. Even if the Maoist leadership apologizes for the actions of its labor union, there is no guarantee that any Nepali journalist will ever again dare to publicly criticize the Maoists. With so many skeletons to hide, there is no certainty that deals which compromise freedom of speech, won’t be made in return for “protection.”

Avoiding this domino-style catastrophe is why it is absolutely imperative that the Himal Media experience be taken seriously and be opened up for public discourse. Such debate should include not just the documented hooliganism of the Maoist labor union but also any real grievances the Maoists may have against Himal Media. Nepal’s government should take a democratic approach to dealing with this issue, should feel the pulse of the Nepali majority and for a change, should rely less on internationally driven sensation and more on addressing the root causes behind incidents like the one at Himal Media.

“Rs 250 billion as royalty from 10,000 MW”

2008-12-21T10:37:00.000+05:45

(Courtesy: Ratna Sansar Shrestha)

In the presence of Prime Minister Dahal last Friday, during the inauguration of 6^th AGM of CNI, Dr Shankar Sharma, former vice chair of National Planning Commission announced that “Nepal will earn Rs 250 billion as royalty of 10,000 MW even under existing law of Nepal”- (he said in Nepali “2 saya 50 arba rupaiya”). This is not correct at all. During the power summit of 2006 TN Thakur of PTC India did his best to mislead Nepali populace by announcing that Nepal can earn IC Rs 10,000 crore (NRs 160 billion) by exporting 10,000 MW electricity from plants built with Indian investment. I published an article refuting his statement in Kantipur on 13^th Kartik last year. Realizing that he wouldn’t be reading an article in the vernacular daily, I got another article published on the same vein in the Kathmandu Post on 25^th Paush last year. Then some half-wit went overboard and said Nepal will earn Rs 25,000 (250 billion) crore by exporting 10,000 MW in a program in Patna couple of months back. I earnestly hope that Dr Sharma is not inspired by these numbers.

Because, under the extant Electricity Act, 1992, capacity royalty is Rs 100 per kW and energy royalty is 2%, at the rate of which Nepal will earn a total royalty of Rs 4.9 billion only if the hydropower projects are able to achieve plant factor of 50% and sold at US 6 ¢. This number is lower by a magnitude compared to the one he has quoted. I take it that discerning readers are aware that NEA is able to achieve only 33% plant factor and in which case the royalty earning will go down to Rs 3.6 billion only.

Under the Electricity Bill the proposed capacity royalty is Rs 400 per kW and energy royalty is 7.5%, at which rate Nepal will earn total royalty of Rs 18.78 billion only at 50% plant factor. Even at the proposed higher rate for royalties Nepal’s earning from royalty will be very far from what he has quoted.

Even if Nepal was to levy 100% of the electricity sales revenue as royalty (ridiculous and impossible), Nepal will receive only Rs 197 billion – still not quite Rs 250 billion. The electricity will have to be sold at US 7.6 ¢ and cent percent of the sales proceed will have to be charged as royalty to achieve royalty revenue of the level he has mentioned. Nobody will disagree that this is a outrageous proposition and Nepal will never be able to levy royalty at this level. In other words the royalty rate will have to be Rs 8.65 per kWh (unit) in order for Nepal to earn as royalty Rs 250 billion. Under present market condition this is impossible feat.

Sometime back Professor Dr Ram Manohar Shrestha also came up with similar astounding numbers about potential royalty revenue for Nepal and I did point out his error (over estimation), which is published in my blog ( HYPERLINK "http://ratnasansar.blogspot.com/" \o "blocked::http://ratnasansar.blogspot.com/" http://ratnasansar.blogspot.com/), in order to deconstruct the myth that is being perpetuated.

Nepali Polity: A Waning Pseudo-Democracy with No Real Alternatives

2008-12-17T08:31:00.006+05:45

(Courtesy: el Zorro)

Whether the Maoists’ have the capacity to last through Nepal’s constitution-making process is turning into a big question. With every passing day and every emerging episode of Maoist mischief, this government’s days in office appear limited. The only saving grace for the Maoists’ (unfortunately), is that their opposition is held in such contempt that even with all the high handedness in the world, the Maoists’ still remain the best of the worst.

The base argument to topple Nepal’s Maoist-led government is simple: Cutting off heads, assassinating surrendered combatants, murdering political opponents, then threatening and intimidating the opposition vote-bank into submission is not synonymous with a democratic rise to power.

For anyone who may still be confused, it was a sustained campaign of violence (for ten years running) that earned the Maoists’ the political currency they possess today – NOT the CA elections. Further, the maintenance of the Maoists’ current power-base requires that the perceived threat of violence be maintained at all times. So, “Prime Minister” Dahal’s rant about a reversion to arms (which he later claimed was grossly misinterpreted journalism) was much less a slip of his tongue than a reminder to the depleted Nepali psyche that violence is imminent - unless the Maoists’ have their way.

The constant fear of a return to violence is what the Maoists’ have always leveraged to keep their critics at bay. The idea that the Nepali people are being held hostage to peace on the Maoists’ terms may have been too conservative a view for Nepal’s liberals to stomach a year ago but thankfully, times have changed.

Given what the Maoists’ have demonstrated while in power, it would be criminal for anyone to continue insisting on their democratic intent (or to keep alluding to the Maoists’ internal struggle) as an excuse for why the Maoists’ deserve a chance. The initial insistence on goodwill towards the Maoists’ may have originated from curiosity of the unknown but any insistence that persists today, most certainly originates from a fear of the known. To put matters plainly, what Nepali people know, is that the Maoists’ will not hesitate to kill to make their point.

Owing to these painstakingly slow realizations, the days when Nepal’s self declared “civil society” apologists and human rights defenders would shield the Maoists’ against criticism, are coming to an end. The days when rubbing shoulders with the Maoists’ was considered a fashion statement for the ultra-liberal (and the wide-eyed Nepalis abroad), is also nearing its end. Pretty soon, the Maoists’ are not going to be a “cool association” and youngsters and grown-ups alike are going to have to make some tough choices.

The reality is that making excuses for the Maoists’ is turning into a full time job – a profession that is not without ethical consequences or moral hazards. For example, the Maoists’ kidnapped and murdered a civilian (Kishor Shrestha) from Kathmandu, held the individual in a UN monitored cantonment and then murdered the man. No action has yet been taken although the guilty party has been identified as a Maoist Commander. Any takers to defend the continuation of Maoist impunity? There used to be plenty when Gyanendra was still around.

As another example, under this Maoist government, a total of 349 criminal court cases from across Nepal were recently declared null and void. These cases the Maoists’ claim, were politically motivated and thus, have to be nullified because they implicate almost the entire Maoist leadership in some way, shape or form. Any signs of “brave,” democracy-loving Supreme Court advocates who would dare to check the Maoists’ infringement upon the Nepali Judiciary’s independence? No. Not a single advocate in the same spot where an "army" of advocates once stood to shine in the international media's spotlight and "defy" an autocratic Gyanendra!!

Well, Nepal has a bigger problem now - the Maoists plus all the middle ranks of the Royalists are in the same corner. But this situation apparently, is not as grave a threat to democracy as Gyanendra so there's no point in risking one's life for few seconds of air time on Nepal TV!! Also, there's an unspoken factor that every Maoist opponent must constantly consider: Gyanendra's henchmen may have gone around and censored news papers, limited freedom of speech and curbed freedom of assembly, but the Maoists' will hold nothing back. They will simply eliminate that which they perceive as a threat and no Supreme Court Advocate wants to make the Maiosts' black list. The net result is, it's the Maoists' way, all the way.

With the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, there is a never-ending litany of examples of not-so-smart ideas that the academically bright (and the practically devoid) were manipulated into adopting. But the problem moving forward is far less that mistakes were made and much more that people who made them, are unwilling to publicly rectify their wrongs. (There are terms that describe persons of this temperament – unprincipled, immoral, shameless, cowards, etc.).

It is precisely because of a select few who prefer to reinterpret the past to fit their worldviews (rather than admitting their mistakes and changing course), that Nepalis are without the moral impetus necessary to facilitate lasting change and the emergence of real alternatives. The Nepali Congress under Girija Prasad Koirala, supported by his network of cronies at home and abroad, is not a real alternative to the current set up. The Maoist off-shoot Upendra Yadav, is after all, a Maoist at heart. He has likely killed with the “best” of them – not a real alternative either. The same goes for most if not all of the faces that have “graced” Nepali politics over the past two decades.

So the issue at hand is less that the Maoists’ murdered their way to power and more that those with the moral authority to stand up to the Maoists are either too afraid, or too proud (or both), to admit that they were duped. Until the truth behind how badly Nepal’s political and academic elites were used and abused by the Maoists’ enters the domain of public discourse, there will be no platform for real, lasting change.

To put matters plainly, until this process of introspection and self-realization (and hopefully remorse) has taken its course, Nepalis are better off living under the Maoists’ than reverting to life under Girija Koirala’s Nepali Congress. And this simple calculus, despite everything the Maoists’ are doing to subvert democracy in Nepal, is why the Maoists’ will outlast a “broader democratic alliance,” and any other shenanigan that a desperate, power-hungry and disorganized opposition, can dream up.

Practice What You Preach

2008-12-15T08:12:00.002+05:45

(Courtesy: Dr. Hari Bansha Dulal)

Last month's terrorist attacks in Mumbai shocked everyone. Nearly two hundred innocent men and women lost their precious lives and many more were injured. In anger over Mumbai attacks, while the nation was grieving the loss, Indian media and politicians, as usual, tirelessly vilified and pointed the finger at Pakistan. Blaming the usual suspect, Pakistan, began even before evidences were gathered and the lone surviving terrorist was interrogated.

Although the notoriety of Pakistan's Intelligence Agency, ISI in providing aid and comfort to Islamofascists that want to inflict harm on India cannot be denied based on its past activities, India should also take responsibility for its own security lapses and failure to address issues that are fuelling the rise of Islamic fundamentalism in the Indian subcontinent. Is it because of India's rigid posture on Kashmiri issues or is it due to India's inability to lift the status of millions of Muslims that are at the bottom of the pyramid, to whom, the prosperity of the last two decades has failed to bring about any real changes? What actually is it that is luring young men and women in Indian subcontinent towards radical Islam?

By attacking landmarks in the financial capital of India, Mumbai, jihadist juggernauts wanted to do two things: expose India's vulnerabilities and slow down India's economic progress. The recent terrorist attacks in Indian subcontinent also signal shift in venue of global terrorism. Lately, South Asia has become a focal point for terrorism directed against the western nations. By targeting westerners in Mumbai, Islamic radicals wanted to send a message about shift in venue for holy jihad. It clearly shows how the trends in terrorism continue to shift from the Middle East to South Asia. With Afghanistan slipping into chaos and Nepal on freefall, jihadists have more than needed space to operate in South Asia. If terrorism is to be wiped out from South Asia, along with Pakistan, India too, has substantial homework to do.

First and foremost, India should work on its definition of “terrorism.” For India, groups that are waging armed struggle for the liberation of Kashmir from Pakistani soil are terrorists, and it wants Pakistani government to go after them, but when it comes to India's turn to act, it simply looks the other way. While India blames Pakistan for providing aid and comfort to the anti-Indian elements, India's own record is not as clean as it wants others to believe. It is an open secret about where the Maoists ideologues, who raised arms against the state, and whom Indian government unilaterally branded as terrorists lived for the most part of the decade long insurgency. The Maoists movement that brought Nepal to its knees would not have been succeeded without India's generosity. India not only provided the Maoists a safe heaven to operate, but also forced democratic forces to bed with them, whose ugly repercussions are unfolding slowly.

India's soft corner for those that raise arms against Nepali state did not end with its generosity towards the Maoists. It continues to provide safe heaven to armed secessionist groups that want to disintegrate Nepal. How is Pakistan's support to Jihadists that want to free Kashmir different from India's turning blind eyes on groups that have raised arms to seek secession? Armed struggle in Nepal will not survive without Indian benevolence.

What India as a nation should understand is that, it can only progress the way it wants to, when South Asia as a regions is, stable and peaceful. It cannot and will not remain insulated from the pouring in of negative externalities if its neighbors fail. It should, thus, stop providing safe heaven to groups that raise arms against its neighbors. Only then, India will have moral authority to ask Pakistan to go after the groups that carry out anti-Indian activities in Pakistani soil.

If India continues to provide safe heaven to the armed groups that raise arms against Nepal, armed struggle in Nepal will never wane. Bunch of incompetent but ambitious individuals that lack patience and caliber to win the hearts and mind of Nepali people through peaceful democratic means will keep on waging wars in the name of fighting oppression. Looking at honeymoon period of the Maoist government, it becomes evident that rhetoric alone is not enough to bring changes. For change to come, the rulers should have a vision and competence. Is India ready to be held accountable, if the so called revolutionaries, to whom it provides safe heaven, fail to deliver, like the Maoists, and bring about positive changes?

The Maoists in Nepal had an excellent opportunity bring about changes. There was no need to create rogue institution like Young Communist League (YCL). They had already created a political space for themselves. The defeat of stalwarts of the United Marxist Leninist Party (UML) at the hands of the obscure Maoists figures clearly showed that the UML's grassroots operatives had mass-migrated to the Maoists Party. Instead of trying to capitalize their gains and focusing on providing services to the people, the Maoists remained glued to their red book, which states terror as a method social control.

With the honeymoon period over, the excitement generated by Maoists' revolution has dissipated. With waning of euphoria, Puspa Kamal Dahal finds himself under fire. His next step? If worst comes, step down and wreck havoc till the next government is overwhelmed. The Nepali politics is sure to get confrontational in days to come. The way things are unfolding, it appears that, we will once again witness a bloody conflict, whereby the very same people who declared the Maoists terrorists will be at the helm of affairs, and the Maoists at offensive. Who gains from this, if this is to really happen? Not Nepali people for sure!

India, when it comes to its own security, aggressively calls for wiping out groups that act against India's national security, but when it is India's turn to reciprocate, its record has been pretty dismal. If nothing, what India can and should learn from the failure of the Maoist government in Nepal is that, there are tons of incompetent and ambitious politicians in Nepal, who are ready to wage war against the state. How do you identify true revolutionaries that can change the face of Nation from phonies, who pose as revolutionaries and wage wars against the state to forward their political agendas? And, will the justification for armed struggle ever get over if a neighbor keeps on rewarding armed insurgencies targeted at its neighbor?

There will always be complaints about injustice caused by the state. No country has ever been fully able to satisfy its citizens. But that cannot simply be the reason for armed struggle. India should force various armed groups that are waging wars against its neighbor to shut down their shops if it really wants Pakistan to go after jihadists that are waging holy war against India.

India cannot win the war against terrorism on its own. If it really wants to win this war, it has to stop the blame game and cooperate with its neighbors.

Promised Respite from Load Shedding

2008-12-09T20:09:00.006+05:45

(Courtesy: Ratna Sansar Shrestha)

On December 7, 2008, public relations director of Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) declared that electricity users in Nepal will be facing load shedding for next 5 years. And, as NEA had proclaimed in its latest annual report, that “it is envisioned that Nepal would be power surplus by year 2013/14,” one is led to believe that the electricity users will have to suffer for the next 5 years only and after that there will be no load shedding. What a relief! In the capacity of a consumer suffering from the vagaries of the load shedding, one would wish luck to NEA so that it will be able to keep its promise.

The reason for the respite given in the annual report was the implementation of projects, totaling 525 MW by NEA and 281 MW by the independent power producers (IPPs) by 2013/14[1]. Following is the list of projects that NEA envisages to be commissioned by 2013/14:

Table 1: Projects to be commissioned by NEA by 2013/14

Similarly, NEA expects following projects to be commissioned by IPPs by 2013/14:

Table 2: Projects to be commissioned by IPPs by 2013/14

In this manner, between NEA and IPPs, Nepal’s power system will see an addition of 806 MW by 2013/14. After the commissioning of Middle Marsyangdi this month Nepal’s current total installed capacity will be 687.38 (617.38 plus 70) MW and after the implementation of the above mentioned projects, the total anticipated generation capacity in the system will be 1493.38 MW by 2013/14.

Let’s now make an attempt to examine if NEA will be able to keep the promise. According to the load forecast of NEA the peak demand in 2013/14 will be 1271.7 MW and as the total capacity in the system will be 1493 MW, superficially it would seem that there will not be any need for load shedding in that year. However, even the ordinary consumers (without understanding the technicalities of electricity generation) have come to learn the hard way that during the dry season (when the demand for power reaches its peak) hydropower plants do not generate to its full capacity. Therefore, in the promised year 2013/14, the peak demand will be 1271.7 MW while with the total installed capacity of 1493.38, NEA will be able to generate only in the order of 7-8 hundred MW during the dry season. Therefore, it is rather obvious that the promised respite from load shedding in that year is almost a pipe dream due to an anticipated shortage of over 400 MW during the dry season.

Moreover, it also needs to be remembered that commissioning of 525 MW by NEA by that year will depend on timely completion of the implementation of the specified projects. NEA, unfortunately, does not have a track record of completing its hydropower projects without incurring significant time overrun since the days of Kulekhani which becomes clear from the following table.

Table 3: Delayed commissioning of projects

Furthermore, the above table also anticipates addition of 281 MW by the private sector. For this purpose the private investors need to able to execute power purchase agreements (PPAs) with NEA. From the information available till now, no PPA has been signed with any of the projects listed above. In view of this the likelihood of adding 806 MW by 2013/14 is rather remote.

To conclude, it is absolutely clear that even if the projects anticipated to be commissioned by NEA are indeed completed, the load shedding problem will continue to dog the electricity users due to the anticipated shortfall of over 400 MW in 2013/14. If the projects included in the list fail to be commissioned in time, the magnitude of load shedding even in 2013/14 will be higher. This indicates that there is something seriously wrong at various levels like, comprehension of the problem, planning to mitigate the problem and also in the implementation of the projects.

[1] Source: Fiscal Year 2007/08 – a Year in Review of NEA.

Nepotism Continues in the New "Maoist" Nepal

2008-12-08T21:36:00.002+05:45

(Courtesy: Anonymous Message to NepaliPerspectives - Facts verified through independent sources)

Despite the high-flying populist rhetoric and promise of a "New Nepal," the facts paint a very different portrait of the Nepal that currently exists. The Maoists appear to have wholeheartedly adopted their predecessors' practice of exercising nepotism, without repercussion, without accountability and with complete impunity.

Given the facts listed below, the Maoist Party appears increasingly like Girija Prasad Koirala's Nepali Congress and much less like the stalwarts of progressive politics the Maoists portray themselves to be. From the ashes of the Shah Dynasty, appears a "Dahal-Bhattarai Dynasty" in the making. In the Maoists' "New Nepal," the only qualification one needs to be in power it appears, is blood relations with a Maoist leader - if this isn't feudalism at its best, what is?

More to the point, is this ultimately what 14,000 Nepalis had to die for (and over a 100,000 families had to be displaced for)? Is this what the so-called Maoist revolution was all about - the rise to power for a handful of of power-hungry elite? It certainly appears that this this is the end of the much hyped Maoist revolution, or as many refer to it, as the Maoists' terror campaign to usurp State power.

The kin of Maoist strong man and his second in command who currently enjoy employment at the expense of Nepali and International tax payers are listed below:

Pushpa Kamal Dahal's (a.k.a Prachanda) Family Members in Positions of Power:

Samir Dahal (Under-Secretary of The PM's office), son of Prachanda's younger brother Narayan Dahal.
Ganga Dahal (Officer of the PM's office), Prachanda's younger daughter (who is also an Indian citizen).
Gangaram Dahal (un-appointed foreign relations officer), Prachanda's own brother
Renu Pathak (CA member), Prachanda's daughter
Arjun Pathak (Officer of CA), Prachanda's son-in-law
Prakash Dahal (Prime Minister's PA/accountant), Prachanda's son, salary equal to the Under-Secretary.
Narayan Dahal (CA member), Prachanda's nephew.
Thakur Bhatta (Prachanda's brother-in-law), Another son-in-law (contractor of Chitwan Cantonment)

Dr. Baburam Bhattarai's Relatives in Positions of Power:

Hisila Yami (Tourist Minister), Baburam's wife.
Taranaj Pandey (PM's adviser), Baburam's nephew.
Praya Yami (National Planning Commission), Hisila's older sister
Timila Yami (Chairperson of Drinking Water Project), Hisila's older sister
Chirik Shova (member of Kathmandu Drinking Water), Baburam's older sister
Baburam's younger brother (Tariff -fixing Committee), Head of Kathmandu Drinking water.